[incomeraise]

Bustabook. this year is your first time trying the simulation right? so u have no idea on how it has done in the past or so? i know it s going well so far, but just wanted to know if u had some sort of succes with it last few years. thank you!

[Glitch]

Summary 12/8:


REALLY aggravated at this point... how the #$@% can New Orleans/Minnesota not score more than 32 points in the 4th quarter when the game is almost garaunteed to go over. And the bulls played the most unmotivated basketball ive ever seen.. fvcking joke. atleast san antonio eeked out a push, that was nice.

I think im going to re-evaluate after tonight. not sure what im going to do but i know i feel like scrapping this thing. just not getting the results i wanted.

maybe i just need to blow off some steam, GL everyone.

dont give up dude....real interesting stuff....maybe there should be some sorta modifier for home court advantage if possible. who knows. this IS interesting stuff tho

[bustabook]

glitch... thanks for the support. that day i was frustrated because of things beyond the scope of this thread and i just needed to blow some steam off. i am going to keep on this thing as long as i see potential, though.

thanks again

[bustabook]

incomeraise.. this is my first "simulation" program. also, it is my first attempt at anything to do with basketball.

however, i have some experience creating handicapping-related software.. i made a football program a couple years ago that crunched about 25-30 stats (among some other things) which resulted in a predicted score, and i have made quite a few other small things.. one involving line-movements in baseball, another that analyzed lines (in general) vs outcomes for the last 15-20 years in NFL. those were pretty interesting but i never got anything really valuable out of them (other than experience), as i think i gave up too early.

anyway, best of luck..

[BossE]

Hey busta i noticed your system, in a forum and i had to see your blogs, i noticed your have been doing quiet well in NBA and was wondering if you ever do Parlays with this system 57-38 speaks to me LOL.. well hope you add me to friends goodluck brother!

[suicidekings]

Following your lead, I decided to step into the world of simulations. I just built my first (very basic) simulation model for the NBA (**, 5000 trials per game). I kept it simple to start, just using PF & PA, subdivided by road and home games, with the upper and lower boundaries being defined as a function of the standard deviation on each team's PF/PA for home/away. Fun stuff on it's own, and much more fun when other guys like you and TGoat are at it as well.

I'm thinking correlated parlays are an attractive option for actually applying the results. First test tonight will be IND ML / Under 198.5 (+221) for a very small stake. My projected %s match up well with yours for this game (IND SU win: 73.6%, Under: 82.7%), but I get IND -4 & O/U 192 as a fair line so I opted for the ML instead of the spread..

GL tonight.

[bustabook]

bosse thanks for the support...

i haven't incorporated parlays into it yet, but i may in the future. i am still learning the strengths and weaknesses of the system just as i'm sure everyone following my thread is.

[bustabook]

suicide thats awesome!! you sound like me when i first started, "..started simple.." LOL. i agree with you on the fun part, too.. there is nothing like the feeling of accomplishment after your system starts showing potential. its like raising a kid (i think).

as for the system.. i think the base is the MOST important part of any system, and yours seems to be solid and well thought out. my only advice (pertaining to the basic model) is to keep it simple so you can adjust it easily until you have it right about where you want it.. and THEN start tinkering with the more complex parts.

right on with the correlated plays aspect of this, i haven't gone down that road yet (for reasons, see post directly above this one).

BOL suicide, be sure to let me know how things are going..

[mlb]

wanna give your system a shot if that's cool with you... I notice it's hitting pretty good for you .. do you recommend playing all spreads and totals to get best results?

i wanna try it tonight.. let me know thanks and keep it up

[bustabook]

mlb, i recommend playing everything for 1 unit... that is what the record and units shown is based on.

i know intuitively its hard to bet so many games but it has shown to work here. GL i hope i can make you a little money tonight and thanks for the support.

[mlb]

thanks for the response.. quick one at that ... im going to play all of them for a unit tonight .. i like the success your having so lets do it .. hopefully you will make me some money tonight ... i will respond back hopefully good with praise or bad (without hurtful language ... don't worry) but let's hope good

looking forward to see this over a stretch of time .. thanks

[bustabook]

if i lose i will be harder on myself than anyone else will trust me, LOL.

i actually appreciate criticism, as long as it is constructive (but hopefully there will be none of that tonight)...

