Leans for Tuesday 4/1/09

[texhooper]

ck, i feel that as well. when the cavs hosted the pistons a month ago the spread was about the same, and that was when it would have taken an act of god to get a self-respecting bettor to take the pistons. this number seems a shade inflated.

how about that slick ass avatar? tex hooper is here now.

[playazzz2g]

i got 177 as the o/u for the cavs game..i see the cavs putting up at least in 90s is the under the play here??

[nitetrain]

im just going to keep the bAll rolling after a 3-1 day....just capping 1 game ....2 bets....and the winner is.....


under det/cle.....



since 6/2/07 ..the last eight times these two have met ,the favorite has covered su and ats wise at a remarkable 8-0 clip...since 11/25/07 ..the total has went under the number 7-0...yet after sum serious handicapping and a few tokes of that hydroponic...all signs started pointing to the over which is now set to 177.5 ......my reasons at first for pulling for the over was that detroit is far from the defensive minded championship caliber team of the old days....shit if u take a look at the defensive catergories ..both teams gives up a total of 186 overall....home/away they give up 183....last 5 games they avg 183....both teams on 1 day rest avg up to 185 defensively....the last 5 games on the road detroit has given up 100,the last 5 games at home cleveland has given up 87 for a total of 187....so one would have to say that over is the play right? Wrong....here is why the under is the play....


earlier this year in detroit,the total was set at 190 which went under the number...so then in the second game in detroit ,the oddsmakers brought the total down further to 179.5 which went under the number again...so when they played their 3rd game in cleveland the total was set at 180.5 ,which fell under yet again....which brings us to todays game which is the 4th game of the year where the total has fallen again to 178.5 which was the opening number...but the main shit that has caught my eye ....is that 97% is on the over in this game yet the total has fallen once again to 177.5 right now.thats what u call a reverse line movement...therfore the pick would be to fade the public and take the under....as u know i love buying insurance so the pick will be -

under 179.5 for 2 units ......



oh before i forget the bonus pick is cleveland first qtr..cleveland has the edge offensively (7pts) and defensively(2pts) in the first qtr....not to mention that rasheed wallace is set to return to the starting line up after an 11 day vacation....detroit should come out the gates slower than cleveland while they look 2 find their chemistry and let r.wallace get the dust off his feet...if u wanna take advantage with cleveland then the 1st qtr would be the one 2 do it in.....



2 for 1 pick: Under 179.5(with a 2point buy)....and cle 1st qtr (whatever the number)....now i command u 2 get that money homies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[The_Kid]

It's always about the money whether it be coaches or professional athletes.

[shoebox]

It's always about the money whether it be coaches or professional athletes.

James cough......posey cough

[pho3nix32]

Detroit will get the cover in that one, Pho3nix. They are getting healthy for the stretch run. Rasheed is upgraded to probable for tomorrow. He has been practicing but not playing in games. For once in months Detroit will be at full strength. I think that they have had enough of the losing, and i think that down the stretch they will be a very formidable foe for any team that faces them because of their ability to play good defense when they have their backs against the wall. Of all the teams in the NBA they are one of the only ones that can actually get BETTER for the tail end of the season without having any player transactions. I am a die hard Pistons fan, and I know the pulse of this team. They can cause a lot of havoc in these last few weeks, and even in the playoffs should they get there. The Pistons are also avenging a 21 point loss to the Cavs in February. Interestingly enough, each of the games these two teams have played this year have come when Detroit was NOT at full strength. That is why I took a pass on this one. However, the under looks like an excellent call.

If I wake up in the morning and see that the public is lining up and playing Cleveland for free chicken dinners and are 80% or more on the Cavs, I may make a play for Detroit if there is ANY reverse line movement

thanks for your input CK. i capped this game minus sheed. if sheed plays then no play for me on the sides. the under total sticks though with or without sheed.

[pho3nix32]

The Hornets are a great defensive team and they are known for shutting down weak teams that have poor shot selection. Sacramento fits this criteria and the Hornets will slow the pace a bit on them and make them work for the full shot clock. On offense the Kings lack of a true low post scorer will owrk to their disadvantage and if those jumpers aren't falling they may be in for a full fledge blowout at the hands of the Hornets.

Hornets/Kings under 201

this looks like a juicy play as well. i've noticed that defensive teams really clamp down when they are depleted. the scrubs usually come in and show the coach what they can do. the spurs have done this numerous times already. i believe the hornets will clamp down on the kings since they are offensively challenged without peja, posey, chandler.

