Curious Season Thread

[curious]

I don't have time to track and play the Q bets. So, I'm going to use game bets only. If someone wants to track and play the Q and H using the progression, feel free.

Boston -250 4.5 to win 1.8 units Win +1.8 units
Orlando -400 7.2 to win 1.8 units Win +1.8 units
New York Knicks +400 1 to win 4 units Loss -1 unit
Chicago Bulls -430 19 to win 4.5 units Win +4.5 units
Spurs -150 4.5 to win 3 units Win +3 units
Dallas to win 5 units (no line set, calculate the units to risk when the line is set) Loss -33 units
Denver to win 5 units (no line set, calculate the units to risk when the line is set) Win +5 units

I won't be around much today, if at all

I added this play later on: Knicks +8 1/2 -110 2.2 units to win 2 units Win +2 units

6-2 -16 units

[Whippit]

Dallas to win 5 units (no line set, calculate the units to risk when the line is set)
Denver to win 5 units (no line set, calculate the units to risk when the line is set)

[curious]

Wed Dec 29

Washington -2 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
Atlanta (No line posted right now)
Charlotte (No line posted right now)
Boston -6 1/2 -110 2.75 to win 2.5
OKC (No line posted right now)
New Orleans +2 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
Minnesota (No line posted right now)
Houston +4 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
Phoenix (No line posted right now)
Memphis -4 -110 1.65 to win 1.5
Utah -2 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3

I will update Atlanta, Charlotte, OKC, Minnesota, and Phoenix when the lines post.

As you notice I am not doing MLs today.

[play]

What a pity on Dallas, for me too!

[curious]

Atlanta -6 1/2 -110 5 to win 4.5
Charlotte -7 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3
OKC -9 -110 5.5 to win 5
Minnesota -1 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
Phoenix -5 -110 3.3 to win 3

[chaseman]

My 1Q plays were a failure yesterday. Let's see what happens when I consider the last 3 1Q stats along with any recent match-ups between the teams. If the home/away numbers are close (+/- 2), and there is a big discrepancy in the last 3, then I'm picking whoever's hot. I probably won't play these, but I'll use it as an experiment.

1Q:
Atlanta
Cleveland
Boston
New Jersey (This one is a play because of a <3 difference in home/away, NJ will be a 1Q dog, and a difference of 6 in the team's last 3, respectively)
New Orleans (Lakers -8 last 3, NO +3 last 3)
Denver (Denver +8 last 3, Minn -3.3)
LA Clippers

1H:
Atlanta
Charlotte
Boston
LA Clippers

Let's see what happens.

[curious]

My 1Q plays were a failure yesterday. Let's see what happens when I consider the last 3 1Q stats along with any recent match-ups between the teams. If the home/away numbers are close (+/- 2), and there is a big discrepancy in the last 3, then I'm picking whoever's hot. I probably won't play these, but I'll use it as an experiment.

1Q:
Atlanta
Cleveland
Boston
New Jersey (This one is a play because of a <3 difference in home/away, NJ will be a 1Q dog, and a difference of 6 in the team's last 3, respectively)
New Orleans (Lakers -8 last 3, NO +3 last 3)
Denver (Denver +8 last 3, Minn -3.3)
LA Clippers

1H:
Atlanta
Charlotte
Boston
LA Clippers

Let's see what happens.

One thing that may have merit. But you would have to look at the year to date stats on it, is look at all the games in terms of who won each Half. What we found before was that the team that loses the first Half wins the second Half. The site that I used to use for all this stuff is not active any more. Not sure where you can validate this idea. I think at most books you can play the 2nd Half after the 1st Half is over.

[curious]

Washington -2 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1 Win +1
Atlanta (No line posted right now)
Charlotte (No line posted right now)
Boston -6 1/2 -110 2.75 to win 2.5 Loss -2.75
OKC (No line posted right now)
New Orleans +2 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1 Loss -1.1
Minnesota (No line posted right now)
Houston +4 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1 Loss -1.1
Phoenix (No line posted right now)
Memphis -4 -110 1.65 to win 1.5 Loss -1.65
Utah -2 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3 Win +3

I will update Atlanta, Charlotte, OKC, Minnesota, and Phoenix when the lines post.

As you notice I am not doing MLs today.

-2.6

Atlanta -6 1/2 -110 5 to win 4.5 Win +4.5
Charlotte -7 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3 Win +3
OKC -9 -110 5.5 to win 5 Win +5
Minnesota -1 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1 Loss -1.1
Phoenix -5 -110 3.3 to win 3 Loss -3.3

5-6 +5.5 units

Hmmmm, not too shabby. We'll try spreads again tomorrow.

