Sawyer's NBA Totals Thread 2010-2011 Season

[ScottLocke]

I think its funny how so many people are saying "Its obvious sawyers method doesn't work at the beginning of the season". Is it? How do u know what variables sawyers uses in his system? How do you know that this isn't just a run bad? No one was complaining last week when he was at 70% to start the season. overall he is still over 50% and people are crying. Absolutely hilarious. There are professional services that have hit in the low 40's and charge people for the picks, and this is for the whole season!

So you would say the Phx/Sac over was the +EV side of the bet tonight?

[bill2266]

ouch rough night good luck tommorow

[Nookx]

No, im not saying that because I don't know. Remember even if sawyers system comes up with 60% winners that means 40% of the time hes making a bad bet. (Don't forget both these are theoretical winrates).

EDIT: Bad = loosing bet

[ScottLocke]

No, im not saying that because I don't know. Remember even if sawyers system comes up with 60% winners that means 40% of the time hes making a bad bet. (Don't forget both these are theoretical winrates).

Uhhh what, do you understand sportsbetting at all? If your coming up with 60% winners that does not necessarily make the other 40% bad bets. I'd say 65% is pretty much the ceiling long term for sports betting, so theoretically if your hitting 65% of your picks all of your picks would be on the right side in the long run.

To even hit a 60% long run winrate, I would guess that only 10% of ones bets would be bad ones.

[taggressive]

He is still 52,2% what is all these crying about (maximum can cry, he is a baby). Lol, does anyone lost his entire bankroll because of Sawyer? NO. The ones who tail him from the beggining are break even so far. Babies plz get out of this thread and play with your toys, betting and gambling are for tough and wise guys. You can criticise someone, but not like that baby maximum...

[cgull]

Its gambling children

[Nookx]

Uhhh what, do you understand sportsbetting at all? If your coming up with 60% winners that does not necessarily make the other 40% bad bets. I'd say 65% is pretty much the ceiling long term for sports betting, so theoretically if your hitting 65% of your picks all of your picks would be on the right side in the long run.

To even hit a 60% long run winrate, I would guess that only 10% of ones bets would be bad ones.

I didn't mean BAD bet, i meant loosing bet.

[ScottLocke]

I didn't mean BAD bet, i meant loosing bet.

Ohhh, well there's a pretty big difference there. Pretty safe to say the Phoenix over was a bad bet. Then again, i'd say the Orlando under tonight was a good bet tonight and he got unlucky.

[BankrollBuilding]

Uhhh what, do you understand sportsbetting at all? If your coming up with 60% winners that does not necessarily make the other 40% bad bets. I'd say 65% is pretty much the ceiling long term for sports betting, so theoretically if your hitting 65% of your picks all of your picks would be on the right side in the long run.

To even hit a 60% long run winrate, I would guess that only 10% of ones bets would be bad ones.

65% longterm LOL

and you talk down to other people, just hilarious. I like it how youre the source on what is a "good bet" and a "bad bet." Amazing the morons like you who come out and post when dude starts losing

and ya sure you play poker for a living

[ScottLocke]

65% longterm LOL

and you talk down to other people, just hilarious. I like it how youre the source on what is a "good bet" and a "bad bet." Amazing the morons like you who come out and post when dude starts losing

and ya sure you play poker for a living

Lol, and what do you think the max sustainable win-rate is in sportsbetting?

[Nookx]

Ohhh, well there's a pretty big difference there. Pretty safe to say the Phoenix over was a bad bet. Then again, i'd say the Orlando under tonight was a good bet tonight and he got unlucky.

Yes there is a big difference, that was my bad. But i just have to disagree a tad on your other comments. You can't tell whether or not phoenix vs sac was a bad bet based off a sample size of 1. Maybe this was in the lowest 5% range where its gonna end up this low. There is no way of knowing. I do agree that it leans towards a bad bet but there's still no way to tell for sure.

[BankrollBuilding]

Lol, and what do you think the max sustainable win-rate is in sportsbetting?