[The_Kid]

James cough......posey cough

Posey already has his rings so I guess that's all he's looking for now. Any championship-aspiring team knows how important a guy like him is to their team. He was important to the Heat during their title run and he was definitely important to the Celtics last year.

Hate to say it but I used to like Elton Brand as a player but that changed quickly after what he did. I think he spurned the Clippers AND his ex-buddy, Baron Davis, for $2 more million. I'm actually glad he got hurt (as bad as that sounds). The 76ers are better off without him anyways.

If I'm correct, the Clippers offer was 5 years/$80 million and the 76ers offered 5 years/$82 million. I know Brand grew up in Philly but let's get real. I don't believe one word he said when justifying his decision to leave LA.

[pho3nix32]

Hate to say it but I used to like Elton Brand as a player but that changed quickly after what he did. I think he spurned the Clippers AND his ex-buddy, Baron Davis, for $2 more million. I'm actually glad he got hurt (as bad as that sounds). The 76ers are better off without him anyways.

If I'm correct, the Clippers offer was 5 years/$80 million and the 76ers offered 5 years/$82 million. I know Brand grew up in Philly but let's get real. I don't believe one word he said when justifying his decision to leave LA.

you are saying brand shouldnt have turned his back on the nba's best coach/gm?

[Jimbo42]

Ok boys, Well by now ya'll know my style o cappin'. I wait and lay out and am patient and mostly research for situations when I believe that a team will be changing their momentum whether it be for the better or for the worse in order to stay ahead of the book(actually ahead of the public). I also play a couple of systems that I have come up with. Well boys... I ALWAYS play an above .400 team in their next game after they lose and score less than 75points..

Dallas Mavs - whatever

Also, Dallas team total may be worth a look.....that's on you but I'm on the MAVS!

[Jimbo42]

Fellas you can backtrack that badboy at Vegasinsider... remember ABOVE .400 team after scoring (actually) 75 or less.... I think its like 13-4 or 13-5 this year... I don't know... I been playin it for years...Its an automatic for me

[RoagBettor]

Lakers look good tonight at -5; they were embarrassed at Atlanta and you know Kobe and Phil won't settle for 2 games in a row like that.

[texhooper]

booked philly -3, s.a. -11.5, denver -12, and portland -6.5. definitely booking mavs and cleveland first quarter when they become available. so much chalk...good luck fellas.

[TripleHHH]

(1st Half) -5 Cleveland

(1st Half) -6 San Antonio

(1st Half) -6.5 Denver

(1st Half) Notre Dame ML

Thats mine for today. BOL to Forum

[solobass]

CK and others I like the thoughts on the nuggets. I cashed Knicks yesterday and trust me they will be flat coming out because they were playing from behind all night yesterday. Not likely they cover the double digit spread 2 nights in a row, but i have yet to cap that game.

[Lunakid7]

what do you guys think of

Trailblazers -6.5

Jazz/Blazers over 194

Thunder +11.5

[solobass]

what do you guys think of

Trailblazers -6.5

Jazz/Blazers over 194

Thunder +11.5

blazers overs are never good, they play at the 2nd slowest pace in the NBA next to my pistons.

[peterpan19]

ok guys 2-3 day yesterday... teaser (easy money...??) and over hit (cant believe I hit 2 totals in a row now, maybe I should really look at the totals more from now on...)... NJ (well I knew it but what the hell), Mia (Wade great as usual, but 1 man show...) and to hell with the Jazz ()

anyway here is what I like so far:
Dallas -6 or less
Dallas just owns Min on the raod as they are 5-0 ATS and SU... add in that Min is only 4-12 ATS at home as of late... plus Dallas got embarrassed against the Cavs after a wonderful 1st half...give me Dallas here as they need to win a few more to lock in that final playoff spot...

Char +6 (waiting or buying a half point)
this will be the 6th road game for the Lakers...add in that Char is 7-1 ATS and 5-1 SU overall agains the Lakers.... plus they are 14-4 ATS at home as of late... plus they finally started to play better D as of late and considering they have a great home D and the Lakers struggled a bit on Sunday... give me the home dog in this one... it should be a low scoring game, so give me the home dog here (that said the Under might be a good play too..)

