yeah it seems like when they get down they just completely give up... something to remember for future reference maybe.
hopefully it helps our under play.
hopefully it helps our under play.
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damm game over. with house on the bench 14 points are not touchable with 2 minutes leftComment -
wind.. i forgot you were on the over. i thought you were rooting for the under! sorry man.Comment -
what number did you have? i think you may have gotten lucky at the end there.. play was for UNDER 187 so i win my play.Comment -
bustabook the portland game is a good one ...it s so close lol he could go either way. or both of us will push
I am not trying to kiss ur*** but i really like ur system, its like no matter how many plays are in there, i dont really stress, i feel like we ll come on top or be even at least.Am sure we ll have some bad days...but so far so goodComment -
wow guys we are really getting screwed here. dallas AND portland go on runs at the end of the game to send them BOTH to overtime. we had BOTH underdogs and BOTH unders. HOLY SH!T.Comment -
correction, milwaukee was a favorite but it still sucks.Comment -
lost my parley by 1.5 points in boston game.!!! 2 fts!! grrComment -
Summary, 12/12:
Side plays:
Indiana (+8)
Detroit (-5.5)
Boston (-9)
Charlotte (+7)
Milwaukee (-3)
Denver (-8.5)
Minnesota (+7.5)
O/U plays:
Indiana/Washington Under 206
Golden State/Detroit Over 205.5
Boston/Chicago Under 187
Charlotte/Dallas Under 189
Portland/Milwaukee Under 189.5
Phoenix/Denver Under 228.5
Minnesota/Sacramento Over 206
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8-6, +1.4 Units
Overall:
73-52, +15.8 Units
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Nice night tonight, made some money.
Having said that... DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN!!! it looked like we had a great night brewing with the charlotte/dallas and portland/milwaukee unders looking like locks.. BUT... both of our teams blew late leads and sent BOTH games into overtime, where they BOTH went over. so instead of having a 10-4 or 9-5 night, we end up at 8-6.. sigh.
anyway, this marks our 10th straight night going 50% or better.. and i'm pretty damn proud of that.
talk to you guys soon.. GL
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yes man ... same as you .. 8-6 +1.4 units with your system .. thanks man ...
i love it
looking forward to tomorrowsComment -
nice work mlb.. you are up about 3 units (2 days) right?Comment -
Hope your system can win consistently for the rest of the season then everyone here will be rich soon. glComment -
3.15 units
... im a college student and thats some nice cash for me
Comment -
lol 18kk... that makes 2 of us.
mlb.. i've been there before, nice work.. we will try to keep plugging tomorrow.Comment -
Daily results for 12/3-12/12 (10 days):
12/3: 3-3 (50%)
12/4: 12-8 (60%)
12/5: 12-6 (67%)
12/6: 6-4 (60%)
12/7: 6-1 (86%)
12/8: 7-7 (50%)
12/9: 7-7 (50%)
12/10: 4-2 (67%)
12/11: 8-8 (50%)
12/12: 8-6 (57%)
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Overall: 73-52 (58%), +15.8 Units
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i know we are bound to have a losing day (< 50%), but it hasn't happened yet. so until then, i am going to toot my own horn.. LOL sorry.. also, most of you are probably actually doing BETTER than this by getting better lines. i have used overnight lines, left unchanged, for all the plays.