[curious]

Thursday Dec 30

New York +8 -110 1.1 to win 1
San Antonio (No line yet, will be playing the spread)
Utah (No line yet, will be playing the spread)

[curious]

NOTE** On the plays in the previous post, I am assuming that San Antonio and Utah are going to get a good line. If their opponent gets a great line I may switch. I'll post these plays when the lines are set.

[7secondsOrLess]

i thought you kill NBA NCAA etc every season with MLs why are u stopping now

[curious]

i thought you kill NBA NCAA etc every season with MLs why are u stopping now

Because past results do not predict future results in gambling and it looks like things have changed. This may only be temporary. We'll see. Feel free to continue playing MLs, let us know how you do.

This might be temporary, or it might be permanent, we'll have to see. So, your approach is to keep blindly doing what you are doing regardless of what reality is? Great approach.

So, you really would have rather went 5-6 last night with a loss instead of a 5 unit profit? That's better how?

[curious]

Update

San Antonio -2 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
Utah +1 -110 1.1 to win 1

Now I have three plays risking 3.3 to win 3, which means of course that I go 3-0 tonight. LOL And if I had a large number of units at risk I would go 0-3. LOL

[Shark79]

Curious,

You have 2 plays posted, but mention 3 plays risking (is one a parly with both plays?).

Leans are SA and Portland ML.

GL tonite.

[curious]

Curious,

You have 2 plays posted, but mention 3 plays risking (is one a parly with both plays?).

Leans are SA and Portland ML.

GL tonite.

I know it is confusing but the idiot mods put a restriction on my account where I cannot modify posts, I have to make a new post. I wish the idiots would just ban me. There pets phuck with me and then I get sick of it so I retaliate, then the mods screw with my account and leave their pets alone. I left SBR for over a year because of this stupidity.

Look at post #324 and post #328

post #324
New York +8 -110 1.1 to win 1
San Antonio (No line yet, will be playing the spread)
Utah (No line yet, will be playing the spread)

post #328
Update

San Antonio -2 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
Utah +1 -110 1.1 to win 1

Now I have three plays risking 3.3 to win 3, which means of course that I go 3-0 tonight. LOL And if I had a large number of units at risk I would go 0-3. LOL

[Shark79]

My bad for not reading more.

Backing you up on that SA play.

[chaseman]

My 1Q plays were a failure yesterday. Let's see what happens when I consider the last 3 1Q stats along with any recent match-ups between the teams. If the home/away numbers are close (+/- 2), and there is a big discrepancy in the last 3, then I'm picking whoever's hot. I probably won't play these, but I'll use it as an experiment.

1Q:
Atlanta
Cleveland
Boston
New Jersey (This one is a play because of a <3 difference in home/away, NJ will be a 1Q dog, and a difference of 6 in the team's last 3, respectively)
New Orleans (Lakers -8 last 3, NO +3 last 3)
Denver (Denver +8 last 3, Minn -3.3)
LA Clippers

1H:
Atlanta
Charlotte
Boston
LA Clippers

Let's see what happens.

1Q plays went 3-4. We had a rare occasion where a team (Boston) did not win a single Q (they pushed 4Q). Obviously they lost 2H as well. Denver lost 1Q and covered 2Q. Cleveland and New Orleans didn't win until 4Q. 1H plays went 3-1. 6-5 overall. Boston would have murdered us if we chased.

I'm not using a set system as far as which plays I'm picking--I'm more or less just eyeing the numbers and deciding between home/away and last 3. From now on I'll label the plays by the discrepancies in "Last 3" or "Home/away" or "Both" to see which makes the biggest difference. I'll also look at chasing the 2H after a 1H loss as well as chasing after a 1Q loss and see how that works out. I might also look at not playing 1Q and just chasing the loser of the 1Q as well. I'm sure this isn't exactly how you picked your 1Q and 1H plays, so this may be helpful or it may not be.

[chaseman]

12/30

1Q:
Orlando (Home +4.2/Knicks away -1.9, knicks last 3 -5.3)
Portland (home +2.5/Jazz away -5.5, jazz last 3 -3.3, jazz 2nd worse in 2010 overall 1Q)

1H:
Orlando (home/away, Orlando is top 1H team)
Dallas (home +5.2/Spurs away -3.6)

[play]

Idiots mods or idiot you?

[xxbadazxx]

GL today curious

[ejfel01]

Hey, congrats on your own thread Curious.
I'm your huge fan... I'd never had the guts to play those amounts that you do
Go get 'em

[curious]

Idiots mods or idiot you?

I will let you decide. I was going to go to the SBR bash one year. My beautiful wife was going to come with me. Some idiots on here started threatening to rape my wife if we came to the bash. I got upset and told them off. I had several restrictions put on my account, nothing was done to the idiots.

