Leans or Saturday 12/27/08

[peterpan19]

final plays and already locked in:
Orl -9, on Orlando is on fire now and Min played just yesterday and they have to travel again, and Orl is 3-1 ATS in Min, I smell blowout
Was -6, ck this is your PC play, just have to follow it, btw you said it too, Sea/okc always struggles in Was, and on b2b nights even more, dont get me wrong Was might only have 4 wins or so, but they played decent ball the last few games
NJN +3 , Over 189.5, Jersey is 7-1 Su in Charlotte, over hit 8 out of 11 times here, that being a revenge game for them expect Jersey to win this one or loose a close one, also I expect there will be no D today

already at my daily limit, so no more big plays for me today

just a few trends I found:
utah is 5-1 ATS in Houston
det is 4-1 SU in Mil

ck just ignore the haters

[Dexter]

final early plays-

w.virginia -2
under wvirg 47
over fsu 51.5

Good Luck all....

[SlicWilly3]

I'm really liking UNC here fella's......I think they win this one. This is also basically a home game for them. Should be a close one either way....I'm actually taking UNC on a teaser +8.....I can't see this game being a blowout either way. Should come down to a fg....

[gracie17]

Hey Africanroller, any hockey picks? I started following your picks and really appreciate your work on them. Haven't seen any in a while and just wondering if your still doing them. Thanks

[cocknocker]

Ant2nv,

after all of that you go with the same pick (Nets), then insinuate that everybody can't afford to play the way that i do. I hardly ever play halftime wager for more than I played a game wager for trust that. Usually only $100 to $200.00 and that is the truth. I played ONE BIG halftime wager this year, and that was a third quarter wager on the Lakers for $3K.

To your second allegation the answer is not true, no on can afford to NOT to play the way that I do. Once you start to do this thing of ours for a profession, you must learn how to manage your money, and you must have more than one book. Anyone wagering with only one book is basically one and done, when taking a loss. Anyone who can't see that winning some of the time with a hedge wager on the other side's moneyline is better than not getting anything none of the time is blind, and should continue to give away vigorish.

I doubt that there is anyone here who would rather go to Shell Gas and play $2.40 a gallon when the guy up the street is selling gas for $1.85. Why give one guy the vigorish instead of giving it to yourself, no matter how small it seems. Banks take a penny from 22 billion people and make profits unheard of.

Now Ant2nv, it is good that you decided to be more productive in your statements instead of talking down on the plays of others. Beleive me, win or lose, i will not defile you.The reason why you have so many people coming down on you is that you acted with no class, and that is the nly way that you chose to get attention. The CK Mafia lose a game or all the games in that day for that matter, and you would never know by the reactions of other members. We didn't make names for our selves criticiziing other people for the bad days. We made a name for ourselves by doing sound handicapping, win/lose/draw. Keep on coming to the thread and be more contirbutory. Then we can make something of that. I'm not too sure about my football record, but all that I know is that I lost my first bowl game yesterday, and I have bet on every last one of them. NFL is doing alright too. I have no idea of my record, but i will tell you this. I am hitting at a 70% clip for sure in NFL. Yet in spite of that, guess what? I never mentioned it until now. That's class.

[cocknocker]

Two final plays so far,

Washington-5.5 (PC Play)
West Virginia-1.5

[cocknocker]

Dexter,

I like that! Milwaukee only has only 21% of bettors on their side, yet the line went up to 5. So matter of fact, I am going to go with you on your pick, and take the Bucks to get the job done, and I am dropping New Jersey+4, as I don't like the line movement. According to power rankings, the Bucks should win by 10. There is nothing that I can find wrong with your pick. I'm in.

[showtime2000]

CK, tough day, let's forget and move on. Liking your card today. Hers's what i got, can i add a few and get some feedback from ya,

Chi@Atl
-Chicago is 6-2ats in atlanta last 8 games
-Chiacgo is 12-4ats last 16 meetings
-Chicago has lost 7 straight road wins
-Chicago has rebounded this season after a loss of 10points or more at a stat of 6-0ats
-Atlanta has won 3 straight (time to fade them?)
I know Chicago played yesterday but these trends seem to be pretty good. Thoughts on Chicago +10?


