John Morrison 2010 NBA

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Wilba
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-29-10
    • 702

    #2801
    Originally posted by jphil
    Wilba: You're flat bettin the A's temporarily, here & there, throughout the season, completely separate from the usual season long b/c chase, from what i understand. So tonight you wagered 3 separate bets or whatever on the A's. NJ lost, MEMP. lost, & GS was either a push, loss, (or a win if gotten @ the +7.5 for the lousy 3 min. they had it up at betus). Putting that aside, the next NJ gm. is a B bet, & if ya have an A bet that same night on another tm., then you'll be laying separate bets(the A, & the usual B's). Is that right? Doesn't it all come out in the laundry eventually if ya had just waited for these next 3 (in my opinion) B bets, & wagered the extra amount on those as usual. But then again what the hell do i know, cause i'm certainly no stat/math genius. I'm sure you can set me straight.
    not here and there throughout the season, just right now. As I explained, the statistical anomoly of A hitting ONLY 50% will not last, and a string of A bet wins will occur at some point which will push the A % up toward its statistical average of 61.5%. I am going to TEMPORARILY take advantage of this predicted evening out of A %, which I believe will result in a string of A wins. Clearly betting every A over the season is going to mean you lose considerable money - however I have already missed losing 24/47 V1 and V3 A bet losses (-18.55 units), so I will jump on the A's for V1 and V3 until I make money from them, and then stop.

    I Did not bet on the V2 A bet yesterday, as V2 A bets have been hitting where they should be (A record 5-2), and a turnaround for them is not expected. Turnarounds expected for only V3 a little, and V1 a lot. V1 was 9-11 in A's up until yesterday, and as expected the A bet won. V3 14-13 in A's, so a turnaround also expected for that, although less confident with the V3.

    So yesterday was a +10.5 win with GS, (I use Pinnacle not betus so I dont have problems with dodgy lines, GS was +7.5 at pinnacle from when I woke up to when the game tipped off) and a buzzer beater loss for the grizzlies. I bet to win 2 units on the V1 (won +2), for reasons explained, and 1 for the V3 (lost 1.88). So I made only a very small +0.12 unit profit yesterday. But I am confident that I will make more money than that from this little experiment. See I will do it like an 'only A bet' labby - these bets have NOTHING to do with the system bets of B/C that you know I do.

    Consider this to be a separate system of labby betting all V1/V3 A bets for a limited time. I still do NOT bet Jm NBA A bets as part of an A/B/C system as I know they do not work.

    Does looking at it this way make it easier for you to understand?

    I will give you another example - the first 7 NCAA football bowl games this year were ALL won by the favorite covering the spread. After this I knew that some dogs would have to win somewhere, so I bet the next 4 games to be covered by the dog in each game (even though I know nothing about gridiron) and sure enough 3 of the 4 games were covered by dogs.

    All I am doing here is the same thing with the A bets, coz I know statistical probabilities always win out in the long run. A bit unorthodox perhaps, but doing this with ANY sport has never failed me in the past.

    Another example - after 4 rounds of EPL soccer a year ago, there were no draws. So the next weekend I bet every game to be a draw, even if I didn't like the bet. 4 of the 10 games that weekend were draws, paying an average of 3.50 (+250 US odds) for a decent profit. Anytime I see a statistical anomaly I bet it to change, labby style, until it does. Thats what I am doing with V1/3 A's right now.
    Comment
    • Wilba
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-29-10
      • 702

      #2802
      Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
      Sorry Wilba I must of been tired when i read your post. I clearly wasn't thinking and I must of been looking at a different Philly game or mixing up games. You are completely right. I wish i would of reread your post before betting on Phx tonight lol. Just a small bet though oh well.

      Thanks Wilba for once again clearing things up for me. Huge help!
      you are more than welcome
      Comment
      • Wilba
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-29-10
        • 702

        #2803
        Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
        With the Reverse system of JM on B and C after the A win for the road team do you do a two game chase or just a flat bet wilba?

        I reread your post, but apparently my reading skills and understand haven't been too good as of late.

        Thanks again Wilba.
        I don' play them at all - not enough statistical evidence for me to prove that they are reliable yet.

