John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

[Wallco99]

Thanks Wallco ... i just checked and found that i was looking at the open (atl -1.5) and it closed at a Pick'em , but regardless , its a cover with the three ... You always use scoresandodds for the lines correct ? Thanks again , I was about to put some $ on Atl assuming they pushed , Have a super evening !

For the JM systems we use Covers.com. ALL my systems however use ScoresandOdds.com.

[takethepnts]

Kewl , Thanks again , appreciate the assistance !

[Wallco99]

I'm putting 8.10 units on my 1-7-5 (B) bet for Atlanta.

[imotiv8]

I'm putting 8.10 units on my 1-7-5 (B) bet for Atlanta.

So how much you got on the Spurs then?

[Wallco99]

So how much you got on the Spurs then?

15.01 units.

[J.M. Disciple]

I think we should not list plays as B or C if they do not qualify until back test is done. its going to lead people to bet personal bets and not system bets.

[matskoviche]

i was referring to NHL as well as the jets beat the wings and the ducks beat the rangers to add to the NBA win

[Bdolan33]

confusion abound again

[kevintran32]

does a B Bet mean second bet and C bet means third bet? As in your first A bet with the spurs lost, so for their second game, it is a B bet in which you put in X amount for an overall 1 unit win?

[J.M. Disciple]

does a B Bet mean second bet and C bet means third bet? As in your first A bet with the spurs lost, so for their second game, it is a B bet in which you put in X amount for an overall 1 unit win?

Refer to my post with the plays. It lays out A B C amounts.

[bonhammer]

wrong board not sure how to delete
-bonhammer

[knugen]

15.01 units.

wallco do you dont care about the 3.5 filter? Spurs closing line were -7,5 and they only wob by 6?

[Bdolan33]

1-7-5 system

*Not traditional John Morrison System*

UPCOMING PLAYS
11/5/2013
V1 UTA +10.5 (A) VS BRK
V3 LAL +8.5 (A) VS DAL

Another 0-fer. This system, and any "variation of it" is a bankroll cancer

[Wallco99]

wallco do you dont care about the 3.5 filter? Spurs closing line were -7,5 and they only wob by 6?

Playing them all for now, 3.5 means nothing to me when playing an ATS system. The backtest isn't completely finished, but I like what I'm seeing so far. Not enough yet to tell everyone to try it, but good enough for me.

[Wallco99]

Another 0-fer. This system, and any "variation of it" is a bankroll cancer

Yes, your seven game sample size makes you a true authority for that comment. This cancer has made me money the past three seasons, guess you're not playing it right.

[J.M. Disciple]

1-7-5 system

*Not traditional John Morrison System*

Bet Sizing
A) Risk 1.1u to win 1u
B) Risk 8.91u to win 8.1u
C) Risk 16.51u to win 15.01u


Profit: -1.4
Record:
A) 3-4
B) 0-0
C) 0-0

RULES:Reference Post #184
SCHEDULE: post #78

RECAP
11/5/2013
V1 UTA +9.5(A) VS BRK
V3 LAL +9 (A) VS DAL


UPCOMING PLAYS
11/6/2013 V2 LAC (A) VS ORL
11/6/2013 V3 DAL (A) VS OKC *This one should be fun to watch
11/6/2013 v1 UTA (B) VS BOS
11/7/2013 V3 LAL (B) VS HOU *

[Wallco99]

I've got a handle on it, but really do appreciate the offer. Thanks.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Another 0-fer. This system, and any "variation of it" is a bankroll cancer

Atlanta and San Antonio won...positive units for me.
Wallco made 10 units last night just on the four games (give or take). I didn't as I'm not quite playing it as he is until my bankroll gets a bit more in it after the fiasco of the NFL this past weekend.

[Panksy]

Good luck this season guys
Came back to this site just to follow the 1-7-5
Hopefully chase 110 will have a good year also

[Kev the Brit]

I'm not totally convinced by the concept of the 1-7-5 strategy versus the 0-7-5 strategy. The 7-5 strategy was borne out of the win/loss ratio of the traditional JM A bet, which has been clearly shown to lose in the long run and thats with the 3 point buy as well. I fully understand that last season the A bets performed well, but historically, they are a waste of money. However, I also recognise that the basic spread odds do not require the same level of success (target 56%) as the spread +3 odds (target approx 60%).Good luck with the back test, Wallco, but I believe last year was a (welcome) blip in the stats Regards. Kev

[Boyne]

Atlanta and San Antonio won...positive units for me.
Wallco made 10 units last night just on the four games (give or take). I didn't as I'm not quite playing it as he is until my bankroll gets a bit more in it after the fiasco of the NFL this past weekend.

Well said, Buckeye. History suggests these aren't bad systems and are worthy of serious consideration. Re the NFL, I stopped 'investing' in that a couple of years ago after losing a fortune. I've since 'dry'-followed a few systems that I've been shown, but they don't seem to work as well as in the (rose-tinted?) past. So, no, I pay no attention to the NFL any more (from a money-exchanging perspective, that is). Best of luck with yours, though.

[J.M. Disciple]

I'm not totally convinced by the concept of the 1-7-5 strategy versus the 0-7-5 strategy. The 7-5 strategy was borne out of the win/loss ratio of the traditional JM A bet, which has been clearly shown to lose in the long run and thats with the 3 point buy as well. I fully understand that last season the A bets performed well, but historically, they are a waste of money. However, I also recognise that the basic spread odds do not require the same level of success (target 56%) as the spread +3 odds (target approx 60%).Good luck with the back test, Wallco, but I believe last year was a (welcome) blip in the stats Regards. Kev

1-7-5 with the 3.5 filter has proven to be positive units over 5 years I think thelimit said he tested it for.

