Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[bustabook]

New Jersey @ Cleveland (-14) 195
Average Score: New Jersey 86 - Cleveland 103 (Sim line: Cleveland -17, 189)
Outright wins: New Jersey 116 - Cleveland 872 (Cleveland 88.3%)
ATS wins: New Jersey 408 - Cleveland 552 (Cleveland 57.5%)
O/U: Over 328 - Under 642 (Under 66.2%)

Toronto @ Miami (-7) 204
Average Score: Toronto 104 - Miami 112 (Sim line: Miami -8, 216)
Outright wins: Toronto 270 - Miami 705 (Miami 72.3%)
ATS wins: Toronto 466 - Miami 508 (Miami 52.2%)
O/U: Over 773 - Under 209 (Over 78.7%)

Detroit @ Houston (-5) 188
Average Score: Detroit 92 - Houston 100 (Sim line: Houston -8, 192)
Outright wins: Detroit 268 - Houston 695 (Houston 72.2%)
ATS wins: Detroit 403 - Houston 569 (Houston 58.5%)
O/U: Over 569 - Under 408 (Over 58.2%)



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Side plays:
Charlotte (-5)
LA Lakers (-9.5)
San Antonio (+3)
Portland (-7)
Cleveland (-14)
Houston (-5)

O/U plays:
New York/Charlotte Under 197.5
LA Lakers/Chicago Under 194
San Antonio/Phoenix Over 210.5
New Jersey/Cleveland Under 195
Toronto/Miami Over 204
Detroit/Houston Over 188

[mlb]

Let's do this!

[bustabook]

here is the final sheet for tonight.. kinda nervous about it, it has alot of favorites. GL

[bustabook]

gl mlb

[andrewaxia]

Love charlotte tonight

[lafaz32]

Let's bust 'em bookies !

BOL for us tailing some of ur picks!

[bustabook]

GL lafaz... you need a stomach to bet alot of the plays tonight, seems like we are the only ones playing alot of these (especially the favorites).

anyway, hope we can make some money tonight..

[lafaz32]

I know man, some of them are some sort of a coin toss..
but I dunno, I have a good feeling about this!

I hope we cash big tonight!

[TGoat]

Hey Busta why is there such a major difference on yours and Tgoats simulation on the total for yesterdays GSW/PHI game?
Tgoat had 186 and you had 224 thats 38 points, thats a lot.

Busta won that game and I lost it, which would imply his numbers were accurate and mine weren't. It was a high percentage play for me too. However, sometimes teams just shoot the lights out, and other times they can't buy a basket.

Different methods--different results.

[FadeCommonSense]

Incredibly fascinating stuff. What is all this? Statistics mixed with computer programming?

[bustabook]

fade... that is pretty much it.

i know there is no substitute for the traditional way of handicapping a game.. but with all the technology available i think it is absolutely ridiculous to think it cant be beneficial. it should be a part of the process.

[krazey47409]

56% good but im not gonna start using a machines picks until i see one hitting around 65%

[bustabook]

65%? sheesh krazey... talk about some lofty goals LOL...

also, is 57% better than 65% if you have 5-10x volume?

[BullDozer]

Went 3 for 3 on your over/under picks for the New Jersey, Detroit and Toronto games. Thanks for posting!!

[Wind gara]

busta wish i had seen this in time and taken la under!!!!

[lincecum]

Hey guy, I followed you on under/over! I get 6 for 6. Thank you. Sorry for my english. Gonna check this thread every day.

[bigceesa19]

Busta $800 in my pocket for your 6 for 6 picks....Thanks

[bustabook]

Summary, 12/15:

Side plays:
Charlotte (-5)
LA Lakers (-9.5)
San Antonio (+3)
Portland (-7)
Cleveland (-14)
Houston (-5)

O/U plays:
New York/Charlotte Under 197.5
LA Lakers/Chicago Under 194
San Antonio/Phoenix Over 210.5
New Jersey/Cleveland Under 195
Toronto/Miami Over 204
Detroit/Houston Over 188

-----------------
8-3, +4.7 Units


Overall:
91-67 (58%), +17.3 Units
-----------------


Nice night tonight, hope you guys made some money.. 6-0 on totals, wow.


anyway, i will start running sims for tomorrow in a little while and they will be up later on in the morning.. BOL everyone.

