Curious Season Thread

[EasyHustlin]

I know you guys think I'm a big pain in the neck but I've been killing first inning plays. But, I do it a bit differently than you guys do. I don't just blindly take the highest odds in each time slot. I build a spreadsheet for each team with these columns: % of games team scored in first inning % of games team allowed a score in first inning Then I put the matchup for each game side by side and add these columns to each matchup: (% of games visitor team scored in first inning + % of games home team allowed a run in first inning) / 2 (% of games visitor team allowed a score in first inning + % of games home team scored a run in first inning) /2 Then I add the last two columns together. That gives a total % for score in first inning. Then I add another column by subtracting the total % for score in first inning from 100%. That gives a total % for no score in first inning. Then I take the line for each game for score in first inning YES and multiply by total % for score in first inning. I do the same thing for NO and multiply the line by total % for no score in first inning. Anything that is greater than 50% is a play. This takes a lot of work and I don't have time to post it, but you can easily do this yourself.

Same thing but with different stats.

[curious]

Games (I'll post Q and H later on tomorrow. I m making the bet size = probability of win % x 1 unit. The probability I calculate and no I won't give you the formula.)

Golden State -220 ML 6.6 to win 3 Win +3
Houston ?? ML ?? to win 7 Win +7
Dallas -110 ML 2.2 to win 2 Win +2
Charlotte -165 ML 4.13 to win 2.5 Win +2.5
Milwaukee -125 ML 1.25 to win 1 Loss -1
Minnesota +115 ML 1 to win 1.15 Win +1.15
Memphis -240 ML 8.4 to win 3.5 Win +3.5
Orlando -220 ML 2.2 to win 1 Win +1
Utah -400 ML 16 to win 4 Loss -16
Sacramento -110 ML 1.1 to win 1

Loss -1.1

7-3 +3

[curious]

Q and H

Q 1
Houston to win 7 Win +7
Milwaukee to win 1 Loss -1.2
Minnesota 1 Loss -1
Memphis to win 3.5 Loss -5
Orlando to win 2.2 Loss -3.5

Q2
Houston to win 7 Loss -12
Detroit to win 2.5 Loss -2.5
Memphis to win 3.5 Win +3.5
Orlando to win 2.2 Win +2.2

Q3
Houston to win 7 Loss -12
Charlotte to win 2.5 Tie
Atlanta 1 Loss -1
New Orleans to win 1 Loss -1.5
Sacramento to win 1 Win +1

Q4
Dallas to win 2 Win +2
New Jersey 1 Loss -1
Utah to win 4 Loss -6

1st Half
Houston to win 7 Loss -12
Minnesota 1 Loss -1
Memphis to win 3.5 Win +3.5
Orlando to win 2.2 Win +2.2

2nd Half
Charlotte to win 2.5 Loss -3.5
New Jersey 1 Loss -1
Utah to win 4 Loss -5

Lost 48 units

Well, i'm out for awhile

[curious]

I'm going to be out for a while. Don't know when I'll be back, or if.

[TakeIt]

Lost 48 units

Well, i'm out for awhile

you were just getting started. why leave now? oh, is it the minus 48 units? don't let a little loss chase yourself away.

[play]

please, don't stop, interesting thread!

[curious]

I don't have time to track and play the Q bets. So, I'm going to use game bets only. If someone wants to track and play the Q and H using the progression, feel free.

Boston -250 4.5 to win 1.8 units
Orlando -400 7.2 to win 1.8 units
New York Knicks +400 1 to win 4 units
Chicago Bulls -430 19 to win 4.5 units
Spurs -150 4.5 to win 3 units
Dallas to win 5 units (no line set, calculate the units to risk when the line is set)
Denver to win 5 units (no line set, calculate the units to risk when the line is set)

I won't be around much today, if at all

[SimonSayz]

Curious, by far the most interesting thread. Don't be gone for too long.

[TakeIt]

originally posted by Curious...I don't have time to track and play the Q bets. So, I'm going to use game bets only. If someone wants to track and play the Q and H using the progression, feel free.

if something is as profitable as you say it is, it would seem to me that you could find all the time in the world to track and play the bets...unless of course you're too busy making a living shooting craps.

[curious]

if something is as profitable as you say it is, it would seem to me that you could find all the time in the world to track and play the bets...unless of course you're too busy making a living shooting craps.

We posted these plays in the forum for two years. The record is there to see. It is very profitable.

Since you think I am a liar you should find another thread to post your inane ramblings in.

[TakeIt]

you said you had made a living playing craps. anyone with a brain knows this is nonsense. not to mention the fact it makes your handicapping advice look suspect. but who knows, maybe your handicapping advice is brilliant. but after one bad day, you're not going to play anymore. i think you're just looking for an excuse to go away. insane ramblings? if the shoe fits...

