Curious Season Thread

[TakeIt]

Boston lost all 4 quarters the other night in large part because Kevin Garnett left early with an injury. So that game is easily taken out of the equation to anyone with common sense.

maybe, maybe not. the books will adjust for any injuries, so the line should reflect the changes.

[chaseman]

Compared to prior years 14% is a huge number. That is very strange. Perhaps not increasing the play on the ones who lose would be the correct approach. For example, if you lose the 2nd Quarter the 3rd Quarter bet is same bet. Not sure what to do for the 4th Quarter though. Same bet?

I'm more of a conservative chaser if I chase at all--so keeping the same amount is what I would prefer because we have so many plays anyway. Does the 14% take into account playing dogs + the points and not simply who wins the quarter? That may eliminate some of those as well.

2-2 yesterday. I understand the line would reflect not having Nowitzki in for Dallas, but in the future I won't be able to justify playing a team without their best piece on the board. On to today...

1Q:
Chicago (last 3 +6.3)
Charlotte (last 3 and home/away)

1H:
Chicago
Indiana
Charlotte
Houston
LA Lakers

Houston would be a 1Q play based on long-term, but Toronto has been blowing it up in last 3. I'm also throwing out Boston due to injuries even though the numbers favor them in the 1H.. I don't want the stress of watching them fail again.

[curious]

Here are the updates.

Boston -4 1/2 -110 5 to win 4.5
Charlotte -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Indiana -6 -110 5.5 to win 5
Chicago -10 -110 6.6 to win 6
Houston -9 -110 5 to win 4.5
OKC -5 -110 2.2 to win 2
Phoenix -6 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3
Lakers -10 -110 5 to win 4.5

[Goat Milk]

did you accept my offer

[curious]

did you accept my offer

no I did not

[xxbadazxx]

Like the okc and pho picks gl

[Dexter]

Happy New Year Curious.....

[curious]

here are the updates.

Boston -4 1/2 -110 5 to win 4.5 lost -5
charlotte -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2 lost -2.2
indiana -6 -110 5.5 to win 5 win +5
chicago -10 -110 6.6 to win 6 loss -6.6
houston -9 -110 5 to win 4.5 push
okc -5 -110 2.2 to win 2 win +2
phoenix -6 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3 win +3
lakers -10 -110 5 to win 4.5 loss -5

3-4-1 -8.8

[curious]

January 1, 2011

New Orleans ML -125 2.5 units to win 2 units
Minnesota ML -200 5 units to win 2.5 units
San Antonio ML -280 5.6 units to win 2 units
Utah ML -270 9.45 to win 3.5 units
Dallas ML -130 2.6 to win 2 units

Parlay -244 41.5 units to win 17 units
Chicago ML -1400
Miami ML -825
Denver ML -575

[curious]

New Orleans ML -125 2.5 units to win 2 units Win +2 units
Minnesota ML -200 5 units to win 2.5 units Win +2.5 units
San Antonio ML -280 5.6 units to win 2 units Win +2 units
Utah ML -270 9.45 to win 3.5 units Win +3.5 units
Dallas ML -130 2.6 to win 2 units Loss -2.6 units

Parlay -244 41.5 units to win 17 units Win +17 units
Chicago ML -1400
Miami ML -825
Denver ML -575

7-1 +24.4 Units

[curious]

Here are my plays for tomorrow I will fill in the lines once they are posted.

(all of these are to win # of units for favs, risking # of units for dogs)
New York 2 units
Atlanta 1.5 units
Boston 2.5 units
Dallas 6 units
Portland 4.5 units
Phoenix 1.5 units
Lakers 4.5 units

If any of these lines are way out there I will put those teams into a parlay. I may drop the Lakers play, depends on the line, the Lakers have been flaky lately.

[TheGambler]

Curious, I was wondering if you still do the quarter betting chase system? ever since you mentioned that a year or so ago, I have always paid attention to it and I swear that an NBA game has a team win at least one quarter 95% of the time. Even in the games where a team is favored by double-digits, there is always one quarter they don't play well in. I don't believe in chase systems but this one would seem to be a winner in the long run. However, Bet365 is the only place i know that does live quarter betting and I'm from the US so can't play there.

