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wow dramatic move on my book spurs went from -11.5 to -13......
ok so this is how i project a line for a home favorite that is -10 or more in method #2 (both method #1 and #2 have to agree for me to bet on a game) this helps factor in a bad team on a good streak or a good team on a bad streak as well. (ex being the Spurs 66% winning but only 5-5 in their last 10)
take the 3 digit decimal expression (ex. Cavs .822) and drop the decimal. calculate 70% of that number. then calculate 30% of the team's last 10 games (example a team that was 6-4 would be 600x.3=180)
add the 2 numbers together and there is your adjusted winning percentage. do this for both teams.
then subtract the number for the road underdog formula result from the home favorite formula result. divide this number by 23. then add 2.15 to that for home court advantage. (home court is more heavily weighted in method #1 with a sliding scale coefficient).
Here is the example of the nuggets/knicks game.
Nuggets .649 and 8-2 in their last 10 (80%)
Knicks .392 and 2-8 in their last 10 (20%)
Nuggets 649x.7=454.3 80%=800x.3=240. 454.3+240=694.3
Knicks 392x.7=274.4 20%=200x.3=60 274.4+60=334.4
694.3-334.4=359.9 divide that by 23 =15.6478 add 2.15 for home court =17.7978
round that to 17.8 and that is the line projection for method #2.
NOTE AND BIG DISCLAIMER this is only a small portion of the whole calculation for method #2 and the result of this formula gets averaged with the result of 3 other formulas and usually produces a result much lower than the projected line. the answer for the total result of method #2 is 11.876.
and now back to your scheduled programming......Comment -
I am dropping the Mavs from my playbook for the day. The spread is too inflated for me to play themComment -
I actually like the T-Wolves in that game now, but I will wait and see what happens with the spread.Comment -
Anyone know what ever happened to the Weather Report Guy? I think he must have blown his wad again...Poor Smacky...What a waste....Comment -
CHI Under 216.
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buzz killington strikes again! maybe we should sit and comment on etchings. (please tell me someone else watches family guy)Comment -
interesting stuff solobass... did you ever do something like a whole guide for all the methods ?
thx
GLComment -
solobass,
I paid the so-calld cockknockerkilla a visit on his SBR page, and let him know that there is only one CK, solo. The hating continues, and guys will continue to push the boulder uphill. I expect that any day now this idiot will come onto the threads and pose some corny ass challenge as if he has earned the right to do so. This also-ran signed up yesterday so I think th stupidity will start to jump off any moment now, lol!Comment -
I don't understand the need to challenge others here, unless it's for fun. The fact of the matter is there are a lot of talented folks here who try to help us make money, CK in particular. Can someone's life be that empty that they need to issue a "challenge" to prove their worth to society? Sad.
I welcome anyone who contributes valuable information so I can make money. I have no interest in challenging them to a duel of bets to prove that I'm better than they are.Comment -
ha, indeed! we should take bets on who is behind the fallacious moniker!
peter19 i have thought about this for sure, but need some more time under my belt. it is time consuming but is a lot of fun for me. way better than my old 9-5 that is for sure. what sucks is after all that work sometimes still going 1-3 on the day.Comment -
ck
whats styles playing today ?
thx
GLComment -
peterpan19,
She's playing Denver only tonight. She is playing different teams now.Comment -
solobass
I mean I am very interested in it too (I think you probably use an excel sheet, right ?)... e.g. why do you divide it by 23, why is homecourt 2.15 ... do you also have formula that takes average win/loss margins of the last 10 games into account ?
thx
GL (and yeah 1-3 after all the math sucks... but some things just cant be reduced to only numbers (like in that tv series))
ck
thx... the project of following only 2 teams didnt work out too well or why is she now playing other teams ?Comment -
ok early games are booked, no turning back:
Dal -7.5 (.5 buy)
Ind -2 (I like that one a lot)
Char +6 (.5 buy)
GLComment -
peterpan19 i have a background in molecular biology that helps with the math. also i use a program called jump. check it out here
it is the weapons grade version of excel. it helps me do bivariate distributions and many other math goodies much more quickly.Comment -
It's her time of the year. She is just ready to start wagering on the entire league now. I think that she was pissed off about the firing of Reggie Theus, lol! She thinks that he is handsome as a button! But in all actuality she has to change her style now because the seasn is coming to a close and obviously neither of those two teams may make the playoffs...Comment -
Solobass: As someone that enjoys the math/stats side of capping games, I definitely appreciate the insight into how you go about it. How long does each game take you to process? And how much of the process is automated in excel/whatever?
Or we could discuss the story of how cornmeal came to be... *crickets*
Edit: Ah, my question was already answered. Weapons grade Excel.. Interesting!Comment -
I am not smart enough to figure out the mathematical approach to wagering! I am more into situational wagering. At this time of the year spreads are inflated, and waering on basketball i much harder than in the beginning of the year. It kind of reminds me of the inflated lines that linemakers use for teams at the end of the year i baseball, wit the thought process being that the team that is favored by -235 needs the game more than he opposition. Well we already know that the opposite usually happens with those types of situations. It is very important to know the good doggies, and play them. The good doggies shatter the math. Watch what the T-Wolves do to teams down the stretch when handed 14 points or some old ridiculous spread like that...Comment -
Solo, I am also interested in your work. Do you have plays for today or did I just miss them in the thread somewhere?peterpan19 i have a background in molecular biology that helps with the math. also i use a program called jump. check it out here
it is the weapons grade version of excel. it helps me do bivariate distributions and many other math goodies much more quickly.