Ind -4 (proj)
has revenge on their minds after the loss a few days ago... add in that they are 4-2 ATS at home vs Chi... add in that Chi is horrible on the road (3-7 ATS and 2-8 SU) and I hope the public will be on Chi in this one... just a typical chi game... play them at home and play against them on the road

Por -6
Por just owns UTA at home as they are 5-0 ATS and SU and I think the trend will continue today... plus Por still has a chance to win the Division and maybe even a chance for the no. 2 seed... and this being a home game for them they want to blow them away... Uta on the other hand is in the same spot here, but they are on b2b nights, and they dont match up very well with Por... projected score should be Utah 90 Por 100

teasers of the day:
Cle -3
Cle over 169
ATL +10

Char Under 201
SA -5
Den -5

Dallas
Por +1
char +13 (lets see about that one)

7 plays today... but I like them all... so lets go 7-0 today

GL

update: line are available Dallas -8 and Ind -1.5 (love that one)

[TripleHHH]

Anybody heard if Kobe is playing tonight ? Listed as probable (illness)

[TripleHHH]

adding:

(1st Half) -4 Dallas -110

[peterpan19]

tripleHHH

I expect Kobe to play tonight

GL

[RoagBettor]

According to ESPN Kobe has a stomach ailment but he's supposed to play.

[solobass]

According to ESPN Kobe has a stomach ailment but he's supposed to play.

espn has obtained a sample from Kobe's last bowel movement and projects that his lack of fiber in his diet costs him during long road trips. an endorsement deal with benefiber is nearly complete and a press conference will be held shortly after noon today.

(sorry i could not pass on that one)

[MJT1212]

what do you guys think of

Trailblazers -6.5

Jazz/Blazers over 194

Thunder +11.5

Thunder=YES

[solobass]

so now a profitable situation has risen. when do you bet on cavs opponent ML? they have won 12 straight and will
lose sometime. looking at their schedule, if they win SU today i will bet their opponent's ML until that cashes.
given the teams they will play (besides @ orlando) they will be huge favorites. they have to rest lebron at some point
they are 5 games up on everyone in the east.

[solobass]

bulls/pacers i am passing on. i have no time for what will probably come down to the last minute of the game. chicago has been on a nice streak lately but still suck nuts on the road, plus the pacers play quite a bit faster than the bulls. grab the popcorn on this one.

[solobass]

wow I must be the buzz killington of the CK Mafia after I post all you hear is crickets and the sound of
people slowly backing away......

[cocknocker]

I have seen all that I need to see. I am taking Detroit+10.5 with a point buy

[TheLemonDropKid]

Ok boys, Well by now ya'll know my style o cappin'. I wait and lay out and am patient and mostly research for situations when I believe that a team will be changing their momentum whether it be for the better or for the worse in order to stay ahead of the book(actually ahead of the public). I also play a couple of systems that I have come up with. Well boys... I ALWAYS play an above .400 team in their next game after they lose and score less than 75points..

Dallas Mavs - whatever

Also, Dallas team total may be worth a look.....that's on you but I'm on the MAVS!

You had me at "hello"............I'm rollin' with you on this one Jimbo....let's crush it tonight.

[TheLemonDropKid]

wow I must be the buzz killington of the CK Mafia after I post all you hear is crickets and the sound of
people slowly backing away......

LOL! No way Solo..........your posts are some of my favs. I get a lot out of what you write.

[solobass]

CK people are looking for a free lunch on that one you are right on the money. I am still crunching the numbers, it takes a long time to do with so many games on the board. regarding the jazz/blazers though, they have the same record, both have won 2 in a row and are both 6-4 in their last 10, kind of creepy. anyone want me to share some math today?

[peterpan19]

ck
just for fun that det one or more on it ?

anyway booked following teasers:
Cle -2.5
SA -5.5
Den -5

ATL +9
LA Under 200
Por +1

also so far I like for the early games:
Char +6
Ind -2
Dallas -7.5

GL

[shoebox]

[quote=solobass;1695781]CK people are looking for a free lunch on that one you are right on the money. I am still crunching the numbers, it takes a long time to do with so many games on the board. regarding the jazz/blazers though, they have the same record, both have won 2 in a row and are both 6-4 in their last 10, kind of creepy. anyone want me to share some math today?[/quote]


share brother share........

[shoebox]

First MLB bet of the season found good value in on game today starts in 30 min

TB RAYS +150/ LINE JUST MOVED

CHERRY POPPED FIRST MLB BET OF THE SEASON GOES TODAY!!!

GL

LEANING NUGGS 1H, CHAR +6

iF NUGGS DONT COVER 1H TAKING THEM 3RD QTR

[The_Kid]

you are saying brand shouldnt have turned his back on the nba's best coach/gm?

That franchise is definitely a mess. A lot of things need to change.

That might have factored into his decision but if the reports are true and he told Davis to come to LA, then why turn back on your initial decision?