A4K's 2012.2013 NBA thread...mainly totals

[A4K]

Hey A4K how come you wager to win $147.53? It seems like a random number?

3% of my running bankroll.

[Murray Rothbard]

3% of my running bankroll.

Word, forgot about that.

[davopnz]

any love for the bulls? i reckon they can suffocate the bucks at home

[A4K]

any love for the bulls? i reckon they can suffocate the bucks at home

Sorry, man, I just read your post and to be honest, I didn't cap that game.

[A4K]

________________________________________ _______________________________

Plays for the day 11/26/2012....

#1 Spurs -5 @ Wizards

$162.28 TO WIN $147.53

This line has dropped significantly. I believe it reached -8 at one point. Anything under 2 baskets and I have to take the Spurs. Spurs are a premier team and the Wizards are not. I don't care about the back to back off of a double OT. The Spurs will win this game and I believe they will win by more than two baskets. Too much faith being placed in a winless Wizards team.

#2 Cavaliers +12.5 @ Grizzlies

$162.28 TO WIN $147.53

I know, I know, the Grizzlies are awesome and the Cavaliers suck, but look at how well Cleveland has played of late. The Cavs have lost a lot of games, but many of them are competitive. Cavs are 1-4 over their last 5, but have only lost by an average of 5.25 points over those games. 12.5 is a lot of points to cover. If the Grizzly get up BIG, they will rest their starters and try to coast home in the 4th. That scenario leaves a HUGE back door opportunity for the Cavs. Will the Grizzly stay motivated for four full quarters? I don't think they will.

#3 Nets @ Knicks OVER 193

$162.28 TO WIN $147.53

The battle for New York!!! These two squads won't play a lick of defense as they try to one up each other. I expect a 200 point type game.

#1 WINNER! Spurs cruised to an easy cover as I thought they would.

#2 WINNER! Cavaliers played better than I expected, but easily covered. 12.5 points was way out of whack. Heck they almost won!

#3 LOSER!! I was dead wrong on this one. Even with OT we fell 9 points short of hitting the over.

May have to leave the totals alone for a week or two.

Anyways, I'll gladly take 2 out of 3, everyday that I wager!


2012.2013:

Overall Record: 15 - 10 - 1 ~ ~~60% win rate

Spread: 10 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 6 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +4.1

Up/Down $$: +$542.17

Bankroll: $5,542.17

[A4K]

I should have one play this afternoon. Still capping a few games. Nothing has struck me as a great value, yet.

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 15 - 10 - 1 ~ ~~60% win rate

Spread: 10 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 6 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +4.0

Up/Down $$: +$542.17

Bankroll: $5,542.17
________________________________________ ___________________________

PLAY for 11/27/2012......

Mavericks +3.5 @ 76ers

Mavericks coming off of a humiliating loss against the Lakers, should be amped up to put that embarrassing performance behind them. 76ers are about equal in terms of talent, so I expect a close game that comes down to the final possession. All things considered, I think Dallas has more motivation to play tonight.

$166.27 to win $151.15

[pimpinaces]

I will be following you...nba being 1 sport i dont cap now that football is over...

[A4K]

I will be following you...nba being 1 sport i dont cap now that football is over...

Fantastic. Enjoy the ride.

[A4K]

________________________________________ ___________________________

PLAY for 11/27/2012......

Mavericks +3.5 @ 76ers

Mavericks coming off of a humiliating loss against the Lakers, should be amped up to put that embarrassing performance behind them. 76ers are about equal in terms of talent, so I expect a close game that comes down to the final possession. All things considered, I think Dallas has more motivation to play tonight.

$166.27 to win $151.15

WINNER!!

This game ended up coming down to a final possession, as I predicted. However, both teams played like sh!t and that's being kind. Dallas played decent basketball for the first 41 minutes and then inexplicably had 6 straight turnovers and no baskets for 4:30 penetrating minutes!! Dallas could've won this game, but they could not overcome that sloppy stretch in the 4th. We also caught a break when Mayo failed to hit the first free-throw in the last 2.7 seconds of the game, but I'll take it.


2012.2013:

Overall Record: 16 - 10 - 1 ~ ~~61.53% win rate

Spread: 11 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 6 - 0


Up/Down $$: +$693.32

Bankroll: $5,693.32 I bet 3% of this number on each play, each day.

[pimpinaces]

good job..close one I had your play and the lakers under. Got creamed in ncaab . Do you play collage hoops?

[Murray Rothbard]

Nice job A4K!

[A4K]

good job..close one I had your play and the lakers under. Got creamed in ncaab . Do you play collage hoops?

