Sawyer's NBA Totals Thread 2010-2011 Season

sapidoc · 11-12-10, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by saints7011

#1743 , GL on your under play...

Damn I missed it............ thanks hope we still pull it off

Duby · 11-12-10, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by MrTop

six straight losers........

I dont think this is very useful. With all due respect to Sawyer keep this negativity out of here!

sapidoc · 11-12-10, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by MrTop

it is all in fun.........hey I lost too on this one....this one happened to move right in our favor......generally models that move against the sharp plays do not do good I said that from the beginning ......

then you must hate the over coming up.... we are all against the sharp money tonight!

Sawyer says its better for us though, so I hope he's right.

taggressive · 11-12-10, 09:15 PM

lets win this last match, a good weekend is waiting us...

sporx · 11-12-10, 09:17 PM

sawyer is an excellent tipster.I am sure , he will be + in the end.But, betting means loosing for 90% of us still.

MrTop · 11-12-10, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

then you must hate the over coming up.... we are all against the sharp money tonight!

Sawyer says its better for us though, so I hope he's right.

we played it before the movement.........just the wrong game........ ..the total was just too low......

ScottLocke · 11-12-10, 10:14 PM

So Phoenix is shooting 56% and this game is still way below pace for the over. Pretty safe to say whatever stats he uses isn't very reliable til later in the year. Not too much to go off of right now.

Nookx · 11-12-10, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

So Phoenix is shooting 56% and this game is still way below pace for the over. Pretty safe to say whatever stats he uses isn't very reliable til later in the year. Not too much to go off of right now.

Wrong. Please look up variance.

ScottLocke · 11-12-10, 10:23 PM

LOL I understand variance, you can tell if your on the right side or not when the game is over most of the time though win or lose.

taraftar · 11-12-10, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by MrTop

six straight losers........

Ebenin amı Sir...

Nookx · 11-12-10, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

LOL I understand variance, you can tell if your on the right side or not when the game is over most of the time though win or lose.

I guess you don't understand variance because its not variance within in a single game that matters. Its variance in the long run. For example if today repeated itself over 1000 times would the score of the phoenix/sac game be over 215 > 52.4% of the time. Then it is a + ev play in the long run. Your going to have lots of streaks within those 1000 games where you lose multiple games in a row.

EDIT: im using 1,000 games as an example but in fact in using it to represent the long run when even 1,000 games in nowhere close to the long run in sports betting.

ScottLocke · 11-12-10, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by Nookx

I guess you don't understand variance because its not variance within in a single game that matters. Its variance in the long run. For example if today repeated itself over 1000 times would the score of the phoenix/sac game be over 215 > 52.4% of the time. Then it is a + ev play in the long run. Your going to have lots of streaks within those 1000 games where you lose multiple games in a row.

Wow.... You can't actually believe you can put an exact number on it like that lol. I play poker for a living, so I think I understand variance as much as it could possibly be understood.

Nookx · 11-12-10, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by ScottLocke

Wow.... You can't actually believe you can put an exact number on it like that lol. I play poker for a living, so I think I understand variance as much as it could possibly be understood.

I play poker for a living as well. Like i said I was dumbing it down so maybe you would understand it.

sporx · 11-12-10, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by MrTop

six straight losers........

Seven deadly sins

adam3401 · 11-12-10, 10:42 PM

I'm just praying for overtime..

70kgman · 11-12-10, 10:47 PM

Run for the hills Sawyer. It appears your legion of fans have turned on you.

maximum · 11-12-10, 10:48 PM

0-6... I think this is the time to fade sawyer... damn..

sporx · 11-12-10, 10:48 PM

utopic scenario

Originally posted by adam3401

I'm just praying for overtime..

RAVENSFAN · 11-12-10, 10:49 PM

Im praying for 20/21 like INDIANA did the other night PLUS OT

adam3401 · 11-12-10, 10:53 PM

Sawyer won me money last season and I'm positive he can do it again this season. Again it is long run that matters, give the guy a break. I hate when people knock on a guy who does this for free

ScottLocke · 11-12-10, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by twarby

hes needed to double overtime miracles for 2 picks to get up already.. hes been way off the mark with most of his losses.
System clearly not designed for start of the year.

and most of the wins have been nailbiters

Bbr · 11-12-10, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by adam3401

Sawyer won me money last season and I'm positive he can do it again this season. Again it is long run that matters, give the guy a break. I hate when people knock on a guy who does this for free

NO SHIT well said. ITs fkn free, you didint pay for it, sawyer does it out of his own gd will.

