Leans or Saturday 12/27/08

[shoebox]

shoe,

I said that you will win more times doing what I do than just voultarily giving that 10% away oon each and every bet. If Boson wins by 5, I take a loss, but AT LEAST I GAVE MYSELF A CHANCE TO WIN SOMETHING, instead of taking the straight up loss. What i am doing is I'm giving myself a chance. And if you have been followin basketball which i know that you have, you know as well as i do that usually when you lose, you lose your wager and your vigorish outright. With my way of oing thingsat leas you set yourself up to have a chance and if the dog happens to beat you, straight up then you may end up with more for a small play than you put up on the favorite side you bet. But as long as you are playing this over in your mind with virtual, and not real money it won't make sense. Once you startt doing it, then it ill more than make sense when you lose and the other side wins outright. You may not get all of them, but the ones that you do win that are +800 or +1000 and so on will more than take up for any loss you took. Nothing is 100%, but I bet you that i make more when i lose than 95% of the bettors on this board who fail to fade themselves in any fashion. Sure there are times when I take a loss both ways, but at least I tried something different with my vigorish instead of risking giving it away every play. Once you try it with rea money, it will be like a light switch just went off in your head. As long as you continue to think about indstead of doing it, then you will continue to have a much higher percentage of OUTRIGHT losses.

@CK you got the wrong guy, I never said any of that this is my first post today, homes.

Hitting the research will post picks in about an hour had to take a day off from the thread. Lets get em today fellas our work day starts in 1:35 minutes

[nonsense48]

i'm not a big gimmick bettor. ask any local book or talk with any casino sportbook manager. they live and breath on the gimmick bettors. it's they're bread and butter

[cocknocker]

nonsense48,

You would be a fool not to take my advice on the 1st inning baseball wager for a run to score. Do it on 2 books for $300.00 apiece starting in August and thank me when you have enough money to forget aboout the recession. I've made so much money off of doing it that I know that I am the King of Wagering Money Management. I move that money around to books with 30-50% bonuses until the upcoming season comes no matter if it's hockey football or whatever. So my money actually makes money for me. And all that i do to make the requirement for receiving the money is the same thing that i am being criticized for and that's small fade wagers. Small price to pay for depositing maybe 15 grand, and getting roughly 6 grand in some cases just for the deposit from the book. And you can imagine that if i do that to three seperate books I get $15,000.00 to 18,000.00 in donations just from the presence of my money at the 3 books. All from going against the grain and taking a first inning run to score. No homework involved and mostly positive money wagers. I can take criticism. I can't take a loss without putting my fade wager on my books because I have to do it in order to keep their money.

You guys better learn what i'm telling you. CK is a moneymaking machine, with or without a bad day. Everybody get your 4 grand in place before April

[SlicWilly3]

see, i would never put up 200 to win 80.

huh

[nonsense48]

ck, i see what you're doing but the average bettor uses his local book. as for the recession. no worries here. i own and operate 1 of the largest headshops in the country. business is banging. recession proof

[Dexter]

nonsense - why do you continue to make posts within 30 seconds of one another? you make the thread a lot longer than it needs to be. there is an "edit post" feature.

[nonsense48]

huh

willy, did you not say that u played wv 200.00 to win 280.00?

[cocknocker]

nonsense48,

it's not a gimmick. Oh buddy itis so for real. Go to CBS Sports and track the games all the way from the 1st game in March between the A's and Boston in Japan and come forward, using daily charts of the games and playoffs and note that in the playoffs I double up each inning until a run scores through the third inning only. if one doesn't score by the third inning with live betting i back off and just take the loss. But i only took two losses in the entire playoffs. Then try the same research for the previous year, and then you will get a feel for the type of money i make doing just that with no homework involved.

I use two books for these types of wagers: Greek (for the season) and Betus (during live bets and playoffs). I have no reason to sensationalize what i do, because i don't care if anyone takes my advice. i just give my offering for what keeps me out of the work force and on my own for 13 years and running.that and a little rental property

[nonsense48]

i'm fairly new to this thread. sorry...ok dex i see what you say. again apologize

[CTS5]

CK, bobcats look like a great bet here at such a low spread. Nets are inconsistent and they had a game last night. Bobcats are on a little hot streak. -2.5 looks really good to me. Am I overlooking anything here?