        I will be sure to post if/when I further backtest this idea
        Comment
        • Wilba
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-29-10
          • 702

          #2804
          Originally posted by zigomanisinsider
          you will never make money betting this joke of a system
          hey Zigo do you really want me to refer people to your posts earlier in the season, before the golden state @ raptors game, when you posted before the game saying the line offered on golden state was an absolute joke, and that the Raps shoulda been -10, not -2???

          And the the Raps started the game off with a 10-0 run, and when GS took a timeout you posted saying" GAME OVER, RAPS WIN EASILY"

          and then GS scored a heap of points straight, and went on to win the game in a blowout, making you look like a real idiot.

          Is that why u think the system is so crap?? coz it sh*ts on your 'lock' predictions for certain games?
          Comment
          • Wilba
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-29-10
            • 702

            #2805
            Originally posted by GGPLAYER
            I have not been in here for some time and was suprised to read this from you. I'm not sure GSW could be considered a win since most people got it at 6.5 or 7. Push or loss for many. Secondly I think the string of A bets just occurred recently and I'm not so sure they will be happening again now. Few weeks ago from 12/18 - 12/22 A bets went 4-1. Since then they are 2-5 (that's with GSW last night). Previsiouly to that 4-1 run A bets went 2-13 from 12/6-12/17. I guess you could argue that A's would have to start hitting at a higer % based on that. I'm just unsure still. Plus you bet at a higher unit on the B and C's anyway so why the need to play the A bets?
            my initial post was referring only to V1 A bets. I thought this was clear when I said 'starting with GS today' and did not mention the other A bets which were on yesterday. I should have been clearer in my initial post.

            Also gonna do it to a lessor extent with V3 A's, although I will be a little more wary of them.

            posted above in more detail explaining my reasoning. I guess time will tell but my reasoning behind doing this has never failed me in the past.

            Here is a post of Pinnacle's offered odds in the GS game yesterday:

            12/29 01:04 PM +7 -103 -7 -107
            12/29 01:05 PM +7 -102 -7 -108
            12/29 01:11 PM +7 -101 -7 -109
            12/29 01:24 PM +7 -103 -7 -107
            12/29 01:37 PM +7 -102 -7 -108
            12/29 02:36 PM +7 -101 -7 -109
            12/29 03:11 PM +7 +100 -7 -110
            12/29 05:48 PM +7.5 -108 -7.5 -102
            12/29 05:54 PM +7.5 -101 -7.5 -109
            12/29 06:03 PM +7.5 -103 -7.5 -107
            12/29 06:04 PM +7.5 -106 -7.5 -104
            12/29 06:05 PM +7.5 -108 -7.5 -102
            12/29 06:14 PM +7.5 -105 -7.5 -105
            12/29 06:51 PM +7.5 -103 -7.5 -107
            12/29 06:52 PM +7.5 -105 -7.5 -105
            12/29 07:00 PM +7.5 -103 -7.5 -107
            12/29 07:01 PM +7.5 -105 -7.5 -105
            12/29 07:07 PM +7.5 -106 -7.5 -104

            I think anyone that bet the afternoon of the game and did not get at least +7 should change their book if this happens often to them.

            And if you bet earlier than the afternoon of the game - in the future I have found waiting until closer to tipoff is safer in case of injuries etc
            Comment
            • Wilba
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 10-29-10
              • 702

              #2806
              Originally posted by GGPLAYER
              I have not been in here for some time and was suprised to read this from you. I'm not sure GSW could be considered a win since most people got it at 6.5 or 7. Push or loss for many. Secondly I think the string of A bets just occurred recently and I'm not so sure they will be happening again now. Few weeks ago from 12/18 - 12/22 A bets went 4-1. Since then they are 2-5 (that's with GSW last night). Previsiouly to that 4-1 run A bets went 2-13 from 12/6-12/17. I guess you could argue that A's would have to start hitting at a higer % based on that. I'm just unsure still. Plus you bet at a higher unit on the B and C's anyway so why the need to play the A bets?
              what you posted makes 8-19 A bet record in the last 27 A games. No way that hit rate ~30% will continue for long.

              Basically I was betting that the next 3 V1 A bets would not lose, and to a lessor extent the next 3 V3 A bets. The 1st V1 A won, so that's that, and V3 will wait and see.

              "Plus you bet at a higher unit on the B and C's anyway so why the need to play the A bets?"