[Broken-Ear Glen]

take it just d1icked you...sorry

[chaseman]

if something is as profitable as you say it is, it would seem to me that you could find all the time in the world to track and play the bets...unless of course you're too busy making a living shooting craps.

Could you please stop disrupting those of us who are actually here to work together by cluttering up the thread? I'm fairly certain I've seen that you have your own thread. However some of us actually know that curious has been here on SBR for a while, and that he's a reputable individual. Thanks and good luck to you.

On to today--I looked at the 1Q and 1H stats for tonight's games, and here's what I've come up with.

For 1Q:
Orlando = +3.3 away/Cle -2.3 home
Boston = +3.2 away/Ind -0.2 home
Miami = +4.1 home/Nyk -1.0 away
Dallas = +4.1 home/Tor -2.5 away

For 1H
Orlando = +2.7 away/Cle -3.6 home
Dallas = +5.8 home/Tor -6.1 away

I have a question for you, curious: When you look at the stats on the teamrankings.com site, do you concentrate on the home/away stats or the overall 1Q stats for the teams? For instance--in the Milwaukee/Chicago game tonight--Milwaukee has overall better 1Q stats, but Chicago is better when you look at Chicago's home 1Q stats vs Milwaukee's away 1Q stats. Does that make sense?

[TakeIt]

Could you please stop disrupting those of us who are actually here to work together by cluttering up the thread? I'm fairly certain I've seen that you have your own thread. However some of us actually know that curious has been here on SBR for a while, and that he's a reputable individual.

you'e only as reputable as the advice you give.

you're correct. i have my own thread, and i'm losing my ass. down 35 units since i started posting. yet, i keep posting away. how many people on this site do that? keep posting their plays even though they're losing. what you see in 99% of the cases is people who post only when they're winning. once they start losing they disappear or come back with a new account.

that's the reality of sports betting. most people lose. i'm no exception. it's one of the toughest gambling games there is.

curious, on the other hand, has one horrible day and all of a sudden it's not worth his time to post plays anymore.

why do you think that is? it follows the same pattern.

no one is stopping you from following his martingale nonsense. go right ahead. but how long did you really think it would be before it blew up in his face?

[Dexter]

if something is as profitable as you say it is, it would seem to me that you could find all the time in the world to track and play the bets...unless of course you're too busy making a living shooting craps.

you said you had made a living playing craps. anyone with a brain knows this is nonsense. not to mention the fact it makes your handicapping advice look suspect. but who knows, maybe your handicapping advice is brilliant. but after one bad day, you're not going to play anymore. i think you're just looking for an excuse to go away. insane ramblings? if the shoe fits...

[curious]

Could you please stop disrupting those of us who are actually here to work together by cluttering up the thread? I'm fairly certain I've seen that you have your own thread. However some of us actually know that curious has been here on SBR for a while, and that he's a reputable individual. Thanks and good luck to you.

On to today--I looked at the 1Q and 1H stats for tonight's games, and here's what I've come up with.

For 1Q:
Orlando = +3.3 away/Cle -2.3 home
Boston = +3.2 away/Ind -0.2 home
Miami = +4.1 home/Nyk -1.0 away
Dallas = +4.1 home/Tor -2.5 away

For 1H
Orlando = +2.7 away/Cle -3.6 home
Dallas = +5.8 home/Tor -6.1 away

I have a question for you, curious: When you look at the stats on the teamrankings.com site, do you concentrate on the home/away stats or the overall 1Q stats for the teams? For instance--in the Milwaukee/Chicago game tonight--Milwaukee has overall better 1Q stats, but Chicago is better when you look at Chicago's home 1Q stats vs Milwaukee's away 1Q stats. Does that make sense?

I look at home and away

[Dexter]

you'e only as reputable as the advice you give.

you're correct. i have my own thread, and i'm losing my ass. down 35 units since i started posting. yet, i keep posting away. how many people on this site do that? keep posting their plays even though they're losing. what you see in 99% of the cases is people who post only when they're winning. once they start losing they disappear or come back with a new account.

that's the reality of sports betting. most people lose. i'm no exception. it's one of the toughest gambling games there is.

curious, on the other hand, has one horrible day and all of a sudden it's not worth his time to post plays anymore.

why do you think that is? it follows the same pattern.

no one is stopping you from following his martingale nonsense. go right ahead. but how long did you really think it would be before it blew up in his face?

im with you....i have winning and losing threads....i never stop posting. can care less what people on the internet think of me. i never claim to be a pro sports bettor like some people here do..lol

there are about 2 handfuls of people that keep accurate records from start to finish of a season...too many people care what their cyberspace reputation looks like.

