A4K's 2012.2013 NBA thread...mainly totals

[A4K]

I've had moderate success with NBA/CBB over the last few seasons. I, like many others, will use a thread to track my NBA plays for the season. Feel free to offer comments, criticism or donate points to a degenerate SBR Casino player.

Just an FYI...

Early in the NBA/CBB seasons, I tend to bet a disproportional amount of UNDERS. Early in the season, I bet UNDERS for a few reasons:

1. Not all players are in shape or have gelled with their new teammates.
2. Lines tend to be slightly inflated due to the general public's fascination with OVERS and scoring.

Best of luck to all of you and may we all make money!

[A4K]

Going with Mavericks @ Lakers UNDER 186 for 1.1 UNITS

Mike Brown is a defense first coach and with the Mavericks missing Dirk Nowitzki and a few more pieces from last season's team, I think the Lakers keep the Mavericks around 80 points. On the other side of the court we have a Lakers team that looks great on paper, but in all reality they have not played many games together as a unit. The Lakers will take 10-20 games to learn each other's tendencies (see Miami Heat a few seasons ago.) I expect the Lakers to score around 85-90 points.



2012.2013:

Overall Record: 0 - 0

Spread: 0 - 0
Totals: 0 - 0

Units Won/Lost: 0

[A4K]

Wow, I know this game went completely different than how I capped it, but FU<k you="" lakers!="" down="" 10="" with="" seconds="" left="" and="" intentionally="" foul?="" that="" useless="" foul="" at="" mid-court="" put="" the="" game="" over.=""
¢K you Pau Gasol, you ugly b!tch. Down 10 with 10 seconds left and you intentionally foul?
What a penetrating joke?!

GAME RECAP:

I figured the Lakers offense would be out of sync, but I was counting on their defense showing up. Boy was I wrong. Lakers got slashed and gashed and barely made an effort to defend the arc. Conversely, Dallas played a bend but don't break defense and a fast paced offense. Props to Carlisle for having his undersized team ready to play on opening night, that's more than I can say for Mike Brown.




2012.2013:

Overall Record: 0 - 1

Spread: 0 - 0
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: -1.1</k>

[A4K]

Alright, last night was NOT a good start, but tonight we try again!

Taking.....

Grizzlies @ Clippers -4 1.1 units to win 1

Unlike the Lakers, I think Griffin and Paul have enough chemistry to lead the Clippers over the Grizzlies. I see a see-saw battle with the Clippers pulling away late.

[A4K]

Alright, last night was NOT a good start, but tonight we try again!

Taking.....

Grizzlies @ Clippers -4 1.1 units to win 1
Unlike the Lakers, I think Griffin and Paul have enough chemistry to lead the Clippers over the Grizzlies. I see a see-saw battle with the Clippers pulling away late.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 1 - 1

Spread: 1 - 0
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: -0.1

[A4K]

Well, I popped my 2012.2013 cherry. Here's tonight's selection....

Thunder +2 @ Spurs for 1.1 units... (I'm actually getting reduced juice at 5dimes) For tracking purposes I'll use a conventional -110 line.

Traditionally the Spurs are a tough opponent at home, but with the Spurs coming off a difficult road win against the Hornets, and facing arguably the best team in the west, I have to take the Thunder and the points. Thunder should be fresh and ready to make an opening statement. Good luck!

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 1 - 1

Spread: 1 - 0
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: -0.1

[A4K]

Well, I popped my 2012.2013 cherry. Here's tonight's selection....

Thunder +2 @ Spurs for 1.1 units... (I'm actually getting reduced juice at 5dimes) For tracking purposes I'll use a conventional -110 line.

Traditionally the Spurs are a tough opponent at home, but with the Spurs coming off a difficult road win against the Hornets, and facing arguably the best team in the west, I have to take the Thunder and the points. Thunder should be fresh and ready to make an opening statement. Good luck!

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 1 - 1

Spread: 1 - 0
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: -0.1

Ouch! With only 30 seconds left the Thunder choke away the lead with a turnover.

I guess taking a PUSH is not the end of the world.


2012.2013:

Overall Record: 1 - 1 - 1

Spread: 1 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: -0.1

[A4K]

11/2/12

Tonight I'm rolling with the Rose-less Bulls -2.5 @ Cavaliers for 1.1 unit to win 1

Also adding: Blazers @ Thunder -8.5 for 1.1 to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 1 - 1 - 1

Spread: 1 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: -0.1

[A4K]

11/2/12

Tonight I'm rolling with the Rose-less Bulls -2.5 @ Cavaliers for 1.1 unit to win 1

Also adding: Blazers @ Thunder -8.5 for 1.1 to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 1 - 1 - 1

Spread: 1 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: -0.1

Cash'd 'em both!!!!

Bulls crushed the Cavs and the Thunder put the Blazers away!

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 3 - 1 - 1

Spread: 3 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +1.9

[A4K]

I took the weekend off from the NBA to enjoy some college football, but I'm ready to get back at it.

Tonight's selection....

Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies -5 1.1 units to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 3 - 1 - 1

Spread: 3 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +1.9

[Frisco]

gl man, tailing.

