CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[texhooper]

orlando will steal a game in l.a., though...this will be a really fun series to watch. i think (and i thought this well before tonight) that the lakers would have their way with the cavs, despite the public wanting to see the kobe/lebron matchup, but orlando would give us a much better series as fans of the game. points thrown in their direction on either floor should not be taken lightly--they know how to beat the lakers here or there. i'm jumping on the magic train early...will not be late to the station this time around. i will ride the magic until the lakers prove me otherwise. they have been pretty good at staying true to regular season trends thus far in the playoffs, so i'm going to stay true to them.

i know you're a lakers fan, kid, so i wish your team luck...but not too much in game one haha

[suicidekings]

Man that push on the 193TOTAL was a fcuking joke. could have won back some money. Oh well. If I wasnt betting baseball, and winning luckily at it, I would be back to what I came into the game with on FEB 10.

CK, DEX, Wang the finals looks like a fairly predictable series to cap. Lakers have more athletes, deeper bench then the Cavs. Should be a good, but short series. As usual I will take care of the Totals, yall send me some side/ML winners. GL fellas. ON to tomorrow, or June 4.

Better than my Under 192.5... Frustrating...

[wangichu]

in game 5 you played orlando? i dont even recall you making a public play on game 5....

my team = lakers... that was the game i was refering to, i played cavs 1st half game 5, instead of the -7 i leaned on early... i ran myself into the ground late. Fell out of cycle this round and just lost stride. I'm already ready for next years playoffs. Oh well... gotta see what the finals are like, maybe i can catch a beat on this series like i had on the magic/celtics.

[wangichu]

I say Lakers take the series in six games. Remember, the Finals format is 2-3-2 so I think that LA steals a game in Orlando and then closes it out at home.

too many people are on the lakers, which is bad news for them, as if they didn't already have matchup problems. Magic steal game 1 and from there, i'm scared to speculate. I just hope the public has this series right.

[JustFlipACoin]

Keep up the great work Wang and CK!! Wang I made a small fortune off your plays from the boston/orland series. I think you called every game right! Good work,

[suicidekings]

too many people are on the lakers, which is bad news for them, as if they didn't already have matchup problems. Magic steal game 1 and from there, i'm scared to speculate. I just hope the public has this series right.

I feel like the Magic will receive little respect in this series despite going 2-0 against the Lakers this season. The Magic are a team that raises their game when facing better teams. I would not be surprised at all to see them take one of the first two, and you know the Lakers will be heavily favoured by the public in the first game.

[HoulihansTX]

The rarity it is that the Bookies have a weak initial read on matchups. I feel they have poorly set the TOTAL for Game1. 206...you have to be kidding me. Unlike most teams the Lakers save their best defensive effort for the road, and try to out gun you at home. Orlando has an Underrated team, and offensively they are a juggernaut. As long as Phil Jackson makes the boneheaded mistake of playing Derek Fisher extended minutes, Lakers will be at a speed disadvantage. Plus RASHARD LEWIS fcuks up the Lakers starting lineup. Will Pau Gasoft be able to stay with Lewisi on perimeter pick n' pop plays?....NO. Expect a high scoring game 206OVER.

[lakerboy]

The rarity it is that the Bookies have a weak initial read on matchups. I feel they have poorly set the TOTAL for Game1. 206...you have to be kidding me. Unlike most teams the Lakers save their best defensive effort for the road, and try to out gun you at home. Orlando has an Underrated team, and offensively they are a juggernaut. As long as Phil Jackson makes the boneheaded mistake of playing Derek Fisher extended minutes, Lakers will be at a speed disadvantage. Plus RASHARD LEWIS fcuks up the Lakers starting lineup. Will Pau Gasoft be able to stay with Lewisi on perimeter pick n' pop plays?....NO. Expect a high scoring game 206OVER.

agreed i thought the line would be set around 211. the books might be thinking that the players maybe a little rusty after the layoff and a low scoring first half- just a thought

[HoulihansTX]

agreed i thought the line would be set around 211. the books might be thinking that the players maybe a little rusty after the layoff and a low scoring first half- just a thought

And a that was something that didn't cross my mind. But I still think the adversity that Orlando has faced these Playoffs makes me think any notions of rust or nervousness should be ignored.

