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Q. 1) Do you think post position is generally over-valued or under-valued by bettors? Is it a much bigger deal based on surface?
A. Both, depending on the track set up , the position of the gate and the running style of the horses in those post positions.
From my experience the inside posts typically get over played. One thing that can be overlooked is a controlling outside speed in a sprint ( just one turn) that can dictate what the inside riders will have to do to not get cut off into the far turn. That is a scenario I refer to as
" the box".
As for small money players, most have favorite numbers they play in triples, etc. Maybe it's ,1,3,5 or 2,4,8 but I have never heard of anyone that has a 10,11, 12 in their favorite numbers, mostly because often times they would not apply. Because these pools can be much smaller than the win pools, depending on the track I suppose, those tickets can knock a price down or help build one up depending on the outcome. I know it's not much, but it's all about the math. And if the value exists or not. And that translates to any sport and any type of bet. Not for any one event, but for the long run, which is the true test of winning or losing. not one card.
So, depending on the gate position and the styles of the horses in those positions, sometimes the inside can be overbet.
As for the surface, of course, any bias would skew an outcome, but all things being equal, if you see the results of post positions for a length of time, they usually do tell a fairly accurate story as to how important or not, certain post positions are at that particular track. But that is only a tool not the full answer.
Q. 2) Does a horse react differently psychologically after a win vs. a close race out of the money? Do horses want to get to the lead inherently or are they just running based on rewards during training?
A. Absolutely. I speak about this often in the thread.
As for wanting the lead, it's all about the personality of the horse which usually is at least somewhat molded by their bloodlines. Case in point, a speed sire that did not run well when hooked early will rarely have an offspring that will. Training can help a horse along with a certain dislike but only so much. If they don't feel comfortable doing something, or running on a particular surface, most simply won't.
Q. 3) Why might a horse run on a week's rest or less?
A. Because they either came out of the race GREAT, or did not try at all and showed no ill effects from running. In almost all cases, running back very quickly is a positive and should not be dismissed by the customer without plenty of thought.
Q. 4) Can you discuss Lasix and blinkers -- what goes into using them and the effect on a horse's performance?
This thread is really long after eight years of questions and answers but you can do a keyword search and it might help find answers that pertain to these two areas. The keyword search is on the right hand side of the page above your inbox. They are both really important as far as the handicapper goes IMO so I suggest key wording them or better still, consider this thread a good ( hopefully) book to read and every time you have some downtime, read a page or two. Not all of the Q and A's are helpful but plenty of them are I hope. If you really want to learn about the game, not so much what handicappers can talk about but what people that you usually do not have access to can explain, take the time to read through it. I am fairly certain that it will help you better understand what you are seeing when you watch a race.
Q. 5) It seems like older horses have a worse average ROI than younger horses (2-5 year olds). Are there any conditions (rest, distance, surface, etc.) that you think are better for older horses?
A. Maybe they do if bet on every time, but in my experience, If every race was a 4 and up claimer, I might think I was in heaven. I say that because I claimed, trained, and won with more older claimers than I did babies or young horses. And if I didn't, it sure felt that way.
I find those races easier to put together and easier to understand. But, my handicapping is also limited because of my experience, or lack thereof in that, I was a one track at a time guy. And I was not there betting everyday. People that bet multiple tracks can probably handicap circles around me. I focus on detail and little things. I did when at the track, and I do today in real estate. But what I understand in a certain venue might be all wrong in another venue. Each track, each area in real estate is different, or has the ability to be. I do not assume I know anything until I know that I do. That has served me well in both careers . But, it also limits me to a certain extent. And while I realize that, it is my opinion that the pros outway the cons as far as I am concerned.
Q. 6) What's the deal with Kitten and Tiz being in so many horse names?
A. Those are derived from the horses sires names Kitten's Joy and Tiznow.
Lastly, if you are just looking for picks, some of the people in here are very solid. I am not your guy for that.
But if you want to know what is going on and why in a race, this thread is what you are looking for. If so, take the time to read it. I am confident that if you read and understand what is within this thread, you will see much more within the race than you ever have before.
