nba chase 12/13

[Stifler]

05.12.2012

S1

(B Bet) SA: Spurs -5,5 1,10u | Spurs -8,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Den fade: Atlanta -1 1,10u
(A Bet) Sac fade: Toronto - line not up yet

S2

(A Bet) Orl: Orlando +8,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Tor fade: Denver -10 1,10u | Sacramento - line not up yet
(A Bet) GS fade: Detroit - waiting on line movement


As i said Denver should be removed from the S1 list and i will just make situational series bets when i feel like this is a good series. Im liking them on the fade here for the next 4 games.

________________________________________ ______________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

[Grinder12000]

As i said Denver should be removed from the S1 list and i will just make situational series bets when i feel like this is a good series. Im liking them on the fade here for the next 4 games.

Appreciate it and I like that you are not totally disqualifying the team. Denver starts a 5 game 8 day road trip against Non-Conference competition with a Division game the last game of the trip.

[TB12]

Okay I've read a bunch of posts from this thread, I will be betting all the bold picks from Stifler's post? except for the B bets because I just started tailing him last night. Thanks guys!

[Asset]

Okay I've read a bunch of posts from this thread, I will be betting all the bold picks from Stifler's post? except for the B bets because I just started tailing him last night. Thanks guys!

You could still jump on the "B Bet"...but it's really up to you Normally I like Stif's S4s and S3s...

[TB12]

Sounds good thank you!

[tr4sh]

Based on how this system works, the series have a high chance of winning which means that jumping on any currently running series is probably the right move. Only tweak I'd do if I were you is to risk 1 unit on my first bet of a currently ongoing series instead of the units stifler posted and follow that. ie, if you jump onto a series at C bet, I'd risk 1.1 unit at C bet and 2.31 units at D bet.

[Grinder12000]

Atlanta is getting pounded. I got -1 but it's at -2 at some places and ain't coming down.

More people are betting Milwaukee +8.5 then SA -8.5

Surprised I got Detroit at +1.5

[Asset]

The Detroit game looks really good...

[Asset]

Atlanta is getting pounded. I got -1 but it's at -2 at some places and ain't coming down.

More people are betting Milwaukee +8.5 then SA -8.5

Surprised I got Detroit at +1.5

Wow!! wtf how you get +1.5...dam you

[Grinder12000]

Bovada - I normally get the opening lines at Intertops so on one book I got +1 and then went to check Bovada who normally have horrible lines and WOW +1.5???

I gotta find a good book with a good bonus that is not just low juice but free plays AND is OK for Americans.

The good old days of REAL bonuses are gone. I remember the days of (OMG - I sound like an old timer LOL) 100% bonus, pick ONE game but leave your money in your account for 30 days! OR 100% and play 30 hands of poker. Bonus whoring was awesome.

[Asset]

Bovada - I normally get the opening lines at Intertops so on one book I got +1 and then went to check Bovada who normally have horrible lines and WOW +1.5???

I gotta find a good book with a good bonus that is not just low juice but free plays AND is OK for Americans.

The good old days of REAL bonuses are gone. I remember the days of (OMG - I sound like an old timer LOL) 100% bonus, pick ONE game but leave your money in your account for 30 days! OR 100% and play 30 hands of poker. Bonus whoring was awesome.

Gratz, I just checked and they're @ pk

Well anywayz guys/gals BOL on today games Please not too much drama today

[TB12]

Should I play these picks even though the lines aren't the same as what Stifler displayed?

[Asset]

Should I play these picks even though the lines aren't the same as what Stifler displayed?

This system is based on the closing line @ covers.com, so basically you could wait or just place your bets. Stif is placing his bets early because he thinks its a good line.

Btw, just FYI mines are not the same as his so...

[TB12]

Okay thanks, and we dont buy 1/2 or full points in this system right?

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Bovada - I normally get the opening lines at Intertops so on one book I got +1 and then went to check Bovada who normally have horrible lines and WOW +1.5???

