John Morrison 2010 NBA

[Wilba]

Hey have somebody here have heard or uses the Rich Allen system at sportsbettingproffersor.com?

I have played his system for 2 weeks, and can say that I am very happy with him. Back - checked a few more week before that, and from everything I have seen, his is very good. I would highly recommend him.

He is also one of the few popular cappers who actually answers your emails properly. I emailed him a couple of times, and he gave prompt, and detailed, answers to my Q's. I have been very impressed all round with him.

As for long term performance, Im not sure, but I know that he has a very good reputation.

JW Cash put me onto SBP, he might be able to offer info on SBP's longer term performance.

Cheers!

[jphil]

WILBA: So what's your take on us rare B/C bettors, fading after a jm A bet win. Either fading both B & C; or maybe JUST THE C, after waiting to see if the jm A&B bets happen to win(SU/or cover)?

Are you playin B/C bets only per chance w/ the TPS sys.?

[imotiv8]

B bet on toronto coming up...should be without Dirk

[atari5200]

i had it at +8.5, i saw +10 with the 3 points on bodog. +9.5 on other sites too. You can bet that JM would say the series is over. Plus Bargniani was out (BS injury filter) and you saw what dallas did in the 4th without dirk. let me know what you think about this

[stevex]

That's the thing with this system. I don't care about what JM says is a win or whatever because of some bs excuse like "this one book had a line that WOULD'VE won if you had it." Let me bring you to an example of why I don't listen to anything he says. Denver was without Carmelo Anthony a couple of weeks ago for the b and c bets of the series. Denver ended up winning the C wager. There could be filters added everyday with this dude, but if you don't worry about who's out or who's in and just stick to the system, you'll profit.

[jphil]

PORT.!

winna,winna,

chloresa's head on a platta,

dinna.

and all that other happy,hippy, dippy ----!

[jphil]

i had it at +8.5, i saw +10 with the 3 points on bodog. +9.5 on other sites too. You can bet that JM would say the series is over. Plus Bargniani was out (BS injury filter) and you saw what dallas did in the 4th without dirk. let me know what you think about this

was that 8.5 & 9.5 before pts.? and if so, where?

[zigomanisinsider]

nice winner today boys

[SilkBC]

I will identify ANY TEAM that starts a 3 game road series ANY PLACE at ANY TIME..... I will NOT buy 3 points....it is a waste of money...

I will do simply a 2 line Labourchere..........

No chasing....no C Bet....no worries..........know what I'm sayin.......

Do you still play the spread or do you play the ML?

-SilkBC

[imotiv8]

What's your record doing this jwcash

[J.M. Disciple]

12/28/10
v3: Boston [B wager]
v1: Toronto [B wager]

Wilba since you have only been betting B and C wagers this whole season are you down money? I was looking at the stats and based on picking up 3 units per series starting from B i would believe that you would be down money. Thats if your risking 6 units on B and 18 units on C. Let me know how your doing please. I am not trying to put you on blast or doubt your method by any means. I am doing the same thing that you are doing but i was forunate enough to not bet some of the C wagers due to injury filter and other things that was following.

GL to all.

[J.M. Disciple]

Boston -3.5
Toronto should be +15.5 after buying 3pts. They should be under TPS system also once the ML comes up. Betus doesn't have it listed yet. Some sites may have boston lower then -3.5 after buying 3pts dpending on the site and what time you got your bet in. Im sticking with -3.5 at -170.

i will place my bet on toronto once the spread is up.

[atari5200]

-170.

which books are still giving -170 after buying 3 points?

sportsbook.com, betus (sometimes) and 5dimes (-173).

please help and list others that offer -170.

thanks.

[shermanator]

boston and toronto [B] bets

[nitsuj378]

5dimes has -173??? I was on live chat with them the other day to see what they offered for buying 3 point and they said -200.

-170.

which books are still giving -170 after buying 3 points?

sportsbook.com, betus (sometimes) and 5dimes (-173).

please help and list others that offer -170.

thanks.

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA V3 system:
12/27/2010 Portland @ Utah - V3, B bet - WIN

V3 record so far (finished series): 25-1
(A): 14-12
(B): 10-2
(C): 1-1

Next V3 plays:
12/28/2010 Boston @ Indiana - V3, B bet

[thebestthereis]

i am locking in those lyrics

[jphil]

no tor. line yet.

