Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[djiddish98]

Is that GSW / PHI Total call right?

[bustabook]

ill run it again right now and repost a new set of simulations for you... that does seem ridiculously high.

[djiddish98]

Just checking - you mentioned in another thread about that game saying the system total play was under.

[bustabook]

ahhh i c. now that i think about it.. i thought they were talking about the denver total.. but i am running it again anyway.

[bustabook]

yesterday i added a function to automate all of the percentages and sim lines in the reports... so i am a little more disconnected from my results than when i was manually typing in all the percentages.

[bustabook]

here were the first results for the GS/PHI game..

Golden State @ Philadelphia (-3.5) 209.5
Average Score: Golden State 112 - Philadelphia 112 (Sim line: PK, 224)
Outright wins: Golden State 508 - Philadelphia 469 (Golden State 52.0%)
ATS wins: Golden State 608 - Philadelphia 392 (Golden State 60.8%)
O/U: Over 829 - Under 171 (Over 82.9%)


and here is the second set..

Golden State @ Philadelphia (-4) 210
Average Score: Golden State 112 - Philadelphia 112 (Sim line: PK, 224)
Outright wins: Golden State 504 - Philadelphia 472 (Golden State 51.6%)
ATS wins: Golden State 601 - Philadelphia 380 (Golden State 61.3%)
O/U: Over 798 - Under 185 (Over 81.2%)

-------------------

btw, i am running the sims for Indiana/Orlando and Washington/LA Clippers now and they should be up in about an hour.

[bustabook]

here are the last two plays for today, 12/14:

Indiana @ Orlando (-12.5) 211
Average Score: Indiana 96 - Orlando 100 (Sim line: Orlando -4, 196)
Outright wins: Indiana 400 - Orlando 579 (Orlando 59.1%)
ATS wins: Indiana 712 - Orlando 288 (Indiana 71.2%)
O/U: Over 135 - Under 842 (Under 86.2%)

Washington @ LA Clippers (-1) 195
Average Score: Washington 95 - LA Clippers 100 (Sim line: LA Clippers -5, 195)
Outright wins: Washington 341 - LA Clippers 622 (LA Clippers 64.6%)
ATS wins: Washington 378 - LA Clippers 599 (LA Clippers 61.3%)
O/U: Over 481 - Under 489 (Under 50.4%)

-----------------

Side plays:
Indiana (+12.5)
LA Clippers (-1)

O/U plays:
Indiana/Orlando Under 211

------------------

[bustabook]

For today (12/14), here are all the plays (without percentages):

Side plays:
Golden State (+3.5)
Boston (-8)
Dallas (-8)
Oklahoma City (+10.5)
Utah (-13)
Indiana (+12.5)
LA Clippers (-1)

O/U plays:
Golden State/Philadelphia Over 209.5
Boston/Memphis Over 194.5
New Orleans/Dallas Over 195.5
Oklahoma City/Denver Under 207.5
Minnesota/Utah Under 201
Indiana/Orlando Under 211

-------------------

BOL everyone, i'm off to bed.

[SpreadSniper]

Hey Busta... Just lookin at the OKC +10.5 pick - you really that confident that OKC will cover given they played yesterday (got spanked) and have to travel to Denver on a b2b?

[MV]

i think busta's plays are based on the percentages of the simulations. taking the human factor out.

[SpreadSniper]

Ya I know. But to insert the play below his name leads me to believe he either feels very strongly about it, or it is going to be a large play. I'm currently leaning DEN or NO PLAY so I just wanted to see why he feels strong about this play.

P.S - MV - you a fellow Canuck?

[suicidekings]

I'd tread lightly on OKC, coming off a B2B/3in4 and heading up to Denver. After adding the adjustments for rest, DEN became a much stronger play. I'm actually on DEN -10 (x2).

[Indecent]

Have you done any testing to see how close your simulations percentages are in practice? By this I mean how often your 50-60% bets win, 60-70%, 70-80%, etc. It might help track your performance to see where it is best and worst.

Regardless, I appreciate the work you put in and thank you for posting.

[mlb]

Busta if you get time before the games start would you rerun the regressions for 3 games ... based on my totals.
If you can't no biggey, not sure if you will be on or how long it will take you.

