yeah it's a real dice roll at this point and the time of year definitely helps the seller ..one end could be a maybe average /above avg stallion (15-30M I would guess) and the other possibly a nice career and maybe an inexpensive one (3-5M ?..maybe that's too high)..plus purse money..have to think the big pedigree a positive also in this situation
Horse Racing questions and answers
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JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4831Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4832yeah it's a real dice roll at this point and the time of year definitely helps the seller ..one end could be a maybe average /above avg stallion (15-30M I would guess) and the other possibly a nice career and maybe an inexpensive one (3-5M ?..maybe that's too high)..plus purse money..have to think the big pedigree a positive also in this situation
have to think a win here and a good effort or win in the florida derby you've done well..understand there's worse scenarios also that could make him worth very little such as an injury or average career starting with this raceComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4833I think it's a very tough scenario for the 7 and i agree hooking the 1 not a good idea..maybe take back a little if possible since the 1 isn't distance tested..that's usually not a good situation though for the stalking horse I find ..probably set it up nice for gh if the pace is fair and the 1 is not up to the distance
also saw there will be a significant wind from the southeast at 14- 17 mph with gusts up to 23..this track is north/south oriented with the grandstand facing the ocean so this could possibly be a factor..guess that would favor the speed ?
Hope that makes sense.
BTW, One of several reasons that Pimlico has favored speed greatly on some days since forever. Pimlico sits on top of a hill, (It's called old hilltop for a reason) and the wind more often than not, blows from west to east, especially in springtime when they always ran there, meaning from the wire towards the 1/4 pole. Was really hard to rally into that strong wind some days.Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4834I wanted to note one more thing about your horse. I saw his picture winning his last race in Florida. His equipment is a D bit. That's it! That is rare to see. No nose band, shadow roll, tongue tie, blinkers, bandages, nothing.
If you look at pictures of horses winning or just after the race you would notice that very very few run with so little equipment.
It is so cool to see this horse running with just a D bit. That is the most non severe, non corrective bit there is. It's basically a shoe string with reins.
Way back in the day, the old timers would tell me that a sign of a "good" horse was one that would run in just a D bit. And they said that that was just so the rider won't fall off. Lol.
Win or lose, thought you might like knowing that.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4835So if the wind is blowing UP the stretch meaning the same direction that the horses are running, from the 1/4 pole towards the wire, then it would favor helping the closer more. If it is blowing DOWN the stretch meaning from the wire towards the 1/4 pole where they turn for home that means they are running into the wind and that would benefit the speed horse more so than a closer.
Hope that makes sense.
BTW, One of several reasons that Pimlico has favored speed greatly on some days since forever. Pimlico sits on top of a hill, (It's called old hilltop for a reason) and the wind more often than not, blows from west to east, especially in springtime when they always ran there, meaning from the wire towards the 1/4 pole. Was really hard to rally into that strong wind some days.
it is the latter scenario so if anything it'll aid the speed..says the gusts are supposed to end a little before the race so that's a good thing..I use nws site for weatherComment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4836I wanted to note one more thing about your horse. I saw his picture winning his last race in Florida. His equipment is a D bit. That's it! That is rare to see. No nose band, shadow roll, tongue tie, blinkers, bandages, nothing.
If you look at pictures of horses winning or just after the race you would notice that very very few run with so little equipment.
It is so cool to see this horse running with just a D bit. That is the most non severe, non corrective bit there is. It's basically a shoe string with reins.
Way back in the day, the old timers would tell me that a sign of a "good" horse was one that would run in just a D bit. And they said that that was just so the rider won't fall off. Lol.
Win or lose, thought you might like knowing that.Comment -
littlekonaSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-19-15
- 5241
#4837watch relay of race 2 Santa Anita PUBILIUS SYRUS #4 is tiny LOLComment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4840While I have my issues with Beyers, and Beyer for that matter Lol, ( not really, he is who I thought he would be), here is my way of looking at it.
In no particular order:
This was the only 2 turn dirt race that day. Absolutely nothing to use as a comparison except sprints. Those sprints will usually show a bit flashier times . Not always, but often enough. So the number has to be given based on assumption, correct? If so, I would argue that all day.
