Being Roag Part 2 - $200 to $10,000 in 6 months

[Donkwin47]

Missed the winner (obv), but just got in the 1st half draw bet. I'd apologize for the loss in advance, but won't be a downer. We got this. The historic comeback run continues now!

Who was I kidding.

Dude you werent kidding about being a jinx. I gotta wait to see what youre on before i put in my bets. The one you missed cashes and the one you barely made loses. LOL

It's not the only time dude, it's litterally EVERY time. No joke. The $220 halftime loss last night was the first one I actually saw and bet in over a week, maybe the only 1, since tailing Roag, as it's only been a week or two. Anyways, I am down almost $700 tailing Roag's plays. Yet, Roag is up money. It's just a sick f*cking joke. Kinda shit that drives gamblers to suicide.

I'm gonna spare thsi thread's fate, and STOP tailing all together. Load up now, double roag's units, and you'll be at $20k by August.

GL, all.

[sterkarm]

LOL nah dont quit man. Just try to get in every play and youll be good.

[Donkwin47]

Dude you werent kidding about being a jinx. I gotta wait to see what youre on before i put in my bets. The one you missed cashes and the one you barely made loses. LOL

Also, Paco seems to be one of the best baseball cappers around, and I saw he had a 3x play on the Mets today (Usually plays 0.5x or 1x), plus a great capper on RX who is 112-64 was on them, so I played the Mets for some morning action, and they are in the midst of a 3 hit shutout being thrown by Carl friggin Pavano... Johan gave up 4 runs in the first inning, and all Mets backers were drawing dead.

Also, I'm going with "Ragiche" tonight as I see he has 1 play for 6x (I checked his thread and only found 1 other 6x, which won).. He's been killing WNBA (36-26, +32.53 Units).. So I am going with his Silverstars play tonight. Might want to stay away.

I dunno what it is.. I'm actually up a good amount for the year overall, but when I TAIL someone.. Just ridiculous man.. The best cappers go on the coldest streaks, it's so sick. If you know "JBragg10" on the RX, I'm pretty much the reason he quit baseball this year.. He was up over 40 units, hitting near 70%, and I jump on for a little, and he goes on what he called "the worst run of his life, in any sport". Lost something like 9 games in the 9th inning or later in a 2 week span.. Had a 2-14 stretch, just absolutely disgusting stuff.. So he said he was done til the all star break. He had a spot play yesterday out of the blue (which I passed) and it won 6-0 as a modest favorite (White Sox over Cubs).

I know the law of averages says things will even out, and I know if you jump on a guy up 100 units, you can't expect 100 more guaranteed in the 2nd half of the season, but I usually just get on for 1 big play or something, and it always loses. I got on this when Roag was only at 300 or 400, not $5k, halfway there, to ride a $1k downswing on his trip to $10k.. But still, he falls below his orginal bankroll.. Just painful,. and I start to feel bad for the cappers I do this to. It's just a joke, and I'm done doing it to Roag.

[RoagBettor]

LOL Donk needs to change his name to KofD! The problem with tailing someone doing what I'm trying to do is I could make a play at any time in any sport, so it's just not worth tailing because you can't bet every bet. Trying to cherry-pick plays from different cappers is impossible because as you said even the greatest cappers in the world go on cold streaks or lose their big plays. Trust me, I've tried it and it doesn't work.

[will2survive]

Never give up on an idea

[RoagBettor]

Play #45:

WNBA

San Antonio/Minnesota under 159 (hook buy)

$180 to win $150

[JayRow]

Is this amount becuase of CHASING or because of how sure you are it will hit? In other words, would it normally be a HEAVY play regardless of your situation?

[RoagBettor]

Is this amount becuase of CHASING or because of how sure you are it will hit? In other words, would it normally be a HEAVY play regardless of your situation?

This is a strong play for me, I would have bet it no matter what. That doesn't mean it will hit because Donkeywin might tail (LOL just kidding bro), but I've capped it to go under.

[Donkwin47]

This is a strong play for me, I would have bet it no matter what. That doesn't mean it will hit because Donkeywin might tail (LOL just kidding bro), but I've capped it to go under.

