Leans or Saturday 12/27/08

[peterpan19]

nonsense48
number of posts I guess

[nonsense48]

thanks

[peterpan19]

come on was, Go Go Go Go

[nonsense48]

they lied a.i. started for det

[ManBearPig]

Was up by 11 right now...should make some feel a little better.

[nonsense48]

lookin' good for wash. 27-21 det after 1q

[Dexter]

blatche with a big block, and thats it.

PC - $$$

[steemkatz]

thank you washington

[ManBearPig]

Looks like it was still a PC without Butler...no biggie

[nonsense48]

congrats wash players

[shoebox]

Florida International --Cashed
Washington- Cashed thanks ck
Portland -loser by a damn point!!!!!!

George wash final play
GL fellas

[ZXCVBNM]

Magic are -4. Take it. Following this team throughout the year I have learned that 3rd quarters are where they win the game. If they are ahead in the first half by 10+ - they take it easy. But if they're tied or behind they turn it up to a good lead, and manage it in the 4th. They've done this with any below-par team they've faced at home. Kind of do the bare minimum to win, it's why they don't really do blowouts.

Orlando Magic 3rd Quarter -4 (it has now moved to 3.5)

I'm reposting it on here, I'm THAT sure this will hit.

[Dexter]

my plays are as followsrl-9' det+5 utah+10 port-8 nickle each i didn't play the game i'm jusy sayin' it happens

you backed off of the thunder and bobcats non?

[Dexter]

OT in charl - nets were up 3 with 30 seconds left, and felton got a 3pt play as lopez fouled him on a layup. harris and carter missed jumpers at the end of regulation...

[indeed]

C'mon Magic ... I really need this one to work out ..

[jayc88]

i hate ot happened to me quite a lot last weeks when a a dog covered until the end of the game to get blown out in ot

[Broncos9798]

CK,

Thanks for the PC play today. Sorry for getting snappy yesterday with the ML hedge strategy I had just lost a lot of money. You brought me back today with Washington!

If any of you guys watch UFC and are watching the greatest fights ever tonight I recommend putting a small wager on Wanderlei Silva tonight. Not only a great fight to watch but Wanderlei owns Rampage. With Rampage being the better known fighter the public keeps this one relativly close.

GL and have a great night.

Broncos

[nonsense48]

you backed off of the thunder and bobcats non?

just the 4 games: orl-9' det+5 utah+10 port-8

[cocknocker]

Okay now that I am back to normal temperature, I like thePortland Trailblazers -7.5 with a hook buy, and I don't like them in the first half as I think that the carry over effect will aid the Raptors to get the 1st half. they usually lead 48.8 to 45.8. I think that Portland will do what they usually do and come on late to get the cover. The Raptors get a brek in his game as Bosh fouled out early lst night and will be ultra fresh for this game. But the Blazers have a lot of length and rest on their side, as the Raptors are on their 5th game of a road trip. I have to fade them for that no matter what.

PC Plays are now 11-3 ats

Blazers-7.5

[cocknocker]

Looks like no matter what, I'll get my over for the New Jersey/Charlotte game as they are in overtime now! So come on, Cal!

Don't trip, Spoon we'll get tht minor setback back tomorrow. I hvae a couple of blowouts on tap for us. Check me out on the new thread later on tonight!

[nonsense48]

dex, no call on thunder or bobs this eve. never even considered either of them. ck, they didn't have a chance to prepare for butler no-show. sometimes that works and it did tonite.

[isiah121]

Seems like Bucks might not be able to make the cover. Let's see.

[cocknocker]

Wow! Am I glad I had attitude after the Caron Butler mess. I see that the Bucks are messing around now, but I also see that Orlando is well on their way to getting the team total, so those would have been a wash..

[Dexter]

dex, no call on thunder or bobs this eve. never even considered either of them. ck, they didn't have a chance to prepare for butler no-show. sometimes that works and it did tonite.

this was your post from earlier...

"my nba pick as follows: okl+7 cha-2' det+5' utah+10 por-8...nickle on each. gl all"

anyway, the bucks look like pure trash here in the 3rd...they cant hit anything.

[peterpan19]

ck
waiting for 2nd half to make my por play, tor should be tired ...

was did, lord didnt let us down

edit: all your first picks are great, good for the ones who only read first page
still hope for orl cover, right now I am 3-0 (was, over and nets)
thx ck

[nonsense48]

this was your post from earlier...

"my nba pick as follows: okl+7 cha-2' det+5' utah+10 por-8...nickle on each. gl all"

anyway, the bucks look like pure trash here in the 3rd...they cant hit anything.

good eye dex. i posted my final picks and plays. dropped okl and char and went with orl just before 7pm

[indeed]

Breathing much easier now .. thank you CK for Washington/Nets .. saved my ass tonight

[Dexter]

hedo is a beast in the 4th qtr of games...

[NBA Hero]

3wins

ck, you are the man, haha. three of your pick is a win already. the fourth one, detroit is pending, but as good as won.

its a shame you didnt took a chance on atl and orl.

[cocknocker]

Greg Oden is a bust. I just wanted to go on record now and declare that. His offensive game is not up the standard that a first overall draft choice's status. He is too mechanical....

[cocknocker]

roasthawg,

Where is that baseball information? Small ball is gonna make a believer out of that guy. The underdogs don't play around in that sport.And when he finds those nu,bers, he will see what i mean by underdogs winning close to 50% of the games in all sports, most notably baseball.

[Dexter]

wow, cal with first and goal from the one and they can only get 3....

[indeed]

Greg Oden is a bust. I just wanted to go on record now and declare that. His offensive game is not up the standard that a first overall draft choice's status. He is too mechanical....

Completely agree

[nonsense48]

his play is just boring i think

[roasthawg]

roasthawg,

Where is that baseball information? Small ball is gonna make a believer out of that guy. The underdogs don't play around in that sport.And when he finds those nu,bers, he will see what i mean by underdogs winning close to 50% of the games in all sports, most notably baseball.

I went ahead and ran the numbers on mlb moneyline underdogs for you from 1999-present. Underdogs have won an impressive 42.7% of the games, nice but still a long way from >50%. So in 4 out of the 6 sports we've yet to have one underdog win straight up greater than 45% of the time and in only one sport has an underdog cleared a 33% win rate.

CK you seem to be a decent capper (hard for me to give anymore props than that without a record of your plays) but you are so far wrong on this one issue that you really just need to accept it and move on. There is no way Vegas is wrong on who wins the game straight up more than half the time...I mean really man, pretty much any capper on this site could pick better than 50% winners su. Baseball's the best bet in terms of dog's winning straight up but the moneylines are also generally the tightest. Bottom line is it isn't easy making money in sports gambling...it takes solid capping and sound money management to make a go of it.