lets get money guys
-
Comment -
Just to show why everybody needs their own spreadsheets . For some of us "S4 B bet wins tonight" is still an "A" bet because we pushed the original "A" game. So this is S4A2 for us.Washington/Detriot game:
S4 B bet wins tonight, the S1 A bet will become a B bet tomorrow.
S1 A bet wins tonight, the S4 B bet will become a C bet tomorrow.
S4 winning tonight would be best.Comment -
Sports betting reminds me of poker some times in terms of position. Its a huge factor in poker, more important than cards at times. There was a sng video I watched where they cover up their cards and just use position to win the tourney. In comparison we all know this system works, so if you cover up the teams you are betting on, but know what position they are, then just bet the correct amounts. At the end of the month or tourney if you will, your account will be up 30% or some thing a long those lines.
I know grinder knows what i am talking about. Blind betting and just check your account balance once in a while and let the system do the work for you basically. stop worrying about all the details and just know it works.Comment -
Today is really the end of the world...for my bookie!
Thanks Stifler!
Comment -
Stifler is non-stop killin' it!
Way to go!Comment -
Here's what I end up with (using $10 units and -110 lines to keep things simple):
I lost Game A on Orlando -7.5, risking $11 to win $10.
Game B now calls for betting on Detroit: $23.10 to win $21.00
Game A of another series calls for betting on Washington: $11.00 to win $10.00.
Placing both of these bets effectively creates the following bet: $13.10 to win $10.00.
I figure this because if Detroit loses you win $10.00 but lose $23.10, thus losing $13.10 (your risk). If Detroit wins, you win $21.00 but lose $11.00, thus winning $10 (your reward).
All that you do by betting both teams is to turn a -110 bet on Detroit into a -131 bet on Detroit simply to make your betting easier for the next game. This makes no sense, just as betting $10.00 on both sides of a game will lose you $1.00 every time. So here's what I do...
Instead of placing both of these bets, I subtract $10.00 from $21.00,
and bet on Detroit -- $12.10 to win $11.00.
Remember, you bet $13.10 to win $10.00 I'm betting a dollar less to win a dollar more, so I'm clearly at an advantage.
Now, let's continue as if Detroit wins.
You bet on Washington on the B game, $23.10 to win $21.00.
I bet on Washington on the B game, $23.10 to win $21.00 (I act as if bet -110 on the A game and lost).
Again, to keep it simple, we'll assume it ends there and we win.
As we can see, I won $21 total and you won $20 total, and I risked less than you to do it. If desired to just win 2 units from these two series instead and have less juice than you, I would have bet to win $20 on Washington bet B. Either way it doesn't matter, I choose to take most of the money I saved on the series that WIN, but you could instead play to win the same amount, and then you instead save money on the series that LOSE.
Either in a winning or a losing scenario, this way is better. I hope I laid this out clearly so you understand, because I think you're very wrong on this one and you end up wasting a lot of money because of it over time.Last edited by CrazyCarl; 12-21-12, 10:42 PM.Comment -
I'm getting what the system means so far. Loving the S4 picks. I've won 3/3 already. (OKC, Miami and Detroit picks) I even won a parlay yesterday because of the Miami pick.
I just want to clarify something. What's the difference between S1 and S2?
S1: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak.
S2: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak. Divide in home/road games.
The only difference I saw was "Divide in home/road games." What does that mean? And also, the winning/losing streak being described here is about the ATS winning/losing streak right? Not the normal winning/losing streak?Comment -
Okay since every1 is asleep and I currently have time I'll try my best to explain it to you in the mostly simplest way, here we go...
For an S2, I think giving you an example is most easiest I'm hoping. The example will be on Boston. go here covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2012-2013/team404169.html check out these dates 12/08, 12/05, & 11/30. If you noticed its all "W" under ATS and all the games are @home. Now since it's all "W" and @home we follow that streak. So the next game we would bet on Boston @home is 12/12/2012. I hope this helps you to have a better understanding
Last edited by Asset; 12-21-12, 11:40 PM.Comment -
DAMN YO ASSET - beat me too it.
Correct - always ATS
S2 is confusing word wise - S1 is linear while S2 is dividing all AWAY and HOME games into two columns.
Away Win
Away WIn
Home Lose
Away Win
you now have a S2 series because of three straight AWAY Wins (or losses, does not matter).
CrazyCarl - a lot of word math there and I get your point . . . . what worries me is the word risk. Does not matter how much you risk. The bottom line is how much you win. How much you risk is meaningless.
IF you bet -110 to win 100 on 100 games and won all 100 you would win 100 units
If you bet -200 on 100 games on 100 games and you won them all you would win 100 units.
