A4K's 2012.2013 NBA thread...mainly totals

[Murray Rothbard]

Nice job A4K, you're killin it!

[A4K]

Nice job A4K, you're killin it!

Thanks. I've been following your thread and it looks like a winner. Are you refining your theory, at all?

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 10 - 6 - 1 ~ ~~62.5% win rate

Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Totals: 4 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.4

Up/Down $$: +$462.86

Bankroll: $5,462.86
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PLAY FOR 11/17/2012......

SQUARE ALERT!!! Heat -6 @ Suns

$163.89 to win $148.99


Suns got out run and gunned by the Lakers last night. Heat rested.

[A4K]

________________________________________ ___________-

PLAY FOR 11/17/2012......

SQUARE ALERT!!! Heat -6 @ Suns

$163.89 to win $148.99


Suns got out run and gunned by the Lakers last night. Heat rested.

WINNER!!!!

We eeeked out a win, but I'm not complaining. Suns made it a closer game than I expected. Updated record below.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 11 - 6 - 1 ~ ~~64.7% win rate

Spread: 7 - 3 - 1
Totals: 4 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +4.4

Up/Down $$: +$611.85

Bankroll: $5,611.85

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 11 - 6 - 1 ~ ~~64.7% win rate

Spread: 7 - 3 - 1
Totals: 4 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +4.4

Up/Down $$: +$611.85

Bankroll: $5,611.85
________________________________________ __________________________________

PLAY FOR 11/18/2012.....

Cavaliers +6.5 @ 76ers

$168.36 to win $153.05

Cavaliers have lost 5 in a row and face a 76ers team that is not that much better. Like the young team and the points in this spot.

[A4K]

________________________________________ __________________________________

PLAY FOR 11/18/2012.....

Cavaliers +6.5 @ 76ers

$168.36 to win $153.05

Cavaliers have lost 5 in a row and face a 76ers team that is not that much better. Like the young team and the points in this spot.

LOSER!!!

Well phuck a Chinese duck, I hate losing by a single basket. Oh well, not the worst bad beat, I've experienced. We will get 'em tomorrow.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 11 - 7 - 1 ~ ~~61.11% win rate

Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Totals: 4 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.3

Up/Down $$: +$443.49

Bankroll: $5,443.49

[Murray Rothbard]

Thanks. I've been following your thread and it looks like a winner. Are you refining your theory, at all?

Yeah I've been making little tweaks here and there. I've decided to put more weight on RLM than public consensus. I still prefer to take games with high percentages of the public on one side but I no longer will pass up on a game with RLM because the public consensus is only at 63% for example. I've also realized (should of realized it from the get go) that waiting till game time to take bets is not a smart idea. A lot of times a line will move 2-3+ points and if I wait I lose it out on the extra points which could come in handy at the end up games. Now I take a game as soon as I see a 1 pt RLM (with around 65%+ consensus). Doing this runs the risk of the line moving back in the right direction but its a risk I'm willing to take.

[A4K]

Yeah I've been making little tweaks here and there. I've decided to put more weight on RLM than public consensus. I still prefer to take games with high percentages of the public on one side but I no longer will pass up on a game with RLM because the public consensus is only at 63% for example. I've also realized (should of realized it from the get go) that waiting till game time to take bets is not a smart idea. A lot of times a line will move 2-3+ points and if I wait I lose it out on the extra points which could come in handy at the end up games. Now I take a game as soon as I see a 1 pt RLM (with around 65%+ consensus). Doing this runs the risk of the line moving back in the right direction but its a risk I'm willing to take.

Interesting. The general rule of thumb, and I stress general, is to bet favorites early and dogs late.

[Murray Rothbard]

Interesting. The general rule of thumb, and I stress general, is to bet favorites early and dogs late.

Sounds like a good general rule but not sure how good it would be given RLM. For the most part you don't see huge swings in LM so I think even with my theory, that general rule could still apply.

[A4K]

Sounds like a good general rule but not sure how good it would be given RLM. For the most part you don't see huge swings in LM so I think even with my theory, that general rule could still apply.

