how do you decide how much to put on a moneyline play? I see you aren't doing the 2x ML 1x spread structure anymore
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Sometimes, I do X money line 2X spread on dogs. I quit doing the 2x ML x spread on favs. Sometimes on dogs I just play the spread. I never play the spread on favs.
I look at the win/loss matchup of the two teams, I size the bet based on the matchup. Here is an example.
New Jersey at Washington. New Jersey wins .158 of road games, Washington wins .5 of home games. (I look at these straight up, not ATS). Put the match up like this:
New Jersey .158
Washington .500
Subtract the smaller number from the larger number .500 - .158 = .342. Round to the nearest .05/.1, equals .35.
convert the decimal to an integer 3.5
Bet size is 3.5 units.
Here is another example:
New York and Phoenix. New York wins .588 of road games, Phoenix wins .5 of home games. Because this is so class I then look at who is the dog and I look at the latest games of the two teams. When I look at these games I look at the fav straight up and I look at the dog ATS. New York is 5-1, Phoenix is 2-4 lately. Also, New York is getting +2 1/2 points. So, New York is the play.
New York .588
Phoenix .5
.588 - .5 = .08, round up to .1
Bet size is 1 unit.
Now, since New York is 5-1 and Phoenix is 2-4 and New York is getting points this bet could have been sized larger. I went with 1 unit because I was busy and did not have time to properly size the bet. But this probably should have been a 3 unit bet. But this style of bet sizing is opinion so you might have sized the bet at 2 units, someone else might have left it at 1 unit.
Here is another example
Toronto .278
Boston .882
.882 - .278 = .604 = 6 units
Boston is the play, bet size is 6 units.
Also looking at the latest form we get Toronto 2-5-1 and Boston 3-0. Boston could have been a bit bigger bet size here. Maybe 7 or 8 units.
Sometimes when I look at latest form I don't like the team at all that is being suggested by the win/loss percentage. The other night I did not take Los Angeles because their recent form numbers were bad, so I took the opposing dog + the points. That team won.
You have to look at recent form, you don't want to be laying 30 units to win 5 on a team that has been losing lately. I made a mistake yesterday because I was in a hurry. Utah should not have been the play, Memphis should have been the play, here is why.
Utah win/loss number was .688. Memphis win/loss number was .625. However, Memphis was on a good win streak, 6-2 and Utah was 3-3. But, looking at Utah's games lately they really stink. Memphis has been playing everybody very good. So, Memphis should have been the play here, probably at 3 units.
When two teams are close in win/loss % you have to look closely at the two teams recent form and see if there is a reason to take the home team. I did not have time to do this for Utah/Memphis before I placed the bet, I did that analysis later when I was looking at the Q and H plays. But it was only a 1 unit play so I didn't sweat it.
There is a large amount of available information to help you make these plays correctly. You have to look at latest form, I don't want to risk 30 units to win 5 on a team that has been stinking up the court in the last streak of games.Comment -
I am trying to be more user friendly. I used to not care if people could not find a way to do what I do.
But, we would have a better night taking the Qs and Hs on the money line. As I suspected, so I'm not doing on more Qs and Hs on the spread.
So, I'm going to post the way I play and if someone else cannot do that or does not put in the time to find a place to do it that way then I cannot help them.Comment -
Thanks for taking the time to explain what you look at.
LTComment -
Gonna start doing this myself to help size up units. Thanks muchComment -
Well, I have been trying to cap today's plays for several hours. I don't really see anything I like, if you play these keep the plays small. I REALLY like Memphis, I started to leave Atlanta out, I don't know have a sneaking feeling.
The formula says to risk 8 units on Charlotte -160 because Washington has never won on the road. I don't know, 8 units on Charlotte? Also, I'm supposed to lay 12 units on Atlanta to win 4 units. But, as soon as I saw this play I said "Indiana wins straight up", not sure why I think that. So, it was either stay away from Atlanta and Charlotte completely or put them into a parlay. But these are two of the biggest plays today, so I can't stay away.