Backtested the system is 620-13. (effectively 620-52) Not 100% but 92.2%
When you win 92.2% of the time is the risk of screwing up your calculations while looking at 4 books and 8 lines worth maybe wasting a few bucks? When HOPING to win 58% of the time YEA it is. But at 92% is it?
I think that is the key here. You are micro managing a macro system. I'm not doubting your math as I have the same post as you but sometimes it pays to just keep it simple. Worrying about juice in a Chase, and I say this with 40 years of handicapping under my belt so it goes against ALL my grains, is not worth it.
And frankly - I could give you a good argument for buying a 1/2 point on EVERY game in a chase, but that is a different argument.
BTW - that is basically what I do . . what you prescribed above on quiet days! On days when I'm dealing with 7 lines, 4 books and 4 labbys - screw it!Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-22-12, 12:00 AM.Comment -
@Grinder: And I <3 you too
@gamewinninglv: I borrowed your thought out, well written little paragraph, I hope you don't mind
IMPORTANT: If you are new to this thread or if you don't know what's going on. Please go topage 46 and readpost # 1586 for a quick understanding BEFORE posting any questions/comments that may already been covered in that post. Thank you for your cooperation and have a Great Day!!!Comment -
I don't mind Asset, it's my pleasure that you are using it. It's for the better of the thread i believe.
IMPORTANT: If you are new to this thread or if you don't know what's going on. Please go topage 46 and read post # 1586 for a quick understanding BEFORE posting any questions/comments that may already been covered in that post. Thank you for your cooperation and have a Great Day!!!Comment -
Would a direct link help?
IMPORTANT: If you are new to this thread or if you don't know what's going on, please go to >>>post #1586<<< for a quick understanding BEFORE posting any questions/comments that may already been covered in that post. Thank you for your cooperation and have a Great Day!!!Comment -
Good luck allComment -
records:
S1: W 27 | L 1 (+8,55 units)
S2: W 13 | L 0 (+13,00 units)
S3: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
S4: W 19 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
pending:
- S1 Det fade, B Bet on 22.12.2012
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
Comment -
Your right when ur not thinking of winning 2 units overall for those 2 series. Your bet structure would put out more than 2 units overall (if both series will be winner). For myself i know im paying something extra on those series, but i dont care at all. If both series will be winner i end up adding 2 units overall. Im just to lazy to do the maths on those series, cause i know playing both sides the way im doing it will end in +2 units. Thats the main goal overall. Doing the math right will put some extra cash (in ur case) in the pocket or reduce the juice on losing series a little bit. For me too much drama for such a small profit. Im fine winning 2 units overall, a losing series will still be -18,45 units. Im fine with that.
Nevertheless, the bet structure i posted a page before would end in winning 2 units overall for those 2 series with reduced juiced throughout the upcoming bet stages.Comment -
@ crazy carl - Question (today im starting the questions
):
Just a what if scenario...
What would u do if 2 D bets facing each other?
I always try to hit the middle in those crossover games to stand a chance winning both games. Lets say a line opend @ -2.5 for the home team. I putting in my wager for the first team. Line starts to move afterwards and closes @ -3.5. Im going to place my bet on the other team +3.5. Game ends with a point differential of exact 3. Im going to win both series, while ur probably taking a series loss. I know its just theory, but anything can happen.Comment -
Hey Stifler,
nice system u have here! I am new to this one and I would like to know if Washington -1 is good for tonight, or are u going to wait for a better line??
or better question: when are u going to post the games for today?
greetings and BOL
kilrathiComment -
ah cool. thx man. so i will wait and try to come back later to check out what games are on for today!Comment -
I do as I always would, subtract them from each other, which in this case would mean not betting.@ crazy carl - Question (today im starting the questions):
Just a what if scenario...
What would u do if 2 D bets facing each other?
I always try to hit the middle in those crossover games to stand a chance winning both games. Lets say a line opend @ -2.5 for the home team. I putting in my wager for the first team. Line starts to move afterwards and closes @ -3.5. Im going to place my bet on the other team +3.5. Game ends with a point differential of exact 3. Im going to win both series, while ur probably taking a series loss. I know its just theory, but anything can happen.
Yes, you can possibly middle or even push one and win one, if you guess which way the line will move, and then be lucky enough to actually hit the middle. But, if I could accurately predict line movement, I wouldn't bother with playing a system in the first place.Last edited by CrazyCarl; 12-22-12, 08:35 AM.Comment -
This is the point I made a month ago when your reply was, "don't worry about it, it only happens once every 11 years". If I see that two teams have a chance to face each other in their "D" bets, I will play NEITHER series until one series gets a win. At that point, I will pick up the other series for a normal "B" bet amount (2 units/no juice), and finish that series at regular amounts. This way I will still win my 2 units, and never risk the "D" bet disaster. Yes, there ia a chance that both games will win their "A" bet and I will not get either unit. But if it is as rare as you say, that won't be too often, and to me, is the safer way to play it.@ crazy carl - Question (today im starting the questions):
Just a what if scenario...