Lol, it's all good. I had that coming. I dunno what I'm gonna do.. I waited to get San Antonio -6 instead ot -6.5, and got it, but now it's at -5.5, so I might go with the under for some protection. However, If I do that, that just means the Lynx will drop 90 tonight.. RAS is on the under, however.. So yeah, not sure what I'm gonna do with the under.

[Donkwin47]

LOL.. OK.

I went with San Antonio, the Under, and a small parlay of the 2. Thing is, if at least one of the two doesn't win, I am done for a while. BOL. 2-0 would make me real happy and lighten the burden of this failed tailing adventure.

[sterkarm]

Donkwin just remember we are following roag after all. Eventually we will lose everything lmaoo. Dont want to make you a pariah on this thread. The whole point is to have fun and just remember even if we do lose, if you started with the $200 bankroll thats all you are really losing. In the meantime we're having ourselves a hell of a monopoly game.

[dume walker]

Lol, it's all good. I had that coming. I dunno what I'm gonna do.. I waited to get San Antonio -6 instead ot -6.5, and got it, but now it's at -5.5, so I might go with the under for some protection. However, If I do that, that just means the Lynx will drop 90 tonight.. RAS is on the under, however.. So yeah, not sure what I'm gonna do with the under.

One suggestion on how to break your bad mojo. Bet small amounts, a good deal smaller than you normally would. If your unit size is 100, bet 15 or 20. When you win you still kick yourself thinking "Oh, I could've won a hundred!" and that way the "gods of gambling" get their due, still punishing you for whatever gambling transgression you may have made (usually overreaching and being too greedy) and you can gradually get back in their good graces and back on track.

Would be interesting to know what techniques others use to break jinxes and bad runs.

[RoagBettor]

Donkwin just remember we are following roag after all. Eventually we will lose everything lmaoo. Dont want to make you a pariah on this thread. The whole point is to have fun and just remember even if we do lose, if you started with the $200 bankroll thats all you are really losing. In the meantime we're having ourselves a hell of a monopoly game.

LOL yep! But I want to get to 10K before I lose it all!

We'll see what happens with this bet. If it loses, I'll have $20 left for a big last-chance parlay! Hopefully it won't come to that though!

[RoagBettor]

One suggestion on how to break your bad mojo. Bet small amounts, a good deal smaller than you normally would. If your unit size is 100, bet 15 or 20. When you win you still kick yourself thinking "Oh, I could've won a hundred!" and that way the "gods of gambling" get their due, still punishing you for whatever gambling transgression you may have made (usually overreaching and being too greedy) and you can gradually get back in their good graces and back on track.

Would be interesting to know what techniques others use to break jinxes and bad runs.

There are many ways to combat a bad run/jinx. You pointed out the best one - lower your bet amounts significantly. EVERY capper goes on a bad run, I don't care how good they are. I've actually tracked some cappers good and bad runs; if you caught them at the top and faded them when they started to get cold you would make a fortune. But it's impossible, it's like being a stock trader (which I once was) and trying to sell at the high and buy at the low. Not gonna happen 99.9% of the time. But therein lies the problem. Most of us are consumed by greed whether we admit it or not, and we will sacrifice a significant amount of profit for a significant amount of profit plus a small additional gain.

I had a business partner who was once up over $400,000 on a stock that he had about $50,000 invested in. He wanted a clean $500,000 profit. Guess what? He sold it all for about $12,000. Case closed.

[dume walker]

Being too greedy is usually one source of bad mojo. Another can be getting too cocky or taking your wins and profits for granted. That'll bring on the storm clouds. From my POV, the gambling gods want to see humility and discipline. And if you don't do it on your own, they'll take care of it for you.

BOL to everyone on their bets tonight.

[Donkwin47]

Well.. San Antonio covers the first half line (Up 5, at -3) and the first half goes under the total (40-35, total 76).. Both of my bets on pace to cash, and on pace for the parlay to hit as well.. Basically, what this means is that San Antonio should win byt about 3-5 (As a 6 point favorite) and the total should finish in the 160s (Set at 158.5).. IMO, this is the best information you can have when capping a halftime line.. BOL.