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Official plays, 12/13:
Houston @ Toronto (1.5) 203
Average Score: Houston 109 - Toronto 102 (sim line: Hou -7, 211)
Outright wins: Houston 664 - Toronto 312 (Houston 68.0%)
ATS wins: Houston 640 - Toronto 360 (Houston 64.0%)
O/U: Over 687 - Under 277 (Over 71.3%)
New Jersey @ Atlanta (-12.5) 198.5
Average Score: New Jersey 87 - Atlanta 105 (sim line: Atl -18, 192)
Outright wins: New Jersey 121 - Atlanta 861 (Atlanta 87.7%)
ATS wins: New Jersey 372 - Atlanta 628 (Atlanta 62.8%)
O/U: Over 322 - Under 678 (Under 67.8%)
Memphis @ Miami (-7) 199
Average Score: Memphis 102 - Miami 111 (sim line: Mia -9, 213)
Outright wins: Memphis 262 - Miami 715 (Miami 73.2%)
ATS wins: Memphis 436 - Miami 537 (Miami 55.2%)
O/U: Over 796 - Under 188 (Over 80.9%)
Cleveland @ Okla City (3.5) 191
Average Score: Cleveland 92 - Okla City 93 (sim line: OKC -1, 185)
Outright wins: Cleveland 454 - Okla City 521 (Oklahoma City 53.4%)
ATS wins: Cleveland 374 - Okla City 626 (Oklahoma City 62.6%)
O/U: Over 327 - Under 654 (Under 66.7%)
San Antonio @ LA Clippers (6) 187
Average Score: San Antonio 97 - LA Clippers 94 (sim line: SA -3, 191)
Outright wins: San Antonio 571 - LA Clippers 405 (San Antonio 58.5%)
ATS wins: San Antonio 405 - LA Clippers 571 (LA Clippers 58.5%)
O/U: Over 610 - Under 364 (Over 62.6%)
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Side plays:
Houston (-1.5)
Atlanta (-12.5)
Miami (-7)
Oklahoma City (+3.5)
LA Clippers (+6)
O/U plays:
Houston/Toronto Over 203
New Jersey/Atlanta Under 198.5
Memphis/Miami Over 199
Cleveland/Oklahoma City Under 191
San Antonio/LA Clippers Over 187
(10 plays)
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Here are the plays for 12/13.. GLComment -
Strange as it may seem we are exactly the opposite on every total. That means one of us is probably going to have a good day. [My guess is one of us will go 3-2 and the other 2-3.]Originally posted by bustabook
Good luckComment -
really? i dont think i like that... i would much rather be on the SAME side on every single total lol.
BOL goat i am really digging your thread/system..Comment -
i really like cavs game over 191.Comment -
bro mia vs mem is 199 and over looks riskyComment -
windgara... one of the main goals of this program was to design something that took all of the subjectivity out of the betting process. but i also think that this program should only be used as a tool (albeit a good one so far) in the process of choosing a play. that said, if you feel strongly about your plays i think you should play them.. as you may have better information (or information analysis) than i do.
also, if you dont like my over/under plays for sunday.. you should check out TGoat's thread, you will LOVE his plays... hehe. his system has shown to be very strong and he noted earlier that everyone of his totals are different than mine.
GL
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keep up the great work bustabook!
DO WORK + KROW OD
do work! do work! do work! do work!
od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
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tyvm jcyComment -
FWIW, I agree with 4/5 of busta's totals, differing only on the OKC game.Originally posted by TGoatComment -
how about this... one day we all get on the same sides of these totals and wipe the board clean!!Comment -
Summary, 12/13:
Side plays:
Houston (-1.5)
Atlanta (-12.5)
Miami (-7)
Oklahoma City (+3.5)
LA Clippers (+6)
O/U plays:
Houston/Toronto Over 203
New Jersey/Atlanta Under 198.5
Memphis/Miami Over 199
Cleveland/Oklahoma City Under 191
San Antonio/LA Clippers Over 187
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3-6, -3.6 Units
Overall:
76-58, +12.2 Units
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well, looks like we finally had a losing night.. sorry guys.. hopefull by chance you guys were watching football today and forgot about basketball.
i will have tomorrows games up within a couple of hours.
*NOTE* i began developing an NCAA model which uses a process similar to this one. Visit the NCAA basketball thread to take a look.. its going well so far.Comment -
Seems that you called your "loosing nite" yesterday! :P
j/k dude
cheer up and get 'em tomorrow !
bol
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Everyone has ups and downs. Keep it up and we would like to see the overall outcome of your program. glComment -
3-6-1 ... back at it again tomorrow .. im liking the progress on the ncaa one as wellComment -
was going to happen sometimes, just sad that its when i decide to completely go with it, that it happens...lol
better days to come i hopeComment -
So, I spent a little time today working on adjustments for scheduie/rest. I read the link you sent me, and it was interesting. The numbers I came up with are taken as the average MOVs for the various situations listed for all teams this season, pulled from my game logs, with a couple of minor tweaks.
