Terrible 4th
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Overall the ROI on horses sitting throughout jail and dropping are -EV. If you left all of them out, you would be better off. I do know it is difficult to do that, but statistics don't lie.
If they are speed, certainly consider them in your pace layouts but all in all, just toss them.
Long term, it will pay off.Comment -
Hey STR: saw you took Hidden Scroll in the GP Derby today for Beat the Bag. I assume you looked over the form? Castellano replaces Roasrio today. I am going with the #3 Harvey Wallbanger. GL.Comment -
Florida Derby is DRF Race of the Day, the experts, Dan, Matt and Mike all took the 1- Hidden Scroll. They all think very highly of him. On paper, I like the 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10. I couldn't decide on who to take so I took the long shot, the 10- Union's Destiny (ML 30-1). I just think this year's 3 yr has NOT been very impressive and I think and I hope that being son of Union Rags, he should flourish with distance and dirt. GL.Comment -
I saw the form for about 4 races including that race. Just used a program for the other plays.
Yes, I took Hidden Scroll. Because I saw the replay and commented on it after his last race, I like his chances. Just could not find a longshot that I could settle on to beat him although the 2 horse I found interesting.
GL with your plays Easy.Comment -
Any thoughts or comments on the FLA Derby STR? Do you think Maximum Secuirty can get the 10 panels in the KY Derby?Can a horse that broke his MDN in a 16K claimer go on to win the big race?Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 03-30-19, 08:57 PM.Comment -
I will answer them in reverse.
The 16k claimer does not know he ran for 16 so I would not consider that. If that value had been established through racing, then no. But because it was his 1st race, I don't put any credence in it at all.
As for the Fla. Derby, I thought the race was over somewhere between 24 and change and 48 and change. The race was one of those races where any pace fell apart and a closer had no chance.
I hate to take away from the winner but there was no test for him, or the 70-1 shot who plodded around 2nd. Hidden Scrolls race was over going into the 1st turn. Fighting dirt and the rider, it was a wasted effort. I do get what they were trying to do but in my mind, the post position took that option away. I was surprised that they tried that with the way the race set up.
Can Maximum Security get a mile and a 1/4? If he is allowed to walk the dog like he did on a speed friendly track, why not. But I cannot imagine that he could get that type of trip in Ky.
I have felt since last year that the winner of the Ky. Derby would probably come out of Calif. Of course, because of it shutting down, they had to scatter, but you know what I mean and which horses I am talking about.
As of now, that is the place where I am looking for the winner at Churchill Downs in early May.
Thanks Easy.Comment -
hey str
just curious if you agree with what I said in my thread about the figure on the 2nd place finisher's last race being better than the top 3 contenders and the fact he did at 7f makes him a little interesting at that price.. to me that extra furlong does it.. if it was a 6f race wouldn't consider himComment -
there where 4 speed horses...All but the winner took back...Jocks-trainers overthinking as the longer you go the closer to pace they need to be...Winner looks to be a poor mans Shackleford and probably will turn back to 7-8 Furlongs after Derby flop...So Far this apperas to be a below average 3 years old crop....If Game Winner wins prep he goes off at shortest derby favorite in a while based on quality of competitionComment -
str.. would it be fair to say if he flops in the derby but comes out of it in good shape that you don't want to be sitting with a horse like this ..if he's in good enough shape to run back in 5 weeks they might consider doing it .. waiting till the end of July for saratoga a long time on the sidelines.. realize there are other spots but don't you think they'd want to win a higher profile 3yo sprint with him ?Comment -
IMO, with the interruption in training along with pointing for a max effort in early May, I thought both horses ran very well. Neither one was geared up for those races and had their training altered which is a big deal when off time.
Improvement expected next out for both where they will be at about 85%-90% ready for a peak performance.Comment -
After that mess of a performance it is hard to say what Mott will be pointing for. Didn't he need the points to get into the Derby? I thought he can not get into the Derby without winning but I'm probably wrong.
The time off thing totally depends on the primary objective.
It's really hard to second guess Mott. He's THAT good, but maybe getting off the Derby trail and just letting the horse find himself is the way to go. That would mean the major test would await at the Breeders Cup. So how do you get there? IMO, the horse needs to establish himself through winning. Right now, the horse is confused IMO. Also IMO , I keep going back to the thing I said a month ago. He is by Hard Spun. Let him be who he is. He wants the lead or an outside very little if any dirt in his face, clean right eye trip.
Get back to basics seems like a logical plan too me.
But... if the triple crown is still on the minds of the owner or trainer they could shoot for the Preakness. Always a chance it comes up sloppy, which he obviously loves. Also typically comes up thin in terms of a big field. If that was the objective, he needs a two turn race that he can dominate. Should be plenty of those around to choose from if they decide to take a swing at the Preakness.