So, you tell me, idiot mods or idiot Curious?

[TakeIt]

We had a rare occasion where a team (Boston) did not win a single Q (they pushed 4Q).

I might also look at not playing 1Q and just chasing the loser of the 1Q as well.

in the last 14 days, chasing the loser of the 1stQ lost the next 3 quarters 15 out of 109 games or 14% of the time.

not so "rare" after all, huh...

[curious]

Hey, congrats on your own thread Curious.
I'm your huge fan... I'd never had the guts to play those amounts that you do
Go get 'em

I started out in sports betting playing small, but I was lucky. The first bet I made was 100% of bank. LOL. I was following a handicapper whose picks I bought. The bet won. So, I doubled my bank. This guy had an amazing baseball season.

I was very lucky. I can imagine that if I tried the same thing now I would lose that one big bet. LOL

Over time I have added to the bank from my consulting work, so I am not saying that the bank grew all on its own, but I became more confident, and the early wins helped.

Find an approach that works well and don't overbet your bank and over time your bank will get to the level where you can bet big. It might take several seasons.

[curious]

in the last 14 days, chasing the loser of the 1stQ lost the next 3 quarters 15 out of 109 games or 14% of the time.

not so "rare" after all, huh...

Can any of those teams be thrown out? Or are the losses across all teams?

In the previous years we never saw a team losing all 4 quarters so often.

What if you didn't press the losses but came back as same bet?

[chaseman]

in the last 14 days, chasing the loser of the 1stQ lost the next 3 quarters 15 out of 109 games or 14% of the time. not so "rare" after all, huh...

Thanks for running that stat. I suppose it isn't exactly rare but 14% isn't great either. Did you happen to notice if any certain teams were prone to lose all four quarters more than others? And some of those 14% would not even be actual plays based on the numbers I use.. so that percentage would most likely be lower. Thanks though, that is helpful to know.

[7secondsOrLess]

Because past results do not predict future results in gambling and it looks like things have changed. This may only be temporary. We'll see. Feel free to continue playing MLs, let us know how you do.

This might be temporary, or it might be permanent, we'll have to see. So, your approach is to keep blindly doing what you are doing regardless of what reality is? Great approach.

So, you really would have rather went 5-6 last night with a loss instead of a 5 unit profit? That's better how?

i do not play MLs like you do i was just asking because you said that you will keep playing that way even though many has told you MLs will kill u

[curious]

i do not play MLs like you do i was just asking because you said that you will keep playing that way even though many has told you MLs will kill u

That isn't what I said. What I said was that in the past playing MLs worked great for me even though all the "experts" don't like MLs. I don't start an NBA season until 25% of the games are over. This year MLs are not working, I am stopping playing them temporarily to figure out why they are not working. I never said that I would keep playing them even if they weren't working. I said I would not stop them just because a bunch of crackheads told me so. You aren't a crackhead are you?

[curious]

Thanks for running that stat. I suppose it isn't exactly rare but 14% isn't great either. Did you happen to notice if any certain teams were prone to lose all four quarters more than others? And some of those 14% would not even be actual plays based on the numbers I use.. so that percentage would most likely be lower. Thanks though, that is helpful to know.

Compared to prior years 14% is a huge number. That is very strange. Perhaps not increasing the play on the ones who lose would be the correct approach. For example, if you lose the 2nd Quarter the 3rd Quarter bet is same bet. Not sure what to do for the 4th Quarter though. Same bet?

[curious]

in the last 14 days, chasing the loser of the 1stQ lost the next 3 quarters 15 out of 109 games or 14% of the time.

not so "rare" after all, huh...

14 days doesn't mean anything. But that is a large percentage compared to previous years.

[EasyHustlin]

Boston lost all 4 quarters the other night in large part because Kevin Garnett left early with an injury. So that game is easily taken out of the equation to anyone with common sense.

[curious]

San Antonio -2 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1 Win +1
Utah +1 -110 1.1 to win 1 Loss -1.1
New York +8 -110 1.1 to win 1 Loss -1.1

Loss -1.2

[curious]

Friday December 31

Boston ?? -110 5 to win 4.5
Charlotte -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Indiana -6 -110 5.5 to win 5
Chicago -10 -110 6.6 to win 6
Houston -9 -110 5 to win 4.5
OKC -5 -110 2.2 to win 2
Phoenix ?? -110 3.3 to win 3
Lakers ?? -110 5 to win 4.5

I'll update Boston, Phoenix, and the Lakers when they post tomorrow

[Goat Milk]

ill take the nets for 300 points

[TakeIt]

Can any of those teams be thrown out? Or are the losses across all teams?

across all teams--including a loss by boston and the lakers.