[A4K]

gl man, tailing.

Cool!

I like Memphis. They were a good value last season. I'm amazed at how many bettors disregard the Grizzlies. I'm hoping that will be a similar trend in 2012.2013.

[A4K]

I took the weekend off from the NBA to enjoy some college football, but I'm ready to get back at it.

Tonight's selection....

Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies -5 1.1 units to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 3 - 1 - 1

Spread: 3 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +1.9

WINNER!

Grizzlies win by 9, though the game was not that close heading down the stretch.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 4 - 1 - 1

Spread: 4 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +2.9

[A4K]

Side note:

I know the title of the thread says "mainly totals," but I don't have enough data to feel confident in playing totals, right now.

[A4K]

NO plays for today, 11/6.

None of these lines look appealing. If I had to bet and I don't, I'd take Denver and lay the 10.

THIS IS NOT A PLAY.

[A4K]

Tonight's game, I like .....

Nuggets @ Houston -2.5, 1.1 to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 4 - 1 - 1

Spread: 4 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +2.9

[A4K]

Tonight's game, I like .....

Nuggets @ Houston -2.5, 1.1 to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 4 - 1 - 1

Spread: 4 - 0 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +2.9

Well that went sour. Nuggets and Rockets were in a see-saw battle until the latter part of the 1H. Nuggets blew that b!tch open and the Rockets couldn't mount a big enough surge to comeback. Rockets got within 3 a few times, but then immediately gave it back. I jumped on Rockets -5 for the 2H, but that obviously won't count towards this record, as I didn't post it before the 2H. We'll get back at 'em tomorrow.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 4 - 2 - 1

Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +1.8

[A4K]

My play for 11/8....

Thunder -2.5 @ Bulls 1.1 units to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 4 - 2 - 1

Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +1.8

[Murray Rothbard]

Dang A4K, been wondering where you've been and I have found my answer haha. Looks like your off to a pretty good start on basketball, I look forward to following this thread and seeing all the winner you pick. Cheers bud.

[A4K]

Dang A4K, been wondering where you've been and I have found my answer haha. Looks like your off to a pretty good start on basketball, I look forward to following this thread and seeing all the winner you pick. Cheers bud.

LOL, just started a new job. I still work from home, but most of my time has me traveling around my county. Good to see you, I've been meaning to message you. I bought a book about gambling and mathematics. Looks like good reference material for calculating probability.

[A4K]

Adding for 11/8.....

Clippers @ Blazers UNDER 201.5 1.1 units to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 4 - 2 - 1

Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +1.8

[A4K]

My play for 11/8....

Thunder -2.5 @ Bulls 1.1 units to win 1

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 4 - 2 - 1

Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1

Units Won/Lost: +1.8

CASH MONEY!!!!

Thunder with the cover!

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 5 - 2 - 1

Spread: 5 - 1 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1 - 0

Units Won/Lost: +2.8

Clippers @ Blazers UNDER 201.5 PENDING

[A4K]

CASH MONEY!!!!

Thunder with the cover!

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 5 - 2 - 1

Spread: 5 - 1 - 1
Totals: 0 - 1 - 0

Units Won/Lost: +2.8

Clippers @ Blazers UNDER 201.5 PENDING

2 for 2 on Thursday! Nailed it! I had a feeling that the Clippers scoring would regress. Glad I listened to my gut.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 6 - 2 - 1

Spread: 5 - 1 - 1
Totals: 1 - 1 - 0

Units Won/Lost: +3.8

[TR35]

Nice pick. I tailed it. What do you have for tonight?

[Murray Rothbard]

Nice call on that under A4K. The game already started when I realized you took the under but i got it live at 204. Thanks for the play my friend.

[A4K]

Play for 11/9...

I was leaning on Cleveland, but with injuries to their BIG men, I don't want to roll the dice on the road.

I'm going with...

Rockets +7 @ Grizzlies 1.1 unit to win 1

Too many points for the Rockets in my opinion.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 6 - 2 - 1

Spread: 5 - 1 - 1
Totals: 1 - 1 - 0

Units Won/Lost: +3.8

[Murray Rothbard]

Thanks for the play. I took thought the Rockets getting 7 was a lot so I'm glad you agreed cuz now I can play them with some confidence. GL tonight!

[A4K]

Play for 11/9...

I was leaning on Cleveland, but with injuries to their BIG men, I don't want to roll the dice on the road.

I'm going with...

Rockets +7 @ Grizzlies 1.1 unit to win 1

Too many points for the Rockets in my opinion.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 6 - 2 - 1

Spread: 5 - 1 - 1
Totals: 1 - 1 - 0

Units Won/Lost: +3.8

Ouch, that hurt. Rockets melted to the Grizzlies inside presence, down the stretch. I've been sick so I haven't had much energy to handicap. Might have a pick this evening. I played the Rockets 1h -4 against Detroit and the 2H Rockets -2. Both hit, but I didn't post the plays so I won't count them towards my record. Just giving an insight to my selections. BOL everyone.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 6 - 3 - 1

Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Totals: 1 - 1 - 0

Units Won/Lost: +2.7

[A4K]

For 11/11, here is my play....

