Interesting thread: good luck
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I do plays during the game too, I just don't want to have to fool with posting them.
This is a great site, http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat...quarter-margin, look at the links on the right side of the page below the ad, you will see links for all the Q and H stats. I use the Home/Away breakdown and match up the teams. Yesterday I killed the books on Q and H plays and didn't have to sit around watching the scores in order to make the Q and H plays.Comment -
Yes, I use that site also, but the numbers are skewed somewhat by blowout wins/losses due to various factors (like injuries, in-game ejections and injuries, trades etc.), plus early season team adjustments. Also, I factor out the first 6 weeks of the season completely, then if a team has a radical change in personnel via a trade or injury I give them 2-3 weeks to adjust before I consider their stats as valid again.Comment -
LOL it's what I do! Plus I have a wife my own age, so what else am I going to do? Ha!Comment -
for me best bet tonight is San Antonio ML +130!Comment -
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so you just compare the two teams, home and away, quarter by quarter, half by half and thats what you play regardless of anything? at it roughly hits 70%. this could be fun. my chasing halves system i told you about yesterday is 10-0 since i started playing. Although it did look really bad at one point today but everyone pulled throughComment -
Been there, done that. The problem is the girlfriends end up wanting to be wives then it's a shitstorm.
By the way, have you used a 2-5 or 2-6 (Tony Stoffo type) system in MLB or NBA before?Comment -
whats good for today?Comment -
No, this is a wagering system and is based on math. You bet your own games that you cap, but the great part about this is if you're hitting 2 out of 5 or 2 out of 6 consistently you can significantly increase your profits vs. straight betting. It's not for everyone, but for a good capper who understands how to slot the plays into his series it can be extremely profitable.
I also paid a scamdicapper years ago when I first started betting. Then I figured it out for myself like you.
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I have no idea what you are talking about.No, this is a wagering system and is based on math. You bet your own games that you cap, but the great part about this is if you're hitting 2 out of 5 or 2 out of 6 consistently you can significantly increase your profits vs. straight betting. It's not for everyone, but for a good capper who understands how to slot the plays into his series it can be extremely profitable.
I also paid a scamdicapper years ago when I first started betting. Then I figured it out for myself like you.
Give us a pick and explain why your system picked it.
2 out of 5? Dude, I hit 7 out of 10 and 4 out of 5 consistently.Comment -
Something that I also used to do but the site that I used to use shut down (www.mauisportsinsider.com). BUMMER. I look for teams that are on a winning streak playing a team on a losing streak. I look at ATS for the dog and ML for the fav.
I am not doing that right now because I can't find a good site that shows all the games ATS and SU and shows the line at game time. On the mauisportsinsider site you could tell who the streaking teams were at a glance. Oh, and the maui guys listed the hot and cold teams for you. This was a GREAT site, not sure why they closed. You could have done nothing but played hot teams vs cold teams and done very very well.Comment -
scratch heat than..ill be taking spurs +8, bucks +4
much better..i cant win a game for my life i need winners
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I know, that's why I think this is a great system for you. You can download his guide at the link below (click on the file MMPSH3.pdf); I think you'll find it interesting whether you use it or not.
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are you playing Qs and halves in game? or you bet them now?
i'm with you on Spurs ML and Bucks -2 I couldnt get them at -1... like miami but not at -6.5
winning % stats
Spurs vs Magic Overall Spurs89%-Magic57%;SpursRoad90%-Magichome64%;L10Spurs100%-Magic20% Percentage Adv Spurs 138%
Bucks vs Kings Overall Bucks41%-Kings19%;BucksRoad29%-Kingshome20%;L10bucks50%-Kings10% Adv Bucks70%
Heat vs Suns Overall Heat70%-Suns48%;heatRoad64%-SunsHome58%;L10heat90%-Suns50% Adv Heat68%
CheersComment -
Repost today's picks 12/23/10
We have been fooling around so much today's picks are 2 or 3 pages back. Here they are so you can actually find them.
San Antonio +2 1/2 2.2 units to win 2 units
San Antonio +125 ML 1 unit to win 1.25 unit
Milwaukee -1 3.3 units to win 3 units
All Q and H plays risking 1 unit on + odds, risking to win 1 unit on - odds.
1Q
Sacramento
Orlando
2Q
Orlando
Miami
3Q
Milwaukee
San Antonio
Miami
4Q
San Antonio
Phoenix
1H
Sacramento
Orlando
2H
Milwaukee
San AntonioComment -
Yes, I am playing Q and H. The lines on Q 2, 3, and 4 don't post until right before the Q starts so I post which side I will be on and leave the line blank. It is up to each player to figure out what line they will take.
Note** DO NOT lay points with favs on Q and H plays. You will get killed. Take the ML or stay away. DO take points on dogs on Q and H plays. We want to raise the win %. Going ML on favs and taking points on dogs raises the win %.Comment -
clarification of previous post
Sorry that the previous post is so cryptic.