[Dexter]

i'm fairly new to this thread. sorry...ok dex i see what you say. again apologize

no worries - sometimes when you step away from the thread for a while, its time consuming to sift through the not so informative posts when you come back looking for info. thx.

[Netprofit]

CK, just focus on what you do best instead of wasting energy on argument with another on this wonderful thread!

From the accounting and mathematical point of view the fading thing and the buying the point thing do not seem right, because it increases immediately the overall percentage of winning bets in order to win a net profit A LOT! What I do not know is whether this thing of handicapping is ALL about accounting and mathematics so I still have a reservation that you could be right and I am wrong. I am just not convinced about calling these (fading and buying point) money management. On the other hand, you have explained and elaborated good money management principles here, like betting evenly on your bets except on the highly confident ones, hitting the real confident ones hard, not chasing after a losing day, betting small on half time bets, not using parlays or at most very small. All these are appreciated. For me, I will call fading and buying points your "style" and it may suit you really well but I am not sure more than that.

In any case, you do not have to win all arguments and you do not have to be always right. I am sure that the 4000 or so viewers of this thread appreciate your analytical comments and your good picks. Also your tremendous insights and knowledge from many years of experience are invaluable. For those who got upsets for 2 days of 1-5 and 0-6 they have not learnt the most basic of this business.

Just my opinion.

[SlicWilly3]

willy, did you not say that u played wv 200.00 to win 280.00?

Your winning 280, not 80?

If you take WV + the points and win you win 200.....But if you lose, you lose 220 at most books/locals.

I took WV on the ML....If I lose I lose 200....(NO Vig) And if I win I win 280 instead of 200.

I love doing this with COLLEGE Basketball.....Because your betting on "kids".....Who have hw, gf's, acne , and lots more issues than professionals...In most cases.....And also 1 player having an off night in College B'Ball has a much greater effect on his team than 1 player in College F'Ball having an "off" night.....and some of which are trying to find their way in College.....So on any given night some come to play, and some don't. Hence why I love College B'Ball ML Dog's....MUCH MORE than taking the spread either way

[cocknocker]

nonsense48,

I own a 1967 convertible Barricuda, and I was looking for some of the old school "J" heads. Tuff Dawg Engines has some stainless steel ones, but I wouldn't mind dealing with you if you can get your hands on some. i am looking to beef up my 360 a little bit. I'm gonna go with the XE 262H Hydraulic Competition Cam and I think that the J's would make my Mopar engine blast off. Get back at me and let me know if you can get some for me.

[peterpan19]

ck
I did research the thing with 1 inning score a few weeks back, when you first talked about it, I did it until august and then I was sold on it
thx

[nonsense48]

my nba pick as follows: okl+7 cha-2' det+5' utah+10 por-8...nickle on each. gl all

[Smacksmiter]

nonsense48,

I own a 1967 convertible Barricuda, and I was looking for some of the old school "J" heads. Tuff Dawg Engines has some stainless steel ones, but I wouldn't mind dealing with you if you can get your hands on some. i am looking to beef up my 360 a little bit. I'm gonna go with the XE 262H Hydraulic Competition Cam and I think that the J's would make my Mopar engine blast off. Get back at me and let me know if you can get some for me.

I might be mistaken Ck...but I think he might be referring to another type of "headshop"

[cocknocker]

CTS5,

You know what, the Bobcats are going to be the real thing, as i made mention of before, and that is why i dropped the Nets from my playbook. I just can't go against them right now. It would be hard to imagine that theNets don't get the cover here, due to the whole home and home thing, but it looks like a good wager to say that the Bobcats are an up and coming team that just may actually be better than the Nets. I'll take Larry Brown on any day to get the job done when he has the right listeners and doers. It's very tough mathcup, man. I tend t like the over in this game, as I don't think that the poor shooting can go on any longer for the Nets.

[nonsense48]

Your winning 280, not 80?