BetaB · 11-12-10, 11:03 PM

just don't tail or fade his pick but stop b*tching.

cala56 · 11-12-10, 11:06 PM

He is clearly long time winner. Keep working.

taggressive · 11-12-10, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by Nookx

I play poker for a living as well. Like i said I was dumbing it down so maybe you would understand it.

Nice to see someone here that understands variance, downswing etc. etc. I play poker for a living too, and lol these kinds of losses are pretty normal in the long haul. 30-40 plays does not give any clue to us about Sawyer's system. After 500 we can say something. And I believe after 500 games he will be +. Lol and I understand now very well why people lose to bookies when I see guys in this forum that have no clue about variance, +ev plays, downswing. Thanks poker at least for teaching me these basics

oChRoNiCo · 11-12-10, 11:10 PM

If you guys are so good then cap your own games Sawyer never held a gun to any of your heads and made you bet any games if you like his plays tail if you dont then fade its that simple but coming in here crying about a bad night or bad run does nothing for any of us losing is going to happen in this buisness when you consider going %60 amazing clip do you still realize you lose %40 of the time just calm down and let the man do what he does!

sentetiyen · 11-12-10, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by cala56

He is clearly long time winner. Keep working.

this ..

ScottLocke · 11-12-10, 11:15 PM

[quote=taggressive;7400139]Nice to see someone here that understands variance, downswing etc. etc. I play poker for a living too, and lol these kinds of losses are pretty normal in the long haul. 30-40 plays does not give any clue to us about Sawyer's system. After 500 we can say something. And I believe after 500 games he will be +. Lol and I understand now very well why people lose to bookies when I see guys in this forum that have no clue about variance, +ev plays, downswing. Thanks poker at least for teaching me these basics

[/quote

Chalking up every loss to variance is not very smart.

taggressive · 11-12-10, 11:23 PM

[quote=ScottLocke;7400293]

Originally posted by taggressive

Nice to see someone here that understands variance, downswing etc. etc. I play poker for a living too, and lol these kinds of losses are pretty normal in the long haul. 30-40 plays does not give any clue to us about Sawyer's system. After 500 we can say something. And I believe after 500 games he will be +. Lol and I understand now very well why people lose to bookies when I see guys in this forum that have no clue about variance, +ev plays, downswing. Thanks poker at least for teaching me these basics

[/quote Chalking up every loss to variance is not very smart.

lets talk again at the end of season

twarby · 11-12-10, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by sentetiyen

this ..

long term winner in the 2nd half of the season maybe
no proof he has any edge at the start... his picks arnt just losing, their falling miles away.

spankmythighs · 11-12-10, 11:26 PM

Well, I'll still stick around but only because I keep hitting my NHL picks. Hey guys come on over and follow my NHL picks. Had another positive night. http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...long-baby.html

ScottLocke · 11-12-10, 11:32 PM

[quote=taggressive;7400393]

Originally posted by ScottLocke

lets talk again at the end of season

Obv he's a good capper. I don't know if he is much better than break even this early in the season though. I think he'll get better as the season goes on and should start hitting his normal 60% once January arrives.

superman613 · 11-12-10, 11:32 PM

this little losing streak is actually a good thing...gonna get rid of all the losers betting there whole roll every night

...and maximum...dont get mad at sawyer just because you blew all your $20 dollar roll in the past three days...its the end of the week so im sure you will get your $20 allowance again and you can re deposit and start all over again

Duby · 11-12-10, 11:38 PM

Hey Max,

your the perfect defination of LOSER!

Get a life

Nookx · 11-12-10, 11:38 PM

I think its funny how so many people are saying "Its obvious sawyers method doesn't work at the beginning of the season". Is it? How do u know what variables sawyers uses in his system? How do you know that this isn't just a run bad? No one was complaining last week when he was at 70% to start the season. overall he is still over 50% and people are crying. Absolutely hilarious. There are professional services that have hit in the low 40's and charge people for the picks, and this is for the whole season!