A4K's 2012.2013 NBA thread...mainly totals

[A4K]

Thanks for the plays A4K. I love the Heat play and your analysis was spot on. You may want to take a look at the Wolves/Dalls under. There are significant injuries on both sides and the total has dropped by 3 points since the opening line while 63% of the public is on the over. Same line movement in that Portland game.

Anyways, GL!

GREAT CALL! That was not close to going over. I wish I would've arrived home earlier.

[Murray Rothbard]

Thanks. I wish I would of taken that Portland under as well. Instead I took the spread and their about to lose. Weak.

[A4K]

Thanks. I wish I would of taken that Portland under as well. Instead I took the spread and their about to lose. Weak.

This often happens to me. My subconscious mind gives me a selection and I ignore it to go with a "logical" selection. I need to hone in on listening to that inner voice.

[celtics3388]

seems like you put in a lot of working capping the nba A4K - would love to hear your thoughts on the Raptors/Pacers tonight if you got the time

[A4K]

seems like you put in a lot of working capping the nba A4K - would love to hear your thoughts on the Raptors/Pacers tonight if you got the time

Looking at that game, right now. The only thing that scares me is the amount of minutes that the Raptors played last night. I'll keep you posted.

[celtics3388]

Looking at that game, right now. The only thing that scares me is the amount of minutes that the Raptors played last night. I'll keep you posted.

sounds good, i'll check in later

[A4K]

sounds good, i'll check in later

I don't particularly care for this game, but if you put a gun to my head, I'd take the OVER 184.5 and the Raptors with the points. 9.5 is a lot of points to cover. I don't care how tough Indiana is at home.

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PLAY FOR ME. Just offering my opinion.

[celtics3388]

I don't particularly care for this game, but if you put a gun to my head, I'd take the OVER 184.5 and the Raptors with the points. 9.5 is a lot of points to cover. I don't care how tough Indiana is at home.

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PLAY FOR ME. Just offering my opinion.

haha well I layed the 9 and played under 185.5 for a unit each. I can't see how Toronto scores too many points here coming in on the second leg of a back-to-back where the first game went to 3OT's - especially with Fields and Lowry out. I agree 9 is alot to lay against anyone with Indy this year but I think if they play to their potential this could be blowout city with this being a pretty terrible spot for the Raps. They are learning how to play offensively without Granger and I'm thinking this is the spot where they breakout. They have been solid defensively all year and I don't see why that wouldn't continue against Toronto.

Sorry about clogging up your thread bro I just like to talk through some games and u seem to be putting in the work over here. BOL with your plays

[A4K]

haha well I layed the 9 and played under 185.5 for a unit each. I can't see how Toronto scores too many points here coming in on the second leg of a back-to-back where the first game went to 3OT's - especially with Fields and Lowry out. I agree 9 is alot to lay against anyone with Indy this year but I think if they play to their potential this could be blowout city with this being a pretty terrible spot for the Raps. They are learning how to play offensively without Granger and I'm thinking this is the spot where they breakout. They have been solid defensively all year and I don't see why that wouldn't continue against Toronto.

Sorry about clogging up your thread bro I just like to talk through some games and u seem to be putting in the work over here. BOL with your plays

No worries. You bring up some good points. Like I said, I'm not particularly fond of this game for some of the reasons you mention. I'm guessing Indiana will score well above their season average because Toronto refuses to play defense. The real question is whether or not Toronto will have any energy or life tonight on the offensive side of the court. Like you said, Indiana is a solid team on the defensive end.

Best of luck, tonight.

[Murray Rothbard]

A4K, what are your thoughts on the Charlotte game? The total moved up a couple points since the opener (188-190) yet a slight majority of the public is on the under. On the other hand, the spread has remained firm at 2 while 68% of the public is on Charlotte.

[A4K]

A4K, what are your thoughts on the Charlotte game? The total moved up a couple points since the opener (188-190) yet a slight majority of the public is on the under. On the other hand, the spread has remained firm at 2 while 68% of the public is on Charlotte.

I don't care for this game, two scrub teams. If I had to bet, I'd take the Wizards and the points. They've been awfully close to winning their first game against some good teams. I also like the under, but I'd need the line to climb to around 193 to feel comfortable.

[Murray Rothbard]

I don't care for this game, two scrub teams. If I had to bet, I'd take the Wizards and the points. They've been awfully close to winning their first game against some good teams. I also like the under, but I'd need the line to climb to around 193 to feel comfortable.