If you take WV + the points and win you win 200.....But if you lose, you lose 220 at most books/locals.

I took WV on the ML....If I lose I lose 200....(NO Vig) And if I win I win 280 instead of 200.

I love doing this with COLLEGE Basketball.....Because your betting on "kids".....Who have hw, gf's, acne , and lots more issues than professionals...In most cases.....And also 1 player having an off night in College B'Ball has a much greater effect on his team than 1 player in College F'Ball having an "off" night.....and some of which are trying to find their way in College.....So on any given night some come to play, and some don't. Hence why I love College B'Ball ML Dog's....MUCH MORE than taking the spread either way

sorry willy, i misread. i thought u were sending 200.00 to pick up 80.00 in profit.

[nonsense48]

ck, much different kind of headshop. handblown functional glass art.

[shoebox]

Final plays
Going to cbb common I trust these college boys ck!!!!!!!!!
These plays have great movement that i want and im gonna roll with em
Fade me, take em or do nothing at all gl time for a book sweep!!!
Port -2
Geo wash 0
Flrint +4.5
Washington -5.5 ck picks (if you fools dont follow a pc play you all dont like money!!)

@Spoon give me your card

[cocknocker]

Smacksmiter,

What other kinds of heads are there? Oh never mind, but that's what i need. it's time for the garage work. Winter is always the best time to do it, and It takes only 2 days to swap out heads and cam and lifters. I want to burn up the road on the way to Hot August Nights this year. I had a guy offer me some heavy coin for my car last year on my sandwich board.

[cocknocker]

Good luck, shoe,

you know I hate college basketball!

[nonsense48]

ck, i could make that cuda smoke in a sense.

[peterpan19]

ck
2nd half thoughts ?

[SlicWilly3]

ck, much different kind of headshop. handblown functional glass art.

Ahhh yes....Good for the sticky Icky Icky

As for basketball......I like Detroit Pistons ML tonight fella's.
They are an up and down team this year I realize that....But the winner of this game tonight with Milw is a coin flip imo.
That's why taking the Pistons ML 200 to win 380 has A LOT of value imo. They can win this game JUST as easily as Milw can.

[cocknocker]

Okay, small wager on Florida State 2nd half-2.5. I don't think that Wisconsin has the overall team speed to get past the Seminole defenders. Spoon, your pick is golden so far! I only put 3 bills on it, but hey if it works, it works!

[nonsense48]

i think they beat milw su even without a.i.

[cocknocker]

Oh, okay, now i get it nonsense48,

I was a little slow on that one...I'm a cultivator here in California, so I should have picked up on it. But now that you mention it, I am looking for something that looks like a tall slender/narrow flower vase that has lavender and deep purple colors in it. The stem and grommet could be a half inch, and i like a removable stem, with a tiny hook on the bottom of it. And of course I want a wide mouth on top. What say yee? My birthday is on January 2nd, but I wouldn't be troubled to get it after that! I hav a couple of bucks homes

[peterpan19]

ck
thx

[nonsense48]

injury update for utah?

[nonsense48]

ck, i deal with a company that does colorful flower vase type smoking vessels. i'll see what i can come up with for you my friend. about a 2 footer ok with you?

[cocknocker]

Okay,

Official play number 3 boys and girls

New Jersey and Charlotte over 188.5 with a hook buy

nonsense48,

yeah a two footer is cool. i want it to look like a piece of art that can sit out while company is over and no one will know what it is.

[nonsense48]

do we have an agreed concensus nba best bet for this eve gang?

[Spoon]

Sorry guys, when FSU plays I'm in a zone and really don't allow distractions. I almost forgot my plays.

Final Plays...

FSU/UW-M: Under 52.5 Pending...
Cal: -8
Orlando: -8 (Full Point)
Bucks: -5
Hawks: -8
Oklahoma: +8 (Full Point)
Portland -1
George Washington: PK

@Shoe: We are finally on the same side in NCAA BB. Woot! Woot! Btw, I noticed that too... CK making that mistake directing that comment to you lol. At least he was thinking about you today.

@CK: Go Noles! Oh, and the under.

GL Everyone.