[Kankerganker]

I'm not totally convinced by the concept of the 1-7-5 strategy versus the 0-7-5 strategy. The 7-5 strategy was borne out of the win/loss ratio of the traditional JM A bet, which has been clearly shown to lose in the long run and thats with the 3 point buy as well. I fully understand that last season the A bets performed well, but historically, they are a waste of money. However, I also recognise that the basic spread odds do not require the same level of success (target 56%) as the spread +3 odds (target approx 60%).Good luck with the back test, Wallco, but I believe last year was a (welcome) blip in the stats Regards. Kev

I think the A bet looks much better when you look at it in context of the system; most lost A-bets will be chased on B and C bets, so even if the A bet only breaks even, its +1 unit when A bet wins, -1.1 when it loses and doesn't go to 7-5 because of the filter(which wallco ignores, even tho there's no backtest without filter, yet, i think?), and it makes it cost about 4 units more to lose on a C bet.
so, with no filter: if [A-bets won]-4*[C-bets lost]= >0, A bets are profitable.

[ok15533]

Guy. the JM plays without buying the points is what we call the Chase 110 or is it a totally different system?

[thelimit0310]

Chase 110 is totally different from the JM system. Wallco created it himself a couple years ago.

Kev, normally I would agree with you, and I must say I'm on your side when it comes to throwing out my 3.5 filter, but the way I laid out the 1-7/5 tells a different story. We have a few differences here, first no point buy on the A bets and secondly the 3.5 filter is still in place so we do not chase every series to the end. I found during my backtest the A bets, when played with the rules in place, consistently boosted the system's year-end profits by about 20 units per season. Of course the 7/5 is still a consistently profitable method of play here and if you don't want to play the A bets you can continue to play the 7/5 as originally put together and you will still profit from it!

[DANO74]

When will the Chase 110 begin?

[Kev the Brit]

Limit and Wallco: I completely agree with the concept of 7-5 and well done Limit for creating it. However, I will drop it if there is a better way to play the JM schedules. So, guys, at the risk of being criticized for not back reading this thread, how many years have you back tested 1-7-5? Thanks, Kev

[Wallco99]

I'm not totally convinced by the concept of the 1-7-5 strategy versus the 0-7-5 strategy. The 7-5 strategy was borne out of the win/loss ratio of the traditional JM A bet, which has been clearly shown to lose in the long run and thats with the 3 point buy as well. I fully understand that last season the A bets performed well, but historically, they are a waste of money. However, I also recognise that the basic spread odds do not require the same level of success (target 56%) as the spread +3 odds (target approx 60%).Good luck with the back test, Wallco, but I believe last year was a (welcome) blip in the stats Regards. Kev

I can tell you this, the six years I have tested, the 1-7-5 has outperformed the 7/5 EVERY season, making the rumor of not playing (A) bets a fallacy. As far as which way to play the 1-7-5, that is what I am working on with the test. But as far as whether it is better than just strictly 7/5, I think the backtests limit and I have both performed on different seasons will attest to the fact that it most likely is.

[Wallco99]

Limit and Wallco: I completely agree with the concept of 7-5 and well done Limit for creating it. However, I will drop it if there is a better way to play the JM schedules. So, guys, at the risk of being criticized for not back reading this thread, how many years have you back tested 1-7-5? Thanks, Kev

Six seasons to date. When I first started it last year, I played the 3.5 filter for a few weeks. I saw how many bets I was missing out on so I started playing ALL series to end, regardless of my win or loss on (A). My testing so far has shown very good results playing 1-7-5 with the filter, and I believe all but 1 season so far even better without filter. I want this test to be extensive so there is no doubt whether or not I stopped it prematurely. So for now I would suggest 1-7-5 with the filter, and hopefully soon, without. I was the only one who played it last year so I know what it can do, both with and without filter for the short term. It is the long term which matters to me most though.

[Bdolan33]

gl...

[Kev the Brit]

Six seasons to date. When I first started it last year, I played the 3.5 filter for a few weeks. I saw how many bets I was missing out on so I started playing ALL series to end, regardless of my win or loss on (A). My testing so far has shown very good results playing 1-7-5 with the filter, and I believe all but 1 season so far even better without filter. I want this test to be extensive so there is no doubt whether or not I stopped it prematurely. So for now I would suggest 1-7-5 with the filter, and hopefully soon, without. I was the only one who played it last year so I know what it can do, both with and without filter for the short term. It is the long term which matters to me most though.

That's good enough for me. Traditional JM, JM B/C, JM 7-5 are now history. All of my JM NBA bankroll is now funding 1-7-5 (with 3.5 filter) only.

[shevabets]

When will the Chase 110 begin?

I know I should be able to go back a few pages and find the answer; but I would appreciate if someone tells me here whether Chase 110 picks will be posted here or elsewhere.

[J.M. Disciple]

I know I should be able to go back a few pages and find the answer; but I would appreciate if someone tells me here whether Chase 110 picks will be posted here or elsewhere.

Will be posted here by wallco. When there is a qualifying play he will post it. Right now there are not qualifying plays.

[shevabets]

Giving you points must be a bad joke (since you are a non-pro with 3,000 pts which means at least 774 are wasted already).. but thank you!

[ridersonthestorm]

I'm starting to think Utah should be avoided at all costs in the near future. Have no seen crappier team for a long while.