NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

pip2 · 12-18-14, 03:16 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/18/14 12:05pm pst NBA Basketball 506 Sacramento Kings 1st Quarter -2 -105* vs Milwaukee Bucks

SDQL:
Generic to find an applicable game: p:M3 >= 1 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0

For today's game to see if it is a bet: p:M3 >= 1 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0 and 3 < line < 9 and [M1 < -2]

SDQL: English

For the first quarter fade the away or dog team that lost just last night after holding a lead at the end of the third quarter.

nash13 · 12-18-14, 03:24 PM

Is this only for NBA or does it cover all sports?

Heart · 12-18-14, 03:30 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/17 3:20pm
New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 -108 vs Houston Rockets

SDQL:
op

vertime>0 and o:rest=0 and A and playoffs=0

English:
Play away team against an opponent coming off an overtime game on no rest.

emceeaye · 12-18-14, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by pip2

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/18/14 12:05pm pst NBA Basketball 506 Sacramento Kings 1st Quarter -2 -105* vs Milwaukee Bucks

SDQL:
Generic to find an applicable game: p:M3 >= 1 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0

For today's game to see if it is a bet: p:M3 >= 1 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0 and 3 < line < l 9 and [M1 < -2]

SDQL: English

For the first quarter fade the away or dog team that lost just last night after holding a lead at the end of the third quarter.

Pip,
I think there's an error in the query somewhere... I was excited about this one too, but if you compare the number of trues with number of falses in the following query, falses outweigh trues, which means no play...unless I got confused somewhere...

p:M3>1 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0 and line >0 and WP>o:WP and [M1<-2]

Mako-SBR · 12-18-14, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by JMon

just wow..ronald. What a bad run you are on in Best Bets. One freakin point. Keep grinding you will get out of it. Look at Mako, he popped off six straight wins.

What a farce that Spurs game was, hope you didn't have to watch it buddy!

On to the next.

Mako-SBR · 12-18-14, 05:49 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/18/14 2:51p PST

Play: CHI (-12) NYK -110

SDQL:
AD and p:HDL and P:HL and P:ats margin<=-9 and P:season=season and 66>=game number>=15 and season>=2006

English:
Fading an away dog that lost their previous game at home as a dog, and also lost their last meeting against the team they're up against at home by a ton within the same season, in the meat of the season itself.
Mega points to lay, but it goes down easy once you see "New York Knicks" on the sheet...

Let's get it!

pip2 · 12-18-14, 07:08 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Pip,
I think there's an error in the query somewhere... I was excited about this one too, but if you compare the number of trues with number of falses in the following query, falses outweigh trues, which means no play...unless I got confused somewhere...

p:M3 > 1 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0 and line >0 and WP > o:WP and [M1 < -2]

Sorry emceeaye, here is what I was testing with:

p:M3 >= 1 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0 and 3 < line < 9 and [M1 <= -2] and season>2010

this yields 28 true and 18 false but the rate is for both pushes and wins: 28-18 for 61%

if you take out the pushes it is 26-20 or 56.5%

then

p:M3 >= 1 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0 and 3 < line < 9 and [M1 < -2] and season > 2010 and WP > o:WP
yields 6 trues and 4 falses, not a commanding sample size but in line with a reasonable edge

but I don't think this worked before 2010, as also there is no guarantee it will keep working now. If it works today I will be at 4-2 using it, which will be a lot more awesome than being at 3-3 using it...

pip2 · 12-18-14, 07:18 PM

I probably like that query more than I should. The reason is that there very few bets I make where the difference seems to be so obvious and visible, as far as the demoralized team being a beat behind for the first few minutes, fumbling passes and rebounds they would usually grab with no problem, and missing easy shots. But its not like I have a dominating sample size and a huge hit rate to support myself with on this one...I might be just setting myself up to be taken down once again by my old arch-enemy, the law... (of probability).