Keep doing what you're doing. I really think you are on to something. Refine it and reshape it, repeat!

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 11 - 7 - 1 ~ ~~61.11% win rate

Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Totals: 4 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.3

Up/Down $$: +$443.49

Bankroll: $5,443.49
________________________________________ _________________________

PLAY FOR 11/19/2012....

Nuggets +7 @ Grizzlies

$163.30 to win $148.45

Nuggets are losers of three straight and are coming off a league worse loss of 26 points. Fully expect, Mr. Karl to have his team ready to compete and try to end that streak. Denver got torched on the perimeter by the Spurs and lost by 26. Grizzlies rank near the bottom in 3-balls made. Grizzlies are winners of eight in a row and have a key game after this one, with the Lakers. I'm counting on the Grizzlies looking past the Nuggets and the Nuggets bringing their A-game to halt their skid.

[Lakers714]

Good luck with your play bro. I can't fade the Grizz right now. I can't expect teams to look past their opponents. That's what everybody was saying about the Nets last night looking past the Kings, with their next game on TUE against the Lakers. BOL to u though. Hope Denver covers for u.

[A4K]

Good luck with your play bro. I can't fade the Grizz right now. I can't expect teams to look past their opponents. That's what everybody was saying about the Nets last night looking past the Kings, with their next game on TUE against the Lakers. BOL to u though. Hope Denver covers for u.

Kind of what I'm counting on. I'm hoping a LARGE majority of people can't fade the Grizzlies and the line moves upwards. The look-past angle is just a small part of my play. More than anything, I am counting on the Nuggets to defend the 3-ball better than they did against the Spurs and come out hard to end their 3 game losing streak. Hoping this comes down to the final possession.

Did you bet the other side?

[Murray Rothbard]

Gl A4K!

[Lakers714]

Kind of what I'm counting on. I'm hoping a LARGE majority of people can't fade the Grizzlies and the line moves upwards. The look-past angle is just a small part of my play. More than anything, I am counting on the Nuggets to defend the 3-ball better than they did against the Spurs and come out hard to end their 3 game losing streak. Hoping this comes down to the final possession.

Did you bet the other side?

No, I didn't bet the other side. Staying away from this game. I wouldn't be surprised of a Grizz blowout or a close game. I'm really hoping for the latter for u here. One of my rules is not to try and guess when a team won't stop playing well. I simply just stay away from those games. If I did make a play however, it would be on Grizz. BOL

[A4K]

No, I didn't bet the other side. Staying away from this game. I wouldn't be surprised of a Grizz blowout or a close game. I'm really hoping for the latter for u here. One of my rules is not to try and guess when a team won't stop playing well. I simply just stay away from those games. If I did make a play however, it would be on Grizz. BOL

Understandable. Grizzlies may be the best team in the West in terms of consistency in effort. The Nuggets played the Heat tough, twice. Once at home and once on the road. Hoping that the Nuggets show that type of energy. Nothing surprises me in the NBA, any more.

[A4K]

________________________________________ _________________________

PLAY FOR 11/19/2012....

Nuggets +7 @ Grizzlies

$163.30 to win $148.45

Nuggets are losers of three straight and are coming off a league worse loss of 26 points. Fully expect, Mr. Karl to have his team ready to compete and try to end that streak. Denver got torched on the perimeter by the Spurs and lost by 26. Grizzlies rank near the bottom in 3-balls made. Grizzlies are winners of eight in a row and have a key game after this one, with the Lakers. I'm counting on the Grizzlies looking past the Nuggets and the Nuggets bringing their A-game to halt their skid.

WINNER!!!!! Didn't even need the points!
As I expected, George Karl brought his boys to play, and ended that lil 3 game skid. Grizzlies are the better team, but after winning 8 in a row it's hard for some teams to get up. I loved this spot and I'm glad that it paid off.


2012.2013:

Overall Record: 12 - 7 - 1 ~ ~~63.15% win rate

Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Totals: 4 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +4.3

Up/Down $$: +$591.94

Bankroll: $5,591.94

[A4K]

So far, nothing is popping out at me, for tonight's games. If the Nets @ Lakers total climbs above 210, I may play the UNDER.