              I have no need to play the A bets - but if I can make an extra couple units off them why not?

              however I take your point about it being confusing as it goes against everything that I have said since day 1, and am now beginning to wish that I never posted about this in the first place! If I knew the confusion it would cause I would not have.

              From here on out please ignore that post and all other related ones!
              Comment
              • touch04
                SBR Rookie
                • 04-12-10
                • 31

                #2807
                Come on ozzie

                Originally posted by Bazz27
                Hi mate, im also in oz, what sportsbook u using pls for best value - cheers nsw
                Bazz22, how are you buddy? I live in Brisvegas and have been on Morrison for over 2 years. He is a scammer no doubt, but I have modified my betting due to this forum and it has definitely improved my profit. I use to use betfair, which is the best and fairest by far. You can buy the 3 points by ringing betfair and asking for another line eg if boston are -5.5 then you can request another line od -2.5 and they always put it on for me as many of Morrison's suckers are also on betfair. This only works if the lines come up the night before and they have time to email head office etc. This was quite time consuming and sometimes my bets did not get filled, however, if you have time you can trade out of your position which is a great advantage of betfair. I now use sportingbet and do not buy the 3 pts. Of late this has not cost me, however, past experience tells me that it will soon. The beauty of this is that I am only risking about 7-8 units on a series not 17 like I use to when I bought points. I hope this is of some help! Good luck!
                Comment
                • mattd83
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 01-22-09
                  • 84

                  #2808
                  Wilba...king of the marathon posts. But good stuff
                  Comment
                  • Wilba
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-29-10
                    • 702

                    #2809
                    Ha! yeah I know - I do tend to post long ones in response to other peoples questions - I hope you don't mind!

                    I believe there is an ignore button so for anyone who is not keen on reading all my crap feel free to 'ignore' me! I assure you no offence will be taken!
                    Comment
                    • jphil
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 07-12-09
                      • 757

                      #2810
                      Damn Wilba, i thought for sure i had ya nailed on this one!! Oh well, i guess ya got me sold again now on your new experiment. Good Luck w/ it bro. Rake in a few extra bucks for yourself. I fully understand where you're comin from.

                      Yeh, not sure if pinny is offered in the states. Them & most other books had 'em for a little while before gm. time @ 7.5 i see, except betus for a minute or 2. Guess i'll just skip the B on GS, & move on. Nothin lost.
                      Comment
                      • Wilba
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 10-29-10
                        • 702

                        #2811
                        Originally posted by jphil
                        Damn Wilba, i thought for sure i had ya nailed on this one!! Oh well, i guess ya got me sold again now on your new experiment. Good Luck w/ it bro. Rake in a few extra bucks for yourself. I fully understand where you're comin from.

                        Yeh, not sure if pinny is offered in the states. Them & most other books had 'em for a little while before gm. time @ 7.5 i see, except betus for a minute or 2. Guess i'll just skip the B on GS, & move on. Nothin lost.
                        haha yeah like I said a bit unorthodox, but I have had success doing this in the past with other systems/cappers picks so as long as it keeps on working I'll do it! I'm sure that one day it will come back to bite me, but I have enough wins under my belt doing this in the past to cover a couple 'series' losses and still be well on top.

                        I thought of a better example I shoulda written about first off that would help understand where I was coming from with this. In Chili's thread, Hagball posts JM's 'champ' () picks, which are absolutely awful. But I saw that JM's chump picks had lost 8 in a row, and even though I knew the picks were rubbish, I also knew that this was a perfect time to jump on them. So I bet (for high amounts) his picks for the next 3 days, and sure enough they won for a good profit. This was documented in Chili's thread if you have any doubts!

                        And yeah good point about pinny not being offered in states, that really sucks for you guys huh.. but as you say the closing line for GS was +7.5 at all the reputable sportsbooks, and was +7.5 for 4-5 hours be4 tipoff, so personally I would be wary of continuing with the GS series. High likelihood they cover +3 again on their road trip, but for me the risk to payout ratio is too high. Might play the 'B' for a small amount, see how Im feeling at the time I guess!