Im not really gonna have a conversation with you about this cuz I can tell you already know everything, its obvious by your condescending and arrogant attitude. What I will say is 65% sustainable winrate longterm is laughable, almost as laughable as you trying to say you play poker for a living when youre here bashing the guy over 6 losers.

If you dont like his picks and youre so brilliant with sportsbetting then why are you posting here??? Oh I know why, cuz youre the typical internet clown who bashes guys when they lose, lies about their personal life, and tries to "educate" people all the while spewing nonsense.

Congratulations, you are officially a "square" . . . . and probably a total friggen donk at the tables too

Site you play on and screenname??? But Im sure that'll be some big secret and you cant tell us LOL

[ScottLocke]

Yes there is a big difference, that was my bad. But i just have to disagree a tad on your other comments. You can't tell whether or not phoenix vs sac was a bad bet based off a sample size of 1. Maybe this was in the lowest 5% range where its gonna end up this low. There is no way of knowing. I do agree that it leans towards a bad bet but there's still no way to tell for sure.

There is no way of knowing for sure, but you can def get a good idea. Reviewing your bets unbiased after the game is a very important part of being a winning capper IMO. This game had a VERY slow and very conservative approach to the game by both teams. The total was actually lucky to get as high as it did since we had 34 offensive rebounds in the game which is ridiculously high. The pace at which this game was played this game would never go over without OT.

[A's Fan]

keep at it sawyer, bets are obv + EV longterm, and this is just variance. I am also a pro poker player who understands this well, please dont leave or stop posting because people dont understand what +ev bets or variance are. There are many of us who appreciate what you do.

[Nookx]

There is no way of knowing for sure, but you can def get a good idea. Reviewing your bets unbiased after the game is a very important part of being a winning capper IMO. This game had a VERY slow and very conservative approach to the game by both teams. The total was actually lucky to get as high as it did since we had 34 offensive rebounds in the game which is ridiculously high. The pace at which this game was played this game would never go over without OT.

I think your missing the point of how important sample size is. The sample size is 1. Next time Sac plays phoenix at home they could score 230 super easily. The variance between specific games themselves is HUGE! Everything you said applies to how tonights game played out, and we cant tell if that's the norm or if its more an an outlier since our sample size is 1.

[Wojo]

Pretty safe to say the Phoenix over was a bad bet.

Pretty easy to say this after the fact. So, I guess you knew not to bet it? Or were you smart enough to take the under, since it was a bad bet?

Open your mouth BEFORE the game goes off, not AFTER.

THEN, you will have some credibility.

[ScottLocke]

Im not really gonna have a conversation with you about this cuz I can tell you already know everything, its obvious by your condescending and arrogant attitude. What I will say is 65% sustainable winrate longterm is laughable, almost as laughable as you trying to say you play poker for a living when youre here bashing the guy over 6 losers.

If you dont like his picks and youre so brilliant with sportsbetting then why are you posting here??? Oh I know why, cuz youre the ypical internet clown who bashes guys when they lose, lies about their personal life, and tries to "educate" people all the whill spewing nonsense.

Congratulations, you are officially a "square" . . . . and probably a total friggen donk at the tables too

Site you play on and screenname??? But Im sure that'll be some big secret and you cant tell us LOL

So basically you are just spewing a bunch of bs with nothing to really go off of at. You say 65% is ridiculous, but you can't tell me what you think the ceiling is. Ask any real capper who's been doing this awhile. None will give you higher than 65%, maybe a few overly optimistic ones will give you 70%, but that's it.

Also i'm not bashing him at all over 6 losers, I actually said the one was on the correct side IMO, I just stated I don;t think his edge is as large as he thinks it is this early in the season. I only bet NFL and i'm far from a square lol. Not having the best season this year, but i'm still up a good amount.

I don't see what my poker sn has to do with anything and i'm not posting it on a public forum, if you really want it you can pm me. I'm up a good amount but I live in Vegas now and don't play online nearly as much anymore.

[ScottLocke]

Pretty easy to say this after the fact. So, I guess you knew not to bet it? Or were you smart enough to take the under, since it was a bad bet? Open your mouth BEFORE the game goes off, not AFTER. THEN, you will have some credibility.