Utah@Hous
-some pretty strong trends supporting Utah, Jazz 5-1ats last 6 in houston, Jazz 10-4ats last 14 vs Hous
-with htis being houston's first game back after a long trip is it time to fade them?
Utah +9?



Africanroller, some NHL for ya,

-New York Rangers, blowing a 4-0 lead to Washington the other day is all they've thought about during Christmas. Plus add the fact that the last time they played Jersey they took a thumping from them 8-5.

-Boston/Carolina Over, Over is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings in Carolina head to head

So far this is what i have.

[cocknocker]

But showtime2000,

be advised that my card has changed. I am taking Dexters' play of the day now and dropping the Nets (see 1st page opening announcement)and now taking the Bucks-4. So my card looks like this now:

Orlando team total to go over 102
Bucks-4
New Jersey/Charlotte over 191.5 (small)
Washington-5.5 (PC Play)

College Football

West Virginia-1.5
Cal-8.5 (Big)

Still smoking on the Blazers late. I have to watch the line movement on that one, but it has the look of being a blowout so far. I would like t get them at 7.5 or 6.5 with a point buy. But either way that I look at it, they should beat the Raptors by double digits

[africanroller]

Well the NHL was on break for 2 days and yesterday I just stayed away as you never know what your going to get the day after Christmas. If you look at the box scores yesterday you can see that was the right move as pretty much nothing went as expected.

Even thou I have been with the Bruins for years the one team I never bet them against is Carolina. There is still just a hatred there since they left Hartford and if anyone is going to get the best of them its the Canes.

Also I try and stay away from Rivalry games like NY and NJ as these games are a coin flip. I usually bet the more obscure, lesser attractive games like Philly over Columbus today . I am still researching for the games today but as far as o/u I need to be set on whose in net before I make those picks.

As far as ML I like Philly, Buffalo,Florida,SJ and Phoenix

Also if you dont see my picks in this thread check out the Hockey forum as I put a post in there.

[ClockCleaner]

knocker

Whats wrong with the line movement? Bobcats have a little over 50% of the bets but the line dropped to -2.5.

[showtime2000]

Just saw the changes, thanks for the update. The Washignton line has jumped to 7 now any thoughts if the line will move back down again or if not i can only buy 1 point and bring it to 6.any thougths?

[cocknocker]

showtime2000,

Chicago is an iffy pick but they will play hard for you out of desperation. I have the Hawks winning by 10 exactly. So my advice is to lay off of that one. Now with Utah, you've got something there. They seem to be a better road team this year, and I can say for sure that they will come out to play in this oe. Ceck to see if Artest is playin. He is pivotal to their success. When he and Yao and McGriddles are on the floor, Houston is tough to beat at home. Strange as it seems, the Rockets haven't played together enough for me to actually get a pulse for them. Very hard team to handicap.

Check the injury report, homes or go the local Houston newspaper and see what his status is

[cocknocker]

Clockcleaner,

I have already dropped that game in favor of the Bucks, but the line movement favors my old pick, the Nets...

[peterpan19]

I just dont know about that Mil pick, I know Det played yesterday a close one against OKC and are on b2b nights, but they always played Mil good (4-1 SU), and Det +points, I mean it almost sounds too good to be true, and that might be the reason why I cant play it, I just dont know

Por also is not so bad, I mean 5th road game for Tor, played last night and Por off a humiliating loss against dallas, just looking really but, only thing that worries me is that por is 1-3 ATS vs Tor, but than Por should be hot and Tor should be tired by now

edit: high scoring game early on, I like it

[indeed]

Hey everyone .. I'm liking the Grizzlies1H +7.5 .. they played tough last night at home and pulled out a victory over the Pacers and are feeling pretty confident because they only allowed 37 points in the second half .. the flight to San Antonio isn't very long and the Spurs have had a few days off after their Christmas Day win .. I think the Spurs will come out a bit sluggish and will allow the Grizzlies to stay close before pulling away in the third (they are, after all, rested). The +13 is a bit too high for me, but I'm confident in the first half line, which currently is at +7.5.

