NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 84-73-3 - 53.5% (+6.14) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 4-2 (+1.85)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 15-13-1 (+1.60)

2. pip2 - 17-12 (+4.28)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-15 (-6.88)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 13-14 (-2.40)

7. Heart - 5-1 (+3.92)

8. Consigliere - 9-5-1 (+3.65)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!

[Heart]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Posted play on 12/20 at 10:59am
12/20/14 1:05pm Phoenix Suns -6½ -108 vs New York Knicks

SDQL:
AF and p:W and p:streak<=-2 and playoffs=0

English:
Play the away fav coming off a game where they broke a losing streak.

[JMon]

NBA 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12/20/14 - 10:20a CT

Play Jazz OV 192.5 -110

SDQL: p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0 and 8>=line>-6 and wins<38 and 20>op:margin>1 and total<208

English: With a total below 208 and a road fav or no more than 5.5 and a dog of no more than 7.5; between two back to back teams - both off a road win where the oppt won the game by no more than 19.5.

[Consigliere]

NBA 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12/20/14 - 12:12PM ET

Play Trailblazers +5.5 -103

SDQL: A and tA(points) >= 102 and oA(ooints) >= 102 and op:W and points >= 100 and ppoints >= 100 and month in [12 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4]

English: Play the away team who averages over 102 pts for the season playing against an opponent who gives up an average of 102 or more where the opponent is coming of a win and the team scored over 100 its last two games and looks at matchups only in the meat of the season, Nov and May are eliminated. Bit of a tough one to tell if Portland has a big let down after the big triple overtime win in SA. The back-to-back road isn't too much of an issue because the trip is pretty short between those two cities, Overall Portland is a better team so lets grab the points and hope that the let down and tired legs don't play into this as much as the public thinks it will.

[mdunlap3]

NBA 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12/20/14 - 10:20a CT

Play Jazz OV 192.5 -110

SDQL: p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0 and 8>=line>-6 and wins<38 and 20>op:margin>1 and total<208

English: With a total below 208 and a road fav or no more than 5.5 and a dog of no more than 7.5; between two back to back teams - both off a road win where the oppt won the game by no more than 19.5.

Really like this one brother. On with you likely.

[nash13]

I can only repeat please don't sort anything new or touch the formatting of the spreadsheet. I don't know why it is so hard to keep things running.

[JMon]

Really like this one brother. On with you likely.

Let's get it

[Ronald S.]

NBA Best Bet

12/20/14 6:15 PM EST

Utah +4 -108 (vs Charlotte) (5dimes)

AD and ats streak >= 4 and season >= 2012 and 2.5 <= line <= 9.5
SU: 30-42 (-3.36, 41.7%)
ATS: 46-25-1 (2.40, 64.8%) avg line: 5.8
AD and ats streak >= 4 and season >= 2012 and 2.5 <= line <= 9.5 and rest = o:rest
SU: 23-17 (-1.27, 57.5%)
ATS: 30-10-0 (4.47, 75.0%) avg line: 5.8

Play the away team as a 2.5 to 9.5 point underdog and have covered the spread in their last 4 games or more. Trend is even better when both teams are on equal rest. ML is a possibility too but I will just go with the points.

[nash13]

Updated the sheet with queries from last week, would be nice if anyone could check from time to time if everything is up to date and in the right place. We are about to crack 200 queries for NBA. Awesome work everyone.

[Alex Vaile]

NBA 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12/20/14 - 10:20a CT

Play Jazz OV 192.5 -110

SDQL: p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0 and 8>=line>-6 and wins<38 and 20>op:margin>1 and total<208

English: With a total below 208 and a road fav or no more than 5.5 and a dog of no more than 7.5; between two back to back teams - both off a road win where the oppt won the game by no more than 19.5.

That hurt. Thought they'd pull it out when they only needed a basket w over a minute to go. But nope. Line moved 2 pts up too before the game. That damn second quarter.

O well not even close to my niners melting down today. Here's to tomorrow!

[JMon]

That hurt. Thought they'd pull it out when they only needed a basket w over a minute to go. But nope. Line moved 2 pts up too before the game. That damn second quarter.

