Sawyer's NBA Totals Thread 2010-2011 Season

**adam3401** · 11-13-10, 04:21 AM

Still looking forward toyour picks Sawyer. I've been following before the 0-6, I know you'll do fine in the long run. Still excited as ever for this NBA season. Lets get em tomorrow

**joanapoker** · 11-13-10, 04:56 AM

To Sawyer:

(copy post from my thread)

I was trying a new approach regarding public bets and line movement offshore and casinos but maybe the data is just not big enough and as a result I'm being slaughter!!!

The totals this year are just so dam hard to cap:

examples (closing lines):

NOVEMBER GAME ------- TOTAL SCORED ----- DIFFERENCE

12th) POR @ OKC (194) ------ 218 ------------- +24
12th) UTA @ ATL (200) ------ 176 ------------- -24
12th) SAC @ PHX (215.5)----- 192 ------------- -23.5
11th) BOS @ MIA (186.5)----- 219 ------------- +32.5
10th) HOU @ WAS (209.5)---- 189 ------------- -20.5
10th) MIN @ SAC (214.5)----- 187 ------------- -27.5

this are some few examples that happens every day! I mean, I know that not all games are gonna be close on the line but this much every day with differences over/under 20 points?? Wtf is happening with the lines they put??

**Dark Horse** · 11-13-10, 04:59 AM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Lol, and what do you think the max sustainable win-rate is in sportsbetting?

57-58% ATS is (the Billy Walters level of) excellence. Over the long haul. Show that to a pro and he'll salute you. Show it to an amateur and he'll think you don't know sh*t.

**Czu81** · 11-13-10, 04:59 AM

[quote=ScottLocke;7400293]

Originally posted by taggressive

Nice to see someone here that understands variance, downswing etc. etc. I play poker for a living too, and lol these kinds of losses are pretty normal in the long haul. 30-40 plays does not give any clue to us about Sawyer's system. After 500 we can say something. And I believe after 500 games he will be +. Lol and I understand now very well why people lose to bookies when I see guys in this forum that have no clue about variance, +ev plays, downswing. Thanks poker at least for teaching me these basics

[/quote

Chalking up every loss to variance is not very smart.

+1

I learned variance from poker too.

**Dark Horse** · 11-13-10, 05:13 AM

Originally posted by joanapoker

The totals this year are just so dam hard to cap:

examples (closing lines):

NOVEMBER GAME ------- TOTAL SCORED ----- DIFFERENCE

12th) POR @ OKC (194) ------ 218 ------------- +24
12th) UTA @ ATL (200) ------ 176 ------------- -24
12th) SAC @ PHX (215.5)----- 192 ------------- -23.5
11th) BOS @ MIA (186.5)----- 219 ------------- +32.5
10th) HOU @ WAS (209.5)---- 189 ------------- -20.5
10th) MIN @ SAC (214.5)----- 187 ------------- -27.5

this are some few examples that happens every day! I mean, I know that not all games are gonna be close on the line but this much every day with differences over/under 20 points?? Wtf is happening with the lines they put??

The NBA has different chapters to its season. Right now, until about mid-December, teams are finding out who they are. Later in the season there is greater stability, because teams have a better idea of who they are, and can execute their game plan more effectively. This early many are just trying to find out what that game plan is. There are still plenty of profitable angles, but totals are easier later in the season (at least for me).

**dynamitappletini** · 11-13-10, 05:17 AM

I learned variance in school and university but that seems to be uncool around a sports betting forum

Originally posted by ScottLocke

So you would say the Phx/Sac over was the +EV side of the bet tonight?

I just think you're missing the point.
He has a system, not a "feeling/not feeling this bet" bullsh*t... He has to bet what the system comes up with and I don't know whether he plays all of the system picks and posts them but you see there is no wrong side in the system...
Just because the Sac Phx Over was missed by many points doesn't mean it didn't fit as well to the system as any other winning play.
Many factors can lead to such an outcome of the game even if his stats fit perfectly.