Ronald S. · 12-18-14, 07:26 PM

No best bet for me tonight. GL everyone

emceeaye · 12-18-14, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by pip2

I probably like that query more than I should. The reason is that there very few bets I make where the difference seems to be so obvious and visible, as far as the demoralized team being a beat behind for the first few minutes, fumbling passes and rebounds they would usually grab with no problem, and missing easy shots. But its not like I have a dominating sample size and a huge hit rate to support myself with on this one...I might be just setting myself up to be taken down once again by my old arch-enemy, the law... (of probability).

I hear you, and I see that slight edge... 6-4 is a bit too small a sample size to extrapolate too much from, but it is consistent with the basic query with a much larger sample size showing the edge. I'm also 3-2 on this going into today's game. I'm on it too.

Good luck

pip2 · 12-18-14, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

I hear you, and I see that slight edge... 6-4 is a bit too small a sample size to extrapolate too much from, but it is consistent with the basic query with a much larger sample size showing the edge. I'm also 3-2 on this going into today's game. I'm on it too.

Good luck

Kind of quick and painless, too! Congrats, emceeaye!

emceeaye · 12-19-14, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by pip2

Kind of quick and painless, too! Congrats, emceeaye!

Aw hell ya, pip!!

JMon · 12-19-14, 07:07 AM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 80-71-3 52.9% (+4.29) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 2-1 (+.90)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 14-13-1 (+.60)

2. pip2 - 16-12 (+3.28)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-14 (-5.83)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 13-13 (-1.30)

7. Heart - 4-1 (+2.92)

8. Consigliere - 8-5-1 (+2.65)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!

Mako-SBR · 12-19-14, 02:14 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/19/14 11:15a PST

Play: OKC (-6.5) LAL -110

SDQL:
HD and rest>=2 and p:PTP>=30 and season>=2006

English:
Fading a rested home dog that generated 30% or more of their points in their last game via three-pointers. We've been playing this one a lot this season with mixed results, let's get it here!

Happy Friday all, BOL!

dmitean · 12-19-14, 02:27 PM

AF and p:HW and pp:HW and p:margin>8 and pp:margin>8 and division!=o:division and line<-4 and season>=2010 and o:HL and month=12
Query 52 if we add month...

dmitean · 12-19-14, 02:41 PM

Today's queries - if someone can add them to the NBA plays sheet:
19.12.14

170 47 14 (weak) 6 Oklahoma -6.5
169 52 Toronto -7.5
167 Charlotte -4.5
163 Under 200 in Detroit
163 Under 191.5 in Miami
155 Under 194 in Memphis 140 (mediocre)
140 Bulls +6.5 (mediocre even more)
129 LAC -4
109 95 75 (weak) Over 195 in SA
27 Over 208.5 in LA
26 Nets +11.5

Heart · 12-19-14, 03:27 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Posted play on 12/19 at 3:23pm
12/19/14 7:35pm Toronto Raptors -7½ -102 vs Detroit Pistons

SDQL:
A and rest>0 and streak>=2 and p:margin>9 and line<-4 and season>2000 and playoffs=0

English:
Play the away team on any rest on a winning streak where they handily won their last game and the line is spread is less than -4 in the reg season.

Notes:
This one's only hitting at about 58% but I'm confident in the edge as it has a pretty big sample size.

mdunlap3 · 12-19-14, 03:33 PM

Thank you J bird...FYI the King uses team based queries all the time sir.

Alex Vaile · 12-19-14, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by mdunlap3

Thank you J bird...FYI the King uses team based queries all the time sir.

You sound bitter man maybe better to just watch and learn than whine about people giving you advice. No one cares what queries you bet.

Consigliere · 12-19-14, 04:43 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Posted play on 12/19 at 4:40pm
12/19/14 7:35pm Toronto Raptors -7 -113 vs Detroit Pistons

SDQL:
AF and line >=-9 and p:margin>=10 and p:division=po:division and op:HL and op:margin<=-10 and season >=1996

English:
Play the away fav on a line less than -9 where they previously won by 10 or more the opponent previously lost at home by more than 10 and the last game the team played was against a division opponent.

pip2 · 12-19-14, 05:39 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/19/14 2:15pm pst Reduced Basketball 815 Portland Trail Blazers/San Antonio Spurs Over 196 -105*