Thanks for the questions.
Hope this helps.Last edited by str; 04-10-19, 08:25 AM.Comment -
The kittens and cat names many many are Ramsey owner or mike maker trainee....kittens joy I saw run few times at Arlington park...Incredible horseComment -
What do you think the future holds for Santa Anita and Los Alamitos race tracks? I think Santa Anita is finished. The land is worth much more today than it was 5 years ago. There is already one mall across from the parking lot. It is a perfect place for Condo's. Horse Racing is basically a dying industry in Southern California. If Los Al puts in a Turf Course, then Santa Anita is totally expendable.Comment -
Santa Anita is the great race place...no way it shuts down. they will fix issues may have to reconfigure turf sprint course but no way it closes...my greatest memory was there when we road tripped when I lived In Phoenix....I went to windows right at post and put 1k across board on Laffit Pincay ridden horse 6/5...he was co favorite with another horse 6/5.....left the teller window walking down towards track teller comes running at me yelling...he actually gave me 2K across on accident....by time we got back to window race over Laffit wired em easy win and other fav off board paid 4.40 4.40 4.20...I paid teller out of ticket the 3 k and made an extra 3k plus...those where the days! Love the great race place....another great memory was watching live best pal and Desormeaux win the big cap that was incredible....Comment -
het str
tony dutrow has a horse in aqu R8, an alw n1x for 3yof @ 1 mile on the turf..he won his last start which was his first try on the turf in november @ aqueduct (4th career start) broke last from the rail and looks he overcame a lot of problems in the stretch to get up by a neck.. $270k yearling purchase with a big time pedigree.. thought you might be interestedComment -
You seem to overlook the obvious facts. First, the Stronach family is in a messy divorce, ala the Sterling family of the NBA Clippers fame. Like the Sterling, the family feud is hot and heavy. Frank, the Patriarch of the family, is suing his daughter, Belinda, who basically runs the show. The lawsuit, which is more than 300 Million, is much more than the track is worth as it stands now, but would be in the financial neighborhood if the track was closed and room was made for a condominium project that Papa wants to see go in it's place. The track always ran second behind Hollywood Park, which is now where the new Rams Stadium sits. Now Del Mar easily surpasses Santa Anita in average daily attendance, and average take. The track itself is in bad shape. Since there is so much in quarreling among the family members, no one wants to spend nearly what it would cost to make the track suitable for long periods of racing. Finally, the State of California continues to raise Property taxes at an alarming rate. Democrats have never seen a dollar that they do not want 80 cents of to go into their pockets. The worth of the property as it stands now, will continue to decrease as the taxes go up and up. It only makes sense to dump this loser now, and grab all of the profits you can. Horse Racing is dying in California, and no one really gives a crap about that except for the few who are actually involved in the industry. That will not cut it.Comment -
I do not know much about Santa Anita. I never was out there. If indeed the numbers are dwindling there, maybe that is the business plan. I must admit I have never been a fan of the Stronach outfit and the infighting will only make times more trying than they already are.
Hard to believe that Cal. would want racing to cease completely but again, I don't pay much attention to Cal. racing. Being from the east coast and very active during the east west rivalry, I always had a dislike for cal. racing. I do respect it, but can't say much else positive about it. Sorry I can't help more but I just do not know.Comment -
Thanks for the heads up. Just looked at the chart. Ran 4th and off 6 months and probably training up there which has many interruptions do to weather and track condition, probably a decent 1st effort. If the horse has ability you should see an improvement next out but the 3rd race back will really tell the tale moving forward in all probability.
Thanks again JBEX.Comment -
Thanks for the tremendously detailed replies, str. I've been betting sports for 25 years, but have only looked at horses fairly recently. I made it through about 10 pct of the thread and plan to keep going.
