NBA Daily Picks

[aunty jack]

i'd take 2 out of 3 any day of the week.

[kobstopa]

i'd take 2 out of 3 any day of the week.

tx man

[big cheyo]

wow hitting those internationals pretty nice

[kobstopa]

Sun at Sparks
Poor defense and bad turns over had hurt LA and own a hugh marginal loss. But they sure can shot
with an average 8 x '3s made per game, also around 48% FG per game. Unlike LA, CT earns their production from
inside fouls, pressure the ball and force turns, go for easy transition baskets.


Prediction Sun 83 Sparks 72

Take Connecticut -2.5

79-70 sun

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]30892[/ATTACH]

[Bell Curves]

Wow, 18 points for SA? They played a pretty close game in SA, and SA is pretty decent road team. Minn should win here by a decent amount, but by 18?

Also, I like New York and was going to bet, but the early move on Chicago really confused me.

[ManBearPig]

I wouldn't let early line movement confuse you...generally from what I've seen it's minor so early. Unless someone like RAS has taken a side the line movement doesn't indicate any strong direction, especially if it's just flip-flopping. With that being said I've been tracking line movements on sides and totals all season and have seen some interesting trends that I'd like to delve into more because there are some things in there I'd like to explore.

[kobstopa]

Wow, 18 points for SA? They played a pretty close game in SA, and SA is pretty decent road team. Minn should win here by a decent amount, but by 18?

Also, I like New York and was going to bet, but the early move on Chicago really confused me.

Adam is out again, minn is +10 pts at home & I think their back court are over size & far more physical than the stars. Also they are confident & riding on along winning streak.

[big cheyo]

so any thoughts on the international game for tonight?

[kobstopa]

so any thoughts on the international game for tonight?

bad traffic was running late,

_____________________________
Russia vs China
I think Russia should have a good win as they are raw talents, the Chinese seemed to have their
strength back all a sudden + motivated to win a game at home some how.

Russia -2.5
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Australia Boomers vs Angola
Now this is an interesting one, the Aussie are solid with core young and veteran NBL + college players but have such as short time to play together. Angola is the team that Charles Barkley had been looking for since his DreamTeam day. They have been played together for along time, like 5 years & they have won like 10 champions. Having said that, half court and defense oriented is their style
they have defeated Russian team recently & won one against the Chinese as well.

Take Under 142.5 Points
_____________________________

[kobstopa]

bad traffic was running late,

_____________________________
Russia vs China
I think Russia should have a good win as they are raw talents, the Chinese seemed to have their
strength back all a sudden + motivated to win a game at home some how.

Russia -2.5 Russia won by 1
_____________________________
Australia Boomers vs Angola
Now this is an interesting one, the Aussie are solid with core young and veteran NBL + college players but have such as short time to play together. Angola is the team that Charles Barkley had been looking for since his DreamTeam day. They have been played together for along time, like 5 years & they have won like 10 champions. Having said that, half court and defense oriented is their style
they have defeated Russian team recently & won one against the Chinese as well.

Take Under 142.5 Points Angola score 80 + pt on the Aussie with a rain of 3's despite a full court press
of defense
_____________________________

0/2

[Bell Curves]

What's up with Storm tomorrow? Why did it open at -3 and is only -4.5?

[Bell Curves]

Haha 1 point by Chicago in entire 4Q makes for an easy 2H under win.
Silly RAS and his Chicago +6 pick made me not play NY -6.

[kobstopa]

Haha 1 point by Chicago in entire 4Q makes for an easy 2H under win.
Silly RAS and his Chicago +6 pick made me not play NY -6.

49 59 NY won by 10, I est by 11. so that a close projection, but went under though.

[kobstopa]

Both unders are solid plays here.

[kobstopa]

Stankovic Continental Champions' Cup


get ready people, this should be interesting

[Bell Curves]

Are the Rosters the same as when the teams played in Haining(except NZ)?