Other plays for me today:
WVU -3.5
Miami/Cal under 50.5
Wiz -6.5
Magic -9
Grizzlies1H +7.5

GL everyone!

[Wizard]

Ant2nv,

Don't have time to sift through that many posts. Just start being up to date from now on and that will be fine. There are 7,000 or so people who visit the thread daily. Do you think that they're coming to see what you're gonna pick? Please...

Broncos9798,

I am going to explain this for you and the thread one last time, and I hope that I don't have to go over this again, because I hate retracing my steps.

If you can grasp the statement, don't pay vigorish then you are already there. Taking an example of a -110 bet for $300.00. It usually will take $330 to win $300 on a -110 bet right?

Put up exactly $300.00 to win $272.73, and with the remaining $30.00 you would have put up on your -110 bet to make $300.00 ($330.00) put it on the other sides moneyline.

If I put up $300.00 to win $272.73 on the Celtics -10.5 -110 -1400 on one book, and then on another I put up $30.00 on the Warriors moneyline at +1000, then it is easy to see that if the Warriors win, then I get back $300.00.

If I had taken the Warriors, the I would have put the $30.00 on the Boston moneyline (-1400) and take the profit. No matter how small it's better for you to get the profit, than to voluntarily give it to the books everytime you take a loss.

That's why I never take a complete loss. I don't give a damn if I only win some crumbs. They are my crumbs, and not Bodog's,or greeks or Linemsakers, and so on. The vig is what keeps them in business. Once you learn that, then you won't mind taking a chance on yourself on everysingle bet instead of giving it away every single bet. Sure I lost with the Celtics pick yesterday, but i was able to salvage almost ALL of what i put down, instead of taking an outright loss. I lost with the 600.00 on the Kings, but i also got some -175 money for the Raptors as well played for $60.00.

Hope you understand now. You need your money in more than one sportsbook, or if you have to, get two accounts with the same one.

Ant2nv,

You do realize that you are doing all of this talking without putting up your picks and the reason why you came up your picks. i ain't through with you yet. You can be a positive contributor, or you can look foolish however do you want it. Or better than that, you can start your own thread. Now that's three choices for you, which one you gonna do?

i guess i'm missing how you would never take a complete loss using this technique. if you put 300 on boston -10.5 and put the other 30 on the Golden State money line you would only be fine if Boston covered or GS won outright (which i realize they did last night)

but what if Boston won by 5??

how is that not a complete loss?

[roasthawg]

i guess i'm missing how you would never take a complete loss using this technique. if you put 300 on boston -10.5 and put the other 30 on the Golden State money line you would only be fine if Boston covered or GS won outright (which i realize they did last night)

but what if Boston won by 5??

how is that not a complete loss?

Of course you can take a complete loss...and you're paying double the juice on your wins. The juice on the original wager of $300 is $27 if it wins...add that to the $30 "insurance" bet and you've payed $57 in juice. I'd advise against this strategy as there's no value in the dog money line if the bettor feels that the favorite will cover >53% of the time (which is the case or else the original wager wouldn't have been made in the first place).

[BrandonLaz]

CK I'm wracking my brain on this one!!

OkC are 13-3 ATS on the road and Wiz are 1-7 ATS last 8, but at the same time OkC are 2-9 ATS against the Wiz.

Man this game has me torn. I wanna roll with PC play but my gut is saying no!
Would appreciate some help guys

Same thing was happening to me on the play, because a lot of stats do point in favor of OKC in that one. Instead of wagering a lot on it though I just made a small play if that helps your decision at all. The PC Plays have been on a run and I went against the play once and it cost me a 6 team parlay so I will ride with them until they lose again.