[krzychu78]

Toronto +10,5

[Wilba]

i had it at +8.5, i saw +10 with the 3 points on bodog. +9.5 on other sites too. You can bet that JM would say the series is over. Plus Bargniani was out (BS injury filter) and you saw what dallas did in the 4th without dirk. let me know what you think about this

12/26 03:50 PM +5 -105 -5 -105
12/26 11:36 PM +5 +100 -5 -110
12/26 11:47 PM +5 +103 -5 -114
12/27 12:37 AM +5.5 -106 -5.5 -104
12/27 07:15 AM +5.5 -105 -5.5 -105
12/27 08:08 AM +5.5 +100 -5.5 -110
12/27 10:09 AM +5.5 +102 -5.5 -113
12/27 10:12 AM +6 -105 -6 -105
12/27 10:43 AM +6 -103 -6 -107
12/27 10:49 AM +6 -102 -6 -108
12/27 10:54 AM +6 -101 -6 -109
12/27 10:55 AM +6 +100 -6 -110
12/27 10:59 AM +6 +102 -6 -113
12/27 11:01 AM +6.5 -105 -6.5 -105
12/27 11:12 AM +6.5 -104 -6.5 -106
12/27 11:16 AM +6.5 -103 -6.5 -107
12/27 11:58 AM +6.5 -102 -6.5 -108
12/27 12:09 PM +6.5 +100 -6.5 -110
12/27 12:26 PM +6.5 -101 -6.5 -109
12/27 12:27 PM +6.5 -109 -6.5 -101
12/27 12:29 PM +6.5 -110 -6.5 +100
12/27 12:31 PM +6.5 -108 -6.5 -102
12/27 12:41 PM +6.5 -107 -6.5 -103
12/27 02:40 PM +6.5 -106 -6.5 -104
12/27 03:32 PM +6.5 -105 -6.5 -105
12/27 04:55 PM +6.5 -104 -6.5 -106
12/27 05:02 PM +6.5 -103 -6.5 -107
12/27 05:27 PM +6.5 -102 -6.5 -108
12/27 05:47 PM +6.5 +100 -6.5 -110
12/27 05:49 PM +6.5 -103 -6.5 -107
12/27 05:50 PM +6.5 -105 -6.5 -105
12/27 06:31 PM +6.5 -104 -6.5 -106
12/27 06:41 PM +6.5 -103 -6.5 -107
12/27 07:11 PM +6.5 -102 -6.5 -108
12/27 07:33 PM +6.5 -104 -6.5 -106
12/27 07:36 PM +6.5 -103 -6.5 -107
12/27 07:38 PM +6.5 +100 -6.5 -110
12/27 08:07 PM +6.5 -101 -6.5 -109
12/27 08:08 PM +6.5 +101 -6.5 -111

this is the full list of Pinnacle offered odds on the Toronto game yesterday. Opened at +5 (+8 w/ 3 pts) and never got higher than +6.5 (+9.5 w/ pts)

for me the Tor A bet was a loss. I always go by pinnacle lines as they are always true and never swayed by JM bettors

[Wilba]

WILBA: So what's your take on us rare B/C bettors, fading after a jm A bet win. Either fading both B & C; or maybe JUST THE C, after waiting to see if the jm A&B bets happen to win(SU/or cover)?

Are you playin B/C bets only per chance w/ the TPS sys.?

firstly to answer the TPS system question - I do not play the 'TPS' system, but as I explained eearlier in the thread, I have played my own version of the TPS and done well off it for 2 years. I play every dog of 11 points or more, and buy 3 points. I weight each bet depending on recent performance of 11+ underdogs. If the last couple have won, I play for 1 unit. Once 1-2 lose, I increase stakes in a labby fashion until the losses have been covered and a win made, at which point I go back to playing for 1 unit.

Done this for 2 years with very nice profit, so I see no reason to change to JJ's version of my own system.

As for fading the JM sys after an A win (or B win also), I earlier in the thread provided 1-2 year stats on doing this (since posting I have researched a little more so I will repost here):

WHEN !NOT! BUYING ANY POINTS:
reversed B bet after an A bet win (when NOT buying any points!):
54.84% win rate (profitable)

reversed C bet after an A bet win (when NOT buying any points!):
61.90% win rate (definitely profitable)

WHEN BUYING 3 POINTS:
reversed B bet after an A bet win (when NOT buying any points!):
63.89% win rate (profitable ONLY if you get -170 odds for buying 3 points, which nearly noone does)

reversed C bet after an A bet win (when NOT buying any points!):
73.08% win rate (definitely profitable)


Note that doing this when buying 3 points is still profitable, but not buying points at all works better when backing the home team.

hope this helps. Also please note that this is only a 1-2 year backtest and is hence not reliable in terms of long term stats (5 year min for any reliability), but early signs indicate that this is definitely profitable.