[kobstopa]

Are the Rosters the same as when the teams played in Haining(except NZ)?

I think it is, important to note:
-chinese team is desperate to win one at home - could mean 2 things; very physical & force low scoring, 2nd - the margin will be sharper; they have a pretty good home crowd
-NZ will be without their scoring machine; Kirk Penney + one other as both off to Madrid now. The team will be made up mainly of NZ Breakers players - an NBL team which is a high scoring & upper tempo team + 2 additional youngsters.
-Angola is alot more athletic, physical than one led to believe, they easily as good as last season NCAA Kansas or Ohio State but far more polish & mature with their game plan.

[kobstopa]

_________________________________
Indiana at Tulsa

Take under 144.5
_________________________________
Connecticut at Seattle
CT last game was at LA, their combine score was 149 & LA is an upper tempo and a high scoring catalyst team in the league.
But against a defensive oriented storm, we won't be seeing a total above 140 points here, due to its physical nature the FG % will be lower; both will go to low post & half-court style.

Recent Trends
Connecticut:
Under is 6-2 in CONN last 8 Fri. games.

Seattle:
Under is 10-4 in SEA last 14 home games.

Take under 147.5

_________________________________

[burgi]

Indiana ML seems solid play tonight...

[kobstopa]

Indiana ML seems solid play tonight...

99% sure to win for 19% return, yes

[Bell Curves]

Why do you like Indiana under? Last time these two played they put up 156.

[kobstopa]

Why do you like Indiana under? Last time these two played they put up 156.

i'm seeing Tulsa is averaged mid 60's in their last 5 (except one against SEA last one) while Ind on the road is looked pretty solid with their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if they opt to go more minutes with their 2nd unit & rest starters for a fresh leg as there are 3 quality teams coming up.

[Bell Curves]

I just watched the Tulsa/Indiana game for some reason. Here is my take on Tulsa's offensive strategy:
1. Dribble to the top of the key
2. Stay there for 15-20 seconds
3. If ball isn't stolen by then, attempt to feed the post
4. If ball still hasn't been stolen, kick out and jack up a three from the NBA three point line.

That's the bulk of their offense, but they occasionally get bailed out by a foul call.

[kobstopa]

_________________________________
Indiana at Tulsa

Take under 144.5
_________________________________
Connecticut at Seattle
CT last game was at LA, their combine score was 149 & LA is an upper tempo and a high scoring catalyst team in the league.
But against a defensive oriented storm, we won't be seeing a total above 140 points here, due to its physical nature the FG % will be lower; both will go to low post & half-court style.

Recent Trends
Connecticut:
Under is 6-2 in CONN last 8 Fri. games.

Seattle:
Under is 10-4 in SEA last 14 home games.

Take under 147.5

_________________________________

good god, i'm 0-2 today, man that's really bad.....

[kobstopa]

_____________________________
New York at Washington
In their last game, NY let Mystics shoot 50% FG & barely contained them till a late game pulled away
but since they have improved defense which imposed on Chicago with a Win 59-49 & held them to a
record 1 point 4th qrt.

NY -4.5
Take under 147.5

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Tulsa at San Antonio
A back to back game for Tulsa, a rebounding from losing streak for SA & back at home
this could be a perfect storm for star

San Antonio -14.5
Under 150.5
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[burgi]

Hmmm, I will play the 2 ML in parlay

[Bell Curves]

New York at Washington In their last game, NY let Mystics shoot 50% FG & barely contained them till a late game pulled away but since they have improved defense which imposed on Chicago with a Win 59-49 & held them to a record 1 point 4th qrt.

NY -4.5
Take under 147.5
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Tulsa at San Antonio A back to back game for Tulsa, a rebounding from losing streak for SA & back at home this could be a perfect storm for star

San Antonio -14.5
Under 150.5
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Man, I like NY and loaded up on -1.5, but the bet seems so obvious that every single person in the world is going to be on them.
So it's really weird the line hasn't moved to something like -6.5 yet.