I am mostly a technical handicapper, but I def plan to learn more about horses and how/why they run the way they do.Comment -
hey str
I was looking up the pedigree of winx to see how much of the major sire lines she has..turns out interestingly enough she has very little northern dancer in her bloodlines..the 2nd dam's sire's is a son of northern dancer and that's it..
it also happened to be a very minor one of his son's that i'd
never even heard probably because of the aussie slant..but reason i'm bringing this up is I looked up voodoo rhythm (that son of nd) and his 42nd birthday was 2 weeks ago !! did you ever know of a horse who made 40
? think nd was a stud till late 80's but on a limited (outrageously expensive) basis..maybe there's a couple others still around but amazed at this one
another interesting note is winx and zenyatta are both by street cry..didn't think about that till the past few daysLast edited by JBEX; 04-13-19, 02:12 PM.Comment -
That is interesting about the Northern Dancer lack of blood. Seems like it would be kinda hard to do these days.
42 years old. Wow !!
I have heard of horses that can live that long but the rule of thumb is about 28 which is a ripe old age. I never saw a horse live that old that I knew of, only what I would hear about. I remember hearing that some horse made it into the 60's a long time ago. Hard to believe but if you googled it, it would probably come up.
Both by Street Cry. That's pretty impressive as well. I did not pick up on that either.Comment -
yes these days tough to have that little northern dancer in your bloodlines.. as I mentioned in littlekona's Winx thread the leading aussie sire snitzel by contrast sire and dam has strands of nd through the maternal and paternal paths so 4 altogether in the first 5 generations.. the other extreme.. also frankel is double northern dancer but of course these two are through his crem de la creme sons
speaking of street cry he's by machavelian who was a top euro sire in his day (6 figure stud fee).. another generation back machavelian is by mr prospector out of a "halo" mare.. between this and sunday silence who was like the northern dancer of japan that's a huge passing down of the bloodlines to say the least.. sure there's others also but guessing those are two of the bigger ones . just mention this because remember you telling me you beat halo Ina stakes race shipping to monmouth in the early 70's.. if I remember without looking it was the week after secretariat won the beomontComment -
halo as a sire.. impressive resume
on a side note his great great grandsire nearco (1935) is the most influential bloodline through all north american pedigrees.. I'd say 85-90% of all horses trace back to him
Last edited by JBEX; 04-15-19, 08:48 AM.Comment -
apologize if i'm going overboard but find this stuff fascinating..the initial choice to mate to nearco's dam (nogara) was rejected and they wound up going with his full brother (pharos instead of fairway)..pharos was a smaller,blockier speed type horse and also a champion sire..that decision could have affected the entire breed as we know it into modern times..
back in the 70's-80's talking about nearco was like talking about mr prospector, northern dancer and bold ruler now..
if I had add one more name to that it would be hail to reason (1958) who was reponsible for halo and many other sires who sired sires and quality dam siresComment -
"the initial choice to mate to nearco's dam (nogara) was rejected and they wound up going with his full brother (pharos instead of fairway)..pharos was a smaller,blockier speed type horse and also a champion sire..that decision could have affected the entire breed as we know it into modern times."
Very true. When you think about it, decisions made along the way in all shapes of life have paved the way of life as we all know it.
Some good, some bad.
Humans hold the keys to the kingdom. They always have. What we do with it will ultimately be humanities reward or failure.
Hate to be so deep as it rings a bit eerie but .... it's the truth.
"back in the 70's-80's talking about nearco was like talking about mr prospector, northern dancer and bold ruler now..
if I had add one more name to that it would be hail to reason (1958) who was responsible for halo and many other sires who sired sires and quality dam sires".
In the 70's, I rarely remember people actually talking about Nearco. I think it was a given in that he was all over the place. But Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler were all the rage. They were royalty . Funny but Hail To Reason was not in the group of those three but yes, he was very influential as you pointed out. Seems as though he got more respect after his group started to perform as sires and like you said, sire of sires and broodmares.
The only knock on Mr. Prospector was his offspring would typically have knee issues. And people would say that they could not get more than a mile. I think that was finally proven wrong but that was the talk in the early to mid 70's. The other two, I don't recall any knocks whatsoever. Pretty incredible when you think about it. I mean , back then, trainers who were ALL way older than I was when I first started out, and both trainers and breeders were some kind of pessimistic. I guess it was the era they grew up in but talk about a bunch of grumpy old men. Those guys would knock Santa Claus. Just a different generation I guess. And the age gap between me and all of them was huge. Most were in their 40's at least and up to 80's and I started at 21. It's a lot different today. Many more younger trainers.