[Dexter]

7-1 +24.4 Units

nice day

[raiders510]

curious...you have an interesting style....i mean you had a nice night obviously, but could have been down like 50+ units....i give you props my man; you have bollocks of steel and at the end of the day, our hobby can be unnerving and you gotta lay with confidence

good luck tomorrow may the winners be yours

[curious]

curious...you have an interesting style....i mean you had a nice night obviously, but could have been down like 50+ units....i give you props my man; you have bollocks of steel and at the end of the day, our hobby can be unnerving and you gotta lay with confidence

good luck tomorrow may the winners be yours

I have been doing this for a long time. You have to be careful, this system won't work with NFL, NHL, and this year it doesn't work with many NCAAF teams.

And I have laid off a few days this year in NBA.

I also play a lot of quarters and halves that I am not posting because too many people say that they cannot find a place to play all the quarters and halves on the money line. I have some places that I use but I don't understand why no one else can find them.

[curious]

Curious, I was wondering if you still do the quarter betting chase system? ever since you mentioned that a year or so ago, I have always paid attention to it and I swear that an NBA game has a team win at least one quarter 95% of the time. Even in the games where a team is favored by double-digits, there is always one quarter they don't play well in. I don't believe in chase systems but this one would seem to be a winner in the long run. However, Bet365 is the only place i know that does live quarter betting and I'm from the US so can't play there.

Yes, I play the quarters and halves but I don't post them because too many people say that they cannot find a place to play them. I don't know if that is a US thing or what. If you can find anyplace that will give you any of the quarters you might play only the dogs, I never lay points in a quarters or half play. But taking points, well that works very well.

I think you can play the 1st Quarter and the 3rd Quarter spread at most places. I would just stick with the dogs if I was playing the spread.

[raiders510]

i use pinnacle, they offer spreads and ML on quarters and halves, but i suppose a lot of posters here are from the states

[curious]

i use pinnacle, they offer spreads and ML on quarters and halves, but i suppose a lot of posters here are from the states

I found lots of books that offer quarters and halves but I guess a lot of people only look at a few books and I got tired of arguing about it.

[curious]

New York -270 ML 5.4 units to win 2 units
Atlanta -110 ML 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Portland -165 ML 7.425 units to win 4.5 units
Phoenix -200 ML 3 units to win 1.5 units

Boston 2.5 units
Dallas 6 units
Lakers 4.5 units

If any of these lines are way out there I will put those teams into a parlay. I may drop the Lakers play, depends on the line, the Lakers have been flaky lately.

Will post Boston, Dallas, and Lakers when someone gives a line on them.

[TheGambler]

Yes, I play the quarters and halves but I don't post them because too many people say that they cannot find a place to play them. I don't know if that is a US thing or what. If you can find anyplace that will give you any of the quarters you might play only the dogs, I never lay points in a quarters or half play. But taking points, well that works very well.

I think you can play the 1st Quarter and the 3rd Quarter spread at most places. I would just stick with the dogs if I was playing the spread.

Most of my books offer the quarter lines prior to the game but for me, I think you need to have a book that allows quarter betting once the game starts. The theory is that a team will at least win one quarter so you can't really bet that before the game. I agree though, I would only play the dog. Actually, I would let the first quarter go by and not begin my quarter bets until I saw who won the first quarter. The worst is a 3 quarter chase and if you are playing the dogs it wouldn't cost you as much as some of the other crazy chase systems. Bet365 is the only book i know that offers this and they don't accept US players.

Curious, can you PM if you wouldn't mind sharing how you play quarters and halves. If not, I totally understand.

[curious]

Most of my books offer the quarter lines prior to the game but for me, I think you need to have a book that allows quarter betting once the game starts. The theory is that a team will at least win one quarter so you can't really bet that before the game. I agree though, I would only play the dog. Actually, I would let the first quarter go by and not begin my quarter bets until I saw who won the first quarter. The worst is a 3 quarter chase and if you are playing the dogs it wouldn't cost you as much as some of the other crazy chase systems. Bet365 is the only book i know that offers this and they don't accept US players.

Curious, can you PM if you wouldn't mind sharing how you play quarters and halves. If not, I totally understand.

I will post an explanation. The mods took my PMs away from me because some of their pets threatened to rape my wife if we came to the bash last year and I went completely mental on them. So, the mods took my PMs away and did nothing to the AHs who threatened my wife. Lovely mods we have here at SBR, eh?