The horse broke a step slow for sure and took a 1/16th to find it's early stride. That will have to stop to have a decent chance in the Derby. Keep an eye out for that.
Was 4 wide around the far turn and ran 23 3/5ths. Pretty sure his numbers do not take wide into account. But.. to be fair, the horse might not have had it in him to run the same speed down inside. We don't know that either way, but I have never been all about saving ground. It truly depends on the horses ability to run inside and some simply do not extend themselves in nearly the same fashion when inside instead of outside.
The horse ran 24 2/5ths,(I would speed that up be a 1/5th or two based on the poor break), 23 1/5th, 23 3/5ths, 24 2/5ths, and 6 3/5ths.
I view that as a damn good start based on the horses breeding. Why do I say breeding?
Because this stat is pretty big IMO:
The sire has had a son or grandson win or place in the Belmont in each of the past 7 years.
The second dam is Better than Honour, who produced 2 consecutive Belmont winners in 2006 and 2007.
What that says to me is that this horse is NOT MADE to fly around a 1 1/16th race. ( Sure wish they had a Belmont future !)
Because of these things, I don't care what the Beyer for this distance was. I don't think you should either.
Let's see what the Beyer is going a 1 1/8th down the road. This horse is made to excel at longer distances.
Also, IMO, lets see what Timeform has to say about it number wise. I have great respect for CJ Milkowski and his numbers and they do differ from Beyers sometimes.
One other thing that I have always looked at is the visual end of a race. In other words, when did I watch the race and say to myself "the race is over right there"? I used to do that all the time when I analyzed the Maryland horses for claiming and, my own horses.
I watched this race a second time to do just that and saw that at 58 seconds into the tape, IMO, the race was over. By that I mean, when it first became clear that the eventual winner was clearly going to win barring a problem. Watch it again and see if you see what I do. Watch the rider, his hands, the horse and the push button ability. I've done it forever and I know it will be hard to see but eventually, you will be able to spot this when it exists. And no, not every winner shows this. Plenty of times, it never shows or not until very late. But when a horse becomes clearly dominate within a race, it helps understand the overall effort if you can see it.
Hope this helps. Happy to follow up if necessary. Thanks JBEX.
thus is what shug said after the race as reported in the paulick report
Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4841You had me at the name. OMG, The priests in high school teaching that stuff still rings in my ears. Jeez.
As for the horse, yes, he WAS a little horse wasn't he. Watching him run he is typical for a small horse. Gutsy as can be. Always trying against bigger horses.
Most small horses will try like crazy. Can't remember one that didn't have heart when given the opportunity to compete. Once they find their level, which is usually lower because of the length of their stride vs. the bigger ones they are usually pretty consistent. More often than not, they will like the mud as well compared to the average horse. Maybe file that away for a rainy day.
Thanks for the look Kona !Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4842hey str
turfway park R7 #9 sweaty betty (30-1) lol name (post 9:16)
if you happen to get a look thought you'd find this one interesting.. the race on 1/24 (which he won at 45-1) was preceded by a race very similar to today's.. returned in 34 days then and coming back in 32 today.. the large sample numbers on this trainer are fantastic in multiple categories.. not a bunch of speed in here except for the favorite who leaves from the 12 postComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4843hey str
turfway park R7 #9 sweaty betty (30-1) lol name (post 9:16)
if you happen to get a look thought you'd find this one interesting.. the race on 1/24 (which he won at 45-1) was preceded by a race very similar to today's.. returned in 34 days then and coming back in 32 today.. the large sample numbers on this trainer are fantastic in multiple categories.. not a bunch of speed in here except for the favorite who leaves from the 12 post
Anyway, I could go through the field but who cares. I see some Penn. Nat. speed inside and the big favorite as you mentioned outside. I mean, 40-1, what the hell , like I said, if you are trying to dig out bombs, this is the type, especially at cheap venues.
Most importantly, 3rd off the layoff. Always a solid angle and the cheaper the better in my experience.