Thanks for your input. Given the LM (or lack thereof) I would have to say Washington is probably a safe bet tonight.

[A4K]

Thanks for your input. Given the LM (or lack thereof) I would have to say Washington is probably a safe bet tonight.

Yeah, judging by their results, they've had a shot at winning most of their games and faltered, but those were against some solid teams. Charlotte may have 3 wins, but I believe they are on the same tier as the Wizards in terms of talent.

[Murray Rothbard]

Yeah, judging by their results, they've had a shot at winning most of their games and faltered, but those were against some solid teams. Charlotte may have 3 wins, but I believe they are on the same tier as the Wizards in terms of talent.

Yeah, and Charlotte had a few notable injuries from what I remember but I'm not sure if those players are still out (Im thinking Rivers and Davis?). If so, that could be the reason for the lack of LM.

[A4K]

Yeah, and Charlotte had a few notable injuries from what I remember but I'm not sure if those players are still out (Im thinking Rivers and Davis?). If so, that could be the reason for the lack of LM.

Bobkittens are not showing any notable injuries on scoresandodds.com

[celtics3388]

Yeah, and Charlotte had a few notable injuries from what I remember but I'm not sure if those players are still out (Im thinking Rivers and Davis?). If so, that could be the reason for the lack of LM.

Lol the Hornets haven't been in Charlotte for like 10 years

[A4K]

Lol the Hornets haven't been in Charlotte for like 10 years

Lol, Murray is like me, I switch those two in my mind, all the time. I blame this problem on the NBA for moving teams like they are mobile homes.

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 7 - 4 - 1 ~ 63.63% win rate

Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Totals: 2 - 1 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +2.6

Up/Down $$: +$351.34

Bankroll: $5,351.34
________________________________________ _____________
Play for 11/13/2012.....

Blazers @ KingsUNDER 197

$160.54 to win $145.95

No Demarcus Cousins, both teams struggling to score, Blazers somewhat improving on the defensive end.

[Murray Rothbard]

Lol the Hornets haven't been in Charlotte for like 10 years

ROFL, my bad, those two teams always get me lol.

Lol, Murray is like me, I switch those two in my mind, all the time. I blame this problem on the NBA for moving teams like they are mobile homes.

Yeah FU NBA!

Btw, I just took the Wizards (they're still in Washington right? ) +2. My theory tells me take the Wizards but my gut is saying don't touch these two terrible teams. Hope it doesn't come back to bite me but you already know, Scared Money Dont Make Money!

[A4K]

________________________________________ _____________
Play for 11/13/2012.....

Blazers @ Kings UNDER 197

$160.54 to win $145.95

No Demarcus Cousins, both teams struggling to score, Blazers somewhat improving on the defensive end.

Nailed it, but I'm not happy with the ending. None of the first three quarters came close to 50 points and then all of a sudden the game turned into street jam '13 and they score 57 in the 4th. Total bullsh!t. Happy I cashed, but sometimes you see teams throw in the towel and play street-ball for no apparent reason. Flagrant fouls and total lack of defense ensued. Anyways, I shouldn't complain so much about a win.

Updated Record:

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 8 - 4 - 1 ~ ~~66.67% win rate

Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Totals: 3 - 1 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.6

Up/Down $$: +$497.29

Bankroll: $5,497.29

[TR35]

Nice win. The 4th quarter was bs.

[A4K]

Nice win. The 4th quarter was bs.

Yeah, that's the modern NBA. In blowout games, each team empty's their bench and the 2nd and 3rd string scrubs think they have to prove how great they think they are. They end up shooting 3-ball after 3-ball and refusing to play any defense. Ultimately, scoring and dunking becomes the priority and real basketball goes out the window.

[Murray Rothbard]

Nice hit A4K, who you got tonight?

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 8 - 4 - 1 ~ ~~66.67% win rate

Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Totals: 3 - 1 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.6

Up/Down $$: +$497.29

Bankroll: $5,497.29
________________________________________ ______________________________
Plays for 11/14/2012.....

#1 Bulls @ Suns UNDER 191.5

$164.92 to win $149.93


#2 Pacers @ Bucks -4.5

$164.92 to win $149.93

Bucks need a home win, Indiana struggling to score without their top guy.

Bulls are a much better team than the Suns and their defense should step up tonight.

[TR35]

Good pick with Bucks. I had them -4. I didn't see the Bulls under until now. Just got home. Maybe I will take 2nd half under.