Over the years the triple crown has forced many a out of character decision by owners and trainers. It will be interesting to see which direction they go.Comment -
Just how good is the Florida Derby (G1) winnerMaximum Security? The odds makers at William Hill US aren't taking any risks, installing the Jason Servis trainee as the co-favorite for the2019 Kentucky Derbyexiting Saturday's race.Game Winner
Maximum Security dropped from 60-1 to 4-1, matching the lowest price on the board with, the champion 2-year-old who headlines Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1). Others with short odds include Improbable (6-1), Instagrand (7-1) and Code of Honor (8-1).
So STR I guess you would not recommend Maximum Security at 4/1?
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It is hard for me to like Maximum Security . It's really not fair to the horse though. All he did was what he was asked to do. And, he did it well. That said, the pace was easy as was the trip. Just seems to me that it will be a lot different in Ky. And because he will be bet down, unless he is solo in the Derby, I probably will not use him.Comment -
The only problem with 5 weeks is, typically after the triple crown, the horses get a break before pointing for the Breeders Cup. It's hard to figure which direction the connections might choose to go. If they were looking to shorten up, Saratoga would fit and yes it's a wait but are they pointing for a mile in the Breeders Cup?
Will they still think he can go long like the classic? I just don't know. But rule of thumb is, when they win like he did and then if he gets well beaten in the Derby, won't they blame the pace, the track, whatever and still think he can get long races? And who knows, maybe he can. Man I just don't know. I guess it will be about how he loses and if he loses in the Derby. Really hard to say. I mean, he did get 1 1/8th. Albeit a slow pace and an easy trip, but he did do it.
With all the money both purses and breeding status in the long races, it will be hard for them to decide he is a miler. Just too much money in the Haskell, Whitney, Woodward, etc. I think.
Good problem to have though right?Comment -
yes absolutely.. with this owner whose been around this game forever breeding and buying I think he would tend to adjust quicker to reality than a more novice one.. he's also got game winner to keep him entertained...i could see a win or good effort by gw and a mediocre to bad effort by ms being enough to start him on another path..understand the sprints don't carry the status and money of the big route races.. could also see something like a mediocre effort in the derby and not give up on 2 turns right away ...give him a breather and consider the haskell on july 20 (been moved uo a couple of weeks this year).. heck with me knocking him like this he's probably a mortal lock in the derby lolComment -
hey str
would like your opinion on post 46 in my "kentucky derby future bet " thread..my horse "tax" was the lone 3rd horse behind the dueling speedsters in the wood memorial
46:4 1:11:2...5 lengths off at the 6f mark
if you happen to know about the timeform numbers that'd be great alsoLast edited by JBEX; 04-08-19, 12:48 PM.Comment -
Great thread. It's entirely possible these questions have already been addressed, but here they are:
1) Do you think post position is generally over-valued or under-valued by bettors? Is it a much bigger deal based on surface?
2) Does a horse react differently psychologically after a win vs. a close race out of the money? Do horses want to get to the lead inherently or are they just running based on rewards during training?
3) Why might a horse run on a week's rest or less?
4) Can you discuss Lasix and blinkers -- what goes into using them and the effect on a horse's performance?
5) It seems like older horses have a worse average ROI than younger horses (2-5 year olds). Are there any conditions (rest, distance, surface, etc.) that you think are better for older horses?
6) What's the deal with Kitten and Tiz being in so many horse names?
Thanks!Comment -
This might not be something you would know, but maybe someone else in the thread does: what happens when someone dumps $5k on a longshot at a tiny track using an offshore book like BetOnline? Do they lay off this bet somehow (and move the track odds massively) or just let it ride?Comment -
Good questions Barrakuda. Some of your questions have been addressed in the thread. Go to post #3302 in this thread for a rundown on the Lasix issue. As for your offshore question I can help somewhat there until STR arrives. The Offshore book most likely has limits on how much you can bet and win depending on the track. Any offshore book I have used (about 5) would not take a 5K wager at a small track. GL.Comment -
Q. sometimes i think when the pace is that quick the advantage becomes less because the front collapses quicker and you're drawn in sooner than you normally would be..but this a supposition by me and could be wrong about that
A. While this is true, the horse is drawn in without urging if indeed there is a collapse up front, which is usually a good thing unless the horse is a loafer, who when they make the lead, start to decelerate. 90% of the time, it is a fine scenario.
I think one of my favorite positions I could see in a race going long was when my horse was sitting 3rd alonge, with two horses dueling and going too fast up front. Hard not to smile a little going down the backside while using the binoculars.
Q. on the timeform ratings they take into account the pace of the race I believe..if that's so that means that tax's figure might not be exactly 1 length less than tacitus..could be more or less probably the latter..is that how it works?
A. I do know that timeform does take pace into consideration. Different figure makers use different reasoning for numbers. So comparing them as the same can be tricky or misleading at times.
Here is a link that explains how it works.
https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/figure-makers-timeformus-injects-pace-into-the-race/
I am a firm believer that pace makes the race. Maybe if I trained all graded stakes horses or something else, I would feel differently. But my bread and butter was claiming horses. And there is no doubt in my mind that pace makes the race. It just does. No two ways about it as far as claimers go. IMO, of course.Comment
