Sawyer's NBA Totals Thread 2010-2011 Season

[Sawyer]

sawyer do u think orlando tt goes over 107? im thinking tor has no legit big man, which will open things up for the 3 ball tonight.

I'm expecting Orlando to score 105-107 points.

The number dropped Sawyer, but the initial move was up 1.5 points from 199.5 to 201.

good luck dude....I know you don't use line movement......but you have to look at what the 'market is doing"......especially when the lines start getting "tighter"....just my opinion

Well, I love being on the other side actually. When I have a pick market rejects, I feel more confident. A friend of mine is keeping stats about it and according to these numbers, I have a much better record when line moves against us. When line moves down by 2 points, it doesn't mean that sharps are pounding under. There's so many sharps on world. All sharps can be on Under? Hell, no. Some of them will pick Over. Line movement can be misleading. Unfortunately, many bettors are effected by line movement too much. I know people who change their bet because of line movement.

[No coincidences]

Well, I love being on the other side actually. When I have a pick market rejects, I feel more confident. A friend of mine is keeping stats about it and according to these numbers, I have a much better record when line moves against us. When line moves down by 2 points, it doesn't mean that sharps are pounding under. There's so many sharps on world. All sharps can be on Under? Hell, no. Some of them will pick Over. Line movement can be misleading. Unfortunately, many bettors are effected by line movement too much. I know people who change their bet because of line movement.

I think you have to respect it -- especially RLM and late money.

[Sawyer]

Well, I used to be a believer in RLM. Then, I changed my mind a little bit. Right now, I'm agnostic (undecided) about RLM. It works in hockey and college sports sometimes but I can't rely my picks based on RLM.

Not to mention, RLM is more effective in side bets. I don't think it's effective in totals..

I'm more confident with my system, my numbers then a line movement..

[No coincidences]

Well, I used to be a believer in RLM. Then, I changed my mind a little bit. Right now, I'm agnostic (undecided) about RLM. It works in hockey and college sports sometimes but I can't rely my picks based on RLM.

Not to mention, RLM is more effective in side bets. I don't think it's effective in totals..

I'm more confident with my system, my numbers then a line movement..

I think the confusion comes from people who assume RLM and late movement is 100%. Far from the truth. I will say, though, that it's worth tracking -- as long as it's used for comparison purposes and not gospel.

[demens]

I think you have to respect it -- especially RLM and late money.

RLM is 3-7 ATS since i started tracking it last Thursday. So yeah. **** RLM.

[JR007]

Reverse line movement is iffy...I agree.........I think.....that it would be worth tracking (someone who doesn't mind doing) to see what works for example...a move of two points from the open...a move of three or more etc.....at some point the value is gone.....but there is a reason certain lines get hit early in the morning and others do not....public is not betting in the morning or off the overnite

[TakeIt]

Some of the replies here to a 4 game losing streak are just pathetic. Shows how clueless most of the people here are. Expecting to never have a 4 game losing streak is beyond stupidity

i didn't see any post saying they never expected a 4 game losing streak.

As was stated before if people are complaining about a 4 game losing streak then they indeed have no clue. It's a season long grind and not to expect ups and downs is really unrealistic.

a four game losing streak is 14 to 1 against if you're just flipping coins to pick your plays--6.25% if you're a 55% handicapper then the odds of it happening are 23-1 or about 4%. if you're a 60% capper then odds go up to about 38 to one.

of course it happens. it just doesn't happen too often. to say it has never happened though, is a bit of a stretch and hard to believe. i recently went on a 9 successive game losing streak--511 to 1 against.

by the way, if you're a 55% capper winning four in a row is 10 to 1 against. tough to do, but we don't think about the difficulty because we're biased by the positive result.

[btd]

BOL with tonites picks

[Sawyer]

Guys,

Will have a abra-cadabra magic trick show in few hours. I will move odds in Pinnacle, in front of your eyes.

NC, I'm sure you'll find it interesting

[JR007]

Thanks looking forward to it

[onetrickpony]

thanks sawyer, looking forward to the 6pm winner

[SolidDala]

RLM is an important factor to look at, its more in collage then Pro though, but still, its good to observe rather then ignore.

[lolbear]

sorry, but that analogy isn't even close.

Winning percentage wise, no. Bankroll management wise, yes.