Where it says: "The lines on Q 2, 3, and 4 don't post until right before the Q" should read
The lines on the 2, 3, and 4 quarters do not post until right before the quarter starts. Same with the second half.
Make these plays during the game not before the game.Comment -
Curious!!Comment -
I'm wondering how you pick your 1q winners... Not sure if you want to share that info but I'm learning a lot from you especially with bankroll mgmt. You're quarter plays are hitting like crazy..Comment -
Go to http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat...quarter-margin and compare the games home vs away. Throw out all matchups that are both negative or both positive unless the larger positive number is extreme and the smaller positive number is very low, say 6 vs .5.
When you bet the 1st Q play DO NOT LAY POINTS, take the ML on favs or don't play it. Do take the points on dogs. This raises the Win %.
You can refine the plays by looking at each team's last 10 games road/home and see if something strange has happened to their 1Q plays lately. Also look to see if they have had any strange scores in the 1Q in any games that are anomalies, like scoring 40 points in 1 Q or scoring 7 points in 1 Q. I think I actually saw a game like that somewhere, might have been college.
If you have any questions I am here to help.Comment -
what book do you use? Bookmaker doesn't even have quarter lines open-- I think they open them up a little bit before game time?Comment -
Just an observation, but the dog won the 1Q outright last night in 7 out of 9 games (only 2 that didn't hit were Hornets and Celtics).Comment -
I've noticed that to BR... + point teams tend to win that 1Q, especially in a game where the line is +7 or higher. Something to consider.Comment -
Quarter strategy explanation
Okay, I am going to explain a quarter strategy that we developed several years ago. None of the other cappers are on SBR any more because they got fed up with the nonsense.
Here is the way it works. First, look back through EVERY GAME for EVERY TEAM and see if there are any teams that lose all Qs in a game more than 1 or 2 times for the season so far (this season, I could care less what happened last year). Throw those teams out.
If you want to get real serious you could also compare matchups and see if there are any teams that hold any other teams to games where the opponent does not win a single Q.
Okay, here is how it works. For the 1st Q go to http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat...quarter-margin and compare each game visitor vs home and use the columns visitor vs home for the matchup. Look for games where a GREAT 1st Q team is playing an awful 1st Q team.
Play those 1st Q picks.
Now, when the 1st Q is getting close to finishing, see who won the 1st Q and play the OTHER team for the 2nd Q.
If any of the 2nd Q picks lose, then double up on them to play the 3rd Q, if that loses, double up again on the 4th Q. this is why we throw out the teams that have history of losing all 4 Qs.
Now, this is VERY VERY VERY important. Take the dogs plus the points. Do not count on the dog for the game being the dog for any given Q. The fav for the game could be the dog for the 2nd Q if they get blown out in the 1st Q. I have seen this happen.
VERY VERY VERY important, cont'd. Take the favs on the money line. Let me repeat, take the favs on the money line. If you lay points on quarter plays for favs you will get killed. If you want to get killed just don't do something that your wife told you to do and you will have your wish. Or, flirt with a woman who is younger and prettier than your wife and have her invite us to your funeral. But don't get killed doing something stupid in sports betting.
Now, you are going to have a quandary. I post picks on Q plays for all 4 Qs. This quarter strategy I am telling you is going to contradict some of these posted plays. So, which ones do you take? That is up to you. I know how I do it, I cannot decide this for you.
This strategy KILLS the books.
Now, you are going to have a game once in a while where you go 3 Qs and you lose all 3 Qs. That is going to hurt. Different people have different ways of dealing with this. Some people say they don't care if one team loses in one game because we have so many winners so they don't do the Martingale. Personally, I use the Martingale but I have a high tolerance for EDUCATED risk.
I would suggest that you work out your strategy ahead of time in MS Excel and then stick to that. Let's say that you are betting to win $100 and you are betting a dog on the 2 Q and the lose $110, then the 3rd Q you lay $220 on this team, and they lose, now you are laying $440 and let's say that they lose. You just lost $770. Now, if you only lay $110 then you lose $330. The difference will be in all those games where the team wins the 4Q and I made back all my loss + a profit of $110 and you won $110 and lost $220. Now, if the play we are backing is always a fav, OMG fohgetaboutit.
This is why it is important to throw out teams that like to lose all 4 Qs.
Last night there was some stupid team that lost 3 Qs and tied 1 Q. Toronto. Fortunately for me my Q plays that were predicted before the game started had Detroit in 2 of those Qs and Toronto in 2 of the Qs and I did not double up on the loss because I was playing plays based on the matchup and not the Q strategy. I don't know if Toronto was a dog in the Q that they tied. I'm thinking not.
Anyway, if any questions just ask and I will try not to make too much fun of you when I answer your question.Comment