[ragiche]

Hello there,I'm just want to share my pick and my only pick:

Hou -9 (I pick this one cause i watch the game yesterday that most of the calls goes against hou.I think it's because it's NO home turf and also a present for the fans.I just only predict that eventhough they are in btb, the referees will be on their side in their home turf as a late christmas present.Utah also played yesterday and won even without millsap,okur and boozer in the lineup,also i watch only a little bit of this game same as the hou/no game most of the calls on the home team.So my final prediction will be Hou winning by 13 above) Playing very hard (mostly all of my winnings this week,around 2 gs). I you all watch the game yesterday you'll understand.It's christmas and some of the teams haven't receive their christmas presents yet from the refs.(Is it a coincidence or the refs are starting to fix games again?Don't know?)

[ragiche]

Ck bro,

I know that we loss yesterday(No hard feelings from me).We can get them tonight.What do you think about my little research about this game Uta/Hou. I'm not looking to ats or su right now because of the calling of the refs.I'm not just looking for who is injured or something.I'm only watching the calls of the refs this past 2 days.and i think the refs are also involved in it.Just like the game of bos/lal we all thought that bos will win that game(we all knew that bos is much stronger and have a better lineup than the la,but the ref always on their side,no hard feelings on this one cause i will also pick bos even you didn't pick this game.Always appreciate your comments and also you guys out there.

[Wilforth]

Bucks -5
Nets +3

Those appear to me the best on today's menu.

[cocknocker]

shoe,

I said that you will win more times doing what I do than just voultarily giving that 10% away oon each and every bet. If Boson wins by 5, I take a loss, but AT LEAST I GAVE MYSELF A CHANCE TO WIN SOMETHING, instead of taking the straight up loss. What i am doing is I'm giving myself a chance. And if you have been followin basketball which i know that you have, you know as well as i do that usually when you lose, you lose your wager and your vigorish outright. With my way of oing thingsat leas you set yourself up to have a chance and if the dog happens to beat you, straight up then you may end up with more for a small play than you put up on the favorite side you bet. But as long as you are playing this over in your mind with virtual, and not real money it won't make sense. Once you startt doing it, then it ill more than make sense when you lose and the other side wins outright. You may not get all of them, but the ones that you do win that are +800 or +1000 and so on will more than take up for any loss you took. Nothing is 100%, but I bet you that i make more when i lose than 95% of the bettors on this board who fail to fade themselves in any fashion. Sure there are times when I take a loss both ways, but at least I tried something different with my vigorish instead of risking giving it away every play. Once you try it with rea money, it will be like a light switch just went off in your head. As long as you continue to think about indstead of doing it, then you will continue to have a much higher percentage of OUTRIGHT losses.

[cocknocker]

roasthawg

I never make a -110 bet for say $550.00 to win $500.00 I put up exactly $500.00 and fade myself with the other side for the $50.00 by either taking the points if there is no value or by taking the moneyline if there is good value. But sometimes I will take the -1400 moneyline too depending on if I feel that there's the best chance to get a coin. But it doesn't make sense to NOT do something for yourself with the juice that you would be giving away voluntarily. I have been doing this for 5 years now, and know what i am talking about and i know that i make a killing doing it.

Tampa bayy and the Raiders had a Super Bow a couple of years ago, and the Bucs were +330 on the money line. I put up 3 grand on the Raiders and and $300.00 on the Tampa Bay Moneyline. You already know the outcome of that game, now tell me did I end up with more money or less money after the game was over. And also tell me if I would have been better off just taking the Raiders for $3300.00 without doing something with my vigorish money for myself. Sure Tampa Bay could have lost under the spread. And that is true, but at least i was rewarded for TRYING something with my vigorish, and obviously it paid off.