O well not even close to my niners melting down today. Here's to tomorrow!

ya freakin unreal. The way my plays been going as of late.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 86-75-3 - 53.4% (+5.96) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 2-2 (-.18)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 15-14-1 (+.50)

2. pip2 - 17-12 (+4.28)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-16 (-7.96)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 13-14 (-2.40)

7. Heart - 6-1 (+4.92)

8. Consigliere - 10-5-1 (+4.65)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!

[JMon]

NBA 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12/21/14 - 10:03a CT

Play Min ML +125

SDQL: 3>=line>=-3 and pooints>=105 and ppooints>=105 and opoints+opooints<=165

English: play on a team with a short line after giving up b2b game of 105 or more points against oppt. whom had a combined score of 165 or less. Home dogs should be looked at within this query.

[emceeaye]

possible Raptors 1st quarter ATS...waiting for line

p:M3=1 and (A or D) and -12<=p:margin<=-6 and rest = 0 and WP < o:WP and 5<=line<=17 and [M1 < -line/4]

if line is too large (e.g., <-4) then it might be prohibitive, since the average 1st quarter differential is around -4

[JMon]

Thought this would be active, but Bos total is a bit lower than I like, but something to watch for sure..How teams tend to go under after three straight games of blowing teams out.

A and total > 201 and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W and p:margin >= 15 and pp:margin >= 15 and ppp:margin >= 15 and o:rest>0

[nash13]

please stop the spam

[pip2]

p:M3=1 and (A or D) and -12<=p:margin<=-6 and rest = 0 and WP < o:WP and 5<=line<=17 and [M1 < -line/4]

if line is too large (e.g., <-4) then it might be prohibitive, since the average 1st quarter differential is around -4

at 4.5 I'm tempted to bet the other way...

[Heart]

no best bet for me today.. good luck to you guys!

[dmitean]

A lot of very strong trends collide tonight in Minnesota, both on total and on the line.
Checked the queries, but didn't find anything I liked.

Boston had one pretty strong query, but with all the trades that just happened, not sure how much we can read in to that.

[dmitean]

pvertime>0 and rest=0 and p:W and H
SU:27-24 (2.20, 52.9%)ATS:17-33-1 (-3.71, 34.0%) avg line: -5.9O/U:20-31-0 (-2.41, 39.2%) avg total: 195.3

Good idea to fade a team that won in overtime and plays at home without rest.

P.S. or just plays at home (39% ATS) (if both games are home it drops to 1 - 5 and 16% - but very small sample of course).

[Mako-SBR]

NBA 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12/21/14 - 11:15a PST

Play: BRK (-2) DET

SDQL:
AD and p:HDL and P:HL and P:ats margin<=-9 and P:season=season and 66>=game number>=15 and season>=2006

English:
Fading an away dog that lost as a home dog in its last game, and lost against the team they're now playing at home the last time they met within the season by more than nine points. Game takes place in the meat of the season. Let's get it!!

[Heart]

pvertime>0 and rest=0 and p:W and H
SU:27-24 (2.20, 52.9%)ATS:17-33-1 (-3.71, 34.0%) avg line: -5.9O/U:20-31-0 (-2.41, 39.2%) avg total: 195.3

Good idea to fade a team that won in overtime and plays at home without rest.

P.S. or just plays at home (39% ATS) (if both games are home it drops to 1 - 5 and 16% - but very small sample of course).

This is essentially the same query I've been using for a couple of my best bets plays I've made previously in this thread, just reversed. It's been good to me so far.

SDQL:
opvertime>0 and o:rest=0 and A and playoffs=0

[Ronald S.]

Gonna pass on best bet today. Indiana looked interesting as an away favorite with a terrible win%
AF and game number >= 20 and 23 < WP < 31
ATS: 31-12-3 (2.07, 72.1%) avg line: -2.6

And Sacramento coming off a loss as a home favorite

H and p:HFL and line <= -6.5 and p:line <= -6.5 and season >= 2011
SU: 59-6 (13.25, 90.8%)
ATS: 41-23-1 (3.21, 64.1%) avg line: -10.0

But seen them conflict with some other queries. GL all

[dmitean]

This is essentially the same query I've been using for a couple of my best bets plays I've made previously in this thread, just reversed. It's been good to me so far.

SDQL:
opvertime>0 and o:rest=0 and A and playoffs=0

You're right - just realized that. Just been messing a bit with fatigue queries...

[nash13]

cracked 200 queries. congrats to everyone contributing.

[pip2]

at 4.5 I'm tempted to bet the other way...

All the crappy bets I made today, and I stepped back from this one...