[Wilba]

12/28/10
v3: Boston [B wager]
v1: Toronto [B wager]

Wilba since you have only been betting B and C wagers this whole season are you down money? I was looking at the stats and based on picking up 3 units per series starting from B i would believe that you would be down money. Thats if your risking 6 units on B and 18 units on C. Let me know how your doing please. I am not trying to put you on blast or doubt your method by any means. I am doing the same thing that you are doing but i was forunate enough to not bet some of the C wagers due to injury filter and other things that was following.

GL to all.

Well, if you play the system from A as prescribed, you are certainly down money. I'm not sure why you say you would be down money if playing the system my way though??? Because I am up more than 10 units on the season so far. Maybe you are including the early minnesota series 'loss' in your calculations? the minnesota series fell within their 1st 3 games of the season, and was not a series play. The 'not play series if it starts in 1st 3 games of season' filter is the only one which is not bogus, I have backtested and it is important, and hence I do not play series which start in 1st 3 games for any team...

For your benefit, and others, I will post below the whole seasons results, all versions, below. And I will show where you would be if playing from A, and playing from B:

Here are the season results thus far: (I have not included the 3 series which started within the first 3 games of the season. These were not official plays, and this filter is the one which I actually do apply, as it has a proven track record of making system more profitable)

V1 RECORD: (1 series pending after A loss with Toronto)
A bets: 9 wins*, 11 loss
B bets: 6 wins, 4 loss
C bets: 3 wins, 2 loss
2 series loss

*I included the A win by Philly from yesterday, as this was actually a V1 play

V2 RECORD (3 unofficial '1st 3 games of season' series' not included):
A bets: 5 wins, 2 loss
B bets: 1 win, 1 loss
C bets: 1 win, 0 loss
0 series loss

V3 RECORD: (1 series pending after A loss with Boston)
A bets: 14 wins, 14 loss
B bets: 10 wins, 3 loss
C bets: 2 wins, 1 loss
1 series loss

ALL VERSIONS RECORD:
A bets: 28 wins, 27 losses
B bets: 17 wins, 9 losses
C bets: 6 wins, 3 loss
3 series loss

TOTAL = 51 SERIES WINS, 3 SERIES LOSSES, 2 SERIES PENDING AFTER A LOSS

note that personally, I play each version for different weightings, and also weight less on the series marked by Stanley as risky. But it is too much effort to post these variations here, so I will calculate the following results with consistency (-180 odds, risk 20.95 units/series) over all versions..

Also note that I have done the following calculations at -180 odds, because I believe this is an accurate representation of what the average person gets for buying 3 points.

TOTAL SERIES RISK WHEN PLAYING TO WIN 1 UNIT FROM A WITH -180 ODDS:
A RISK = 1.80 UNIT
B RISK = 5.04 UNIT
C RISK = 14.11 UNIT
SERIES RISK = 1.80+5.04+14.11 UNITS = 20.95 UNITS SERIES RISK FOR POTENTIAL WIN OF 1 UNIT

HENCE TOTAL +/- IF PLAYING FROM A AND RISKING 20.95 UNITS/SERIES:
51 series wins x (+1) unit = +51 units
3 series losses x (-20.95) units = -62.85 units
2 A losses x (-1.88) units = -3.6 units

PLAYING FROM A SEASON THUS FAR = -15.45 UNITS

Now calculating the same risk / series of 20.95 units, but only playing from B.
B RISK = 5.51 (to win 3.06 units)
C RISK = 15.44 (to win back A loss + 3.06 units for 3.06 unit net gain on series)
SERIES RISK = 5.51 + 15.54 UNITS = 20.95 UNITS SERIES RISK FOR POTENTIAL WIN OF 3.06 UNITS

HENCE TOTAL +/- IF PLAYING FROM B AND RISKING (the same risk of) 20.95 UNITS/SERIES:
23 series wins x (+3.06) unit = +70.38 units
3 series losses x (-20.95) units = -62.85 units
0 SERIES PENDING (cant include boston/tor as they are not completed B bets yet)

PLAYING FROM A SEASON THUS FAR = +9.53 UNITS

SUMMARY: IF YOU PLAYED ALL SERIES FROM A, YOU ARE DOWN -15.45 UNITS.
IF YOU PLAYED ALL SERIES FROM B (with same series risk) YOU ARE UP +9.53 UNITS

This comprehensively shows the difference between the two methods. All you need to do to know that A bets are s*it is to look at the strike rate (28 wins, 27 losses). Obviously hitting ~50% at -180 odds will cost you money.