GS/Philly total: 211
Ind/Orlando total: 207.5
NO/Dallas total: 198

if not no big deal. but thanks either way

[MV]

P.S - MV - you a fellow Canuck?

my avatar gives away my location.

[Wind gara]

i got over in dallas game(hopeing they get their head in the game) 18 and 12 points wont cut it. its parleyed with boston over. that looks good but you know the ending is what matters.


got gready and took boston -5 1st 1/2 (yikes)

[Nick6570]

If you don't mind me asking, what program do you use to perform your simulations.
and sorry if this has already been asked, I skimmed through earlier post and didnt see it.

[bustabook]

Side plays:
Golden State (+3.5)
Boston (-8)
Dallas (-8)
Oklahoma City (+10.5)
Utah (-13)
Indiana (+12.5)
LA Clippers (-1)

O/U plays:
Golden State/Philadelphia Over 209.5
Boston/Memphis Over 194.5
New Orleans/Dallas Over 195.5
Oklahoma City/Denver Under 207.5
Minnesota/Utah Under 201
Indiana/Orlando Under 211

-------------------
7-6, +0.4 Units

Overall:
83-64 (56%), +12.6 Units
-------------------

Well, we didn't make a million but we had another winning day.. lost our asses on the favorites today, but the totals were pretty solid..

anyway, i will be running the simulations soon and i will get the plays up ASAP..

[bustabook]

nick, i use visual basic 2008 express edition to run the simulations.. and an excel spreadsheet for my database.

[mlb]

5-5 .. didnt include the 3 over under with different totals but should of .. all that matters is that its another winning day for the system .. lets keep it rolling tomorrow!

[jcygts6]

good luck tomarrow!

[bustabook]

just noticed something of interest regarding the simulation win percentage vs. actual game win percentage...

although in the beginning (the first 2-3 days), the higher % plays in simulations were not winning any more often than the lower % plays.. it seems that they are beginning to show some very promising numbers...

i only checked this over the last 4-5 days or so, but i think the simulations that have a win % of over 70% are 9-3 (75%).

i want to keep following this and see if there is a correlation between my win % and actual win %..

anyway, plays should be up within the hour..

[TGoat]

...

[bustabook]

ahh thanks goat

[TGoat]

NBA Basketball Simulation Record:
83-64 (46%), +12.6 Units

I think you've got a typo in your sig. Shouldn't it read 56% not 46%.

[lafaz32]

keep up the good work busta !

[bustabook]

thanks lafaz.. much appreciated brother!!

[bustabook]

Official plays, 12/15:

New York @ Charlotte (-5) 197.5
Average Score: New York 90 - Charlotte 101 (Sim line: Charlotte -11, 191)
Outright wins: New York 227 - Charlotte 757 (Charlotte 76.9%)
ATS wins: New York 324 - Charlotte 656 (Charlotte 66.9%)
O/U: Over 320 - Under 680 (Under 68.0%)

New Jersey @ Cleveland (-11.5) 199
Average Score: New Jersey 86 - Cleveland 102 (Sim line: Cleveland -16, 188)
Outright wins: New Jersey 141 - Cleveland 849 (Cleveland 85.8%)
ATS wins: New Jersey 372 - Cleveland 628 (Cleveland 62.8%)
O/U: Over 221 - Under 757 (Under 77.4%)

Toronto @ Miami (-5) 204
Average Score: Toronto 104 - Miami 111 (Sim line: Miami -7, 215)
Outright wins: Toronto 299 - Miami 670 (Miami 69.1%)
ATS wins: Toronto 438 - Miami 537 (Miami 55.1%)
O/U: Over 727 - Under 247 (Over 74.6%)

LA Lakers @ Chicago (9.5) 194
Average Score: LA Lakers 100 - Chicago 89 (Sim line: LA Lakers -11, 189)
Outright wins: LA Lakers 780 - Chicago 199 (LA Lakers 79.7%)
ATS wins: LA Lakers 542 - Chicago 458 (LA Lakers 54.2%)
O/U: Over 368 - Under 605 (Under 62.2%)

Detroit @ Houston (2) 191
Average Score: Detroit 92 - Houston 99 (Sim line: Houston -7, 191)
Outright wins: Detroit 293 - Houston 681 (Houston 69.9%)
ATS wins: Detroit 254 - Houston 725 (Houston 74.1%)
O/U: Over 469 - Under 507 (Under 51.9%)