Good eye JBEX. Your mining for gold.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4844Looks to me like you are trying to dig out bombs. I never have a problem with that. And if so, you have found one IMO. Probably gets crushed but... could win. Hard to say that with a straight face but it's true. Owner / trainer is always a great place to look for someone screwing around(not that they all do) but with cheap horses, this is always one way to have one less person on board.
Anyway, I could go through the field but who cares. I see some Penn. Nat. speed inside and the big favorite as you mentioned outside. I mean, 40-1, what the hell , like I said, if you are trying to dig out bombs, this is the type, especially at cheap venues.
Most importantly, 3rd off the layoff. Always a solid angle and the cheaper the better in my experience.
Good eye JBEX. Your mining for gold.
see what happens..thanks strComment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4845the owner/trainer being a positive is interesting and get what you're saying about 1 less involved.. in general was talking about that he ran well with a similar prep a few starts back..one other thing I noticed which I didn't see before was he was involved longer before giving it up in his last race vs the prior prep race..also cutting back a half whereas the other time he was back at the same distance..if your going to shoot for bombs, over the years, there is no track like turfway..I've told this story before that they had a 10 race card a long way back where the avg win price was $57 ..of course that included a $200+ mutuel lol
see what happens..thanks strComment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4846hey str
oaklawn
R2 #8 lautrec (12-1)
thought you might find this one little interesting..things I see
ray handal a former assistant to AD..also owns the horse (wouldn't have bothered if this wasn't the case)
claimed for $7.5k at turfway (poly) and was wearing blinkers first time..didn't do much ..they come off for this race and he's a first time gelding
the churchill races 2 and 3 back would put him in the hunt here..best route jockey in the race aboard
outside posts do better in oaklawn routes
nice worked up to this race..some very slow but a few also very solidComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4847hey str
oaklawn
R2 #8 lautrec (12-1)
thought you might find this one little interesting..things I see
ray handal a former assistant to AD..also owns the horse (wouldn't have bothered if this wasn't the case)
claimed for $7.5k at turfway (poly) and was wearing blinkers first time..didn't do much ..they come off for this race and he's a first time gelding
the churchill races 2 and 3 back would put him in the hunt here..best route jockey in the race aboard
outside posts do better in oaklawn routes
nice worked up to this race..some very slow but a few also very solid
Saw it ran 3rd. I remember you mentioning that trainer before. I never did know him but sure respect the connections.
Looks like after the claim, he decided to just get the horse to start over with a new mindset. Ran a decent race. Good start to the project.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4848Sorry I missed this one JBEX.
Saw it ran 3rd. I remember you mentioning that trainer before. I never did know him but sure respect the connections.
Looks like after the claim, he decided to just get the horse to start over with a new mindset. Ran a decent race. Good start to the project.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4849hey str
chad finished a solid 2nd and 3rd in the gotham today...with a horse like "risk taking" (derby future pp's) sitting on the bench surely pointed for the wood seems like he may have some decisions to make..assuming today's came out healthy guess he may have to ship one out of town as he probably wouldn't run 3 horses in the wood memorial .. nice problem to have for any trainer though lol
all of them kee nov yearling purchases for klaravich stables who are his main clients..two cost $240k and the other $185k..whoever buys for those guys is sharp as hell (maybe owners are involved and pretty savvy themselves at this point) they've had amazing success over the years even factoring in who's training for themComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4850hey str
chad finished a solid 2nd and 3rd in the gotham today...with a horse like "risk taking" (derby future pp's) sitting on the bench surely pointed for the wood seems like he may have some decisions to make..assuming today's came out healthy guess he may have to ship one out of town as he probably wouldn't run 3 horses in the wood memorial .. nice problem to have for any trainer though lol
all of them kee nov yearling purchases for klaravich stables who are his main clients..two cost $240k and the other $185k..whoever buys for those guys is sharp as hell (maybe owners are involved and pretty savvy themselves at this point) they've had amazing success over the years even factoring in who's training for them
Another 40-1 never hurts much. And 1/2 a unit I understand as well. Makes sense to me.
