Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[suicidekings]

i think it's just because the average scores of the simulations give SAC 108 NOH 106, that's where he gets the SAC -2 line.

No, I know. I meant the stats that went into the calculation, as my end result is quite a bit different on this one game.

[clazzi]

this is awesome stuff. i joined the forums just so i could tell you and thank you. i only found this post last night so i haven't reaped the benefits but great record so far let's hope it continues!

thanks for all your hard work!

[SpreadSniper]

Pulling up a chair and microwaving some popcorn

[willysu]

bustabook, how come you didnt simulate the ORL/LAC game? This is some good stuff you got here. Might be tailing a majority of the picks.

[bustabook]

here we go, official plays for 12/8...

12/8:

Denver @ Charlotte (3) 204 (2000 simulations)
Average Score: Denver 95 - Charlotte 96 (sim line: cha -1, 191)
Outright wins: Denver 889 - Charlotte 1038
ATS wins: Denver 714 - Charlotte 1266
O/U: Over 339 - Under 1643

Minnesota @ Toronto (-8) 212 (2000)
Average Score: Minnesota 102 - Toronto 112 (sim line: tor -10, 214)
Outright wins: Minnesota 511 - Toronto 1440
ATS wins: Minnesota 886 - Toronto 1062
O/U: Over 1055 - Under 899

Milwaukee @ Boston (-12.5) 191 (3000)
Average Score: Milwaukee 88 - Boston 100 (sim line: bos -12, 188)
Outright wins: Milwaukee 599 - Boston 2349
ATS wins: Milwaukee 1531 - Boston 1469
O/U: Over 1174 - Under 1748

New Jersey @ Chicago (-7.5) 192.5 (3000)
Average Score: New Jersey 94 - Chicago 92 (sim line: NJ -2, 186)
Outright wins: New Jersey 1625 - Chicago 1289
ATS wins: New Jersey 2188 - Chicago 793
O/U: Over 1063 - Under 1917

Cleveland @ Memphis (7.5) 193.5 (2000)
Average Score: Cleveland 108 - Memphis 94 (sim line: Cle -14, 202)
Outright wins: Cleveland 1608 - Memphis 355
ATS wins: Cleveland 1294 - Memphis 706
O/U: Over 1482 - Under 518

Sacramento @ New Orleans (-7.5) 212 (2000)
Average Score: Sacramento 107 - New Orleans 107 (sim line: pk, 214)
Outright wins: Sacramento 962 - New Orleans 989
ATS wins: Sacramento 1323 - New Orleans 651
O/U: Over 1125 - Under 854

Phoenix @ Dallas (-4.5) 215 (2000)
Average Score: Phoenix 102 - Dallas 110 (sim line: dal -8, 212)
Outright wins: Phoenix 562 - Dallas 1381
ATS wins: Phoenix 785 - Dallas 1194
O/U: Over 828 - Under 1142

Orlando @ LA Clippers (7) 194 (3000)
Average Score: Orlando 98 - LA Clippers 94 (sim line: Orl -4, 192)
Outright wins: Orlando 1767 - LA Clippers 1143
ATS wins: Orlando 1196 - LA Clippers 1708
O/U: Over 1300 - Under 1627

-------------------

I just got up and posted these as quickly as possible... i haven't gotten a chance to check current lines, but if the lines have moved too much i would avoid betting plays. the plays are based on THESE lines and a shift in 1-2 points could change percentages very much.. GL

Side plays:
Charlotte +3
Toronto -8
Milwaukee +12.5 *too close to 50%, omitted
NJ +7.5
Cleveland -7.5
Sacramento +7.5
Dallas -4.5
LA Clippers +7

Total plays:
Denver/Charlotte Under 204
Minnesota/Toronto Over 212
Milwaukee/Boston Under 191
New Jersey/Chicago Under 192.5
Cleveland/Memphis Over 193.5
Sacramento/New Orleans Over 212
Phoenix/Dallas Under 215
Orlando/LA Clippers Under 194 *line change

--------------------

Again, these lines are from last night when i began simulations. as of now, i have omitted certain games with big line changes that may have affected outcomes.