[curious]

you'e only as reputable as the advice you give.

you're correct. i have my own thread, and i'm losing my ass. down 35 units since i started posting. yet, i keep posting away. how many people on this site do that? keep posting their plays even though they're losing. what you see in 99% of the cases is people who post only when they're winning. once they start losing they disappear or come back with a new account.

that's the reality of sports betting. most people lose. i'm no exception. it's one of the toughest gambling games there is.

curious, on the other hand, has one horrible day and all of a sudden it's not worth his time to post plays anymore.

why do you think that is? it follows the same pattern.

no one is stopping you from following his martingale nonsense. go right ahead. but how long did you really think it would be before it blew up in his face?

I wasn't playing martingale. All of the plays were written up before any of the games started and none of them were martingale.

You don't know what you are talking about.

[curious]

im with you....i have winning and losing threads....i never stop posting. can care less what people on the internet think of me. i never claim to be a pro sports bettor like some people here do..lol

there are about 2 handfuls of people that keep accurate records from start to finish of a season...too many people care what their cyberspace reputation looks like.

Please stay away from me. You have nothing useful to add, you just make up false bullshit like you have for several years. You claim that I make up shit, fine, you can claim whatever you want. I don't follow you around the internet starting bullshit with you. Just stay away from me.

[curious]

if something is as profitable as you say it is, it would seem to me that you could find all the time in the world to track and play the bets...unless of course you're too busy making a living shooting craps.

As I have said before I have not played craps for several years. When I used to play it, I won money from it. Not sure what this has to do with this thread, which is a sports betting thread.

Look crackhead, you don't know what the **** you are talking about, so go pursue your delusions somewhere else.

[curious]

Could you please stop disrupting those of us who are actually here to work together by cluttering up the thread? I'm fairly certain I've seen that you have your own thread. However some of us actually know that curious has been here on SBR for a while, and that he's a reputable individual. Thanks and good luck to you.

On to today--I looked at the 1Q and 1H stats for tonight's games, and here's what I've come up with.

For 1Q:
Orlando = +3.3 away/Cle -2.3 home
Boston = +3.2 away/Ind -0.2 home
Miami = +4.1 home/Nyk -1.0 away
Dallas = +4.1 home/Tor -2.5 away

For 1H
Orlando = +2.7 away/Cle -3.6 home
Dallas = +5.8 home/Tor -6.1 away

I like all of these plays.

I have to warn you that just looking at yearly to date figures seems to have broken down. We might also want to look at the last 10 days. That is why I want to take a break from Q and H, so I can figure out if looking at the last 10 days or so is more predictive than looking at the yearly figures.

[Dexter]

Please stay away from me. You have nothing useful to add, you just make up false bullshit like you have for several years. You claim that I make up shit, fine, you can claim whatever you want. I don't follow you around the internet starting bullshit with you. Just stay away from me.

you must have me confused with one of the other hundreds of members you have beefs with. all i ever said to you was that mentioning a win % with your style of betting is misleading.

i NEVER said that your style isnt profitable for you. if i did, post the link (anyone) and you can have all of my SBR points.

chill out man.

[Dexter]

As I have said before I have not played craps for several years. When I used to play it, I won money from it. Not sure what this has to do with this thread, which is a sports betting thread.

Look crackhead, you don't know what the **** you are talking about, so go pursue your delusions somewhere else.

wow......someone should report you to the mods the way you go running to them.

thankfully, i'm not like that.

name calling from behind a PC.....brilliant

[gtboy]

like most of the plays except NYK. why u think they will win. thanks

[lyon804]

Lost 48 units

Well, i'm out for awhile

Was that $48,000 or 48 M&M's?

[curious]

Was that $48,000 or 48 M&M's?

48 M&Ms

Losing the money did not bother me. The problem is with the handicapping. I looked back through the last several years and could not find a day anywhere near that bad, so I need to find out what is wrong. I don't want people putting their money at risk if the handicapping is flawed somehow.

Of course the experts who are telling me how to cap say to just keep on making picks. Yeah, right. I guess for them, risking their $10 at a time, that is okay, but I can't do that and I won't risk other people's money like that. There are people who follow me so I need to find out what is going on. One thing that I think is true, the last 10 days is more important than YTD this year. That hasn't been true in years past.

[curious]

wow......someone should report you to the mods the way you go running to them.

thankfully, i'm not like that.

name calling from behind a PC.....brilliant

The way I go running to them? Actually I have had problems with most of the mods. So, not sure what you are talking about. Oh, I get it, you are just making up stupid shit. Please go away.

[curious]

like most of the plays except NYK. why u think they will win. thanks

The Knicks on the road are winning at a 67% clip. The Heat at home are winning at a 75% clip. I like getting +400 on a matchup like this. Probably should take the points to in a separate play.