I gotta find a good book with a good bonus that is not just low juice but free plays AND is OK for Americans.

The good old days of REAL bonuses are gone. I remember the days of (OMG - I sound like an old timer LOL) 100% bonus, pick ONE game but leave your money in your account for 30 days! OR 100% and play 30 hands of poker. Bonus whoring was awesome.

I'm at youwager.com. First Fidelity. I've been with them for well over a decade. They post winnings to your account within minutes of the game ending. I get bonus of 1pt per wager, 30 pts active a week, plus deposit bonuses etc. I'm up over a 1000 points which equals a $30 free play. I'm shooting for 2000 points and a $75 free play hopefully for the playoffs. If NHL gets off the ground, maybe I'll make it. Oh, minimum bet is $2, I know this because that's my one "Unit". Big "Whale" here!!!! PM me if ya like it, I get a buddy ref too.

DISCLAIMER. No, I don't work for them, blah blah blah. He asked, that's all. I don't get paid to put out their name.

[Asset]

Okay thanks, and we dont buy 1/2 or full points in this system right?

Nope = correct!!

[Stifler]

- Toronto line updated

05.12.2012

S1

(B Bet) SA: Spurs -5,5 1,10u | Spurs -8,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Den fade: Atlanta -1 1,10u
(A Bet) Sac fade: Toronto +2,5 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Orl: Orlando +8,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Tor fade: Denver -10 1,10u | Sacramento - line not up yet
(A Bet) GS fade: Detroit - waiting on line movement

[Stifler]

- fully updated.

05.12.2012

S1

(B Bet) SA: Spurs -5,5 1,10u | Spurs -8,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Den fade: Atlanta -1 1,10u
(A Bet) Sac fade: Toronto +2,5 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Orl: Orlando +8,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Tor fade: Denver -10 1,10u | Sacramento -2,5 2,31u
(A Bet) GS fade: Detroit -1 1,10u

[Grinder12000]

Not trying to cause a problem but maybe make your job easier. If you are using the closing line at Covers for the system, why even post a line until after the game is played or underway.

We already have players of the system in different parts of the chase as we we all have different lines.

[TB12]

I played all games tonight and realized that Sacto and Toronto are playing each other but I already wagered my 3 units... was I supposed too?

[J.M. Disciple]

I played all games tonight and realized that Sacto and Toronto are playing each other but I already wagered my 3 units... was I supposed too?

Probably just bet 1.1u on Tor and add an additional unit to whatever team losses.

You can almost just bet this system blind and do not worry about who is playing who. Just login, look at the bets, place your bets and forget about it.

[mrk77]

I played all games tonight and realized that Sacto and Toronto are playing each other but I already wagered my 3 units... was I supposed too?

yup, two separate series, one is a Toronto fade, the other a Sacramento fade. If let's say Toronto wins, we continue to fade them next game but the Sacramento fade is done, and vice versa

[TB12]

Great thanks for the speedy responses, it makes sense now but didn't when I was entering my wagers.

[Grinder12000]

I played all games tonight and realized that Sacto and Toronto are playing each other but I already wagered my 3 units... was I supposed too?

this has been a topic of contention for a while now - one side (my side) says you can subtract one from the other and just keep track on your own books.

The other side says play both because the system basically, in theory, only wins.

Do what you feel comfortable with as there is not right or wrong answer.

And I know there have been arguments about juice and I have the final answer.

It really just how you look at it.

Pay juice only in a loss - The gambler has a target amount he wants to win, which is independent of the presence or absence of vigorish. The winner has no net difference since he is up 100 either way. So the loser pays the full vigorish of 10 under this assumption.

Pay juice only in a win. The gambler has a given amount he is willing to risk, independent of vigorish. The winner pays the full vigorish under this assumption.

Therefore - for THIS System you only pay juice if you lose so playing BOTH sides is probably the best way to go.

[TB12]

this has been a topic of contention for a while now - one side (my side) says you can subtract one from the other and just keep track on your own books.