[curious]

New York -270 ML 5.4 units to win 2 units
Atlanta -110 ML 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Portland -165 ML 7.425 units to win 4.5 units
Phoenix -200 ML 3 units to win 1.5 units
Boston -200 ML 5 units to win 2.5 units
Dallas -220 ML 13.2 units to win 6 units

Parlay +290 1.6 to win 4.64
Phoenix -200 ML
Boston -200 ML
Dallas -220 ML
Lakers -525 ML

I didn't like the Lakers line so I put together this little parlay

I'm thinking we have a big night.

[STAY STRONG]

kings look good to cover at home tonight

[curious]

Most of my books offer the quarter lines prior to the game but for me, I think you need to have a book that allows quarter betting once the game starts. The theory is that a team will at least win one quarter so you can't really bet that before the game. I agree though, I would only play the dog. Actually, I would let the first quarter go by and not begin my quarter bets until I saw who won the first quarter. The worst is a 3 quarter chase and if you are playing the dogs it wouldn't cost you as much as some of the other crazy chase systems. Bet365 is the only book i know that offers this and they don't accept US players.

Curious, can you PM if you wouldn't mind sharing how you play quarters and halves. If not, I totally understand.

We experimented with this over 3 seasons, so there is no one way to play it, however, we KILLED the books with this. I stopped posting it because too many people complained about not being able to find books that offer quarters ML and/or all the quarters Live. I'm not their babysitter so I got tired of listening to all the nonsense.

Anyway, here are two ways that I like.
First, cap the games very thoroughly, some people use how many of each Q a given team wins, some use the average +/- for that Quarter from www.teamrankings.com. I think the number of each Qs that a team wins is more predictive but that is a hard stat to find, so we used the www.teamrankings.com stat.

Now, before the game starts predict each quarter and play the quarters that you like for the teams that you like. Dogs + the points and favs on the money line. DO NOT PLAY FAVS minus the points. You will get killed.

Some people prefer to only play the 1st Q and then determine what other Qs to play based on the previous results, and wait till right before the Q starts to make the play. You have to be a pretty good capper to do that and we were trying to make an "any man" way to do this so we didn't do that.

Here is a second way that I like.

Second, cap the 1st Q plays and play the ones that are really strong with the team that you like, play favs on the money line and dogs + the points. Some people only play dogs here, that's okay by me.

For any teams that win the 1st Q those games are taken off the list.

For all the games that are still on the list, play the loser of the 1st Q to win the 2nd Q, play favs on the money line and dogs plus the points.

For any teams that lose the 2nd Q play them again to win the 3rd Q, but play to win 2x whatever the 2nd Q lost, play favs on money line and dogs plus the points.

For any teams that lose the 3rd Q play them again to win the 4th Q, but play to win 2x whatever the 3rd Q lost, play favs on the money line and dogs plus the points.

NOTE** this is really, really important. Cap all the games and see if there is a strong reason to pass on a team to win 1 Quarter out of 4 Quarters. One year that we were doing this the Clippers lost all 4 quarters quite often (I think it was the Clippers, might have been someone else), so we never played them. This year teams are failing to win 1 Quarter at an alarming pace (15% but when you figure dogs + the points it is actually a smaller ratio than that), some teams due to injuries, others I just cannot figure it out. I can't tell anyone how to do this capping, I'm not the best in the world at it. But, you get the idea.

Now, since this year teams are losing all 4 Quarters at a higher than usual rate you might want to only play single bets and not double and quadruple up.

Another thing to do is to just play to get a total win among all the teams, so if you played 7 plays in the 2nd Q and 5 won, then you can stop.

Now if you only played dogs you would be in much better shape because you wouldn't be laying big lines and if you lost 3 Quarters it wouldn't really matter.

I hope this helps, if you need to ask any further questions I will answer the best I can.

[curious]

kings look good to cover at home tonight

Perhaps, Phoenix was a weak play here which is why the bet is so small.