[cocknocker]

I hope that everyone has gotten it by now. I am growing tired of repeating myself on this subject, and matter of fact, everyone just know that this is my practice, and it's just what i do. I am all about money management, and the proof is on my pockets. So nobody get upset when i suggest a heavy favorite and they lose outright, yet I indicate that i didn't lose a penny and matter of fact ended up with more money in losing my pick than winning it. Everybody has their own way of doing things, and this just hapens to be mine. Don't pay vigorish, do fade myself on a seperate book with the opposing teams moneyline or spread depending upon the value. I keep three books for a reason

[NYCKEV]

Sup CK? Hope u had a wonderful holiday and are making that paper. Any thoughts on FSU vs Wis? I'm leaning towards FSU -6 at the moment. GL to all

[roasthawg]

^I get what you're saying ck but it's a bad strategy imo. I'm sure you've had some success with it (like yesterday) but in the longrun it's a loser. There is only one right side to be on per game...if you feel one side is undervalued then the other side is overvalued by default. You thought the Celt's would cover that spread at least 53% of the time...that was the correct bet. The Warriors bet was a play that got lucky.

Here...you bet $500 and lay the other $50 on the W's. Your luck holds up and the C's cover. You pay $45 juice on the $500 and you donate the other $50 effectively doubling the juice you pay to $95. You now raise the bar of successful sports betting from the already tough 53% to an even tougher 55%.

Do all your homework and cap the games as accurately as possible then place your wager where the value is.

[cocknocker]

roasthawg,

luck must strike my way an awful lot because if you do your homework, more than 50% of dogs win outright over the length of a season, and i am sure that you already know that. Good luck doing what you do. i'm gonna keep on doing what i do. i was told that taking 1st inning wagers for a run to score was a stupid strategy and that it doesn't work too, by a guy similar to yourself, that came up all kinds of theories, numbers and percentages and so on. All that I know is that 30K later that guy was still saying that it didn't work, and that I should just stick to picking the winning sides, etc. And the beauty of it all was i did it right in his face posting my 1st inning wager for a run to score on each and every thread, and there was nothing he could do but keep saying daily tht it wasn't working as my profits soared through the roof. His name is dencol, a Covers' guy. He had the same disbeleiving attitude that you have. But I'm okay with that. You do things your way and i will do them mine.

When I start losing money in my fade account then i will take your advice. But if it keeps on growing for what this is the 4th year in a row, then i can't take your advice. It's just that simple IMO. Thanks anyway.

[roasthawg]

^Lol, more than 50% of dogs win outright?!? Good luck man.

[cocknocker]

Yes,

more than 50% of dogs combined win outright in sports wagering, what's so funny about that? I am talking about football, basketball, baseball (where the percentage is even higher than 50% by a mile, just ask Yankee fans), readers of this thread know that at the very least underdogs in college basketball whether by a single point or 20 points win outright at the least of 35-40%. And that's just in one sport. Combine them all and you will know that the favorite winning is not why the lights are on in Vegas, my good man. Trust me, I know what I am talking about, all jokes aside.

[roasthawg]

Yes,

more than 50% of dogs combined win outright in sports wagering, what's so funny about that? I am talking about football, basketball, baseball (where the percentage is even higher than 50% by a mile, just ask Yankee fans), readers of this thread know that at the very least underdogs in college basketball whether by a single point or 20 points win outright at the least of 35-40%. And that's just in one sport. Combine them all and you will know that the favorite winning is not why the lights are on in Vegas, my good man. Trust me, I know what I am talking about, all jokes aside.

Yeah, it took me all of 10 seconds to check the last 15 years worth of dogs in the NBA in my db...they've won outright <31% of the time. It's all good if you have a theory and you're sticking to it but don't make stuff up.

[cocknocker]

Okay so what is it in college football, college basketball, baseball, professional football, college basketball, etc and then come back and tell me I'm wrong agan, I said ALL not some, you did 1/6th of your homework and come back talking lame about just basketball. Do ALL ot some of your homework. You are a funny guy. You even have quoted my post with all of the sports in it and pidgeonholed basketball only as if that's the only sport i do it in. Don't make stuff up

[peterpan19]

wv winning by 1 pt
ouch

[cocknocker]

roasthawg

You did notice the word COMBINED didn't you? I am starting to smell a hater in the room.

[peterpan19]

ck
thoughts on wisc vs florida ?
slight lean to wisc and the pts