The other side says play both because the system basically, in theory, only wins.

Do what you feel comfortable with as there is not right or wrong answer.

And I know there have been arguments about juice and I have the final answer.

It really just how you look at it.

Pay juice only in a loss - The gambler has a target amount he wants to win, which is independent of the presence or absence of vigorish. The winner. r has no net difference since he is up 100 either way. So the loser pays the full vigorish of 10 under this assumption.

Pay juice only in a win. The gambler has a given amount he is willing to risk, independent of vigorish. The winner pays the full vigorish under this assumption.

Therefore - for THIS System you only pay juice if you lose so playing BOTH sides is probably the best way to go.

Wow great explanation!

[Grinder12000]

Wow great explanation!

Wikipedia. Vigorish

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Pay juice only in a win. The gambler has a given amount he is willing to risk, independent of vigorish. The winner pays the full vigorish under this assumption.

The only way I can figure this statement out is...I have $20 I'm willing to risk, but I can only bet $18.XX cause of the vig. Is that it? If so, if the wager wins, I'm up $18.xx and I got the $20 back too. How is vig paid here? I'm not being a wiseas*, I really don't see it.

Added: I can see where the ODDS could make your winnings smaller. If you risk $20 @ -200, you only win $10. The cost of the vig is making it so you don't win as much. But in the end, the bookie gets nothing from you.

[Grinder12000]

You have $20 you are willing to risk - if you lose you lose 20. You pay no juice. If you win you only win 18.2 so you are paying 1.8 to the bookie as payment to place the bet.

Just a different way to look at the whole juice thing. Not a big deal.

For this chase I believe the other side is correct.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Grinder....Dat's what I thought. I'm trying different things with 4 different sports, I play NFL, CFB, CBB, and NBA all different. Man, I'm gonna miss CFB. Made a bundle considering the size of my bets!!!

[jimmy007oc]

cant believe that Spurs cover the spread

[fooubar]

Therefore - for THIS System you only pay juice if you lose so playing BOTH sides is probably the best way to go.

No it's not.
You guys are looking at this from the wrong angle.

Because the lines are -110 (or Pinny -105) your stake is not 1u but 1.1u (1.05u).
The higher the juice the higher your D bet will be in the end.

Say there was no juice, you would bet A 1u, B 2u, C 4u, D 8u notice the huge difference juice makes?
Instead of a 8u D bet you have to play a 10.19u bet.

If a D bet loses you have lost 18.45u (instead of 15u when you would not have to pay juice).

So if you can save juice along the way it's best to do it, since your losses will be smaller.
You can also always bet the fixed (-110 Stifler uses) A, B, C, D bets so your wins will be bigger.

Say you have an A bet on both sides, best is to skip it and just make the B bet as normal the next time around, you will win more than betting both A bets and then making the B bet.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Say you have an A bet on both sides, best is to skip it and just make the B bet as normal the next time around, you will win more than betting both A bets and then making the B bet.

That's what I do. However, if one's a B, I play it as I have $ invested in it. If B wins, I play the other side (which WAS an A) as my own "A" even though it's a "B" the next game.

To each his own.

[fooubar]

That's what I do. However, if one's a B, I play it as I have $ invested in it. If B wins, I play the other side (which WAS an A) as my own "A" even though it's a "B" the next game.

To each his own.

That is quite a good way to go about it, as B, C, D bets are supposed to have a higher winning chance than the bets earlier in the series.

[TB12]

So far so good with this system, thank you Stifler for everything you do. I'm crossing my fingers that the NHL ends this lockout, it is my favorite sport. Does this system work in that league as well?

[mrk77]

You have $20 you are willing to risk - if you lose you lose 20. You pay no juice. If you win you only win 18.2 so you are paying 1.8 to the bookie as payment to place the bet.

Just a different way to look at the whole juice thing. Not a big deal.

For this chase I believe the other side is correct.

Your bet is $18.2, your risk is $20. If you win, you win the $18 you bet, you won't win $20 betting $18 on -110