Milwaukee +100 ML 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Detroit -125 ML 3.75 units to win 2.5 units
Chicago -130 ML 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Memphis +7 4.4 units to win 4 units (I REALLY like this play)
Utah +105 ML 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Orlando -225 2.25 units to win 1 unit
Parlay +115 8 units to win 9.2 units
Atlanta -300 ML
Charlotte -160 MLComment -
atlanta wins by double digits.Comment -
1 Q and 1 H plays
1st Q
Charlotte -1 1/2 2.2 units to win 2 units
Atlanta -2 2.2 units to win 2 units
Houston -.5 2.2 units to win 2 units
1st H
Charlotte -2 1/2 2.2 units to win 2 units
Atlanta -4 2.2 units to win 2 units
Oklahoma City -4 2.2 units to win 2 units
Houston -1 2.2 units to win 2 units
I really should play these on the money line, if you can get money lines on these play that instead.Comment -
curious...do you play NFL?Comment -
i was expecting a larger play from you on orl based on a post i saw in another thread from you...second thoughts on orl? i took them -5.5Comment -
Sat Jan 8
Adding 2 units to Orlando play
Orlando ML -225 4.5 to win 2Comment -
Sat Jan 8 recap
13-2 +23.65 units
I also won a big parlay in NFL. Seattle ML and Seattle / New Orleans OVER paid +950
YEEEAAAAHHHHHH BAAAABBBYYYY
Hey, where are all those punk ass, honky mo fos who were ragging on me when I had a couple of bad days early on? HMMMMMMMMM???????Comment -
Good job curious...I had a monster day as well...real big monster day
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Sun, Jan 9
LA Clippers -160 ML 1.6 to win 1
Portland +5 1.1 to win 1
LA Lakers -290 2.9 to win 1
Parlay -120 18 to win 15
San Antonio -875 ML
Phoenix -750 ML
Denver -215 MLComment -
Very very good job, thank youComment -
Sun Jan 9, 1st Q and 1st H
NOTE** You are MUCH better off playing these on the ML if you can get them. I'm going to list them on the spread for a while and see how we do, but if you can get ML plays use those, do not use the spread.
1st Q
LA Clippers -1 2.2 to win 2
San Antonio -3 1/2 2.2 to win 2
Denver -1 1/2 2.2 to win 2
La Lakers -2 2.2 to win 2
1st H
LA Clippers -2 2.2 to win 2
San Antonio -6 1/2 2.2 to win 2
Phoenix -5 1/2 2.2 to win 2
Portland +1 1/2 2.2 to win 2
Denver -3 1/2 2.2 to win 2Comment -
Synthetic parlay, I like this one today
Okay, the thing about parlays is that the vig is really high. In sports where the starting time of the games is staggered, like in college basketball, you can make a synthetic parlay and not pay the vig.
Here is how it works. You pick several games that are far enough apart in time that game 1 will be over before game 2 starts which will be over before game 3 starts, etc.
You play game 1 and if it wins you put the entire amount into game 2, and if that wins then you put the entire amount into game 3, etc.
So, let's try it.
Synthetic parlay risking 1.32 to win 4.37
Toronto -4 1/2 -110 1.32 to win 1.2
San Antonio -11 1/2 -110 2.52 to win 2.29
Lakers -6 1/2 -110 4.81 to win 4.37
I HATE spreads but I am doing this on the spread because doing synthetic parlays using money lines is more difficult.Comment -
do you mind revealing your unit size, and how long you have been betting for, might be interested in tailing, thanks.Comment -
I have been betting for 4 or 5 years, I honestly don't remember the start date. I had never followed sports before, had never bet on sports before, and there was a radio DJ in the town where I lived who was always talking about how much he won at sports betting. He also sold a pick service that he ran, you called a phone number typed in a code and got his picks. So, I bought his service and played MLB from the all star break to the end of the year. The guy was completely on fire and I made a good amount. The results of this were unbelievable.
After that the guy totally burned out, he was horrible, I heard that he buys his picks from some other people and he did something to them and they stopped doing business with him. I don't know if that is true or not. The guy did some dishonest things with some of his players (including me) and I stopped following him and taught myself how to cap.
I used to post the $$ amount of my plays but the idiots on SBR gave me so much grief about it that I stopped doing that. I'm not sure why you need to know my unit size. These idiots accused me of lying about my bet size (why would I do that?) and demanded that I post my bet tickets to "prove" my bets. **** those punk ass mother fuckers. I'm not proving anything to anyone, follow my picks or dont' follow them, I don't care.