[curious]

Adding Knicks + 8 1/2

Adding the Knicks spread

Knicks +8 1/2 -110 2.2 units to win 2 units

We also have Knicks ML. If the Knicks win straight up we win 6 units, if the Knicks win the spread then we win 1 unit. If the Knicks lose the spread then we lose 3.2 units. I think this is a decent risk.

[curious]

im with you....i have winning and losing threads....i never stop posting.

Then you are an idiot. When you have a big loss that is contrary to the stats and contrary to your betting methodology you should take time off in order to research what happened. Which is what I am doing.

Since you don't like me or my style of play please get out of my thread and stay out of it.

[Goat Milk]

THe stats you are following will not accurately determine outcomes and in fact they are probably way off. Your getting the wrong image of teams like the bucks and 76ers right now who are better than advertised. Additionally your figures show Boston winning 82% of their games but that was the case 2 years ago i think when boston started like 25 and 5 are some shit then lost a lot more games in the last couple months of the season. So you can really get buried like i told you earlier when you started the thread if your going simply based on those numbers.

Later in the season Boston will be like 45-10 and they'll be playing the Cavs for example who will be like 20-34 and one of the worst road records in the league and Boston will be like -800 ML at home and you will take them risking 40 M&Ms to win 5 and Boston will lose.

OKC has some tough games coming up soon and they will regress. They are 21-11 now. look who they have next:

Fri 31 vs Atlanta 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLSJanuaryOpponentTimeLocal TVNat TVRadio Sat 01 @ San Antonio 7:30pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Tue 04 @ Memphis 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Thu 06 @ Dallas 7:00pm WWLS Sat 08 vs Memphis 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Wed 12 @ Houston 7:30pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Thu 13 vs Orlando 7:00pm WWLS Mon 17 @ LA Lakers 9:30pm WWLS Wed 19 @ Denver 8:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Sat 22 vs New York 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Mon 24 @ New Orleans 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS

so i hope you do not automatically take okc against a team like memphis because memphis will take 1 of those 2 games 100%. you should be fine moving forward if you take some other things into consideration other than records on the road and at home

[7secondsOrLess]

wow that jazz ml really hurt

[lyon804]

The Knicks on the road are winning at a 67% clip. The Heat at home are winning at a 75% clip. I like getting +400 on a matchup like this. Probably should take the points to in a separate play.

Not to be an ass, but do you really think employing such a simpleton stategy such as this will work? Besides even if the strategy was solid your data is too limited to make these calls. If gambling was this easy no "crackhead" with a calculator would even bother working. We would all be rich by simply plugging in the winning percentages home vs away and collect a nice check. For a guy that prides himself on being "smarter" than everybody else you might need to add some bells and whistles that can at least detract the room temperature IQ's circulating the joint.

[curious]

THe stats you are following will not accurately determine outcomes and in fact they are probably way off. Your getting the wrong image of teams like the bucks and 76ers right now who are better than advertised. Additionally your figures show Boston winning 82% of their games but that was the case 2 years ago i think when boston started like 25 and 5 are some shit then lost a lot more games in the last couple months of the season. So you can really get buried like i told you earlier when you started the thread if your going simply based on those numbers.

Later in the season Boston will be like 45-10 and they'll be playing the Cavs for example who will be like 20-34 and one of the worst road records in the league and Boston will be like -800 ML at home and you will take them risking 40 M&Ms to win 5 and Boston will lose.

OKC has some tough games coming up soon and they will regress. They are 21-11 now. look who they have next:

Fri 31 vs Atlanta 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLSJanuaryOpponentTimeLocal TVNat TVRadio Sat 01 @ San Antonio 7:30pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Tue 04 @ Memphis 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Thu 06 @ Dallas 7:00pm WWLS Sat 08 vs Memphis 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Wed 12 @ Houston 7:30pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Thu 13 vs Orlando 7:00pm WWLS Mon 17 @ LA Lakers 9:30pm WWLS Wed 19 @ Denver 8:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Sat 22 vs New York 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS Mon 24 @ New Orleans 7:00pm FS Oklahoma HD WWLS

so i hope you do not automatically take okc against a team like memphis because memphis will take 1 of those 2 games 100%. you should be fine moving forward if you take some other things into consideration other than records on the road and at home

I'm not having problems with the games, it is the Quarters that are causing the problem. But that is probably my fault, in the past we only went with the loser of the 1st Q until that team won a Q. I'm not doing that now, I am capping the Qs, but this may not be viable. So, I stopped the Q plays for the time being.

And yes, strength of schedule is important, but I have not found an easy way to calculate a strength of schedule for NBA. There is a guy who does that for us for NCAAB but I can't find an easy way to do it for NBA.

[Goat Milk]

ah, i see. just drop the quarter bets all together i would suggest. only play them occasionally when you like a certain play.

knicks ml today? sorry, no chance.