GL tonight, talk to you later on.

[mlb]

Thanks a lot .. will check back with some evaluations of loses .. hopefully none .. GL

peace

[bustabook]

Summary 12/11:

Side plays:
Indiana (-3.5)
Houston (-3)
Atlanta (-4)
Golden State (+4)
Oklahoma City (+2)
Charlotte (+8)
LA Lakers (-15.5)
Orlando (+2.5)

Total plays:
New Jersey/Indiana Under 199.5
Houston/Philadelphia Over 194.5
Golden State/Chicago Over 213.5
Portland/Cleveland Over 184
Oklahoma City/Memphis Over 199
New York/New Orleans Over 210 *where did i get 210?
Minnesota/LA Lakers Under 200
Orlando/Phoenix Under 216

-------------------

Most people probably won the New Orleans over, but i have it as a loss since i had a terrible line. So depending on the late games it looks like tonight's win pct. will be right around 50% and a small loss, probably less than 1 unit.

anyway, hope you all did well tonight.. will update when late games end.

[SpreadSniper]

GS REALLY has me choked right now.... GS spread + OT and couldn`t keep it close. what shoulda been a 2K night turns into a 200 loss.......

Good job on the night tho bro.... Keep on keepin on....

[bustabook]

yeah that golden state was definately the right play.. they were WAY up early.. and covering the entire game except for about 2 minutes in the 3rd quarter and the last 10 seconds of OT. terrible loss sniper.. also thought charlotte was going to pull through but they got outscored by 18 in the 4th.

anyway, BOL on the late games.

[incomeraise]

look like its going to be an 8-8 night.
we ll do better tomorrow. i dont know why but i had a feeling like we were going to have a 50% night at least. couple of tough plays( GS.and Ny vs New Orleans was a win for me i don't know where u got 210)

[mlb]

Bustabank man .... I took 17 games .. all the ones with spreads or totals over 52%. I went 9-5-2 with the spreads at my book. I only put a .5 unit on all of them but still made 1.75 units. God damn... was a good night tho and without some collapses woulda been a lot better... very interested to see tomorrows and see this thing going forward... thanks a lot tho ... made me some good money... tomorrow going with a unit... when you think you will have them up?

[mlb]

16* games .. my 17th was the 2nd half play of the Lakes and they came thru

[bustabook]

Summary 12/11:

Side plays:
Indiana (-3.5)
Houston (-3)
Atlanta (-4)
Golden State (+4)
Oklahoma City (+2)
Charlotte (+8)
LA Lakers (-15.5)
Orlando (+2.5)

Total plays:
New Jersey/Indiana Under 199.5
Houston/Philadelphia Over 194.5
Golden State/Chicago Over 213.5
Portland/Cleveland Over 184
Oklahoma City/Memphis Over 199
New York/New Orleans Over 210 *where did i get 210?
Minnesota/LA Lakers Under 200
Orlando/Phoenix Under 216

-------------------
8-8, -0.8 Units

Overall:
65-46 (59%), +14.4 Units
--------------------

Overall a pretty disappointing night, considering we could've been much better had a few bounces gone our way. Also, most of you certainly got a much better line on the New Orleans total, resulting in a win instead of a loss. But enough of that talk..

the bottom line is that we went 50% tonight, which means we have gone 50% or better every night since this thread started 8 days ago, and i think thats pretty damn impressive.

i am running the sims right now for tomorrows games, and the official plays should be up before 7 a.m.

[bustabook]

nice work mlb... i figured that those of you who got plays in late tonight got better lines (specifically with the totals)..

congrats on the good night though, we will try to make you more tomorrow.