[Vreston]

These last two series ate away at everything I had built up. And they didn't do it in one game. I played pretty conservatively but kept losing. Everything just clicked before them. Since the Lakers-Nuggets and Cavs-Magic everything went out of sync. Almost everything I played lost and everything I wanted to play but didn't kept winning. Baseball didn't help either. I don't know how the rest of you did, but I hope I can turn it around in the finals or the WNBA.

[Jerry Seinfeld]

What makes this series interesting is how much different the teams are now compared to before. What sucks about this series is it does not start for a few days

[HoulihansTX]

Fellas I'm changing my stance to 206Under. The line seems like its begging us to play the Over, and much like the 76ers the lakers, if Phil decides to actually give an effort to coaching, have some favorable lineups they can put on the court to matchup well with Orlando. Sorry for the sudden change, but i have a strong feeling about this. 206Under final answer

[cocknocker]

Because of Orlando's 2-0 record against the Lakers this season, we get the Lakers at a discounted number. The Lakers faced Orlando in the back end of a east coast back to back the first time, flying from Los Angeles to Miami for a game and then to Orlando. Bad spot for any team or even a traveling insurance salesman. Orlando meanwhile was in the middle of a 4 game homestand with a day's rest. With the Lakers only losing by 3 in that contest, I am not giving the Magic too much credit for that win over a tired Lakers squad while they were chilling at home AND with a days rest.

The second time the Magic beat the Lakers they played the Kings on 1/13 and played the Lakers on 1/16/09. In other words once again they were rested for two days. Meanwhile the Lakers had the Orlando game sandwiched in between the Cavs and Spurs (a PC Play that lost by a point), which isn't exactly a cream puff schedule. The Lakers have the full attention pointed at the Magic, with no intervention.

The Magic are just up against a tall order. The Lakers are returning to the finals for a reason. They are a very strong team with serious depth and a mobile center who can make Howard play on both ends unlike Ziggy. The Lakers also have plenty of playoff experience too, and will also have hands down the best player on the court every night. Lakers take game 1 and set the tone, showing Orlando that those wins that they had are meaningless at this point, and were gained in difficult positions for the Lakers to get the cover.

Lakers-3 with a 3 point buy Game 1

[cocknocker]

Why is this thread still around? The contest was over a long time ago...I thought that by now I would have had to start a new playoff thread

[pho3nix32]

nice writeup CK! lakers game 1!

[Dexter]

Game 1:

magic +6 (3x) - orlando was 2-0 vs the lakers this season including a 6 point win in la. while i think the lakers win the series, let me see them cover a number vs the 08-09 magic. a lot of us made this mistake in the last series. i'll take the generous amount of points. this line likely comes down to 5 by thur.

[cocknocker]

Those were skewed covers as I pointed out, Dex. The Lakers were in bad positions in both, meanwhile the Magic were rested on both occasions, and the Lakers were not. It's just that simple. Put these two team son the court at the same time with identical rest and the Lakers will beat them in 6 games, starting with game 1. The question is not who is going to guard Rashard. The question is who is going to guard a fresh Kobe. The Lakers have more LIVE (not like cement shoes Ziggy)big bodies than the Cavs do.

[suicidekings]

Those were skewed covers as I pointed out, Dex. The Lakers were in bad positions in both, meanwhile the Magic were rested on both occasions, and the Lakers were not. It's just that simple. Put these two team son the court at the same time with identical rest and the Lakers will beat them in 6 games, starting with game 1. The question is not who is going to guard Rashard. The question is who is going to guard a fresh Kobe. The Lakers have more LIVE (not like cement shoes Ziggy)big bodies than the Cavs do.

The same question was raised as to how they would handle Lebron James. Lebron pretty much had his way with the Magic in every game (except Game 6). The Magic are good defensively, and have been shooting very well at the other end on the mid & long range shots, and Howard has generally been playing very well in the paint. I acknowledge that Kobe has a far superior team around him to what Lebron has in the Cavs, but they're going up against a very solid defensive team that plays also very well on the road.. So maybe Kobe scores 40 points a game, but beyond that, I feel like the matchup is much closer than a lot of people think.