Normally, I do, but this season I just haven't had time. Now that the opening tourneys are done, I'll probably start capping some games and starting a NCAA BB thread, similar to this one.

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 16 - 10 - 1 ~ ~~61.53% win rate

Spread: 11 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 6 - 0


Up/Down $$: +$693.32

Bankroll: $5,693.32 I bet 3% of this number on each play, each day.

________________________________________ _______________________________________

Play of the day 11/28/2012.....

T-Wolves @ Clippers UNDER 194

Clippers have been AWFUL on the defensive end for the last 4 games and were red hot with the 3-ball in their last game. These two FACTS have inflated tonight's total. The Clippers emphasized defense during their last practice and according to the games preview the Clippers have been embarrassed by their recent defensive effort. With the T-Wolves only averaging 92 points and the Clippers ready to step it up on the defensive end, I see this total staying under the 194 mark.

I know I said that I'd lay off totals for awhile, but this game looks too good.


$170.80 to win $155.27

[pimpinaces]

im on it...

[TR35]

i like it!

[celtics3388]

also played this one, t'wloves big under team this year

[A4K]

also played this one, t'wloves big under team this year

I hope the Clippers aren't just giving the press lip service. If these boys play any defense, whatsoever, this UNDER should hit.

FYI....the line has since moved to 194.5

[celtics3388]

damn yea 195 now, we are def fading the market here - not always a bad thing but just sucks not getting the best number

[A4K]

...

[Murray Rothbard]

A4K, I think you quoted the wrong post but I can't believe that game ended up over. When I last looked both teams were int he 80's with like 4 minutes to go maybe less. 15 pts in 49 seconds!?!?!? Where was that when the Knicks played the Brooklyn the other day? Thats terrible. Better luck tomorrow champ.

[celtics3388]

that flurry to finish the first half killed us - i grabbed some T'Pups 2H +5.5 to minimize the loss and probably should have played 2H 98 under too but tough to do after watching that first half. BOL on your plays today

[A4K]

________________________________________ _______________________________________

Play of the day 11/28/2012.....

T-Wolves @ Clippers UNDER 194

Clippers have been AWFUL on the defensive end for the last 4 games and were red hot with the 3-ball in their last game. These two FACTS have inflated tonight's total. The Clippers emphasized defense during their last practice and according to the games preview the Clippers have been embarrassed by their recent defensive effort. With the T-Wolves only averaging 92 points and the Clippers ready to step it up on the defensive end, I see this total staying under the 194 mark.

I know I said that I'd lay off totals for awhile, but this game looks too good.


$170.80 to win $155.27

LOSER!!!!!

Both teams failed to play any defense in the 1H and then they played great defense in the 2H, only to allow 15 points in the final minute of the game. 15 phuccking points! I don't feel bad about this play, but I will be laying off totals for awhile. I'm having much more success with the spread this season. Anyways, we will get 'em today.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 16 - 11 - 1 ~ ~~59.25% win rate

Spread: 11 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 7 - 0


Up/Down $$: +$522.52

Bankroll: $5,522.52 I bet 3% of this number on each play, each day.

[A4K]

A4K, I think you quoted the wrong post but I can't believe that game ended up over. When I last looked both teams were int he 80's with like 4 minutes to go maybe less. 15 pts in 49 seconds!?!?!? Where was that when the Knicks played the Brooklyn the other day? Thats terrible. Better luck tomorrow champ.

Yeah, that flurry in the final minute was brutal. The worst part was the final foul that put the game over. It was pointless. T-Wolves down 4 with less than 3 seconds left and they intentionally foul. I'm layin' off totals for the foreseeable future.

Thanks for correcting me. I was tired and quoted the wrong play. It has since been edited and corrected below. CHEERS!

[A4K]

that flurry to finish the first half killed us - i grabbed some T'Pups 2H +5.5 to minimize the loss and probably should have played 2H 98 under too but tough to do after watching that first half. BOL on your plays today

Yeah, that flurry of threes to end the 1H pissed me off. I didn't think this game had a shot of going under and then both teams played hard nosed defense in the 2H, only to allow 15 points in the final minute. UNREAL!

[celtics3388]

Yeah, that flurry of threes to end the 1H pissed me off. I didn't think this game had a shot of going under and then both teams played hard nosed defense in the 2H, only to allow 15 points in the final minute. UNREAL!

yea I feel asleep right when the 3rd started... glad i didn't see that finish - not good for the blood pressure

[A4K]

yea I feel asleep right when the 3rd started... glad i didn't see that finish - not good for the blood pressure

Unfortunately, I live on the west coast and had to watch foul after useless foul prolong the phucking game.

So far, I don't see anything I like for tonight.