What would u do if 2 D bets facing each other?
I always try to hit the middle in those crossover games to stand a chance winning both games. Lets say a line opend @ -2.5 for the home team. I putting in my wager for the first team. Line starts to move afterwards and closes @ -3.5. Im going to place my bet on the other team +3.5. Game ends with a point differential of exact 3. Im going to win both series, while ur probably taking a series loss. I know its just theory, but anything can happen.
If two teams face each other on "D", that means each series has lost at least three games. One team will win "D", meaning the other team will lose (outside of a push). If I start my chase at this point (for the "B" bet amount), this gives me three more chances to win this bet, technically making it a 7 game chase on that series at the price of a 4 game chase, since the first 4 lost. Since your system is so strong as a 4 game chase, imagine how strong it would be as a 7 game chase if a 7 game chase was affordable, which in this example, it would be. Also if I was to lose the next three games, my loss would cost less than a normal loss because I started the series at 2 units and not 2.1 which would be the price of a normal "B" betLast edited by Wallco99; 12-22-12, 10:51 AM.Comment -
I could have used another scenario (lets say 2 B bets facing each other aswell). Those 11 years are just a random number, i dont have a clue how often this happens. I just cant see that happening that often at all.
All i wanted to say is that those who subtract those crossover games should be carefull watching their numbers. Im fine with betting both sides, cause i will get that +1unit on a winning series.Comment -
I'm new to this thread and I am reading post 1586. S1 is very clear. S2 I don't understand because it says divide in home-road games. I don't understand that so I read the explanation which I believe says something like home and road games don't make a difference. At least that's how I understood it which then makes it exactly the same as S1. Can someone clarify this for me please?Comment -
The only reason a person would play both sides of a game, knowing one will lose, is if that person is not good at math or does not know how to keep track of games. And if either of these are the case, that person should not be risking hundreds, or even thousands, of dollars wagering on sports systems. If both ways net you the same profit and one way costs you more on a loss than the other, then why in the hell would anyone recommend placing bets the more costly way? It really is not that hard to keep track of. My God, if a person can figure out this extremely complicated system that we are playing in here, then I am pretty sure they can figure out how to skip occasional bets on their spreadsheet and not lose track of what the next bet should be. And if they can't, then I restress the point that they should not be wagering on sports. Catering to the newbies and people who don't understand is one thing, but to suggest playing both sides of a game, with the same line on both sides, at any time in any sport, is foolish.Comment -
For the s2, break the entire season into two halves, ALL home games being one half, and ALL road games being the other half. For s2 plays, we will check the previous 3 road games and the previous 3 homes games. If the past three road games were wins, then the next four times that team has a road game we will bet on that team. If the past three road games were losses, we will fade that team on the next four road games. The same applies for all the home games. Three previous wins at home we bet them on the next four at home, 3 losses we fade them.
Now it's not always as simple as looking at the last three home/road games. You may look at the schedule and see the team lost their last three at home, or road, or won them, or whatever. You must then look at the sheet of teams that qualify for each system, in post #1586, to see if this team is on that list. Also for example, you may look at a team and notice it lost it's last three home games. You may have checked the list and it was a qualifying team. You may at that point assume it is a new bet, but you could be wrong. You must look further back to see how long that home/road winning/losing streak has been. If it was a 4 game home winning streak, this would not be an "A" bet. What would have happened is our series actually would have started on the prior home game. If the team we bet on lost, this would be our "B" bet. If the team we bet on won, the series would be over, and we would not be betting this team again unless the streak continues long enough to make it a play again. I can't remember if that would be after the sixth or seventh game. I don't know if the game that wins counts toward the streak or not. It's probably in post #1586, but maybe someone else could clarify if not. Hopefully this helps.Last edited by Wallco99; 12-22-12, 12:55 PM.Comment -
i tried that 4Q system for the first time last night in the charlotte/golden state game... it lost
Comment -
System cant win every game. Bet had a shot to push, but somebody on Charlotte missed their second FT with a few seconds left. Guess you missed out on the Bulls-Knicks, because that 4Q bet won.Comment -
i used a moneyline on sportsbook.. what do you all use? what was the push, i just did straight money line and they lost by 2 in the 4thComment -
Bookmaker had Charlotte +1. Not sure how they pick their games for live-play, they have Bulls-Hawks and Suns-Blazers as the two games for tonite.
Edit: Looking at it:
Bulls-Hawks: Probably the best of the 7 earlier games.
Suns-Blazers: NBAtv game.Last edited by bigtymer56; 12-22-12, 01:59 PM.Comment -
just WAS tonight?Comment