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I think the imporant fact here is the 4 above mentioned deceased stallions represent a very high % of the blood flowing through modern thoroughbreds and all go back to nearco in one way or another.. thought of a not nearco rooted stallion who had some decent success .. "in reality" and a couple of his son's off the top of my head valid appeal and relaunch who were two excellent stallions for a long time.. sure you came across a couple of them and maybe even claimed one over the years you trained.. the latter I know could do it on either surface and valid appeal was a speed sire as I'm sure you know
interesting how trainers generally started at a later age when you began at a young age.. frank whiteley
might have been an example of that.. he was born in 1915 but his big horses from what I read didn't start happening till the mid 1960's..so either he worked under someone for a while or it took some time for him to get big horses.. I think I remember it saying in wikipedia or somewhere that he was involved in the game at a young age so his path would be interesting to knowComment -
""in reality" and a couple of his son's off the top of my head valid appeal and relaunch who were two excellent stallions for a long time.. sure you came across a couple of them and maybe even claimed one over the years you trained."
I saw hardly any In Reality's. Seems to me they were in Florida and on the grass a lot. Not sure I saw any in Md. running for a tag.
Saw a handful of Relaunch's. Most were allowance or stakes horses. But again, not that many.
There were plenty of Valid Appeals around. They were indeed fast, blocky types. I am sure I claimed at least one of those but not very many. They seemed to be unsound by the time they got into the claiming ranks. Many wore fronts, and not that many ran in fronts back then. They also bled and seemed to have breathing problems. So you had to be careful with claiming those . Lastly, they tended to put on weight easily. So the problem with that was, if they were a bit unsound, needed lots of work between starts to get right, you could not train them too hard. That allowed the weight to crepe up and there is nothing that spells problems more than an overweight bleeding sprinter with a breathing problem who is not quite fit enough. What a nightmare scenario that is.
"interesting how trainers generally started at a later age when you began at a young age.. frank whiteley might have been an example of that.. he was born in 1915 but his big horses from what I read didn't start happening till the mid 1960's..so either he worked under someone for a while or it took some time for him to get big horses."
Mr. Whiteley became a trainer when he was 21. But the problem was, he could not get any clients. That was the problem for any young trainer. It was an older mans game.
He probably spend some time as a trainer working in Camden S.C. prepping babies for someone . You would see that with younger trainers. But 21 when he did it, was way younger than 21 when I did it. Most only had very slow maidens or horses they had bought for a dollar. They would work for someone and hustle feed, and bedding from the person they worked for while trying to train one horse when and if the opportunity arose.
I was very lucky. I started with a string of 10 and won right away. Coming from being an asst. trainer for the world's leading trainer the year before and winning right away allowed the writers a good story. I got plenty of ink early and before you knew it, the phone started ringing. Like I said, I got real lucky. And riding CJ with the bug a lot didn't hurt a bit. I can assure you I won some races early that I never would have won with another rider. Yep, CJ was THAT good.
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i'm amazed at the knowledge you have of the weaknesses of some stallions.. I asked you about one a while back (forget who) and you gave me an answer similar to this one.. is this something there'd be a general consensus on amongst trainers (particular sire) or each might have his/her own opinion ? where there some sires going in you would say "yeah that's a positive" and then evaluate all the other things that are important in making your decision.. just curious if that's true who they were.. now that I think about it just came to me who I asked you about before..allens prospect
that had to be a high at a young age starting off so fast and getting noticed by the press..did andy beyer ever write about you.. what was he washington post? had to think about cj for a second but realized it's
chris mccarron..yes sure that didn't hurt your chancesComment -
Q. is this something there'd be a general consensus on amongst trainers (particular sire) or each might have his/her own opinion ?