[celtics3388]

Unfortunately, I live on the west coast and had to watch foul after useless foul prolong the phucking game.

So far, I don't see anything I like for tonight.

What you think about GS? 4 days off, revenge from last week, at home, and Denver looking ahead to tomorrow for "playoff revenge" versus LAL. Think that's enough to overcome a slight talent disparency?

[A4K]

What you think about GS? 5 days off, revenge from last week, at home, and Denver looking ahead to tomorrow for "playoff revenge" versus LAL. Think that's enough to overcome a slight talent diparency?>

I have not looked at that game, but I can definitely rule out the Spurs @ Heat contest. I'll get back to ya soon...

[A4K]

I don't care for either game, but if I had to bet, I'd take the HOME team getting points.

[A4K]

Finally a full slate of games to choose from. I hate these 2-3 game Thursdays. Should have at least 1 selection for this evening. Hope you guys made some money on the Warriors thriller.

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 16 - 11 - 1 ~ ~~59.25% win rate

Spread: 11 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 7 - 0


Up/Down $$: +$522.52

Bankroll: $5,522.52 I bet 3% of this number on each play, each day.
________________________________________ ________________________________________ __

A Friday flurry of plays..... 11/30/2012

#1 Suns @ Raptors -2

Raptors were just embarrassed, as were the Suns, but the Raptors are at home and have lost 6 in a row. These two teams are fairly equal in terms of talent, and with Bargnani listed as probable, I think the Raptors will be the hungrier team.

$165.68 to win $$150.62

#2 Cavaliers +9 @ Hawks

Arguably, my favorite play of the day. Cleveland has a history this season of being blown out or extremely competitive. The Cavaliers were just embarrassed and then verbally assaulted by their coach. As long as Gibson plays, I like Cleveland to keep things close. This team is much better than their record indicates. Conversely, the Hawks have been on fire and have feasted on teams at home. Will the Hawks sleep walk through tonight's contest and eek out a win? I like my odds of that happening. I'll take the points.

$165.68 to win $$150.62

#3 Nets -4 @ Magic

Even with Lopez on the bench with an injury, I like the Nets in this spot. Nets appeared to get a shot in the arm after the "brawl" in Boston. I think beating the Knicks and Celtics have helped the Nets believe that they are a premier team in the East. I'm thinking the good times continue to roll against a below average Magic squad.

$165.68 to win $150.62

[Murray Rothbard]

GL Tonight bud!

[pimpinaces]

Well done my friend...cheers to you!

[A4K]

________________________________________ ________________________________________ __

A Friday flurry of plays..... 11/30/2012

#1 Suns @ Raptors -2

Raptors were just embarrassed, as were the Suns, but the Raptors are at home and have lost 6 in a row. These two teams are fairly equal in terms of talent, and with Bargnani listed as probable, I think the Raptors will be the hungrier team.

$165.68 to win $$150.62

#2 Cavaliers +9 @ Hawks

Arguably, my favorite play of the day. Cleveland has a history this season of being blown out or extremely competitive. The Cavaliers were just embarrassed and then verbally assaulted by their coach. As long as Gibson plays, I like Cleveland to keep things close. This team is much better than their record indicates. Conversely, the Hawks have been on fire and have feasted on teams at home. Will the Hawks sleep walk through tonight's contest and eek out a win? I like my odds of that happening. I'll take the points.

$165.68 to win $$150.62

#3 Nets -4 @ Magic

Even with Lopez on the bench with an injury, I like the Nets in this spot. Nets appeared to get a shot in the arm after the "brawl" in Boston. I think beating the Knicks and Celtics have helped the Nets believe that they are a premier team in the East. I'm thinking the good times continue to roll against a below average Magic squad.

$165.68 to win $150.62

#1 WINNER! Raptors slipped by the Suns and this was arguably the shakiest game of the three. In a strange twist, it was the game that I was most confident in. Go figure. Glad to put another W in the win column.

#2 WINNER!! Cavaliers came to play, and play they did. Hell, they won straight up! The Hawks slept walked down the stretch and the Cavalier guards abused the path to the basket. Varejao played an amazing game and helped carry this young team down the stretch. This is what can happen in the NBA, when one team sleeps and another creeps. VALUE!

#3 WINNER!!! The Nets came to play as they seek to establish themselves as a true contender in the East. This game wasn't close.

3-0 on the day! Happy Birthday to me, literally. (It's my birthday)

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 19 - 11 - 1 ~ ~~63.33% win rate

Spread: 14 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 7 - 0


Up/Down $$: +$974.38

Bankroll: $5,974.38........ I bet 3% of this number on each play, each day.