GL

[bustabook]

sorry everyone i just woke up.. i guess thats what you get when you play on the computer until 7AM, LOL.

thanks clazzi, i love to hear that other people are enjoying this as much as i am.

as for tonights games... i am a little worried, as a few of the lines i expected to move did not (or moved the other way). the ones i am worried about (only because of line movement) are Min/Tor OVER, Mil/Bos UNDER, Sacramento, Sac/NO OVER. All of the other lines either went in expected direction or did not move much.

[bustabook]

i am currently running simulations for orlando/LAC(+7) 191.5 so i should have a total play for that game by gametime.

[acarmelo1]

keep me posted men!!!!
by the way which PC game were you playing COD MW 2?

[bustabook]

in second set of Orlando/LA Clippers simulations, overs/unders were 50.9%/49.1%, respectively... no play.

[sportscash]

i like cleveland and dallas.good stuff

[Glitch]

i hope that bobcats shit is wrong.

.....aaaaaaand its not.

good calls.

[bustabook]

lol glitch.. sorry man.

in other news, minnesota hits a meaningless layup with 0.3 seconds left to lose the toronto play... BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. owell, probably shouldnt have been that close anyway.

[acarmelo1]

Impressive!!!

[alittlemoresound]

Nice picking machine man.... my eyes are in this thread for sure.. Another thing to take into consideration is 1st half betting. If you look at the first halfs of all your picks tonight.. alot of them would of covered. I think its best to wager 50% 1st half 50% entire game... because you will break even more than you would just betting the entire game. I know it sounds stupid but its good stuff. I like ur style man...

[bustabook]

Summary 12/8:

Side plays:
Charlotte +3
Toronto -8
NJ +7.5
Sacramento +7.5
Cleveland -7.5
Dallas -4.5
LA Clippers +7



Total plays:
Denver/Charlotte Under 204
Minnesota/Toronto Over 212
Phoenix/Dallas Under 215
Milwaukee/Boston Under 191
Cleveland/Memphis Over 193.5
Sacramento/New Orleans Over 212
New Jersey/Chicago Under 192.5


--------------------
7-7, -0.7 units


Overall:
46-29. +14.1 units
--------------------

Disappointing night... system went 7-7 (50%, -0.7 units). Also took 2 wins away from myself when i scratched milwaukee and the orlando under.. pleh.


Here i am saying that it was a bad night but the model was 50%... That has to be a good thing, LOL.

[bustabook]

Thanks for the support sound.. i like to hear that people are actually interested in this, makes me keep on it.

I just found something on 1st/2nd half statistics on this forum, but i cant remember who posted it. When i downloaded it my eyes lit up and the gears started churning in my head.

I agree that tonight it wouldve been better to lay some on the 1st halves, but im not sure what the overall stats would be if i were using your idea since 12/3 (when this thread started). if i get a minute or two i will look back and see how it would work.. Thanks.

[bustabook]

here are the overall results for the past 6 days (every play over 50% in simulations):

12/3: 3-3 (50%)
12/4: 12-8 (60%)
12/5: 12-6 (67%)
12/6: 6-4 (60%)
12/7: 6-1 (86%)
12/8: 7-7 (50%)
-----------------------
Overall: 46-29 (61%)

[jcygts6]

very good so far... no need to expect perfect days all the time =]

[alittlemoresound]

I like Clev -2 jump on it now..... and i like Indiana +6.. also New Jersey +2.5... but those are just blind picks. Havnt looked at the #'s. I cashed on the Magic 2nd Half.... so tomorow im looking for a 4 team parlay to drop 100units on to win 1000units. Lets see what picks the machine rolls out.....

[MV]

so tomorow im looking for a 4 team parlay to drop 100units on to win 1000units. Lets see what picks the machine rolls out.....

you better have a small bankroll.

[alittlemoresound]

Also For some reason with the plays ive been making Ive seen a small Pattern of this....