I took the over cause I am not very good at betting totals and wanted a sweat tonight. You guys are all really over-reacting when you all really have less of a clue than I do.

[Nookx]

I took the over cause I am not very good at betting totals and wanted a sweat tonight. You guys are all really over-reacting when you all really have less of a clue than I do.

Cmon Scott! I like you, why you gotta insult us?

[BankrollBuilding]

So basically you are just spewing a bunch of bs with nothing to really go off of at. You say 65% is ridiculous, but you can't tell me what you think the ceiling is. Ask any real capper who's been doing this awhile. None will give you higher than 65%, maybe a few overly optimistic ones will give you 70%, but that's it. Also i'm not bashing him at all over 6 losers, I actually said the one was on the correct side IMO, I just stated I don;t think his edge is as large as he thinks it is this early in the season. I only bet NFL and i'm far from a square lol. Not having the best season this year, but i'm still up a good amount. I don't see what my poker sn has to do with anything and i'm not posting it on a public forum, if you really want it you can pm me. I'm up a good amount but I live in Vegas now and don't play online nearly as much anymore.

whatever you say pal

Im the one spewing nonsense yet you say 65% is sustainable longterm and that you play poker for a living but wont (as expected) list your screenname (but even if u did u really dont play online anymore but youre up soo much and live in Vegas now blah blah blah).

Like the guy above said, come in BEFORE the game and tell us how awful of a pick they are. Any moron can come in after the game and say "oh ya he was on the wrong side." Thats what total friggen idiots do and thats exactly what youre doing. And quit lying to people about playing poker for a living also, its soooooo obvious you dont so just stop. It doesnt make you look cool like you think it does

Now come back and tell me how youve CRUSHED sports betting for years and how you play live and just kick ass and blah blah blah. Noone buys it. All you are is some tool who thinks 65% is sustainable longterm, telling guys they were on the "wrong side" AFTER the game, and lying about playing poker for a living. Get lost . . . .. or go back to Covers

YEESH

[nskoex]

max is such a loser
im pretty sure hes betting not more than 5$ per game

[bozeman]

show me the person in the world who has never had a 0-6 record in his lifetime, everybody has. Sawyer has been always good.

[ScottLocke]

whatever you say pal

Im the one spewing nonsense yet you say 65% is sustainable longterm and that you play poker for a living but wont (as expected) list your screenname (but even if u did u really dont play online anymore but youre up soo much and live in Vegas now blah blah blah).

Like the guy above said, come in BEFORE the game and tell us how awful of a pick they are. Any moron can come in after the game and say "oh ya he was on the wrong side." Thats what total friggen idiots do and thats exactly what youre doing. And quit lying to people about playing poker for a living also, its soooooo obvious you dont so just stop. It doesnt make you look cool like you think it does

Now come back and tell me how youve CRUSHED sports betting for years and how you play live and just kick ass and blah blah blah. Noone buys it. All you are is some tool who thinks 65% is sustainable longterm, telling guys they were on the "wrong side" AFTER the game, and lying about playing poker for a living. Get lost . . . .. or go back to Covers

YEESH

You still haven't answered my question. Amazing how little sense you make. Why would I lie about playing poker lol. I never said I crushed sports. And just explain how its so obvious, also pm me your poker sn and maybe we can play some heads, its been a bad week and I could use the extra cash.

[JW Cash]

Hey Sawyer....

You understand the nuances of sports investing more than 95% of the people
on this forum.....

I dont know how you can tolerate what people have to say after you have a bad run....

...these are the same people you are trying to help.....

I tried with a tennis pick thread and stopped it after 6 days ...even though I was
profitable ......just couldnt stand what the people had to say.....

Your a stud man.......you have more tolerance than I could manifest........

[BankrollBuilding]

You still haven't answered my question. Amazing how little sense you make. Why would I lie about playing poker lol. I never said I crushed sports. And just explain how its so obvious, also pm me your poker sn and maybe we can play some heads, its been a bad week and I could use the extra cash.