[bustabook]

Official plays 12/12:

Indiana @ Washington (-8) 206
Average Score: Indiana 97 - Washington 99 (sim line: was -2, 196)
Outright wins: Indiana 417 - Washington 558 (Washington 57.2%)
ATS wins: Indiana 642 - Washington 331 (Indiana 66.0%)
O/U: Over 226 - Under 758 (Under 77.0%)

Boston @ Chicago (9) 187
Average Score: Boston 98 - Chicago 87 (sim line: bos -11, 185)
Outright wins: Boston 788 - Chicago 196 (Boston 80.1%)
ATS wins: Boston 547 - Chicago 424 (Boston 56.3%)
O/U: Over 435 - Under 536 (Under 55.2%)

Portland @ Milwaukee (-3) 189.5
Average Score: Portland 91 - Milwaukee 95 (sim line: mil -4, 186)
Outright wins: Portland 374 - Milwaukee 594 (Milwaukee 61.4%)
ATS wins: Portland 445 - Milwaukee 526 (Milwaukee 54.2%)
O/U: Over 400 - Under 600 (Under 60.0%)

Phoenix @ Denver (-8.5) 228.5
Average Score: Phoenix 103 - Denver 117 (sim line: den -14, 220)
Outright wins: Phoenix 172 - Denver 811 (Denver 82.5%)
ATS wins: Phoenix 348 - Denver 652 (Denver 65.2%)
O/U: Over 290 - Under 710 (Under 71.0%)

LA Lakers @ Utah (1.5) 203.5
Average Score: LA Lakers 100 - Utah 93 (sim line: LAL -7, 193)
Outright wins: LA Lakers 680 - Utah 294 (Los Angeles 69.8%)
ATS wins: LA Lakers 657 - Utah 343 (Los Angeles 65.7%)
O/U: Over 240 - Under 760 (Under 76.0%)

*NOTE* The LAL/Utah results should be used with caution due to the Bryant injury, which IS NOT accounted for in simulations but IS accounted for in the vegas lines. i am calling this game (both side and total) a NO PLAY as of right now because of the uncertainty surrounding this game.

Minnesota @ Sacramento (-7.5) 206
Average Score: Minnesota 104 - Sacramento 109 (sim line: sac -5, 213)
Outright wins: Minnesota 360 - Sacramento 611 (Sacramento 62.9%)
ATS wins: Minnesota 569 - Sacramento 431 (Minnesota 56.9%)
O/U: Over 654 - Under 313 (Over 65.4%)

-------------------

Side plays:
Indiana (+8)
Boston (-9)
Milwaukee (-3)
Denver (-8.5)
LA Lakers (-1.5)
Minnesota (+7.5)

Total plays:
Indiana/Washington Under 206
Boston/Chicago Under 187
Portland/Milwaukee Under 189.5
Phoenix/Denver Under 228.5
LA Lakers/Utah Under 203.5
Minnesota/Sacramento Over 206

--------------------

Here are the plays for saturday, 12/12. i have not included Golden State/Detroit or Charlotte/Dallas because the lines for those games have not been released. I should have them up by about 3 p.m. EST.

GL

[Wind gara]

i really like boston game over.
they always score alot against each other.

and portland game over too. neither has defence

[Bega]

Just to say that you are doin good job Busta..... Also one advice for you, maybe you should consider not playing Lakers ATS anymore especially when they have huge line cuz they almost never cover it, not that they cant , they just dont give a sh** , so skiping Lakers ATS = automatic Unit saved LOL ..... Also buying a half point with games who hase line with half point in it can help you get some units or if you have push to save you some units, cuz if you lose you didnt lose a lot, but on the long run you would have more winners..... Like yest I had push with Orlando +3 and GS +5 , both .5 bought and save them and if I add saved Unit from Lakers game I had saved 3 Units all together yest..... Anyways, keep doing great job and GL !!

[bustabook]

for the sake of the people following this thread, i hope you are wrong wind gara!! LOL

bega, thanks for the post (i see its your first, welcome!).. i agree that the lakers haven't covered in the last few games, but that doesn't automatically make them a bad play from now on does it? actually last night i think they were the correct play, as even with koby going down they were still up by ~20 going into the 4th quarter. also, the system doesn't always go against lakers (since the start of this thread, i think it is about 50/50 on laker sides) so there doesn't seem to be a bias on them.

i don't handicap these games and if i did there may be a couple i leave out.. this thread is for the model and ITS plays. having said that, i don't recommend going against any of its plays (after all, it is hitting at ~60% which is far better than i can do handicapping on my own).