[celtics3388]

good stuff in here AK, any thoughts on NYK/NOH? I really like New Orleans here but seems like the entire board wants to lay the 6

[A4K]

good stuff in here AK, any thoughts on NYK/NOH? I really like New Orleans here but seems like the entire board wants to lay the 6

In general, if the entire board wants to do something, do the opposite. If I had to bet this game, I'd wait 'til closer to tip-off and take the Hornets and the points. Knicks should win, but the Hornets are coming off of 3 losses in a row. They should be motivated. This smells like a backdoor cover type of game.

[celtics3388]

In general, if the entire board wants to do something, do the opposite. If I had to bet this game, I'd wait 'til closer to tip-off and take the Hornets and the points. Knicks should win, but the Hornets are coming off of 3 losses in a row. They should be motivated. This smells like a backdoor cover type of game.

alright glad to hear it... i read some posts earlier where people were giving Jason Kidd and Rasheed Wallace as reasons to back the Knicks lol - there's a lot of crap you have to sift through on this forum. Anyways good hit yesterday and good luck with your plays bro

[A4K]

alright glad to hear it... i read some posts earlier where people were giving Jason Kidd and Rasheed Wallace as reasons to back the Knicks lol - there's a lot of crap you have to sift through on this forum. Anyways good hit yesterday and good luck with your plays bro

Yeah, I read a lot of funny stuff on here. Just remember this; some people pick teams they like and then try to justify their selection. True handicappers weigh the variables and then make their selection.

In general I love teams that are on a losing streak. Remember, these are professionals, and losing hurts their inflated egos. Hopefully the Hornets will play over their heads tonight and take a lead late into the 4th, for ya. Good luck my friend.

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 12 - 7 - 1 ~ ~~63.15% win rate

Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Totals: 4 - 3 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +4.3

Up/Down $$: +$591.94

Bankroll: $5,591.94
________________________________________ _______________________________

PLAYs FOR 11/20/2012.....

Knicks @ Hornets OVER 186

$167.76 to win $152.51

I think this total has been deflated by the result of the Pacers @ Knicks game. Remember, the Pacers are a sound defensive team and they are not exactly world beaters on the offensive end. If the Hornets are to keep pace, and I think they will, it will be a running style type of game.

&

Nets @ Lakers UNDER 208.5

$167.76 to win $152.51

I was hoping this total would climb, but it hasn't. Unless the Lakers go ape sh!t on the offensive end, yes, I know D'Antoni loves to run, I can't see the Lakers scoring more than 105. I think both teams play a lil defense tonight and remain closer to their season averages than the scoring of the last few games.

[A4K]

I'll update the record later, but dam that Knick's game pisses me off. Easily on track for the over and then boom, 4th quarter they only score 35. Bleh!

[A4K]

________________________________________ _______________________________

PLAYs FOR 11/20/2012.....

Knicks @ Hornets OVER 186

$167.76 to win $152.51

I think this total has been deflated by the result of the Pacers @ Knicks game. Remember, the Pacers are a sound defensive team and they are not exactly world beaters on the offensive end. If the Hornets are to keep pace, and I think they will, it will be a running style type of game.

&

Nets @ Lakers UNDER 208.5

$167.76 to win $152.51

I was hoping this total would climb, but it hasn't. Unless the Lakers go ape sh!t on the offensive end, yes, I know D'Antoni loves to run, I can't see the Lakers scoring more than 105. I think both teams play a lil defense tonight and remain closer to their season averages than the scoring of the last few games.

Knicks @ Hornets OVER 186 LOSER! That 4th quarter was underwhelming!

Nets @ Lakers UNDER 208.5 WINNER!!! Originally this was my only play of the day, but I talked myself into the Knicks game because the total plummeted. As I predicted, there was more defense than normal as the Nets are a decent team.