[mlb]

Busta .. good stuff again .. totals was a killing .. I was a little worried on the spreads and I think so were you .. but they didnt do terrible either!! thanks man!

[bustabook]

lol, 4 posts all during the time it took me to post the summary.. nice work people!

i love hearing about you guys making money.. i made a little myself..

[bustabook]

yeah that lakers game would have been sweeeeeeeeeet but i am not complaining one bit.. we didn't really deserve that game anyway.

Bulldozer... thanks for the points man!

[FadeCommonSense]

I like BullDozers idea. Every bet you cash with Busta's simulations, you should donate a point. I would donate my points, but I'm not betting right now so I cant tail you.

[bustabook]

thanks fade.. i appreciate all the support and i definately appreciate the points when they are given.

anyway, just had to go back and edit the summary for today to change the portland game to a push.. LOL when things are going well they go well..

on another note.. how about those totals!!???!?!? 6 for 6? we didn't even have a damn sweat!

anyway.. thanks again for the points, those of you who have given.. and ill talk to you guys soon.

GL

[mlb]

hell of a night boys .. thanks to busta mostly ... gotta get ready for tomorrow

[sprn]

Nice results last night!

[jcygts6]

great stuff congrats!

[TGoat]

Excellent job on the totals.

[lafaz32]

for a f*cking great night!
The only pick I didn't booked was the Cavs, so I went 8-2...
I'm really grateful Busta.

BOL man.

[bustabook]

thanks boys!! i don't expect those kinds of results every night, but it is damn fun when it happens, LOL.

[peterpan19]

looks like the totals are doing much better than the sides ?... or is it just me ?

GL

[bustabook]

Official plays, 12/16:

Memphis @ Atlanta (-9.5) 209
Average Score: Memphis 94 - Atlanta 112 (Sim line: Atlanta -18, 206)
Outright wins: Memphis 128 - Atlanta 864 (Atlanta 87.1%)
ATS wins: Memphis 309 - Atlanta 691 (Atlanta 69.1%)
O/U: Over 413 - Under 565 (Under 57.8%)

Charlotte @ Indiana (-3) 194
Average Score: Charlotte 93 - Indiana 94 (Sim line: Indiana -1, 187)
Outright wins: Charlotte 448 - Indiana 520 (Indiana 53.7%)
ATS wins: Charlotte 540 - Indiana 435 (Charlotte 55.4%)
O/U: Over 327 - Under 646 (Under 66.4%)

Utah @ New Jersey (8.5) 198
Average Score: Utah 105 - New Jersey 94 (Sim line: Utah -11, 199)
Outright wins: Utah 774 - New Jersey 202 (Utah 79.3%)
ATS wins: Utah 544 - New Jersey 456 (Utah 54.4%)
O/U: Over 532 - Under 442 (Over 54.6%)

LA Lakers @ Milwaukee (6) 198.5
Average Score: LA Lakers 93 - Milwaukee 94 (Sim line: Milwaukee -1, 187)
Outright wins: LA Lakers 450 - Milwaukee 524 (Milwaukee 53.8%)
ATS wins: LA Lakers 306 - Milwaukee 677 (Milwaukee 68.9%)
O/U: Over 218 - Under 782 (Under 78.2%)

Detroit @ New Orleans (-5.5) 190
Average Score: Detroit 96 - New Orleans 100 (Sim line: New Orleans -4, 196)
Outright wins: Detroit 403 - New Orleans 582 (New Orleans 59.1%)
ATS wins: Detroit 536 - New Orleans 464 (Detroit 53.6%)
O/U: Over 627 - Under 348 (Over 64.3%)

LA Clippers @ Minnesota (-1.5) 191.5
Average Score: LA Clippers 99 - Minnesota 95 (Sim line: LA Clippers -4, 194)
Outright wins: LA Clippers 636 - Minnesota 343 (LA Clippers 65.0%)
ATS wins: LA Clippers 686 - Minnesota 314 (LA Clippers 68.6%)
O/U: Over 572 - Under 428 (Over 57.2%)