[A4K]

Good pick with Bucks. I had them -4. I didn't see the Bulls under until now. Just got home. Maybe I will take 2nd half under.

LOL, probably better that you missed the second play. I don't know where my head was at. The Bulls are not anywhere near the defenders they were last year.

[A4K]

________________________________________ ______________________________
Plays for 11/14/2012.....

#1 Bulls @ Suns UNDER 191.5

$164.92 to win $149.93


#2 Pacers @ Bucks -4.5

$164.92 to win $149.93

Bucks need a home win, Indiana struggling to score without their top guy.

Bulls are a much better team than the Suns and their defense should step up tonight.

Well, the Bucks selection went better than expected and the Bulls UNDER was NOT close. I'm really disappointed in the Bulls on the defensive end. Guess I need to let go of my perception of them as a hard nosed defensive team. Lesson learned, that was last season. Anyways, not too upset about eating a lil juice on the day. Overall, I think I have a good feel for the NBA, at the moment. Will start a NCAA BB thread next week.


Updated Record:

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 9 - 5 - 1 ~ ~~64.29% win rate

Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Totals: 3 - 2 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.5

Up/Down $$: +$482.30

Bankroll: $5,482.30

[celtics3388]

Bulls are still a hard-nosed defensive team when they have to be AK, they are just much better at home and its hard to focus on D when the team you are playing plays zero defense whatsoever

[A4K]

Bulls are still a hard-nosed defensive team when they have to be AK, they are just much better at home and its hard to focus on D when the team you are playing plays zero defense whatsoever

You make a good point. Sometimes teams drop to the level of their competition on the defensive end.

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 9 - 5 - 1 ~ ~~64.29% win rate

Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Totals: 3 - 2 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.5

Up/Down $$: +$482.30

Bankroll: $5,482.30
________________________________________ _______________

Plays for 11/15/2012....

Knicks @ Spurs UNDER 197

$164.47 TO WIN $149.52

The total keeps moving upwards, but I suspect that each team will step up on the defensive end. Knicks don't want to turn this into a track meet and neither do the Spurs. I expect a lot of half-court sets without many points being scored in transition.

[A4K]

Glad I got down at 197. Line has since dropped to 195.5.

[A4K]

FML, 64 1st quarter points! Hope that pace comes to a screeching halt. I read this game wrong. Neither team is playing an ounce of defense. 64 points scored in the 1st quarter and 15 scored in the last 2:30 of the second quarter. Going to lay off totals for awhile.

[A4K]

________________________________________ _______________

Plays for 11/15/2012....

Knicks @ Spurs UNDER 197

$164.47 TO WIN $149.52 LOSS

The total keeps moving upwards, but I suspect that each team will step up on the defensive end. Knicks don't want to turn this into a track meet and neither do the Spurs. I expect a lot of half-court sets without many points being scored in transition.

That first quarter killed me. I can live with the other three, but 64 points in one quarter is crazy for two teams of this caliber. Oh well, on to our next winners.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 9 - 6 - 1 ~ ~~60% win rate

Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Totals: 3 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +2.4

Up/Down $$: +$317.83

Bankroll: $5,317.83

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 9 - 6 - 1 ~ ~~60% win rate

Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Totals: 3 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +2.4

Up/Down $$: +$317.83

Bankroll: $5,317.83
________________________________________ _______-
Play for 11/16/2012...

Hawks @ Kings OVER 190

$159.53 to win $145.03

Cousins is back for the Kings and he does well against the Hawks. Kings should get a shot in the arm from two returning players, so I expect scoring to be up for them. Conversely, the Kings don't play defense, so the Hawks should score well above their average.

[A4K]

________________________________________ _______-
Play for 11/16/2012...

Hawks @ Kings OVER 190

$159.53 to win $145.03

Cousins is back for the Kings and he does well against the Hawks. Kings should get a shot in the arm from two returning players, so I expect scoring to be up for them. Conversely, the Kings don't play defense, so the Hawks should score well above their average.

WINNER!

GAME RECAP:

This game went according to plan. Hawks scored well above their average and the Kings appeared to get a little life from Cousins being in the lineup. He had 16 boards, but only 9 points. Nice to get an easy 18 point over.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 10 - 6 - 1 ~ ~~62.5% win rate

Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Totals: 4 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.4

Up/Down $$: +$462.86

Bankroll: $5,462.86