                        Thanks for your good wishes and for putting up with my long rambling posts! I love talkin bout this crap which is why I go overboard with my responses at time! the 2 things I love most in life are sports and money, combining them is a dream come true!! Best wishes to you and everyone else here in this thread, hope ya'll have a happy and safe new years, Im gonna get bang on it for sure!
                        Comment
                        • dioforce
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 12-21-10
                          • 59

                          #2812
                          I withdraw from Sportsbook.com without any issue now four months on the trot. Express couriered check to my door gives me a boner. Any other questions?
                          Comment
                          • Kev the Brit
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-25-09
                            • 2027

                            #2813
                            From JFM today (12/31):
                            Yet once again, we cashed in with Golden State! That's 258 wins to
                            2 losses now since the 2006 NBA season! More to come xxxxxx
                            Let's go pick up another winner!
                            So, as expected, GSW is a system win. For those of us who got +6.5 I guess its not too difficult to cover the 1.9 unit loss on the next few series. Those who got +7 (pushed) can start a V2/V3 series with the next 3 games on the road.

                            Then he posted a link to this:

                            John Morrison's Sports Betting Champ System System Pick(s)
                            12/31 Detroit [A]
                            Phoenix
                            No mention of Atlanta, who go on the road today against the opposite conference.

                            Kev
                            Comment
                            • J.M. Disciple
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 11-16-10
                              • 5154

                              #2814
                              12/31
                              NJN v2 [b wager] +13 vs chicago
                              Comment
                              • kjrudemi
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 12-20-10
                                • 105

                                #2815
                                Anyone have any ideas why Atlanta is not a V1 play?
                                Comment
                                • PanamaKid
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 12-29-10
                                  • 95

                                  #2816
                                  "
                                  Comment
                                  • cmdyrds
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 08-20-09
                                    • 522

                                    #2817
                                    Originally posted by Kev the Brit
                                    From JFM today (12/31):
                                    So, as expected, GSW is a system win. For those of us who got +6.5 I guess its not too difficult to cover the 1.9 unit loss on the next few series. Those who got +7 (pushed) can start a V2/V3 series with the next 3 games on the road.

                                    Then he posted a link to this:

                                    No mention of Atlanta, who go on the road today against the opposite conference.

                                    Kev
                                    light him up kev.
                                    Comment
                                    • GGPLAYER
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-26-09
                                      • 2981

                                      #2818
                                      Originally posted by Wilba
                                      what you posted makes 8-19 A bet record in the last 27 A games. No way that hit rate ~30% will continue for long.

                                      Basically I was betting that the next 3 V1 A bets would not lose, and to a lessor extent the next 3 V3 A bets. The 1st V1 A won, so that's that, and V3 will wait and see.

                                      "Plus you bet at a higher unit on the B and C's anyway so why the need to play the A bets?"

                                      I have no need to play the A bets - but if I can make an extra couple units off them why not?

                                      however I take your point about it being confusing as it goes against everything that I have said since day 1, and am now beginning to wish that I never posted about this in the first place! If I knew the confusion it would cause I would not have.

                                      From here on out please ignore that post and all other related ones!

                                      Thanks for your insight as I was just trying to get into your head a little deeper. You really are a top notch guy for taking the time to read and respond to everyone's comments. I do see what your saying I was just taken back a bit because like you said everything you had talked about before was regarding sticking to the B and C bets. I had bought into it and have been doing quite well the past month. I know you don't do anything half ass so if you see the trend picking up for A bets I will join you. Happy New Year to all!
                                      Comment
                                      • mitchp
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 07-29-10
                                        • 227

                                        #2819
                                        So what's the general opinion on the Atlanta game - I have it as V1 play!
                                        Comment
                                        • cmdyrds
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 08-20-09
                                          • 522

                                          #2820
                                          Originally posted by mitchp
                                          So what's the general opinion on the Atlanta game - I have it as V1 play!
                                          i got it too mitch.
                                          Comment
                                          • JW Cash
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-31-08
                                            • 4453

                                            #2821
                                            I'll be playing..