Is there anything in California that makes sense to chase at a nice price? Just say that because it looks like you have the closers covered baring tough trips but there is nothing you can do about that. Maybe that’s something you can look at on derby day. Would be like a saver but maybe that dilutes the whole thing.
As for the owners of those three, it’s incredible that they had a run like that in that year. It’s like so many other things, it always seems easier than it really is when you see that. Yes, whoever he has spotting these babies and the infrastructure that is in place to figure it all out and get the right information is working and is really impressive. You can’t imagine how hard that is especially at the level they are buying. It’s a heck of an achievement.
All the best JBEX.Last edited by str; 03-07-21, 09:35 AM.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4851Sounds like he would start to separate these based on performance into the derby trail and the smaller derby trails. Plenty of places to go.
Another 40-1 never hurts much. And 1/2 a unit I understand as well. Makes sense to me.
Is there anything in California that makes sense to chase at a nice price? Just say that because it looks like you have the closers covered baring tough trips but there is nothing you can do about that. Maybe that’s something you can look at on derby day. Would be like a saver but maybe that dilutes the whole thing.
As for the owners of those three, it’s incredible that they had a run like that in that year. It’s like so many other things, it always seems easier than it really is when you see that. Yes, whoever he has spotting these babies and the infrastructure that is in place to figure it all out and get the right information is working and is really impressive. You can’t imagine how hard that is especially at the level they are buying. It’s a heck of an achievement.
All the best JBEX.
yeah I think I'm done with futures but if one of those two doesn't make it I can make another play on derby day..I'm not nuts about the california contingent ..
my 3rd choice who can stay closer to the front would be #14 mandaloun ..currently sitting @ 19-1 in the futures
take a look and see what you think ..think he has a solid resume so far
elite pedigree..
2/2 as a 2yo at the tough meets and while he didn't route like that he won at 7f..
solid 3yo debut in 1st leg of fg preps and then wins @ 1 1/8 in leg 2 with good figure..also was up close to a fast pace in that race
trained by one of the elite in brad cox
late addition ..says he was 3-4 wide both turns in the lecomte..added 2 mins afterLast edited by JBEX; 03-07-21, 10:18 AM.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4852one other thing I forgot to mention about risk taking was the figures of his last 2 races..both @ 1 1/8 at aqueduct he runs 6 ticks faster in the withers but his his figure is 6 lower than his maiden win..guess the track was very slow in his maiden win but that difference seems hard to believe ..maybe has to do with what we discussed about establishing a variant..there were two 1 1/8 races when he broke his maiden and it was the only one on the withers day cardComment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36077
#4853"I would have gotten themessage a year ago if I was atrainer, but I don't know if somepeople did," said Stuart Janney III,chairman of The Jockey Club. "It'sgreat when they are caught in theregulatory framework and penaltiesbecome more severe, but peopleneed to go to jail. This is stealing.It's not fun and games."Unfortunately we continueto see things that look to besuspicious to us," he added. "Wehave been communicating with5 Stones intelligence (a leadingprivate investigation firm retainedby The Jockey Club) and they arenot indicating that we've gotten tothe bottom of the bucket. To theextent that we have knowledge, webelieve there is a long tail to this.Maybe people are more careful ofhow they are cheating, but I don'tsee a lot of evidence that peoplehave stopped cheating."
It's frustrating STR to read sentiments like this from a Blood Horse article. I really question whether you can ever have a clean sport with the amount money involved.Comment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36077
#4854Reflective of the struggle the sport facesin stopping the use of illegal medications,sources close to the investigation say somehorsemen are now using a painkiller thathas been on the market for a considerableamount of time though a test for it has yet tobe created.ONE YEAR AFTER THEINDICTMENTS, CHEATERS STILLPROSPER(continued from page 4)(continued on page 7)Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4855"I would have gotten themessage a year ago if I was atrainer, but I don't know if somepeople did," said Stuart Janney III,chairman of The Jockey Club. "It'sgreat when they are caught in theregulatory framework and penaltiesbecome more severe, but peopleneed to go to jail. This is stealing.It's not fun and games."Unfortunately we continueto see things that look to besuspicious to us," he added. "Wehave been communicating with5 Stones intelligence (a leadingprivate investigation firm retainedby The Jockey Club) and they arenot indicating that we've gotten tothe bottom of the bucket. To theextent that we have knowledge, webelieve there is a long tail to this.Maybe people are more careful ofhow they are cheating, but I don'tsee a lot of evidence that peoplehave stopped cheating."