A) B2B Game 1: -1.5pts
B) B2B Game 2: -3pts
C) 3rd Game in 4 Days: -1pt
D) 4th Game in 5 Days: -3pts
E) 4th Game in 6 Days: -2pts
F) B2B Game 2 is on the Road: -1pt
More details in my thread. Lemme know what you think of this as a starting point.Comment -
very nice work suicide... if you dont mind me stealing your findings... i am giong to implement this in my project for use from here on out.
have you backtested it for prior seasons by any chance?
btw, your post is the very reason i dont mind sharing my results on this forum.. i am very grateful for all the help you (and everyone else) has offered throughout the thread.Comment -
Is there a differentiation between back to back road games and back to back games one on the road the other at home. Plus there is home to road and road to home. I have no idea if those things make a difference, but I have seen some strange things.Originally posted by suicidekings
For example a team plays at home and then goes on the road and shoots the lights out. Conversely, a team plays like God on the road and then goes home and spits it out.
One thing is for certain: scheduling takes its toll. The line makers know this and supposedly build this into the line. It's a tricky subject.Comment -
i have also seen some nutty things, but i dont think you can handicap "nutty things".
i think you have to handicap the norm, and i think suicide's post (if backtesting supports) is a very good starting point for handicapping the norm, pertaining to days of rest (home and road).Comment -
Official plays, 12/14:
Golden State @ Philadelphia (-3.5) 209.5
Average Score: Golden State 112 - Philadelphia 112 (Sim line: PK, 224)
Outright wins: Golden State 508 - Philadelphia 469 (Golden State 52.0%)
ATS wins: Golden State 608 - Philadelphia 392 (Golden State 60.8%)
O/U: Over 829 - Under 171 (Over 82.9%)
Boston @ Memphis (8) 194.5
Average Score: Boston 106 - Memphis 91 (Sim line: Boston -15, 197)
Outright wins: Boston 840 - Memphis 143 (Boston 85.5%)
ATS wins: Boston 673 - Memphis 307 (Boston 68.7%)
O/U: Over 576 - Under 424 (Over 57.6%)
New Orleans @ Dallas (-8) 195.5
Average Score: New Orleans 96 - Dallas 110 (Sim line: Dallas -14, 206)
Outright wins: New Orleans 158 - Dallas 821 (Dallas 83.9%)
ATS wins: New Orleans 332 - Dallas 639 (Dallas 65.8%)
O/U: Over 772 - Under 228 (Over 77.2%)
Okla City @ Denver (-10.5) 207.5
Average Score: Okla City 96 - Denver 100 (Sim line: Denver -4, 196)
Outright wins: Okla City 407 - Denver 575 (Denver 58.6%)
ATS wins: Okla City 681 - Denver 319 (Okla City 68.1%)
O/U: Over 207 - Under 793 (Under 79.3%)
Minnesota @ Utah (-13) 201
Average Score: Minnesota 91 - Utah 106 (Sim line: Utah -15, 197)
Outright wins: Minnesota 129 - Utah 848 (Utah 86.8%)
ATS wins: Minnesota 416 - Utah 550 (Utah 56.9%)
O/U: Over 366 - Under 609 (Under 62.5%)
(5 games)
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Side plays:
Golden State (+3.5)
Boston (-8)
Dallas (-8)
Oklahoma City (+10.5)
Utah (-13)
O/U plays:
Golden State/Philadelphia Over 209.5
Boston/Memphis Over 194.5
New Orleans/Dallas Over 195.5
Oklahoma City/Denver Under 207.5
Minnesota/Utah Under 201
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i will add the other games when the lines become available.. looking to do well today after our first sub 50% day yesterday.. GLComment