                                            Detroit
                                            Atlanta
                                            Golden State
                                            NJ Nets
                                            Memphis...
                                            Comment
                                            • cmdyrds
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 08-20-09
                                              • 522

                                              #2822
                                              rodney stuckey is out for detroit just an fyi all.
                                              Comment
                                              • Kev the Brit
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-25-09
                                                • 2027

                                                #2823
                                                Originally posted by cmdyrds
                                                rodney stuckey is out for detroit just an fyi all.
                                                He didn't get on the jet from Detroit (ESPN.com news) so the lines will reflect his absence
                                                Comment
                                                • stevex
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 05-02-10
                                                  • 5122

                                                  #2824
                                                  Big day for the JM NBA followers...lets make some cash today!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cmdyrds
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 08-20-09
                                                    • 522

                                                    #2825
                                                    Originally posted by Kev the Brit
                                                    He didn't get on the jet from Detroit (ESPN.com news) so the lines will reflect his absence
                                                    moved a .5 kev. thoughts on reversing it?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • GGPLAYER
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-26-09
                                                      • 2981

                                                      #2826
                                                      Come out and play Warriors (some of you may be too young to get that one)
                                                      Golden State covers!

                                                      Dirty Jersey covers too!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • PanamaKid
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 12-29-10
                                                        • 95

                                                        #2827
                                                        I'm definitely playing the Atlanta series huge! Big A bet, and they have the Clippers and Kings afterwards.

                                                        I do have to say that I'm avoiding the Detroit games because... yea... really tough series.

                                                        Congrats to anyone else who followed through with GSW tonight despite JM's crappy "win" when I got 6.5 and he had the 7.5
                                                        Comment
                                                        • J.M. Disciple
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 11-16-10
                                                          • 5154

                                                          #2828
                                                          Nets covered, and those of you who played GSW they covered as well. Now all that is left is Detroit and Atl for those of you who play the A wagers.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jmjj
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 11-17-10
                                                            • 172

                                                            #2829
                                                            Originally posted by Kev the Brit
                                                            From JFM today (12/31):
                                                            So, as expected, GSW is a system win. For those of us who got +6.5 I guess its not too difficult to cover the 1.9 unit loss on the next few series. Those who got +7 (pushed) can start a V2/V3 series with the next 3 games on the road.

                                                            Then he posted a link to this:

                                                            No mention of Atlanta, who go on the road today against the opposite conference.

                                                            Kev
                                                            yeah I dont get that either why he didnt put Atlanta has an A bet at all today and the fact I covered this in a post on the 29th #2787 and no one said s hit about it til today not sure but I did write about it that JM would say that we won on the Warriors and when most didnt thats his style figured most people are used to it by now Kev is all over this topic so to clarify how JM does s hit u know
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stevex
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 05-02-10
                                                              • 5122

                                                              #2830
                                                              Good 2 - 0 start to the day....lets make bank tonight folks!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • knugen
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-09-09
                                                                • 2612

                                                                #2831
                                                                J.W i thought u follow crusher and he was on Chicago tonight?

                                                                Good for u tjat was on nets and GS, i was on Chicago and are 0-1 so far , really hope That st Louis win tonight... Happy new year

                                                                Goodwill for u who u followed nets and GS
                                                                Comment
                                                                • luzviminda
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 12-05-10
                                                                  • 32

                                                                  #2832
                                                                  JM said 258 wins and 2 losses.
                                                                  Its that true.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JW Cash
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-31-08
                                                                    • 4453

                                                                    #2833
                                                                    Originally posted by knugen
                                                                    J.W i thought u follow crusher and he was on Chicago tonight?

                                                                    Good for u tjat was on nets and GS, i was on Chicago and are 0-1 so far , really hope That st Louis win tonight... Happy new year

                                                                    Goodwill for u who u followed nets and GS


                                                                    Yea...

                                                                    when that happens I just play NJ on its own respective labby line
                                                                    and I play Chi on its own respective labby line.....

                                                                    I actually got NJ at +10.5 so almost won both bets...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JW Cash
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-31-08
                                                                      • 4453

                                                                      #2834
                                                                      Originally posted by luzviminda
                                                                      JM said 258 wins and 2 losses.
                                                                      Its that true.


                                                                      NO......


                                                                      That sucker JM lies his balls off......
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • stevex
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 05-02-10
                                                                        • 5122

                                                                        #2835
                                                                        Ehh 2 - 2 on the day which I'll take as both [b] bets won. On to some V3 plays tomorrow....

                                                                        For those following in seperate labbys, CRUSH NBA and SBP Original both have [C] plays tomorrow as well....
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        Search
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...