A. that was one of those things I didn't talk much about unless asked. I knew that I was going to be claiming a lot of horses so I kept mental and eventually written notes until I had them memorized, about the breeding of the horses I claimed. That would allow me to look at future claims which I did every race, everyday and actually in some cases see more and look at certain areas a little harder. Over time, certain tendencies cropped up. I was at the paddock looking at horses every day. I marked the program with notes on everyone. Still have a Bowie meeting of marked programs from 79. That meet was special to me. Really glad I saved those.
I would always refer back to my previous programs for my notes. Always had about a years programs saved in order, so as to find horses quickly. Kind of like an encyclopedia for Md. claimers.
Q. where there some sires going in you would say "yeah that's a positive" and then evaluate all the other things that are important in making your decision. just curious if that's true who they were.. now that I think about it just came to me who I asked you about before..allens prospect
A. Or more often than not, yeah, that's a negative and then go back and see if it applied. Do remember, it was Md. in the 70's and 80's so the royal bred horses were not there in most cases. But yes, I knew every stallion in Md. , Va., and W.Va. and had my own book on all of them. I knew of other stallions as well , but only when those horses ran in Md. for a claiming price.
If you name the sire I am familiar with, I will tell you what I had on them as far as offspring problems is concerned. Hopefully I can remember them Lol.
Q. that had to be a high at a young age starting off so fast and getting noticed by the press.
A. It was good but I was so intent on focusing on the moment that I never enjoyed it to be honest. Winning ? of Course. But the press? Honestly it became a pain fairly quickly and after one rotten article where I was misquoted and totally taken out of context, unless I trusted the writer, I tried to keep things very vanilla.
Q. did andy beyer ever write about you.what was he washington post?
A. I never sat down for an interview with him but I'm sure he wrote an article or two. He was the Wash. Daily News when I first started but moved over to the Wash. Post a few years later.
Q. had to think about cj for a second but realized it's
chris mccarron..yes sure that didn't hurt your chances
A. The things he got horses to do were simply incredible. He was beyond belief.Comment -
let me throw one at you but think he may been a little too late..1990 foal but believe he was one of the best in maryland during his era.."not for love" mr p and a half to private account who was a great sire..what a pedigree ! with that timing though seems like you it might not have been till the early 2000's before his progeny were running in claimers on a steady basisComment -
hey str
charlestown has their big day tomorrow which includes the $1M classic.. prado won last year and he's riding the same horse again this year #7 something awesome (12-1).. it's sloppy there now and looks like it'll be wet all day there tomorrow.. anything in general to look for as far as biases go under these conditions?Comment -
I do remember him running but yes, I was gone before his offspring started running.
I think he started out at a very modest price at first. Probably less than 5k to breed to in the beginning. What a bargain.
His grand dam was Numbered Account. She along with Hoist The Flag were a huge part of me getting interested in the game back when I was in high school.Comment -
For the most part in all probability no. Of course, speed but that is a constant there. But when the race sets up fairly you can close there much easier than Timonium. I have written of the other reasons why the big T can fool riders that try and close.
One thing to watch for. Going 4 1/2F. the outside posts will almost always outbreak the field. The key to that is how hard the inside horses have to work to get up into the pocket that will close at the far turn. It has always been a nice advantage being outside leaving that chute. doesn't always equate to a win but it is indeed an advantage.
But all things being equal, I never found CT to be that big a bias when sloppy which you might think it would be. It's all about the grading and depth and a quick look at last night's chart should tell you all you need to know.
Read the comments as to positioning but my guess is you could save a little ground here and there but close if you have the ability.
All they will do today is float it and seal it. No grading today after yesterday's rain.Comment -
yeah I thought he might have been a little late for you.. the pedigree info I gave was a little off.. mr p but not a half to private account but out of a half to private account by northern dancer.. dance number was dam and she was a big time runner which is no surprise with that pedigree.. remember seeing hoist the flag early on when I was capping.. he was foaled in 1969 and outside of that nearco lineage I believe
charlestown looked pretty fair yesterday.. shame it has to be bad weather on their big day ...actually been there a few times about 15 years ago visiting a friend in fredrick maryland.. cool little track and the ride out there was very nice.. farms, hilly and if I remember correctly you cross a bridge an are driving alongside a river for a bitComment -
You actually cross two bridges in about 5 minutes. The larger 1st on is the Potomac River and the 2nd one is the Shenandoah River.