Just keep thinking you can go 65% longterm pal

Also, PM me if you want my sn (see how dumb that sounds) lol

Good nite guys, argued with the children enough tonite

[Wojo]

I took the over cause I am not very good at betting totals and wanted a sweat tonight. You guys are all really over-reacting when you all really have less of a clue than I do.

Impressed you admitting betting the over.

I'm not over-reacting to anything. I just thought it was interesting that you stated the Pho-Sac over was not a +EV bet. Again, after the fact commentary.

Most professional bettors, if they are honest, will not tell anybody they are hitting over 60%. Anybody who says they are hitting 75% long term is totally full of crap.

I am amazed that people who post in this forum are throwing crap at Sawyer.
They don't have a clue to what sports betting is all about.

On the same thought, Sawyer has a great record over a season or less (don't really know, I've never paid any attention to him). Anybody who thinks someone who has won at a good rate over less than 200 (I think) picks is not very wise.

GL with your poker, Scott. (and the other poker players who have posted here)

[lakerboy]

Wow lots of hate in here. I dont even know what Sawyers picks are or have been but there is a lot of upset people in here.

[Pauulzcappin]

When you follow someone you tail at your own risk, stop crying because he missed a few in a row. If you don't trust him or his system then just don't tail or fade him.

The wager is your responsibility when you place it, now keep this thread clean.

[ScottLocke]

Impressed you admitting betting the over.

I'm not over-reacting to anything. I just thought it was interesting that you stated the Pho-Sac over was not a +EV bet. Again, after the fact commentary.

Most professional bettors, if they are honest, will not tell anybody they are hitting over 60%. Anybody who says they are hitting 75% long term is totally full of crap.

I am amazed that people who post in this forum are throwing crap at Sawyer.
They don't have a clue to what sports betting is all about.

On the same thought, Sawyer has a great record over a season or less (don't really know, I've never paid any attention to him). Anybody who thinks someone who has won at a good rate over less than 200 (I think) picks is not very wise.

GL with your poker, Scott. (and the other poker players who have posted here)

I still don't know why people think i'm throwing crap at him. I've actually been following him off and on for a few weeks now. Its been a total of about 30 picks, which I know is next to nothing. But in hindsight, I think he has been on the wrong side in about half of them, which is a lot. I can tell he is a good capper just the way he talks tho, which makes me believe his edge isn't as big this early in the season as it will be once the season moves on further.

Maybe i'm wrong though, I am not so good at NBA so its certainly possible. I bet NFL which I never had a losing season at, i'm not great at it but I do win decent money doing it.

[lyon804]

The losers of the world flamed the shit out of Sawyer. Gambling ain't easy losers and anybody is subject to a cold spell at anytime. You don't like losing money tailing others than I suggest you lose it on your own whim.

[cgull]

You folks kill me, just one time roll betters I guess. Again children, its called gambling. if you tail someone, its ok if they win, but not lose. No matter what side you scrubs are on, I wish you would just go away, for those of us who are/have been around for the long haul, don't need to hear it. Some win, some dont. Have balls and by the way, make your own freakin thread, this is sawyers thread. If you dont like it, make your own fukn thread

[Wojo]

But in hindsight, I think he has been on the wrong side in about half of them, which is a lot. I can tell he is a good capper just the way he talks tho, which makes me believe his edge isn't as big this early in the season as it will be once the season moves on further.

Don't understand your comment. If he has been on the wrong side of half of his picks, why do you think he is a good capper? I have yet to see any analysis by Sawyer that would make anybody believe he is a good capper. Am I missing something? Where has his analysis been? Where has he even given very much of an indication of how he handicaps?

I really could be wrong as I mentioned I haven't followed this guy nor have I read his threads.

Not trying to bash anyone. I arrived late to the party.

[SolidDala]

Here is the problem at sbr, instead of banning people that clearly shouldn't bet, they ignore it and let them lower the quality of the whole forum!!

BOL Sawyer and keep grinding it out

[Reload]

Guys - there is no need for insults and negativity in the sports forums. Anyone can run into a losing streak.

Posts like some of those made tonight will be flagged for infractions and moved. Don't join the club - thanks!

[TakeIt]

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