So far, I'm rolling with:
Pistons +9.5 (hope I don't regret not buying the hook)
Notre Dame -4Comment -
solobass
ok thx... I will check it out... could be helpful for me too, since I am an engineer
ck
hey... the bobcats might have a slight chance ... that said I like them tonight against the Lakers,
fav play of the day is Ind -2...
GLComment -
suicidekings how jump helps me is by helping me manage data. in different parts of my capping, i use full year data, rolling 12 week data, rolling 4 week data, and last 10 game data. right now it takes me about 30-45 mins per game, sometimes longer if i am slow or undercaffeinated! really though, if you broke it down what i make per hour you would fall out of your chair. that to me is the ultimate bottom line. people's winning %, units won, all can be skewed to make someone look like a better capper than what they really are. for example CK does really well on his big plays, so who cares if you lose a few smaller games? % increase of your bankroll on a daily basis is the only metric for success.Comment -
amen to that brother like the knicks and bucks last night! lines are getting more and more shady that is why i am swinging for the fences for a few more days and then break for a few days. baseball is upon us and you all need to check CK's thread over there choc full of gems already! i will definitely return to nba for the playoffs though.Comment -
I love Baylor tonight over SDSComment -
ha, well the way i see it is everyone has their own edge. for example dex and i cap totally different and it cracks me up when we come up with 3 or 4 plays identical on a day. nobody can doubt CK he has been doing this for years. just remember this, if you are going to be successful there are no free lunches. the books employ a lot of people and a lot of software to beat you. what is your edge and method for beating the overwhelming odds? there are so many answers to that question and everyone must find that for themselves.Comment -
Hey Solo......I love the whole mathematical approach as well.....unfortunately (like you mention) it can be really time-consuming. My Bling Bling system had some pretty strong "mathematical/probability-based" links to it. I'm okay with putting that kind of time into something if the winning percentage justifies it (and for awhile that system DID justify it), but once my system reached the 15-15 mark I just couldn't justify it any longer.
Here's something funny....I've argued this point (to no avail) with several professional mathematicians (similar to Columbus arguing that the world was round while everybody else said it was flat). I understand the whole concept behind "independent" and "dependent" probability results, etc......BUT my point is this (and my system is kind of based on this belief).....IF YOU FLIP A COIN 24 TIMES (assuming it's a fair coin) AND IT HITS HEADS ALL 24 TIMES, YOU CAN NOT TELL ME THAT THERE IS ONLY A 50% CHANCE THAT IT HITS TAILS THE NEXT TIME. I think there is too DRASTIC of a difference between saying that there is X% chance of a coin being flipped 25 times and having a Heads result every single time and just a 50% chance that it's going to land on Tails after 24 successive times of landing on Heads. I know the laws of math dictate otherwise, but I just wish somebody could think out of the box enough to understand what I'm saying. You even used to have a footnote under your posts saying that "all streaks are just as likely to end as continue......" or something like that.
CAN I GET A BIG CRICKET CHIRP! ......chirp......chirp.Comment -
I cannot stress enough how awful the Bulls are on the road. Letting woeful teams like Washington and Toronto play to their strengths and not attempting to do a thing about it is not playoff-caliber ball. Come to think of it, the only team worse than them in this respect is the Pacers.
I'm sure I was the only person watching the match between the Bulls and Wizards last week, but it was a frenetic shoot-around of the lowest standard. The game today should be played at the same poor quality of that game, but at an even quicker clip. The over being set at 215 looks like Vegas playing it safe, but I'd still consider taking it.
Dallas look prime for a rebound game, while Cleveland and New Orleans look like vulnerable favorites. Cleveland have to lose sometime before the playoffs, and they might run into a Detroit steam train on the wrong day. Rasheed has no respect for LeBron, or any of the Cavs. I see the Pistons giving everything they got tonite.Comment -
10 Points Teaser for today:
Cleveland Cavaliers Pick
Dallas Mavericks +2
Denver Nuggets -2
Sacramento Kings +16½Comment -
haha funny lemon! i hear you on dependent probability there has been considerable debate on that with my friends. and my quote was "trends are just as likely to end as they are to continue" and that applies to capping like "team X is 5-1 in this spot". what is more likely, 6-1 or 5-2? independent probability indeed!Comment -
also, blazers are on upset alert. there is a certain point in my calculations where if i get negative numbers the bigger the negative number the greater probability for upset. i am watching the line, but looks like i will be on the
Jazz +6
my other booked play is
Lakers -5.5 i know i know...i hate plays like this because i am no sheep following the herd or looking for a free lunch! the formula is the formula though........Comment -
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Plays for today
Pistons +10
Blazers - 6
Bobcats +6
BOL to everyone elseComment