[raiders510]

curious...just stopping by to give you some props for the novels you write for everyone here breaking down your strategies. Some very interesting stuff in here......btw this is my NFL parlays i was talking about earlier... hoping for a couple nice hits here



18:38pm 1-Jan-11 Parlay4-Team Parlay.6.05 74.79
1.2-Jan-11Football/NFL(Money Line) Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts for Game ( 1.200)Pending
2.Win 2-JanFootball/NFL(Money Line) Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions for Game ( 1.513)13 - 20
3.2-Jan-11Football/NFL(Money Line) St Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks for Game ( 2.30)Pending
4.2-Jan-11Football/NFL(Money Line) Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers for Game ( 3.200)Pending




second one


48:47am 2-Jan-11 Parlay3-Team Parlay.100.00 500.18
1.2-Jan-11Football/NFL(Money Line) Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts for Game ( 1.220)Pending
2.Win 2-JanFootball/NFL(Money Line) Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns for Game ( 1.370)41 - 9
3.Win 2-JanFootball/NFL(Money Line) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints for Game ( 3.600)23 - 13



i like your card for tonight....if my NFL goes well today i will take some of that action

your style sure is interesting though...i mean looking at tonights card for example, you could hit everything BUT the Mavericks and you would be down

[curious]

curious...just stopping by to give you some props for the novels you write for everyone here breaking down your strategies. Some very interesting stuff in here......btw this is my NFL parlays i was talking about earlier... hoping for a couple nice hits here



18:38pm 1-Jan-11 Parlay4-Team Parlay.6.05 4.79
1.2-Jan-11Football/NFL(Money Line) Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts for Game ( 1.200)Pending
2.Win 2-JanFootball/NFL(Money Line) Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions for Game ( 1.513)13 - 20
3.2-Jan-11Football/NFL(Money Line) St Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks for Game ( 2.30)Pending
4.2-Jan-11Football/NFL(Money Line) Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers for Game ( 3.200)Pending




second one


48:47am 2-Jan-11 Parlay3-Team Parlay.100.00 500.18
1.2-Jan-11Football/NFL(Money Line) Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts for Game ( 1.220)Pending
2.Win 2-JanFootball/NFL(Money Line) Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns for Game ( 1.370)41 - 9
3.Win 2-JanFootball/NFL(Money Line) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints for Game ( 3.600)23 - 13



i like your card for tonight....if my NFL goes well today i will take some of that action

Thanks for stopping in. I feel very strongly about today's NBA card.

In looking at your NFL plays, I think you will win the 2nd parlay, you are going to have problems with the 1st one with the Arizona pick. Why didn't you take Arizona + the points?

[raiders510]

i just think arizona gets it done today...that wager was only 6 dollars..haha. I think the Seattle play was a little more risky...shoulda thrown the Bucs instead. I already up on NFL today....played the Steelers and Bucs

[curious]

Atlanta Wins!!!

Wow, Atlanta would have had me sweating if I had watched the game or checked the scores. LOL Atlanta Wins!!!

OOOHHH OOOHHHH the Knicks Won Two!!!

3.5 units?? LOL. Why did I bet these so low? LOL



Some crackhead was arguing with me, I think in another thread that the Clippers were going to win straight up today. Yeah, right. I just love these crackheads who think they are big time cappers.

[TheGambler]

We experimented with this over 3 seasons, so there is no one way to play it, however, we KILLED the books with this. I stopped posting it because too many people complained about not being able to find books that offer quarters ML and/or all the quarters Live. I'm not their babysitter so I got tired of listening to all the nonsense.

Anyway, here are two ways that I like.
First, cap the games very thoroughly, some people use how many of each Q a given team wins, some use the average +/- for that Quarter from www.teamrankings.com. I think the number of each Qs that a team wins is more predictive but that is a hard stat to find, so we used the www.teamrankings.com stat.

Now, before the game starts predict each quarter and play the quarters that you like for the teams that you like. Dogs + the points and favs on the money line. DO NOT PLAY FAVS minus the points. You will get killed.

Some people prefer to only play the 1st Q and then determine what other Qs to play based on the previous results, and wait till right before the Q starts to make the play. You have to be a pretty good capper to do that and we were trying to make an "any man" way to do this so we didn't do that.

Here is a second way that I like.

Second, cap the 1st Q plays and play the ones that are really strong with the team that you like, play favs on the money line and dogs + the points. Some people only play dogs here, that's okay by me.

For any teams that win the 1st Q those games are taken off the list.

For all the games that are still on the list, play the loser of the 1st Q to win the 2nd Q, play favs on the money line and dogs plus the points.

For any teams that lose the 2nd Q play them again to win the 3rd Q, but play to win 2x whatever the 2nd Q lost, play favs on money line and dogs plus the points.

For any teams that lose the 3rd Q play them again to win the 4th Q, but play to win 2x whatever the 3rd Q lost, play favs on the money line and dogs plus the points.