[emceeaye]

All the crappy bets I made today, and I stepped back from this one...

I know, man... I kinda beat myself up over passing on it too, but if you look at the differential after the first quarter, it was a complete outlier comparing it to the average 1st quarter differential in this situation. I'd rather make a no play consistent with what the numbers are telling us, than make a careless wager against the evidence we have available, with a good chance of losing. Even if this time it resulted in a win, in the long run, using the careless approach would translate into negative ROI.

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


12/22/14 7:45am pst Reduced Basketball 514 Golden State Warriors -12 -105* vs Sacramento Kings

SDQL:

playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/points + points in the paint/points > .76 and conference=Western and op:margin > -2

SDQL: English

Since 2007 and excluding playoffs, a western conference team won its previous game, it's opponent has won at least 23% as many games as the team has won, and in its previous game the team scored at least 76% of its point either in the paint or from beyond the arc, and the team's opponent won its last game or at least did not lose by more than 1 point.

[Heart]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Play posted 12/22 @ 12:34pm
12/22/14 8:35pm Atlanta Hawks +4 -103 vs Dallas Mavericks

SDQL:
A and tA(points)>=102 and oA(ooints)>= 102 and op:W and points>=100 and ppoints>=100 and (game number)>15 and playoffs=0

SDQL: English
Play away team averaging more than 102 pts/game that has scored more than 100 points in each of last two games against an opponent who allows on average more than 102 points per game.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Here's one of the larger NBA trends (#21) we have that backs the Bulls tonight:

pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008 and 11.5 > line > -10

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 87-76-3 - 53.3% (+5.96) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 1-1 (0.00)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 15-15-1 (-.50)

2. pip2 - 17-12 (+4.28)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-16 (-7.96)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 14-14 (-1.40)

7. Heart - 6-1 (+4.92)

8. Consigliere - 10-5-1 (+4.65)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Play posted 12/22 @ 359PM ET
12/22/14 Bulls -4.5 +100 vs Raptors
SDQL:
A and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W and pppp:W and ppppp:W and rest=0 and line>=-8 and month in [12,1] and season>=2009
SDQL: English
Fade the away team coming off a 5 game win streak on 0 days rest with a line greater than -8 in the months of Dec and Jan. A couple trends pointing to fade the Raps tonight. They have been a decent road team so far this year but I think the relatively healthy Bulls will beat them tonight.

[Mako-SBR]

Here's one of the larger NBA trends (#21) we have that backs the Bulls tonight:
pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008 and 11.5 > line > -10

Love that one, even data-mined and overfit to hell it still works for Chicago tonight, 10-52 ATS:

pu margin>10 and rest<1 and P:L and season>2008 and 13>= line>=-9 and (p:FW or p:AFL or p:HDW) and month in [12,1,3,4] and (op:W or op:ADL)

Thanks for the heads up CT, going to use the modified one as a BB:

NBA 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12/22/14 - 4:01p PST

Play: CHI (-4) TOR -110

SDQL:
pu margin>10 and rest<1 and P:L and season>2008 and 13>= line>=-9 and (p:FW or p:AFL or p:HDW) and month in [12,1,3,4] and (op:W or op:ADL)

English:
Team that went over the total by 10 in last game, on no rest, with a line between -9 and +13, against an opponent that won their last game, or, lost as a dog, in the months of 12/1/3/4. Let's get it, we're all pretty much on this game!

[dmitean]

line>12 and month=1 and season>2009
SU:4-48 (-17.92, 7.7%)ATS:17-33-2 (-4.31, 34.0%) avg line: 13.6O/U:16-34-2 (-4.81, 32.0%) avg total: 195.5
Big dogs suck big time in January.
Also notice the Under tendency - since in December it doesn't get a lot better:
line>12 and month=12 and season>2009
SU:1-36 (-14.81, 2.7%)ATS:16-21-0 (-1.34, 43.2%) avg line: 13.5O/U:14-22-1 (-4.46, 38.9%) avg total: 201.0

And combined:
line>12 and month in [12, 1] and season>2009
SU:5-84 (-16.63, 5.6%)ATS:33-54-2 (-3.07, 37.9%) avg line: 13.6O/U:30-56-3 (-4.66, 34.9%) avg total: 197.8

[Alex Vaile]

Nice job on the best bets yesterday guys. I rode all 3 winners. Thanks for posting!