Lots of people on SBR know me, I have nothing to prove to anyone. I usually hit at >80% but since I play money lines most of the "experts" on SBR say that doesn't count. Of course, none of these "experts" could cap a game if their freaking life depended on it, so I just ignore these idiots.
I don't know why you would tail someone else, learn how to handicap and make your own plays, handicapping isn't that hard really.Comment -
Sun Jan 9 football play
I hit Seattle ML parlayed with Seattle / New Orleans OVER for +950 yesterday.
Someone I trust told me to take the Ravens today. He said to take the spread, but I only do money lines on favs. So, let's do the Ravens for a small play:
Ravens ML -170 5.1 to win 3
He also said to do something with the total but I can't remember what he said, I'll have to find out and make another post.Comment -
I rarely post. I just like to read posts. I came across your thread today by accident, and I have to say i have learned more from reading this thread from the beginning than I have from all the rest of the time on this site. Really informative. I most appreciate the insight into the "how" as opposed to just blindly following.
All i can say is thanks, and keep delivering the goods.Comment -
Thanks.
I cannot do the full time gambling thing any more because I do consulting work for the US military and they keep me busy and this work that I do for them is important. Plus I have a hot young wife and she doesn't like the full time gambling thing.
I will say, however, that for anyone who wants to gamble for a living, it is certainly doable, IF they are willing to put in the time to become a good handicapper. Following others is okay IF they are playing an angle that you don't do. But, a person needs to know how to cap the game that they follow very well BEFORE trailing others. Like, I follow someone on here for NBA totals and he is on fire. I don't know how to cap totals.
Each game is different in terms of the way that you cap it. I don't really understand this but what you use to predict NBA won't work for NFL or MLB. NCAAB and NCAAF require a lot of research and just plain luck (in my opinion). I have made a big pile playing big dogs in NCAAF. I cannot cap NFL or NHL, I don't know why but I follow a few people on very selective plays for NFL, I won't touch NHL.
I switched to money lines in NBA a long time ago because I see too many edges where I can predict the winner but not the final score. With the money line I don't have to predict the final score, only the winner. I can hit > 80% on money lines and I just love these idiots who hit 55% on the spread and they claim that this means more than my record on money lines. Idiots.Comment -
so do you mainly use that home/road record % differential to decide your nba ML bets or do you do other analysis?
Just tryin to pick your brain a little if you don't mind.Comment -
I start with that.
Then I look at latest streak using home + visitor going back as far as I can figure when this streak started. Let's say a team had 3 losses in a row 2 weeks ago and then won most of their games since then. I would say that the current streak started after that 3rd loss.
Then I look at home streak for the home team and away streak for the away team.
What I want is where all 3 matchup. So, if I have a visiting team who is a low winner overall, and on a bad overall streak, and on a bad visitor streak playing a home team with a good win rate overall, on a good overall streak, and a good home streak then I will just subtract the win number and use that after I turn it into unit size.
If, on the other hand the streak says something different then I will either take the other team or lower the bet size, depending on what the streak says.
Let's say that I get a team that is .5 ( win % turned into a decimal) on the road playing a team that is .6 at home. But the away team is 8-0 on the road and the home team is 1-4 at home (streak). I'm going to go with the visitor on that play even though .5 is lower than .6.
Some of my friends have told me that I need to look at injuries but I think the books reflect the injuries in the line so I don't look at that.
Oh, one more thing. I look at SU for favs and ATS for dogs. When I look at the games going backward through time I look at the SU if the team was a fav and the ATS if the team was a dog for that game.Comment -
That's great stuff, thanks. I will keep following and I appreciate when you do this type of analysis. The "why" or "how" is fascinating.
PistolComment -
who are some guys on SBR you follow, either for totals or for other sports? Sorry this is in this thread, but you don't take PM's.Comment -
well curious, I follow Dexter, but I will be looking at your thread too now. wishing you even more sucessComment -
Mind if I inquire as to why you like the Lakers ML? I just can't bring myself to trust them, with the way they've been playing lately.
Thanks in advance, love your thread by the way. I check it daily, although obviously I don't post much.Comment -
thx curious. you're appreciated.
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