SDQL:

season >= 2010 and p:FTM/p

oints < .12 and 31 > game number > 16 and team not in [Bulls,Suns,Lakers,Grizzlies,Jazz,Knicks] and day not in [Tuesday,Thursday] and o:team not in [Nuggets,Wizards,Pacers,Raptors,Bulls]

SDQL: English

Since 2010, between games 16 and 31, when in the previous game a team scored less than 12% of its points from the free throw line, and if the day isn't Tuesday or Thursday, and the team isn't the Bulls, Suns, Lakers, Grizzlies, Jazz, or Knicks, and their opponent is not the Nuggets, Wizards, Pacers, Raptors, Bulls, then bet the OVER.

Note: this query itself might not be ready for prime time but it is supported by distinctly different queries created by Nash, Hyahya and Jmon. The query from Hyahya is particularly interesting because it was made to predict the OVER based on the data of one team, but in this case the query becomes active on both teams. The query from jmon is an awesome query that cost me some money in vegas a few weeks ago. The only thing that bothers me about the play is a rule jmon mentioned the other day to the effect that when all the queries support a single outcome, they usually turn out to all be wrong....

JMon · 12-19-14, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by pip2

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/19/14 2:15pm pst Reduced Basketball 815 Portland Trail Blazers/San Antonio Spurs Over 196 -105*

SDQL:

season >= 2010 and p:FTM/p

oints < .12 and 31 > game number > 16 and team not in [Bulls,Suns,Lakers,Grizzlies,Jazz,Knicks] and day not in [Tuesday,Thursday] and o:team not in [Nuggets,Wizards,Pacers,Raptors,Bulls]

SDQL: English

Since 2010, between games 16 and 31, when in the previous game a team scored less than 12% of its points from the free throw line, and if the day isn't Tuesday or Thursday, and the team isn't the Bulls, Suns, Lakers, Grizzlies, Jazz, or Knicks, and their opponent is not the Nuggets, Wizards, Pacers, Raptors, Bulls, then bet the OVER.

Note: this query itself might not be ready for prime time but it is supported by distinctly different queries created by Nash, Hyahya and Jmon. The query from Hyahya is particularly interesting because it was made to predict the OVER based on the data of one team, but in this case the query becomes active on both teams. The query from jmon is an awesome query that cost me some money in vegas a few weeks ago. The only thing that bothers me about the play is a rule jmon mentioned the other day to the effect that when all the queries support a single outcome, they usually turn out to all be wrong....

scary but true...happens to me all the time when you think the stars align...look the penetrate out. bol pip..sorry I lost you money in V town.

pip2 · 12-19-14, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by JMon

scary but true...happens to me all the time when you think the stars align...look the penetrate out. bol pip..sorry I lost you money in V town.

Hey, it's a great query. I had a lot more chance of winning on that query than I would have had at the craps table!

Ronald S. · 12-19-14, 06:21 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/19/14 6:15 PM EST

Orlando -4 -105 (vs Utah) (5dimes)

AD and p:ADW and 15 <= p:margin and (2.5 <= line <= 5.5 or line = 45)
SU: 23-49 (-4.31, 31.9%)
ATS: 25-47-0 (-0.30, 34.7%) avg line: 4.0
AD and p:ADW and 15 <= p:margin <= 20 and (2.5 <= line <= 5.5 or line = 45)
SU: 11-37 (-5.81, 22.9%)
ATS: 12-36-0 (-1.74, 25.0%) avg line: 4.1
AD and p:ADW and 15 <= p:margin <= 18 and (2.5 <= line <= 5.5 or line = 45)
SU: 7-30 (-6.89, 18.9%)
ATS: 8-29-0 (-2.84, 21.6%) avg line: 4.1

Play against the away dog who won their previous game as an away dog by a large margin. Works best for 2.5 pt to 5.5 pt (or 45 pts lol) underdogs.

*The database made a mistake on this game and has the jazz as a 45 point underdog

JMon · 12-19-14, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

You sound bitter man maybe better to just watch and learn than whine about people giving you advice. No one cares what queries you bet.