San Antonio @ Phoenix (-3) 210.5
Average Score: San Antonio 108 - Phoenix 104 (Sim line: San Antonio -4, 212)
Outright wins: San Antonio 597 - Phoenix 379 (San Antonio 61.2%)
ATS wins: San Antonio 673 - Phoenix 306 (San Antonio 68.7%)
O/U: Over 551 - Under 449 (Over 55.1%)

Sacramento @ Portland (-7) 199
Average Score: Sacramento 93 - Portland 107 (Sim line: Portland -14, 200)
Outright wins: Sacramento 166 - Portland 805 (Portland 82.9%)
ATS wins: Sacramento 316 - Portland 664 (Portland 67.8%)
O/U: Over 516 - Under 456 (Over 53.1%)

(7 games)
-------------------

Side plays:
Charlotte (-5)
LA Lakers (-9.5)
San Antonio (+3)
Portland (-7)

O/U plays:
New York/Charlotte Under 197.5
LA Lakers/Chicago Under 194
San Antonio/Phoenix Over 210.5

(7 plays)
--------------------

i haven't gotten a line for 3 games, so i just ran simulations for lines i thought would be close somewhat close.. i will rerun those games when the lines come out at about 11 a.m.

GL

[Chillarn]

Hey Busta why is there such a major difference on yours and Tgoats simulation on the total for yesterdays GSW/PHI game?
Tgoat had 186 and you had 224 thats 38 points, thats a lot.

[mantorras77]

Hey Busta......what's your record on Sides vs Totals cause it seems that you're hitting the Totals much better than the sides?

[benjy]

just noticed something of interest regarding the simulation win percentage vs. actual game win percentage...

although in the beginning (the first 2-3 days), the higher % plays in simulations were not winning any more often than the lower % plays.. it seems that they are beginning to show some very promising numbers...

i only checked this over the last 4-5 days or so, but i think the simulations that have a win % of over 70% are 9-3 (75%).

i want to keep following this and see if there is a correlation between my win % and actual win %..

anyway, plays should be up within the hour..

This seems to be another vote of confidence in your system. Though a very small sample this is exactly what you would expect if the simulations are accurate (i.e. using 75% as a proxy for >70%, W=12*(0.75), L=12*(0.25), or 9-3).

It would be interesting not just to investigate the win rates at different win% but also to probability weight them (for each game called multiply by win% and sum them all up) and see how it compares to your win record. Might be interesting too to examine all the games not called because the prediction was too close and see if they end up around 50%.

Great stuff. BOL

[bustabook]

chillarn.. i assume goat goes about getting his results in a very different way than i do. i honestly have no idea about any of the details of his methods, but i do know that i respect his model very much and when we differ (especially by that much) i dont really like it..

as it goes, on that game my prediction was closer than his.. but there have been many others where he was correct as opposed to me.

thanks for the interest, talk to you later on..

[bustabook]

mantorras.. i haven't checked that lately but later on tonight if i get some time, i will check it... or you can feel free to check it and help me (and you) out.

either way, it is a very good question and i would like to see the answer as much as you.

thanks and GL

[bustabook]

It would be interesting not just to investigate the win rates at different win% but also to probability weight them (for each game called multiply by win% and sum them all up) and see how it compares to your win record. Might be interesting too to examine all the games not called because the prediction was too close and see if they end up around 50%.

that is a damn good idea benjy... hopefully there is a correlation between my sim win% and actual win% (and hopefully not a reverse correlation LOL). if there is, that would obviously be hugely beneficial in gaining profit by adding units to plays above certain percentages. i was of this opinion early on in the thread but scrapped the idea when a couple of my bigger unit plays lost.. as it is beginning to look, i may have scrapped it too soon.

as you said, however, i still have a small sample size.. so i don't know if it will prove anything to go back, even to the beginning, and test the percentages. if i do go back and look, i will omit the first 2 or 3 days because that is when i tweaked the formula to where it stands today.

TYVM benjy.. BOL

[SpreadSniper]

Good call on OKC +10.5 yesterday Busta.

BOL today!