And I guess to correct myself and put it in perspective of my original poker analogy, Sawyer's 60% losing 4 straight compared to a poker player with 20% ITM

.4^4 = .8^x

log (.0256) / log (.8) = x

So 16-17 consecutive tournaments without ITM. If a great poker player start doubting if there is an "edge" or not after a 16-17 stretch without ITM, it will be awful. No need question the system when it's had great track record.

[SolidDala]

I prefer ln

[SolidDala]

..No need question the system when it's had great track record.

This, most have a great 8-2 run before followers blindly tail what is just variance, but at 200 plays you are getting a better feel

[Sawyer]

Still no quarter plays at offshore books. Not available at Pinnacle either. Very strange.

If Pinnacle does not open quarter lines, our show will be postponed

[joanapoker]

RLM is 3-7 ATS since i started tracking it last Thursday. So yeah. **** RLM.

my points are bcs u have the best avatar I've seen.....damn that babe is amazingly unreal

[Nookx]

Since were on the subject. I hope people understand that at 60% long term winrate(Theoretical), we can possibly lose for a whole season and still be making +ev plays. Variance is huge in this just like in poker. That is why a lot of long term bettors will tell you to bet 1% units. Its for a reason. Because of the limited sample size in sports betting there is money to be made because even the odds makers themselves don't have data from "The long run".

[jorge1]

sawyer...props bruh! keep up the work...BOL this weekend

[Sawyer]

My pick is UTA-ATL 1st Quarter Under 49. Picked U49 @ 5Dimes.

It's 48 @ Pinnacle but let's see if we will move it a little bit. Would be much better if it was 49 or 48½ at Pinny. It may not move too much since it's 48 already but let's give it a shot!

Move Lines, Move!!

[Sawyer]

Check out Pinnacle now..

Presto!

[Sawyer]

Moved from 1.917 to 1.833. (Approximately -109 to -120)

[SolidDala]

[SolidDala]

waiting for drunk Americans to pound the over 199.5 but remembered its way to early there and line switched from +100 to -102 instead ...

[Sawyer]

Placed my wager at another book,

But why Pinnacle moved the line?

Let's keep it secret. Let it remain mysterious..

GL Everybody!

1 Quarter Total Play, 2 Total Play, BoL!

[sapidoc]

Placed my wager at another book, But why Pinnacle moved the line? Let's keep it secret. Let it remain mysterious.. GL Everybody! 1 Quarter Total Play, 2 Total Play, BoL!

do you know why?

[Mr. Yo]

My pick is UTA-ATL 1st Quarter Under 49. Picked U49 @ 5Dimes. It's 48 @ Pinnacle but let's see if we will move it a little bit. Would be much better if it was 49 or 48½ at Pinny. It may not move too much since it's 48 already but let's give it a shot! Move Lines, Move!!

So based on the movement, you'd still bet 48 U??

[hockeynut]

I like the Phoenix over, but not so much Orlando and Toronto U at the line of 199.5 where it's at for me. These two teams have gone over that 6 of the last 7 meetings.

[Sawyer]

do you know why?

Of course, LoL. I caused the line movement.

Did you see the picture I placed before I place my bet?

I can move quarter lines but I can't move totals too much, at least for now.

So based on the movement, you'd still bet 48 U??

49 was a very good line. 48 is not bad either but 48½ would be better. Try to find 48½.

[monkeyking]

sawyer, are you one of those people who have like an army of people betting for you?

[Sawyer]

Just noticed that 5Dimes moved it to 48 too.

It means Under 48 will win %100? Hell, no. These teams can easily score above 50+ in a quarter but it was a EV+ bet imo. We'll talk about this EV+ thing later.

[sapidoc]

Of course, LoL. I caused the line movement. Did you see the picture I placed before I place my bet? I can move quarter lines but I can't move totals too much, at least for now. 49 was a very good line. 48 is not bad either but 48½ would be better. Try to find 48½.

Yea, but this is epic imo. Like seriously i can't describe how amazing this is.

Where do u live cause if its near me we need to grab a beer sometime!

[Sawyer]

I love beer! But unfortunately I'm living in another continent, Europe.

When I pay a visit to Vegas, let's drink a beer!
Let's drink with these chicks, if possible.

[nskoex]

Sawyer what country are you from?

[sapidoc]

I love beer! But unfortunately I'm living in another continent, Europe. When I pay a visit to Vegas, let's drink a beer! Let's drink with these chicks, if possible.

Hahaha for sure! Let me know when you go there! Lots of them girls at the Hofbraeuhaus in Vegas!