No one expected the Magic to be here at all, so the pressure is on the Lakers to take the series from them. I have to roll with the Magic again in this situation, as I expect the solid play to continue. Maybe they won't win the series, but have a solid shot in Game 1

[melincrea]

The bet of the night tomorrow is Lakers -3.5 1st half.

[The_Kid]

i know you're a lakers fan, kid, so i wish your team luck...but not too much in game one haha

A 4-5 point win is good enough for me. We're both winners then.

I think LA matches up better with Orlando. Ariza will guard Turkoglu and Odom can match up with Lewis. Ariza can also guard Lewis as they have a similar build and maybe Brown can play Turkoglu, although Hedo would obviously have a height advantage. Howard will definitely get his and there is no denying that. If I were Phil Jackson, I'd let Howard score 50 and just stay home on the shooters. Howard will not beat the Lakers singlehandedly. Mbenga should get some minutes just to hack Howard and that's fine too. This should definitely be a great series to watch.

[texhooper]

Meanwhile the Lakers had the Orlando game sandwiched in between the Cavs and Spurs (a PC Play that lost by a point), which isn't exactly a cream puff schedule.

that was a pivotal pc play. forgive me, ck, but your statement isn't exactly accurate, as the magic beat the spurs straight up by 7 as three point underdogs when the play was spurs -3. regardless, you mentioning that has sparked a lot of thoughts in my head regarding the similarity of the behavior of some posters during that time and some posters behavior now. that play separated a lot of the current haters from the current crew. i know i lost way more than i needed to on that one, but that was my fault. i'm pretty sure we lost devildog on that one, and maybe even smacky, and possibly khaliagent. i can't remember. these people deserve to be gone.

so, gentlemen, ck says lakers -3. wang and dex (and i'll include myself even though it doesn't matter) side with the magic + the 6. for this one, why don't we make our own financial choices, being the "master cappers" that we are, and own up to our own monetary decisions. and if you choose to tail one of these fine gentlemen i have mentioned, keep your comments to yourself win, lose, or draw, unless you mention it beforehand AND you don't talk shit afterwards. it's only right, and we have got to keep this thread clean.

thank you, drive thru.

[tsn101]

I take those regular season victories more to heart because, well, to put it bluntly the Lakers are soft. They play the same way as they do in the regular season.

Orlando, however, has grown over the last couple of rounds. Having faced two hard nosed defensive teams in Boston and Cleveland, I expect them to play any remaining team well. They play better defense then the Lakers and know how to score just as good as them, hard not to like Orlando at +6, except for maybe the inexperience part.

If Yao Ming could 19 points and 14 rebounds while sustaining a hairline fracture injury, I cant wait to see what Dwight will do with all the confidence from just beating Lebron and co.

Should be a great series, good luck to everyone.

[cocknocker]

The same question was raised as to how they would handle Lebron James. Lebron pretty much had his way with the Magic in every game (except Game 6). The Magic are good defensively, and have been shooting very well at the other end on the mid & long range shots, and Howard has generally been playing very well in the paint. I acknowledge that Kobe has a far superior team around him to what Lebron has in the Cavs, but they're going up against a very solid defensive team that plays also very well on the road.. So maybe Kobe scores 40 points a game, but beyond that, I feel like the matchup is much closer than a lot of people think.

No one expected the Magic to be here at all, so the pressure is on the Lakers to take the series from them. I have to roll with the Magic again in this situation, as I expect the solid play to continue. Maybe they won't win the series, but have a solid shot in Game 1

First of all LeBron may have gotten the MVP Trphy, but he is not a better player than Kobe to begin with. Cleveland doesn't have the bench that the Lakers have nor the talent around their star that the Lakers have. The Lakers talent cannot be quetioned. They are in the Finals for the 2nd straight year, not Orlando. Orlando was hot playing against an eastern team for a series. Not no more. When the runner up makes it back they kick in the door the second time. The truth is, Orlando is a speed bump. Lakers in 6.