[MrXYZ]

I'm on NY as well. The Mystics haven't played in almost a week & it's hard to see them shooting 50% again. It's going to be another close game, good luck!

[kobstopa]

Man, I like NY and loaded up on -1.5, but the bet seems so obvious that every single person in the world is going to be on them.
So it's really weird the line hasn't moved to something like -6.5 yet.

it was opened -3.5 & went to -4.5
but this could be the booker's angle:
1. NY has this alternate 1W 1Loss & 2W & L - therefore it's looked like a due for a loss
2. Similar pattern for Wash but at a 4L W or 5L W & due for a win
3. in their last meeting 75-71 NY won but barely

but I'll take the bait & settle on NY -4.5

[Bell Curves]

it was opened -3.5 & went to -4.5 but this could be the booker's angle: 1. NY has this alternate 1W 1Loss & 2W & L - therefore it's looked like a due for a loss 2. Similar pattern for Wash but at a 4L W or 5L W & due for a win 3. in their last meeting 75-71 NY won but barely but I'll take the bait & settle on NY -4.5

It opened at -1.5 on pinny, so book must really want NY money. Come to think of it, who the heck would back Washington?
So, I really hope it ends up like the Indiana/Tulsa game, where the public killed the books.

[kobstopa]

It opened at -1.5 on pinny, so book must really want NY money. Come to think of it, who the heck would back Washington?
So, I really hope it ends up like the Indiana/Tulsa game, where the public killed the books.

This is the thing & depend how you look at it, alot of the time when I cap the game I go by determine the best team to win; examine various factor such as its match up, the ref, recent games data, possible game plans,news & events around it etc. Line moments is a secondary factor as it had been exploited by the wiseguy & bookers themselves by bet & void; they will let public win a minority of time as part of overall bet lines release, the idea is not to have an obvious pattern for people to see it; so there're time it looks too good to be true but it is true and that obvious, but one needs to keep it in a simple prospective without getting caught with abundance of info or over analyze it, a good example also were NBA's; public won with Boston, Miami & LA, NYK at home against sub .500 teams

[Bell Curves]

This is the thing & depend how you look at it, alot of the time when I cap the game I go by determine the best team to win; examine various factor such as its match up, the ref, recent games data, possible game plans,news & events around it etc. Line moments is a secondary factor as it had been exploited by the wiseguy & bookers themselves by bet & void; they will let public win a minority of time as part of overall bet lines release, the idea is not to have an obvious pattern for people to see it; so there're time it looks too good to be true but it is true and that obvious, but one needs to keep it in a simple prospective without getting caught with abundance of info or over analyze it, a good example also were NBA's; public won with Boston, Miami & LA, NYK at home against sub .500 teams

Ok, hopefully NY plays well tonight, and doesn't blow an 18 point lead like Seattle did.

[Bell Curves]

Ok, hopefully NY plays well tonight, and doesn't blow an 18 point lead like Seattle did.

Mystics played wayyyyyy better than expected. Good thing live betting was available and I bought out before too much damage was done.

[kobstopa]

Mystics played wayyyyyy better than expected. Good thing live betting was available and I bought out before too much damage was done.

too many inconsistent, i am not touching NY/Was game any more
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New York at Washington
In their last game, NY let Mystics shoot 50% FG & barely contained them till a late game pulled away
but since they have improved defense which imposed on Chicago with a Win 59-49 & held them to a
record 1 point 4th qrt.

NY -4.5
Take under 147.5

_____________________________
Tulsa at San Antonio
A back to back game for Tulsa, a rebounding from losing streak for SA & back at home
this could be a perfect storm for star

San Antonio -14.5
Under 150.5
_____________________________[/quote]
1/4 day, the stock market's ripple has hitting here too now. Luckily I hit a few mlb so almost even out.