I bet someone my left nut earlier in the season that the early season 'A' strike rate of 67% would not hold up until season's end. Clearly my left nut is safe. Having said that, the current 'A' strike rate of ~50% will also not hold up - the 'A' strike rate will be higher than this by season's end. It will end up somewhere in the vicinity of 61%, which will cost you money.

This is why A bets are not worth playing. Clear and comprehensive evidence shown for this season, in case anyone doubted the backtested evidence.

Also, whether you have abided by the injury filter this season is almost irrelevant to these calculations - by abiding by the injury filter you would have missed 1 C loss (phoenix) but also missed out on 2 A wins, 1 B win, and 1 C win. The profit from 2A wins, 1B, and 1C win is almost equal to 1 C loss, so I have not bothered calculating in the injury 'filter'

Hope this helps you, and I am hoping this will help other people make more money too



phew that took me forever to write this post. Im going to watch the NCAA bowls!

[Wilba]

In such a long post it is more than possible that I have made a typo somewhere. If you see one please let me know and I will correct it, thanks.

[JW Cash]

....winna ...winna ...Chef Boy-ar-dee Beef Ravioli dinna......

Nice win Celts.....

They just toyed with Indy for 3 quarters.....and then when
the 4th started....it was ..Wham Bam...Thank You Maam......


Solaman had another win last night.......

[EasyHustlin]

As for fading the JM sys after an A win (or B win also), I earlier in the thread provided 1-2 year stats on doing this (since posting I have researched a little more so I will repost here):

WHEN !NOT! BUYING ANY POINTS:
reversed B bet after an A bet win (when NOT buying any points!):
54.84% win rate (profitable)

reversed C bet after an A bet win (when NOT buying any points!):
61.90% win rate (definitely profitable)

Great stats for those following Solaman's system!

Thanks for your work Wilba. That's the kind of insight people can profit from. (I'd throw you some points but I just lost them all on a bullshit backdoor cover in the Minnesota Wisconsin game.)

[JW Cash]

...winna ...winna .....Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough Ice Cream...dinna...


GREAT Job Raptors.....beating the Mavs outright....



Cash IT !!!

[Wilba]

Great stats for those following Solaman's system!

Thanks for your work Wilba. That's the kind of insight people can profit from. (I'd throw you some points but I just lost them all on a bullshit backdoor cover in the Minnesota Wisconsin game.)

No worries - you are more than welcome!

Nice job on the wins today guys!

[Wilba]

...winna ...winna .....Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough Ice Cream...dinna...


GREAT Job Raptors.....beating the Mavs outright....



Cash IT !!!

ya - how about that! What a win for the Raps!

[JW Cash]

ya - how about that! What a win for the Raps!

Dirk was out.........too bad...so sad.......

A win is a win is a win......


Will...

Send me some of that warm Aussie sunshine.......

[Wilba]

[touch04]

Jm 29/12/10

So we have Golden State v1 and New Jersey v2 for 29/12/10
Can someone confirm this please!
Great job today fellas!

[touch04]

JW I am in Aus but we aint gettin much sunshine at the moment and I live on the Gold Coast! We are getting floods, must be better than getting snowed in I suspect!

[Bugs Bunny]

So we have Golden State v1 and New Jersey v2 for 29/12/10
Can someone confirm this please!
Great job today fellas!

Right
Memphis is a V3 bet as well.

[shermanator]

nice win on toronto

[atari5200]

-170

no one has gotten back to me on this yet. WHAT LINE DO YOU GET WHEN BUYING 3 POINTS?

Wilba, if you're using pinnacle then the 3 points are -185. That's too much juice for a 3 game series. Betting on B and C makes even more sense for you if that's the line you're getting.

WHO'S GETTING -170?
i'm getting -170 at sportsbook.com but i can't trust them with a high bankroll. D- rating on SBR review