BOL bega and windgara.. i will have the other two plays up with about 15 minutes.

[suicidekings]

Hmm.. we don't agree on many games today. I like the IND side & total, the DEN Under, and the SAC Over, but otherwise I'm on the other side of everything. Hopefully the ones we agree on will be winners today. GL.

[bustabook]

here are the last two for the night...

-----------------

Golden State @ Detroit (-5.5) 205.5
Average Score: Golden State 102 - Detroit 109 (sim line: det -7, 211)
Outright wins: Golden State 314 - Detroit 666 (Detroit 68.0%)
ATS wins: Golden State 452 - Detroit 548 (Detroit 54.8%)
O/U: Over 646 - Under 354 (Over 64.6%)

Charlotte @ Dallas (-7) 189
Average Score: Charlotte 90 - Dallas 92 (sim line: Dal -2, 182)
Outright wins: Charlotte 421 - Dallas 548 (Dallas 56.6%)
ATS wins: Charlotte 615 - Dallas 356 (Charlotte 63.3%)
O/U: Over 300 - Under 675 (Under 69.2%)

--------------------

In summary, the plays for 12/11 (official) are:

Indiana (+8)
Detroit (-5.5)
Boston (-9)
Charlotte (+7)
Milwaukee (-3)
Denver (-8.5)
Minnesota (+7.5)

Indiana/Washington Under 206
Golden State/Detroit Over 205.5
Boston/Chicago Under 187
Charlotte/Dallas Under 189
Portland/Milwaukee Under 189.5
Phoenix/Denver Under 228.5
Minnesota/Sacramento Over 206

(14 plays)
-------------------

GL tonight everyone..

[bustabook]

hopefully suicide!

[mlb]

back for round 2 .. lets cash some more for the night ... ill let you know my results with my spreads later ... GL

[bustabook]

cool mlb.. let me know.

its seems like a tough night to handicap.. so we will see.. lets knock em dead.. GL

[vietgamble]

opposite most of your plays tonight.. But Good luck any way

[bustabook]

sorry viet.. but GL to you too.

[Wind gara]

portland /mil game need to pick up the scoring!
boston /chicago is going to come really close

[incomeraise]

here are the last two for the night...

-----------------

Golden State @ Detroit (-5.5) 205.5
Average Score: Golden State 102 - Detroit 109 (sim line: det -7, 211)
Outright wins: Golden State 314 - Detroit 666 (Detroit 68.0%)
ATS wins: Golden State 452 - Detroit 548 (Detroit 54.8%)
O/U: Over 646 - Under 354 (Over 64.6%)

Charlotte @ Dallas (-7) 189
Average Score: Charlotte 90 - Dallas 92 (sim line: Dal -2, 182)
Outright wins: Charlotte 421 - Dallas 548 (Dallas 56.6%)
ATS wins: Charlotte 615 - Dallas 356 (Charlotte 63.3%)
O/U: Over 300 - Under 675 (Under 69.2%)

--------------------

In summary, the plays for 12/11 (official) are:

Indiana (+8)
Detroit (-5.5)
Boston (-9)
Charlotte (+7)
Milwaukee (-3)
Denver (-8.5)
Minnesota (+7.5)

Indiana/Washington Under 206
Golden State/Detroit Over 205.5
Boston/Chicago Under 187
Charlotte/Dallas Under 189
Portland/Milwaukee Under 189.5
Phoenix/Denver Under 228.5
Minnesota/Sacramento Over 206

(14 plays)
-------------------

GL tonight everyone..

i followed all your plays but 2. I took portland and thinking about going with Sacramento instead of Minnesota.Just dont see Milwaukee beating protland, and for the Sacramento one i am not sure but another system that i follow as well has them as a play. Good luck on the rest of ur plays, I like what u have done so far...

[Wind gara]

oh god chicago really really suxs huh?