Just let the man do his work, you can watch instead of tail to be on the safe side, but I'd rather be on the winning side with James

**Sawyer** · 11-13-10, 06:44 AM

Pho vs Sac Over Lost
Tor vs Orl Under Lost

Record Updated. Total System is 23-20 so far this season.

**Sawyer** · 11-13-10, 06:47 AM

Dear All,

Bad results lately. I want you to know something. It never happened before. I think something is wrong. Maybe because it's early in the season. You know selections are not based on my opinions, all picks are based on a system. Pure mechanical. Zero emotion.

However, I'm confident with this system. This system managed to pick %61 winners last season over 210+ bets..

So I believe in my system. But there must be an explanation for bad results. As I mentioned above, it has been only 18 days since season has started. Last season, I started posting my plays through Jan. I'm expecting much better results through Dec-Jan. So I guess it's time to have a break. I'll be tracking results and will start posting again through December..

No problem with haters at all, I don't even read their posts, LoL.

Thank you for your Support,

Regards,

Sawyer

**joanapoker** · 11-13-10, 06:53 AM

Thx dark horse for your insight!

**alanspoil** · 11-13-10, 06:53 AM

23-20 record: positive, so no problem

**DJStroke** · 11-13-10, 07:02 AM

@Sawyer yeah I agree with taking a break... unfortunately for I me I hopped on in the last 8 bets or so...

**cala56** · 11-13-10, 07:05 AM

See you in december, Good luck professor

**smallbluedonkey** · 11-13-10, 07:36 AM

A break is the best idea and this demonstrates to me that Sawyer knows his stuff:

If the system truly does have a 60% win rate in the long term, the chance of having a record of 23-20 (or better) over 43 plays is about 76.4% (i.e. there's about a 23.6% chance of starting the season with a record poorer than 23-20), so maybe its just an 'unlucky' start to the season.

However, to go 6-0 over 6 trials where you win rate should be 60% at each play should only occur about 0.4% for any set of six picks. It may indeed be that there is less of an edge early in the season, so the prudent thing to do is lay off until he has verified the system some more.

to Sawyer. I look forward to your return!

**SolidDala** · 11-13-10, 08:00 AM

Sounds like a smart move while you are ahead Bud. Maybe check up on additional variables for nov-dec for upcoming season. Better to track november bets on paper before betting with real paper I guess, it is still 23-20 though

#1868, Always nice to see someone who understand binomial distribution

**Sawyer** · 11-13-10, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

57-58% ATS is (the Billy Walters level of) excellence. Over the long haul. Show that to a pro and he'll salute you. Show it to an amateur and he'll think you don't know sh*t.

Agreed with Dark Horse here. According to amateurs, %57-58 is not a sexy winning percentage. They're interested in %70 which is impossible over the long haul.

**maximum** · 11-13-10, 08:49 AM

Good riddance...

**thebestthereis** · 11-13-10, 08:51 AM

if you are not 90% everyone should kill themselves and everyone they know, then nobody will be in here complaining, what a joke. sawyer all is appreciated no matter what.

**I am Happy** · 11-13-10, 08:53 AM

Thank you for what you do Sawyer. As always, enjoy your thread, pics, picks and look forward to you regaining your % within good time.

**MrTop** · 11-13-10, 09:03 AM

The 23-20 record of Sawyer is a very small snapshot of the NBA season. The NHL picks 2-5 and the soccer was 0-1. There were some leans in there as well....some won and lost.

If one does pick games for a long period of time the true average of the handicapper comes into play. I think some very minor adjustments if any are needed with Sawyer's model... but to expect 60% is reaching for the stars. Last year might of been the high note of the model.... but like I said the more true average of his selections is coming into play.

I did not mean any disrespect to Sawyer at all...... I am sorry... it was all in fun... hey I lost too....I do not play all of Sawyers plays... only the ones that I agree with. 53% is winning for me since I lay -105.... I still will take it.

MrTop

**Muggy** · 11-13-10, 09:39 AM

On to the next one. It's still early in the season, plenty of time left.