Houston @ Denver (-7.5) 206.5
Average Score: Houston 99 - Denver 106 (Sim line: Denver -7, 205)
Outright wins: Houston 303 - Denver 668 (Denver 68.8%)
ATS wins: Houston 497 - Denver 503 (Denver 50.3%)
O/U: Over 449 - Under 551 (Under 55.1%)

Dallas @ Okla City (1.5) 193
Average Score: Dallas 96 - Okla City 95 (Sim line: Dallas -1, 191)
Outright wins: Dallas 517 - Okla City 454 (Dallas 53.2%)
ATS wins: Dallas 492 - Okla City 508 (Okla City 50.8%)
O/U: Over 431 - Under 550 (Under 56.1%)

Washington @ Sacramento (-2) 213
Average Score: Washington 104 - Sacramento 103 (Sim line: Washington -1, 207)
Outright wins: Washington 524 - Sacramento 453 (Washington 53.6%)
ATS wins: Washington 577 - Sacramento 400 (Washington 59.1%)
O/U: Over 328 - Under 645 (Under 66.3%)

San Antonio @ Golden State (5.5) 213.5
Average Score: San Antonio 106 - Golden State 104 (Sim line: San Antonio -2, 210)
Outright wins: San Antonio 559 - Golden State 413 (San Antonio 57.5%)
ATS wins: San Antonio 442 - Golden State 558 (Golden State 55.8%)
O/U: Over 406 - Under 594 (Under 59.4%)


Cleveland @ Philadelphia (5) 196
Average Score: Cleveland 104 - Philadelphia 93 (Sim line: Cleveland -11, 197)
Outright wins: Cleveland 758 - Philadelphia 227 (Cleveland 77.0%)
ATS wins: Cleveland 645 - Philadelphia 333 (Cleveland 66.0%)
O/U: Over 479 - Under 491 (Under 50.6%)

Toronto @ Orlando (-8) 209
Average Score: Toronto 97 - Orlando 114 (Sim line: Orlando -17, 211)
Outright wins: Toronto 133 - Orlando 848 (Orlando 86.4%)
ATS wins: Toronto 281 - Orlando 694 (Orlando 71.2%)
O/U: Over 535 - Under 442 (Over 54.8%)

(12 games)
------------------

Side plays:
Atlanta (-9.5)
Charlotte (+3.5)
Utah (-8.5)
Milwaukee (+6)
LA Clippers (+1.5)
Washington (+2)
Golden State (+5.5)

O/U plays:
Memphis/Atlanta Under 209
Charlotte/Indiana Over 194
LA Lakers/Milwaukee Under 198.5
Detroit/New Orleans Over 190
LA Clippers/Minnesota Over 191.5
Houston/Denver Under 206.5
Dallas/Oklahoma City Under 193
Washington/Sacramento Under 213
San Antonio/Golden State Under 213.5

(16 plays)
-------------------

Here are today's plays.. i noticed my level of nervousness about a sheet correlates with the level of expectations. that being said, i'm pretty nervous about todays sheet.. maybe its just because there are so many games.

anyway, i will run cleveland/philadelphia and toronto/orlando when i get lines for them..

GL today everyone.

[bustabook]

peterpan, thanks for the input..

it seems that way right now, but in the past there have been days where the roles have been switched.

when a get a few more days under my belt i will go back and look to see if there is a big difference.. but you are more than welcome to trudge through the old posts and get a tally.. all the plays are there to see.

GL

[peterpan19]

peterpan, thanks for the input..

it seems that way right now, but in the past there have been days where the roles have been switched.

when a get a few more days under my belt i will go back and look to see if there is a big difference.. but you are more than welcome to trudge through the old posts and get a tally.. all the plays are there to see.

GL

well I did that and totals hit around 62%... sides only at 50%...

GL

[Chillarn]

Gave you 10 points Busta for the awsome Totals Sixpack last night!
Every night you go perfect I will do the same

[lincecum]

Here we go again man!!!! Thanks a lot for doing this job and help us to get money. I'll give you some points now.