If your betting...HOME TEAM /favorite - points = pick the UNDER
if your betting...AWAY TEAM /DOG + POINTS =pick the OVER

[alittlemoresound]

I do have a small bank roll. The way i do it.. is i try to make $$ to save.. and i try to make $ to bet more $ so i have a few $100 BOMBS saved up on a book... i wanna drop one maybe tomorow if it looks good..ive hit 2 of those this season in NFL.. so now its time to cash NBA

[vle909]

ill be following closely to your thread for future picks. nice job and keep up the good work!

[bustabook]

hey guys... here are preliminary picks for 12/9 (1000 simulations):


Chicago @ Atlanta (-11) 195
Average Score: Chicago 94 - Atlanta 105 (sim line: Atl -11, 199)
Outright wins: Chicago 230 - Atlanta 752
ATS wins: Chicago 486 - Atlanta 482
O/U: Over 589 - Under 378

Portland @ Indiana (5.5) 191
Average Score: Portland 93 - Indiana 91 (sim line: Por -2, 184)
Outright wins: Portland 556 - Indiana 426
ATS wins: Portland 410 - Indiana 590
O/U: Over 320 - Under 650

Golden State @ New Jersey (1) 217
Average Score: Golden State 104 - New Jersey 106 (sim line: NJ -2, 210)
Outright wins: Golden State 425 - New Jersey 551
ATS wins: Golden State 404 - New Jersey 575
O/U: Over 288 - Under 686

New Orleans @ Minnesota (4) 198.5
Average Score: New Orleans 106 - Minnesota 101 (sim line: NO -6, 208)
Outright wins: New Orleans 617 - Minnesota 363
ATS wins: New Orleans 512 - Minnesota 461
O/U: Over 724 - Under 276

Cleveland @ Houston (3) 194.5
Average Score: Cleveland 100 - Houston 97 (sim line: Cle -3, 197)
Outright wins: Cleveland 556 - Houston 420
ATS wins: Cleveland 447 - Houston 524
O/U: Over 578 - Under 422

Sacramento @ San Antonio (-12) 204
Average Score: Sacramento 96 - San Antonio 109 (sim line: SA -13, 205)
Outright wins: Sacramento 193 - San Antonio 790
ATS wins: Sacramento 460 - San Antonio 519
O/U: Over 499 - Under 477

Utah @ LA Lakers (-10) 205
Average Score: Utah 95 - LA Lakers 102 (sim line: LAL -7, 197)
Outright wins: Utah 305 - LA Lakers 672
ATS wins: Utah 576 - LA Lakers 390
O/U: Over 288 - Under 676

-------------------

Side plays:
Chicago +11
Indiana +5.5
NJ +1
New Orleans -4
Houston +3
San Antonio -12
Utah +10

Total plays:
Chicago/Atlanta Over 195
Portland/Indiana Under 191
Golden State/New Jersey Under 217
New Orleans/Minnesota Over 198.5
Cleveland/Houston Over 194.5
Sacramento/San Antonio Over 204
Utah/LA Lakers Under 205

-----------------

These are simulated using data from 12/7... i just like getting these out early so you guys have an idea of where the system is going to take advantage of some line moves. I am running simulations with the newest data now and that should be up around noon or whenever i wake up today... They shouldn't vary all that much from these numbers but we will see, there were alot of games yesterday.

GL

[bustabook]

just tried loading up the new data into my excel file and got a message saying that my 30-day free trial had expired... not sure what im going to do but i will try to figure something out and get the plays out ASAP. ::sigh::

[bustabook]

back on track thanks to my computer ninja skillzzzzz..

[2MuchMoney]

I noticed that Portland is favored by 2 points in the simulations. I'm guessing that those simulations were with Granger in the lineup. Since he's injured, I don't see how Indy will manage to put up enough points to beat Portland. I would be careful with the Indy pick especially because Portland has lost a couple games lately and they are hungry for a win. Best up luck to everybody and keep up the good work bustabook

[bustabook]

2much...

you can look at it two ways... oden is also out for portland, and much of the stat base is w/oden in the lineup (just like granger).

also you said that portland has lost a couple games, but doesn't that mean they aren't playing well right now?

FYI just being a contrarian, as i agree with much of your analysis. GL

[bustabook]

just found out that if i make a copy of the vb project, i can run 2 sets of simulations at the same time!!! on a related note, i think my little laptop computer is going to blow up, LOL.