**Club** · 11-13-10, 09:43 AM

Obviously you know you system and whether taking a break is a good idea, but I don't see anything wrong with a 23-20 record. It'a actually pretty good for early in the season in such a tough league.

**WhyWhat55** · 11-13-10, 10:00 AM

This sucks, just when I started tailing him! I'll be waiting Sawyer!

**bsebal7** · 11-13-10, 10:48 AM

Don't Sweat it...

Sawyer is a class act.... posts his plays and tries to help many people in this forum. There is a reason that less than 1% of sports investors are successful.... its because they don't have proper money management. That is not Sawyer's problem. I have been there and done that.. I used to lose a few here and there.. then double up... sometimes even triple up... Sawyer has mentioned on many occassions on the forum to bet 5% at the most on any given play... if you do it full time... bet even less.. maybe 3%... if you bet 5% you would have lost 30% of your BR... which leaves you plenty to kick ass with once his plays start hitting again, which will happen. He doesn't force anybody to play his plays.... he caps his own plays and shares them... simple as that... Sawyer is a class act and for the haters... learn how to use proper money management... and check this thread back out in a few months when he's back to 60% again.... if you have any money in your bankroll left from lack of money management...

**JR007** · 11-13-10, 11:04 AM

It happens......maybe run some kind of "regression analysis" to backtest your system....not a systems guy so i don't know...thanks for sharing.....you have my support

**Wojo** · 11-13-10, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

57-58% ATS is (the Billy Walters level of) excellence. Over the long haul. Show that to a pro and he'll salute you. Show it to an amateur and he'll think you don't know sh*t.

This is one of the smartest posts I have seen.

This man knows what he is talking about.

Wojo

**Nookx** · 11-13-10, 11:14 AM

Its a sad day for the NBA handicapping forum here at SBR.

**Sawyer** · 11-13-10, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Club

Obviously you know you system and whether taking a break is a good idea, but I don't see anything wrong with a 23-20 record. It'a actually pretty good for early in the season in such a tough league.

Originally posted by alanspoil

23-20 record: positive, so no problem

Thank you fellas but anything under %55 is no good in my book. I would be hapy with %53-54 but this system hit %61 over 216 plays between Jan-June. So at least, I'm expecting winning percentage to stay in %57-59 range.

**jayson14** · 11-13-10, 11:17 AM

if you are still going to run your system and track result then i believe you should post the plays. We in the forum can choose whether to break with you or not. bad runs happen to the best of systems and usually rebound with serious winning runs. I dont want to miss the rally, so if you could post the plays that fall into your system we would appreciate it

thanks
jason

**VBPro7** · 11-13-10, 11:19 AM

Will look for you in DEC Sawyer!

**Nookx** · 11-13-10, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Thank you fellas but anything under %55 is no good in my book. I would be hapy with %53-54 but this system hit %61 over 216 plays between Jan-June. So at least, I'm expecting winning percentage to stay in %57-59 range.

Sawyer, your longterm winrate and your winrate over 43 games can vary drastically. Even with a 60% winrate longterm you will have loosing stretches for far far far longer then 43 games. I can do the exact math if your interested but from looking at it briefly you need to be ready for winning %'s of less 50% for sample sizes of 100+ games. We are not even close to that.

**GGZOLA** · 11-13-10, 11:30 AM

another thread followed, tailed and jinxed; if any bookies want me to jinx people's thread to hit zero percent pm me I work on comission

**GGZOLA** · 11-13-10, 11:31 AM

no hard feelings....sawyer thanks for your time and efforts for what its worth...

**GoggsViggs** · 11-13-10, 11:54 AM

Thanks Sawyer.

**adam3401** · 11-13-10, 12:03 PM

Thanks for everything Sawyer. Look forward to your return

**ScottLocke** · 11-13-10, 12:51 PM

here's some plays for you guys tonight

Orlando/NJ Under 190.5
Boston/Memphis Over 196
Portland/New Orleans Under 189

I know you guys are gonna hate, but i'll be sure to bump this when I go 3-0 or 2-1