[spal2811]

First of all LeBron may have gotten the MVP Trphy, but he is not a better player than Kobe to begin with. Cleveland doesn't have the bench that the Lakers have nor the talent around their star that the Lakers have. The Lakers talent cannot be quetioned. They are in the Finals for the 2nd straight year, not Orlando. Orlando was hot playing against an eastern team for a series. Not no more. When the runner up makes it back they kick in the door the second time. The truth is, Orlando is a speed bump. Lakers in 6.

since 1980, when the runner up has made it back to the finals their record is 4-3. not saying that i disagree with the lakers winning it all but i do see orlando as a bit more than a speed bump.

[BL]

So, ck. If you like LA for game1 the first half could be the perfect play:
Lakers won every 1st Half SU in the reglar season in the last 5 games even loosing 3 of this games.
Well, -3,5 is a quite high number if you want to play lakers -3 FT. But if you see the Lakers winning this game a 1st half cover seems like a solid bet

[Jerry Seinfeld]

Only thing that concerns me about this game is the fact that Orlando is 1-4 against the spread on 3 days or more rest while LAL is 6-2. However Orlando's only cover came in the playoffs (game one Celtics) and the Lakers most recent loss ATS was game one against the Nuggets.

Also just noticed that the Lakers are 3-1 against teams on 3 days rest while playing with three days rest (4-0 against the spread), while Orlando is 0-3 (both SU and ATS) in a similar situation.

Lakers have averaged 105 a game on 3+ days rest while Orlando has averaged 93 (but those were against Boston, Charlotte, and the 76ers). LAL gave up an average of 92.2 points a game on 3 days rest.

Still Orlando +6 looks pretty good (I am starting to see it at +6.5), but the total is starting to look less and less appetizing. I went from wanting to bet over 206 to thinking about going under at 208 or better

[coolmil]

First of all LeBron may have gotten the MVP Trphy, but he is not a better player than Kobe to begin with. Cleveland doesn't have the bench that the Lakers have nor the talent around their star that the Lakers have. The Lakers talent cannot be quetioned. They are in the Finals for the 2nd straight year, not Orlando. Orlando was hot playing against an eastern team for a series. Not no more. When the runner up makes it back they kick in the door the second time. The truth is, Orlando is a speed bump. Lakers in 6.

CK, glad to see you back. We need you in Baseball.

[Ludovike]

So, ck. If you like LA for game1 the first half could be the perfect play:
Lakers won every 1st Half SU in the reglar season in the last 5 games even loosing 3 of this games.

what kind of a senseless statistic is this?
why should it matter how they played the first half of their last 5 games in the regular season?

[BL]

I should have wrote "Lakers won every 1st Half SU in the last 5 games AGAINST ORLANDO.
Lakers is the better 1st Half team. That's a fact

[HoulihansTX]

Game 1:

magic +6 (3x) - orlando was 2-0 vs the lakers this season including a 6 point win in la. while i think the lakers win the series, let me see them cover a number vs the 08-09 magic. a lot of us made this mistake in the last series. i'll take the generous amount of points. this line likely comes down to 5 by thur.

I've got to piggy back this play, due to the fact that even though Kobe maybe the best player on the court. Having a dominate center as your best player is much more helpful. Dwight Howard, just in essence from his position, helps his team in more ways than Kobe can. Rebounds, blocks, kick out assists, interior intimidation, getting people in foul trouble, shooting the most foul shots and hitting them consistently, and most importantly HIGH PERCENTAGE SHOTS just from positioning.

I still think The Lakers lack chemistry due to Kobe's arrogance during games. Openly yelling at teammates while walking to the sidelines for timeouts, dominating the ball for most of the shot clock only to realize that he is being guarded well then passing it to teammates that are not expecting it with ticks left on the shot clock, plus Kobe never humbling himself by taking blame for any downfalls during a game or overall poor performances.

Trust me Kobe's is the best left in the playoffs. But I dont expect for Kobe to take this series the way he appproached Game 6 vs. the Nuggets; unselfish, letting the offense run through Pau Gasol, and waiting until he is no longer being double teamed to take shots.