[2MuchMoney]

Bustabook thanks for your comment. I would propose that Granger means more to Indy than Oden/any injured means to Portland. Portland has lost a few games and that would indicate they are not playing well, but the talent Portland will put on the floor tomorrow night will far outweigh their recent deficiencies. Thanks for doing what your doing Bustabook and I always enjoy intelligent discussion.

[bustabook]

Official plays, 12/9:

Chicago @ Atlanta (-11) 195
Average Score: Chicago 94 - Atlanta 101 (sim line: Atl -7, 195)
Outright wins: Chicago 324 - Atlanta 646 (Atlanta 66.6%)
ATS wins: Chicago 600 - Atlanta 368 (Chicago 62.0%)
O/U: Over 476 - Under 508 (Under 51.6%)

Portland @ Indiana (5.5) 191
Average Score: Portland 93 - Indiana 92 (sim line: Por -1, 185)
Outright wins: Portland 542 - Indiana 425 (Portland 56.0%)
ATS wins: Portland 402 - Indiana 598 (Indiana 59.8%)
O/U: Over 325 - Under 646 (Under 66.5%)

Golden State @ New Jersey (1) 217
Average Score: Golden State 103 - New Jersey 108 (sim line: NJ -5, 211)
Outright wins: Golden State 364 - New Jersey 601 (New Jersey 62.3%)
ATS wins: Golden State 340 - New Jersey 636 (New Jersey 65.2%)
O/U: Over 336 - Under 639 (Under 65.5%)

New Orleans @ Minnesota (4) 198.5
Average Score: New Orleans 104 - Minnesota 101 (sim line: NO -3, 205)
Outright wins: New Orleans 564 - Minnesota 405 (New Orleans 58.2%)
ATS wins: New Orleans 445 - Minnesota 524 (Minnesota 54.1%)
O/U: Over 651 - Under 349 (Over 65.1%)

Cleveland @ Houston (3) 194.5
Average Score: Cleveland 100 - Houston 97 (sim line: Cle -3, 197)
Outright wins: Cleveland 532 - Houston 446 (Cleveland 55.0%)
ATS wins: Cleveland 466 - Houston 516 (Houston 52.5%)
O/U: Over 570 - Under 430 (Over 57.0%)

Sacramento @ San Antonio (-12) 204
Average Score: Sacramento 96 - San Antonio 110 (sim line: SA -14, 206)
Outright wins: Sacramento 161 - San Antonio 812 (San Antonio 83.5%)
ATS wins: Sacramento 445 - San Antonio 538 (San Antonio 54.7%)
O/U: Over 548 - Under 414 (Over 57.0%)

Utah @ LA Lakers (-10) 205
Average Score: Utah 95 - LA Lakers 102 (sim line: LAL -7, 197)
Outright wins: Utah 303 - LA Lakers 680 (LA Lakers 69.2%)
ATS wins: Utah 556 - LA Lakers 427 (Utah 56.6%)
O/U: Over 284 - Under 694 (Under 71.0%)

------------------

Side plays:
Chicago +11 *too close to 50%
Indiana +5.5
New Jersey +1
Minnesota +4
Houston +3 *too close to 50%
San Antonio -12
Utah +10

Total plays:
Chicago/Atlanta (Under 195) *too close to 50%
Portland/Indiana (Under 191)
Golden State/New Jersey (Under 217)
New Orleans/Minnesota (Over 198.5)
Cleveland/Houston (Over 194.5)
Sacramento/San Antonio (Over 204)
Utah/LA Lakers (Under 205)

------------------

Just got lines for Detroit/Philadelphia and Toronto/Milwaukee... should be up in a few.

GL

[MV]

tailing on UTA@LAL, GS@NJ, POR@IND, all UNDER!

[bustabook]

i like all those plays, not just because of the simulations either...

[MV]

yep! but the sims make it more justifiable (at least to me, lol) to jump the fence!

[SpreadSniper]

I too am curious about the loss of Oden and Granger in the POR @ IND game.... is this accounted for?