Very scenic especially in the fall.
Been down that road about a thousand times. Lol.
Weather should be great today. I'm about an hour and twenty away and there is blue skies and 70's here. Just the track will be off but there is a steady breeze so they might be able to harrow and have a fast track for the big race.Comment -
just looked at R5.. 4½ furlongs 3yo statebred stakes.. would you believe that 99/160 races at this distance were wire jobs.. amazing.. post positions very fair.. gonna go with #2 vic's pic (4-1) seems like he's the speed of the speed.. he's by a $1k sire...just curious if you've ever heard of michael sterling.. he's the breeder /owner/trainerComment -
He was training when I was. Didn't know him but he did train up there and ran an occasional horse in Md. A lot of owner/trainer/breeders up there.
That 4 1/2 F. stat is a bit skewed because of all the maidens they run at that distance I'm pretty sure. But have not paid attention up there in years.Comment -
makes sense about the sprints.. I rarely look at it on a regular basis.. a lot of the races surrounding the big one are statebred stakes.. in one of those 2 entries are homebreds.. one by scat daddy ($100k fee)
and the other by ghostzapper ($85k fee).. both about 6yo as I don't have it in front of me now.. the former won his stallion fee back although I think when they paid it it was significantly less than it was recently (SD deceased).. the gz has won $440k and is something like 33-14-9-8..pretty sure ghostzapper that far back was 20-30k cheaper fee.. still allowance purses are small but the statebred stakes program as you know is very lucrative..they're obviously happy with their decision to go premium sireComment -
one of the horses I picked today.. thought it was a solid effort first try 2 turns on the grass restraint backstretch.. between horses into the far turn and seemed to have a lot of horse throughout the stretch... below was my write-up so you have some background.. wanted your opinion
R9 #6 notorious nick (10-1)
one of my favorite angles expensive relative to pedigree info applies here.. couple of useful sprints first 2 starts, blinkers off (trainer excels) for this and stretches out on the turf.. solid steady works and solid turf jockey fergal lynch rides
Last edited by JBEX; 04-21-19, 05:38 PM.Comment -
Geez, what a weirdly run race.one of the horses I picked today.. thought it was a solid effort first try 2 turns on the grass restraint backstretch.. between horses into the far turn and seemed to have a lot of horse throughout the stretch... below was my write-up so you have some background.. wanted your opinion
R9 #6 notorious nick (10-1)
one of my favorite angles expensive relative to pedigree info applies here.. couple of useful sprints first 2 starts, blinkers off (trainer excels) for this and stretches out on the turf.. solid steady works and solid turf jockey fergal lynch rides
Seems your horse was a solid pick but too many things to overcome to win that race.
The horse is just learning and relax is not quite understood yet. That could be a byproduct of the blks. on the 1st two races, I don't know for sure though. He was trying to relax, but was not doing too good of a job of it early on and that rider on the outside sends his horse at the 5/8ths pole. Weird. Then, the other outside horse decides to send. Again, weird. Your horse had every chance to quit and be discouraged but did not. Ran well but had a very tough trip dealing with all that took place.
He is probably worth a bet back unless bet down at the same level. Hopefully he can lay just off the pace, relax a bit more and go when asked. Looks like he should be able to do that. Maybe his next race will be more typical instead of horses running for the lead all down the backside.
As for the angle, you know I like stretch outs and he did not disappoint. I have to admit, I have never understood blks. off very well. I guess it was because I started my horses out with them off 95% of the time and added them when and if needed. I see no point in running a firster in blinkers unless you are all out to win 1st time out or the horse is somewhat goofy about their surroundings. But plenty of people do it so I guess it's all about how you learned the game.
All in all, a solid try and play as far as I'm concerned.
Nice job JBEX.Comment