I think these game will be close, and between Jackson playing a washed-up Fisher extended minutes, and kobe still feeling he has to prove that he is the best in the league. This series will go on longer than expected, and we will change our initial perception that Orlando is the inferior team. Keep in mind that Orlando doesn't let any one teammate dominate the ball, so the opponent can't focus on taking the ball out of one persons hand. But rather has to be ready for multiple offensive weapons every possession.

[cocknocker]

Close? Whatever. The Lakers will win game 1 by 12 points. wang, I am very surprised at you. You are going to tell me that you're going to go against a team with a record over .700 (Lakers) playing with double revenge against another over .700 (Magic) at home. Maybe I am missing something here. You're losing your swag in the name of being cute. Once the Lakers win game 1 by double digits, then you will see what I am talking about.

I hav elaready pointed out how Orlando caught the Lakers at bad times for the Golden Ones to get the cover. But here's an interesting tidbit:

If Orlando is so hot and so potent since they have beat Cleveland, then please explain to me why the line for this game is higher than the lst time that these two teams met in Tinsletown.? The last time they met in LA the line was 4.5 for the Lakers. This time it started at 6 and has now gone to 6.5. Like I said the Magic caught the Lakers at bad times for the Lakers to get a cover. In my opinion, I capped the game out to Lakers winning by 12 once I factored in the double revenge and home court. Before I added those adjustments I had the Lakers winning by 8 anyway. Phil has all of those rings for a reason. He is the best coach in the game bar none. I am sure that you know that. You don't think that he can make adjustments when he has the best player in the NBA on his squad? Van Gundy's team had more talent than Cleveland, but let's face it, because of that talent they didn't have to play smart. They certainly will have to play much smarter in this round to have a chance to pick up even two wins in this series.

I really am surprised at you wang. You really think that there is a team out there that can beat the Lakers 3 straight times, with 2 of the wins coming on their court. And believe me the media has made everyone including all of the Lakers and their fans aware that Orlando has beaten them twice this year already.

I am applying the Kelly factoring and taking the team that I think will win. Anyone who takes Orlando in game 1 had better believe that they will win straight up or else you are giving your money away.

[SexyMit]

It has been going on the last 10 yrs. A team that sweeps the regular season also wins the series in the playoffs. That would be Orlando since they swept the regular season, I like the Lakers but Clevland was same scenerio. Orlando swept regular season against Clevland and then they beat them in the playoffs. So maybe it will be the same scenerio!

[SexyMit]

CK I'm not sure where you are seeing -6.5 cause I sure don't see any. Would you please point that out where your getting this from. Cause all I see are 6's

[Bob Roberts]

If Orlando is so hot and so potent since they have beat Cleveland, then please explain to me why the line for this game is higher than the lst time that these two teams met in Tinsletown.? The last time they met in LA the line was 4.5 for the Lakers. This time it started at 6 and has now gone to 6.5. Like I said the Magic caught the Lakers at bad times for the Lakers to get a cover. In my opinion, I capped the game out to Lakers winning by 12 once I factored in the double revenge and home court. Before I added those adjustments I had the Lakers winning by 8 anyway. Phil has all of those rings for a reason. He is the best coach in the game bar none. I am sure that you know that. You don't think that he can make adjustments when he has the best player in the NBA on his squad? Van Gundy's team had more talent than Cleveland, but let's face it, because of that talent they didn't have to play smart. They certainly will have to play much smarter in this round to have a chance to pick up even two wins in this series....

Absolutely right, except his adjustments will come 4 or 5 games into the series, BETWEEN GAMES, not during games......before then the Zen Master will let the players play the game and flounder if they flounder.....

In the end, the games will be decided by role players hitting their open shots...... and role players tend to shoot better at home..... lakers pull it out it 6 or 7......

Before game 5, value is on Magic, IMHO..... Game 1 is a little unpredictable.... CK has some good points, I will sit it out and win or lose, comeback with the Magic in games 2, 3 and 4......

[cocknocker]

CK I'm not sure where you are seeing -6.5 cause I sure don't see any. Would you please point that out where your getting this from. Cause all I see are 6's

Las Vegas lines at Startosphere and Mirage are at 6.5. They have been teetering between 6 and 6.5, which means that a move is coming. it takes a little while for lines to trickle down from the Desert