2012.2013:

Overall Record: 13 - 8 - 1 ~ ~~61.9% win rate

Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 4 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +4.3

Up/Down $$: +$576.69

Bankroll: $5,576.69

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 13 - 8 - 1 ~ ~~61.9% win rate

Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 4 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +4.3

Up/Down $$: +$576.69

Bankroll: $5,576.69
________________________________________ _____________________________________

Play for 11/21/2012......

Hornets @ Pacers UNDER 181.5

$167.30 TO WIN $152.09

Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the league and the Hornets are without Davis. I was on the proverbial fence with this total, but upon hearing that Davis is OUT, I have to take the UNDER. Hornets should score around 75-80 and the Pacers may scratch 90. This young Hornets squad just got crushed at home by the Knicks. To expect them to travel to Indiana and be up to play the Pacers seems like a stretch.

[Murray Rothbard]

Tailing. Thanks for the pick.

[A4K]

________________________________________ _____________________________________

Play for 11/21/2012......

Hornets @ Pacers UNDER 181.5

$167.30 TO WIN $152.09

Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the league and the Hornets are without Davis. I was on the proverbial fence with this total, but upon hearing that Davis is OUT, I have to take the UNDER. Hornets should score around 75-80 and the Pacers may scratch 90. This young Hornets squad just got crushed at home by the Knicks. To expect them to travel to Indiana and be up to play the Pacers seems like a stretch.

LOSER!!!!

I am really disappointed with how Indiana approached this game. I know this recap is almost a week old, but I've been on vacation. The Pacers refused to play defense and played the same style of game as the Hornets. The game went into OT, but the over was hit long before.

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 13 - 9 - 1 ~ ~~59% win rate

Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 5 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.2

Up/Down $$: +$409.39

Bankroll: $5,409.39

[A4K]

I'm back from vacation and I'm excited to get going again. Hopefully I'll have a play this evening.

[Murray Rothbard]

BOL A4K! It seems like I am bad luck since every time I tail you we end up losing lol. Clearly it's not because your bad at picking plays (as your win% indicates) but going forward I think I'll just stay on the sidelines and cheer you on. BOL!

[A4K]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 13 - 9 - 1 ~ ~~59% win rate

Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Totals: 5 - 5 - 0

Units up/down, flat betting: +3.2

Up/Down $$: +$409.39

Bankroll: $5,409.39
________________________________________ _______________________________

Plays for the day 11/26/2012....

#1 Spurs -5 @ Wizards

$162.28 TO WIN $147.53

This line has dropped significantly. I believe it reached -8 at one point. Anything under 2 baskets and I have to take the Spurs. Spurs are a premier team and the Wizards are not. I don't care about the back to back off of a double OT. The Spurs will win this game and I believe they will win by more than two baskets. Too much faith being placed in a winless Wizards team.

#2 Cavaliers +12.5 @ Grizzlies

$162.28 TO WIN $147.53

I know, I know, the Grizzlies are awesome and the Cavaliers suck, but look at how well Cleveland has played of late. The Cavs have lost a lot of games, but many of them are competitive. Cavs are 1-4 over their last 5, but have only lost by an average of 5.25 points over those games. 12.5 is a lot of points to cover. If the Grizzly get up BIG, they will rest their starters and try to coast home in the 4th. That scenario leaves a HUGE back door opportunity for the Cavs. Will the Grizzly stay motivated for four full quarters? I don't think they will.

#3 Nets @ Knicks OVER 193

$162.28 TO WIN $147.53

The battle for New York!!! These two squads won't play a lick of defense as they try to one up each other. I expect a 200 point type game.

[A4K]

BOL A4K! It seems like I am bad luck since every time I tail you we end up losing lol. Clearly it's not because your bad at picking plays (as your win% indicates) but going forward I think I'll just stay on the sidelines and cheer you on. BOL!

That's funny. I appreciate the support.

[celtics3388]

3 plays? very unlike you so far this yr, BOL man

[A4K]

3 plays? very unlike you so far this yr, BOL man

Yeah, these three really stand out to me. Hope you had a nice holiday.

[Murray Rothbard]

Hey A4K how come you wager to win $147.53? It seems like a random number?