[sterkarm]

Roag you better get to 10k. I need a new car!!! Lmaoo

[Donkwin47]

San Antonio has won every quarter outright and the average quarter has been 36.7 points.. I essentially have San Antonio +2 and Under 48.5.. The monetary difference (swing) between 0-2 and 2-0 is about $875, so needless to say, I NEED THIS. Let's hope I don't get screwed in the 4th at home after dominating wire to wire.

[RoagBettor]

Play #45:

WNBA

San Antonio/Minnesota under 159 (hook buy)

$180 to win $150

Phew, needed that one!

[RoagBettor]

Play #46:

WNBA Sunday 6/27/10

NY Liberty -1 (5Dimes)

$165 to win $150

[dume walker]

Phew, needed that one!

Thanks for the winner, Roag.

[JayRow]

Already booked. Playing this one for 10% of my roll let's cash it!

[RoagBettor]

Starting Project Balance: $200.00
Current Project Balance: $350.57
Record: 22-22-1
Plays Pending: 1 (#46)

[Donkwin47]

San Antonio has won every quarter outright and the average quarter has been 36.7 points.. I essentially have San Antonio +2 and Under 48.5.. The monetary difference (swing) between 0-2 and 2-0 is about $875, so needless to say, I NEED THIS. Let's hope I don't get screwed in the 4th at home after dominating wire to wire.

I'm back baby! Huge night!

Aaaand now.... LET'S GO LIBERTY!

[RoagBettor]

San Antonio has won every quarter outright and the average quarter has been 36.7 points.. I essentially have San Antonio +2 and Under 48.5.. The monetary difference (swing) between 0-2 and 2-0 is about $875, so needless to say, I NEED THIS. Let's hope I don't get screwed in the 4th at home after dominating wire to wire.

Glad you made that money!

[Donkwin47]

Glad you made that money!

Thanks, bud! Thanks for the under tip.. I knew RAS was on it, but I saw you come strong and that gave me the confidence to go for the jugular.

Now.. LET'S GET TO $10K!!!

[dume walker]

Who or what is RAS?

[sterkarm]

Good shit Donkwin glad things worked out for you. Just gotta keep a positive attitude and things work out. Roag good call 2nite and you did it without going roag. Keep chipping away and we'll be right back to where we were at a few days ago if not better.

[RoagBettor]

Who or what is RAS?

A tout service considered the best in WNBA; had 1 good season but lost money last year and is barely profitable this year. Doubled their rate for this season and only gives plays until July 23.

[RoagBettor]

Good shit Donkwin glad things worked out for you. Just gotta keep a positive attitude and things work out. Roag good call 2nite and you did it without going roag. Keep chipping away and we'll be right back to where we were at a few days ago if not better.

LOL, I was all-in except for $20! That's Going Roag! But it's out of my system at least for another day!

[Donkwin47]

Who or what is RAS?

Right Angle Sports

Widely known as the best basketball capper in the world. In NCAAB, when a play is released, lines move in matter of seconds, literally, and for totals, they move 3-4 points, every game, immediately. Eventually, some lines work their way back up, but in 09-10, the average closing line value was 1.5 points.. Meaning lines closed 1.5 points closer to the side RAS selected on that game. 265-188 (58.50%) for a profit of 61.1 units. I didn't follow closely, but I believe most of his plays were 0.5 or 1 units.

Here's the site: http://www.handicapper.net/

Go to this page and watch the simulation of the line movement: http://www.handicapper.net/line-movement.php

That's how much respect the books give them. And yes, it's serious. Crazy stuff.

Take a look around the site and learn some more for yourself. Hope this helped.

[dume walker]

It does help. Thanks to both you and Roag for the info.

[alias69]

well done mate

[RoagBettor]

well done mate

Thanks for stopping by my friend. How are you doing in World Cup? I thought for sure the USA would get a 2nd goal but it wasn't meant to be.

[samdapatriotsfan]

Right Angle Sports
Here's the site: http://www.handicapper.net/

Go to this page and watch the simulation of the line movement: http://www.handicapper.net/line-movement.php

Thanks for posting this Donk, good stuff!!!