Not really sure what's going on here...he asked for my opinion if I like a query of his and I gave him my opinion and apparently he didn't like it. Mako did too. I have done nothing but help, learn, grow, share my thoughts on sdql since day one. I've been through major hardships learning sdql and all I try to do is help others learn from the mistakes I made. I hope the 'king' takes him to the promise land?

JMon · 12-19-14, 06:29 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/19/14 1:21p CT

Play: MIA +6 -110

HD and P:AL and P:margin <= -10 and p:HF and p:margin <= -15

English:

 Play home dogs - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite

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JMon · 12-19-14, 06:30 PM

Looks like we got some action tonight fellas...bol to all!!!

Ronald S. · 12-19-14, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by JMon

just wow..ronald. What a bad run you are on in Best Bets. One freakin point. Keep grinding you will get out of it. Look at Mako, he popped off six straight wins.

Thanks Jmon. You know it's funny, the last week, I've been doing really well in all my bets, NBA included. Just for whatever reason, the one query I like for the day that I make my best bet have tanked lol. Not to mention, when I passed on the best bet, I usually had a decent query that I liked and bet anyway but didn't make into a best bet because it was borderline, and those hit like 3/4 times lol.

Just the way lady luck goes sometimes I guess. But anyway, I got a good feeling about this one tonight.

Mako-SBR · 12-19-14, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Looks like we got some action tonight fellas...bol to all!!!

We all need to start tailing Ronald's picks even if we never look at them in SDQL or don't care for the scenario...he's due!!

Mako-SBR · 12-19-14, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Ronald S.

Thanks Jmon. You know it's funny, the last week, I've been doing really well in all my bets, NBA included. Just for whatever reason, the one query I like for the day that I make my best bet have tanked lol. Not to mention, when I passed on the best bet, I usually had a decent query that I liked and bet anyway but didn't make into a best bet because it was borderline, and those hit like 3/4 times lol.

Just the way lady luck goes sometimes I guess. But anyway, I got a good feeling about this one tonight.

That's what happened to me at the start, the other bets would all win, damn Best Bet loses. Embarrassing!

Ronald S. · 12-19-14, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

We all need to start tailing Ronald's picks even if we never look at them in SDQL or don't care for the scenario...he's due!!

Ronald S. · 12-19-14, 09:11 PM

JMon · 12-19-14, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by Ronald S.

Thanks Jmon. You know it's funny, the last week, I've been doing really well in all my bets, NBA included. Just for whatever reason, the one query I like for the day that I make my best bet have tanked lol. Not to mention, when I passed on the best bet, I usually had a decent query that I liked and bet anyway but didn't make into a best bet because it was borderline, and those hit like 3/4 times lol.

Just the way lady luck goes sometimes I guess. But anyway, I got a good feeling about this one tonight.

I know exactly what you are saying..mako pointed out as well, ...it's hard to make a best bet using sdql (most of us are volume players)...To date I have 136 plays in and I'm hitting 57.3%--- I play all the best bets I posts in here. You see my record!

Needless to say...don't sweat it. My intentions of this was not a contest, but for us to have fun and document. Not too fight between us, but to prove to those that don't believe in another way of handicapping. There are many that judge us- make fun of the way we capp.. I set this up to document and prove them wrong! That should be our motivation!

Ronald S. · 12-19-14, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by JMon

I know exactly what you are saying..mako pointed out as well, ...it's hard to make a best bet using sdql (most of us are volume players)...To date I have 136 plays in and I'm hitting 57.3%--- I play all the best bets I posts in here. You see my record!

Needless to say...don't sweat it. My intentions of this was not a contest, but for us to have fun and document. Not too fight between us, but to prove to those that don't believe in another way of handicapping. There are many that judge us- make fun of the way we capp.. I set this up to document and prove them wrong! That should be our motivation!

Oh yeah wasn't really sweating it at all. You said it perfectly, just a way to document and have fun doing it.

Heart · 12-20-14, 08:39 AM

p

vertime=3 and pp

vertime=3

A team off back to back triple overtimes lol.. never happened before tonight.. leave it to the Spurs.