Going with Kings @ Lakers OVER 191.5 1.1 to win 1

Lakers looked better on the offensive end versus the Warriors and the same on the defensive end, average. Hopefully this goes over early.

[A4K]

For 11/11, here is my play....

Going with Kings @ Lakers OVER 191.5 1.1 to win 1

Lakers looked better on the offensive end versus the Warriors and the same on the defensive end, average. Hopefully this goes over early.

Wow! Ten points in the last 1:03 for the OVER! That was LUCKY as hell, but I'll take it. Thought the 3rd quarter sunk us! Oh well, CASH IT!





2012.2013:

Overall Record: 7 - 3 - 1

Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Totals: 2 - 1 - 0

Units Won/Lost: +3.7

[A4K]

11/12 Play.....

I may add another game in the afternoon.

Coming off an embarrassing 18 point defeat, I think the Heat are setup to impose their will on the Rockets. The Rockets are coming off of a whooping that they put on the Pistons. The Rockets will come out ready, but fade in the 2H. Ultimately, the Rockets are a jump shot team without much of an inside presence. If you have been paying attention, James Harden has been regressing back to the player he was in OKC. Those gaudy numbers to start the season are not there any more. I expect the Heat, can't believe I'm condoning this, to put on a clinic and bury the Rockets midway through the fourth. Bosh should have a BIG game in terms of rebounding.

Heat -5 @ Rockets $165.51 to win $150.46

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 7 - 3 - 1 ~ 70% win rate

Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Totals: 2 - 1 - 0

Units up/down: +3.7

Up/Down $$: +$516.85

Bankroll: $5,516.85

[A4K]

I'm going to add a dollar value to my record keeping so that it resonates with everyone. I'm not a flat bettor per se. I normally wager 3% of my bankroll. When I get a free moment, I'll update the dollar value of my plays up to today's selection.

Updated money total wagering 3% of $5k bankroll. If multiple plays in one day, 3% for each wager.

START: $5,000

LOSS: $4,863.64

WIN: $4996.29

WIN X 2: $5,268.82

WIN: $5,412.50

LOSS: $5,250.12

WIN X 2: $5,536.48

LOSS: $5,370.39

WIN: $5,516.85

BALANCE before today's action: $5,516.85

[Murray Rothbard]

Thanks for the plays A4K. I love the Heat play and your analysis was spot on. You may want to take a look at the Wolves/Dalls under. There are significant injuries on both sides and the total has dropped by 3 points since the opening line while 63% of the public is on the over. Same line movement in that Portland game.

Anyways, GL!

[A4K]

Thanks for the plays A4K. I love the Heat play and your analysis was spot on. You may want to take a look at the Wolves/Dalls under. There are significant injuries on both sides and the total has dropped by 3 points since the opening line while 63% of the public is on the over. Same line movement in that Portland game.

Anyways, GL!

Huh, I'll have to take a look at those. I got lucky on last night's over, but it makes up for the bad beat to start this thread...LOL

[A4K]

11/12 Play.....

I may add another game in the afternoon.

Coming off an embarrassing 18 point defeat, I think the Heat are setup to impose their will on the Rockets. The Rockets are coming off of a whooping that they put on the Pistons. The Rockets will come out ready, but fade in the 2H. Ultimately, the Rockets are a jump shot team without much of an inside presence. If you have been paying attention, James Harden has been regressing back to the player he was in OKC. Those gaudy numbers to start the season are not there any more. I expect the Heat, can't believe I'm condoning this, to put on a clinic and bury the Rockets midway through the fourth. Bosh should have a BIG game in terms of rebounding.

Heat -5 @ Rockets $165.51 to win $150.46

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________

GAME RECAP:

I did a HORRIBLE job of 'capping this game.

Even though we failed to cover by 2 points, the game was not that close, down the stretch. For starters, I should have listened to other posters who brought up the multiple games in four days for the Heat angle. The Heat looked great in the 1H and then appeared to run out of steam. Luckily for the Heat, LeBron willed them to victory. Oh and Lin failed to hit anything on a 3-point attempt, with under a minute left.

Two things shocked me from this game; 1) The Heat got mauled in the paint. The Rockets had a much better inside presence than I've seen from them, of late. 2) The Rockets worked themselves to the charity stripe 13 more times than the Heat and converted 26 of 33! That really blew me away. Lately, the Rockets have been a jump shot perimeter team, so I was surprised at how much they attacked the paint.


Closing thoughts...

The Rockets were playing like an inspired team. They were jacking up 3-balls and working the ball inside-out. Ultimately, the Heat ran out of gas and the Rockets took advantage for a cover. If I had to do it over, I'd probably still take the Heat -5. I need to pay more attention to the ALL OUT effort that above average teams will give the Heat, each night. I don't normally like backing the Heat, but I thought this was a good spot. I was wrong, they looked tired in the 2H.



2012.2013:

Overall Record: 7 - 4 - 1 ~ 63.63% win rate

Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Totals: 2 - 1 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +2.6

Up/Down $$: +$351.34

Bankroll: $5,351.34