NOTE** this is really, really important. Cap all the games and see if there is a strong reason to pass on a team to win 1 Quarter out of 4 Quarters. One year that we were doing this the Clippers lost all 4 quarters quite often (I think it was the Clippers, might have been someone else), so we never played them. This year teams are failing to win 1 Quarter at an alarming pace (15% but when you figure dogs + the points it is actually a smaller ratio than that), some teams due to injuries, others I just cannot figure it out. I can't tell anyone how to do this capping, I'm not the best in the world at it. But, you get the idea.

Now, since this year teams are losing all 4 Quarters at a higher than usual rate you might want to only play single bets and not double and quadruple up.

Another thing to do is to just play to get a total win among all the teams, so if you played 7 plays in the 2nd Q and 5 won, then you can stop.

Now if you only played dogs you would be in much better shape because you wouldn't be laying big lines and if you lost 3 Quarters it wouldn't really matter.

I hope this helps, if you need to ask any further questions I will answer the best I can.

Curious, I appreciate you taking the time to lay this out for me. Because i'm not betting these yet, I don't review every game but I do make it a happen to scan the boxscores to see how many teams lost all 4 quarters. To me, it seems that it doesn't happen hardly at all but obviously you have been paying attention and it is around 15%. I love option two but as I mentioned earlier, I don't know of a U.S. book that allows this. Bet365 is the only one i know that you can do this. Thanks again and good luck with all of your wagers.

[edh1011]

a good decision to not play the lakers straight up. even if they come back and win, they just aren't playing like they give a shit.

[raiders510]

nice night in here....

[curious]

Let's see how we did, the wife and I were watching the original CSI, some channel has like 24 hours a day CSI. LOL. So, I have no idea about the games.

Originally Posted by curious View Post
New York -270 ML 5.4 units to win 2 units Win +2 units
Atlanta -110 ML 1.65 units to win 1.5 units Win +1.5 Units
Portland -165 ML 7.425 units to win 4.5 units Win +4.5 units
Phoenix -200 ML 3 units to win 1.5 units Loss -3 units
Boston -200 ML 5 units to win 2.5 units Win +2.5 units
Dallas -220 ML 13.2 units to win 6 units Win +6 units

Parlay +290 1.6 to win 4.64 Loss -1.6 units
Phoenix -200 ML
Boston -200 ML
Dallas -220 ML
Lakers -525 ML

5-2 +12 units

Great night, to everyone who followed the picks. to everyone who did not follow the picks.

[curious]

Monday, January 3

I don't like some of these lines, I may put some of these plays into parlays. Here are leans until I see what the lines firm up as. I'll post the actual plays later on Monday. I'm also thinking that a couple of these teams have been playing like crap lately, so I may throw them out, I need to review their last ten games.

Miami
Orlando
Boston
New Orleans
Utah
Denver

[curious]

What is going on with Orlando?

From Dec 4 through Dec 21 Orlando went 1-9, from Dec 23 through Dec 30 Orlando went 5-0. HUH???

Let's look at the teams they played.

Dec 23 San Antonio Spurs -2 198 Won 123 - 101 Win / Over
Dec 25 Boston Celtics -2.5 190 Won 86 - 78 Win / Under
Dec 27 @ New Jersey Nets -6 190 Won 104 - 88 Win / Over
Dec 28 @ Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 194 Won 110 - 95 Win / Over
Dec 30 New York Knicks -7.5 213 Won 112 - 103 Win / Over

Okay, Spurs, Celtics, and Knicks are decent teams. Everybody beats Cavs and Nets.

Dec 4 @ Milwaukee Bucks 4.5 184 Lost 85 - 96 Loss / Under
Dec 6 Atlanta Hawks -7 188 Lost 74 - 80 Loss / Under
Dec 9 @ Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 184 Lost 83 - 97 Loss / Under
Dec 10 @ Utah Jazz 3 192 Lost 105 - 117 Loss / Over
Dec 12 @ Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 190 Won 94 - 85 Win / Under
Dec 14 @ Denver Nuggets -2 205 Lost 94 - 111 Loss / Push
Dec 18 Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 187 Lost 89 - 97 Loss / Under
Dec 20 @ Atlanta Hawks -2.5 190 Lost 81 - 91 Loss / Under
Dec 21 Dallas Mavericks -2.5 191 Lost 99 - 105 Loss / Over

Atlanta, Portland, Utah, Dallas, and Denver are decent.

I don't get it.

What happened to Orlando on Dec 22?