It's frustrating STR to read sentiments like this from a Blood Horse article. I really question whether you can ever have a clean sport with the amount money involved.
1st off: "Unfortunately we continue to see things that look to be suspicious to us," he added. " I do wonder what he is talking about. This sounds like politics at it's lowest talk. LOOK to be suspicious??? In my world from 29 years spending damn near every day on the backside, either it is, or it isn't. And nobody dare try and tell me there are not ways to stop the extreme vast majority of all this if the blue bloods and old folks that are in the position to do so, REALLY want to. All it takes is MONEY. And I am allowed to call them old folks because I am damn near that myself.
What he said: "We have been communicating with 5 Stones intelligence (a leading private investigation firm retained by The Jockey Club) and they are not indicating that we've gotten to the bottom of the bucket.
I do not know how long they have been looking but if it's been for more than a year, they are looking in the wrong places. Are any former horsemen looking into this. You know, the ones that were honest to the core??? I highly doubt it. Because if they were, you would have seen results.
Now I do not want to come off as some sort of know it all but for Christs sake, I could walk through a barn and have a good idea within 30 minutes whether or not we should be spending more time there or not. It just isn't that friggin hard.
"but I don't see a lot of evidence that people have stopped cheating." What is that supposed to mean??? Does he mean if a horse pays more than 30.00? or a claim vastly improves. Dammit, it's just not that hard to see .
Give me access to training charts, vet logs, and the horses, grooms and other workers. It won't take long Easy.
This sounds like old politics too me, meaning, lets point fingers with no hope of fixing anything. My butt! It's why I hate politics. Mealy mouth crap .
My answer is simple, stop being a bitch about it and man up and get it done! Gonna leave some big black eyes along the way though, the biggest one on the sport itself. And not just low level people or trainers and a couple of riders. You can bet it goes much deeper than that.
Yes Easy, it is frustrating to read that. Cheaters , as many know, was one on a very short list of reasons I left 20 years ago. I'll say this. It's better now than it was 20-30 years ago. Waaay better.
And if they REALLY want to clean it up, all it takes is money, and the balls to ban anyone, and I mean anyone, that can be proven that they have been and or continue to cheat. The key to all this is the word anyone. Are the big boys really ready to unearth all the garbage, some of which is right near the top?
Sorry if I get to ranting about this but it really touches a nerve with me. One that will never fully heal. And I do not want to come off as some all knowing guy but I swear, it's just not hard at all to put two and two together when doing a full overview of a barn. It's almost obvious Easy.
Hope that helps.
Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4856Reflective of the struggle the sport faces in stopping the use of illegal medications, sources close to the investigation say some horsemen are now using a painkiller that has been on the market for a considerable amount of time though a test for it has yet to be created.ONE YEAR AFTER THEINDICTMENTS, CHEATERS STILLPROSPER(continued from page 4)(continued on page 7)
As for the tests. As I have explained before, they can only find any drug if they test for it. Testing costs money, and man power. Pony up the money and that will take care of that.
Informants can be planted on the backside so easily. That has been going on since my early years at least. I'm sure longer. Money and a commitment to fix it is what is needed. But like I said, there will be some black eyes and some will no doubt be on familiar faces.
BTW, I saw another lidocaine positive showed up in Calif. That is disgraceful. Guess it was more bad hay or a groom that just got back from the dentist.
They are making something that can be attacked so easily sound soooo complex. Why is it that when I was an asst. trainer and certainly a trainer, that I knew of those that were definitely cheating but 5 stones intelligence can't find them? Hmmm.Comment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36077
#4857OK STR: thx for your take on the subject. It opened my eyes to the politics behind it. Guess it is what it is and it's a shame that some people play by the rules like you and others are in the fix. anyway thx a lot.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4858hey str
see they have the private terms stakes at laurel tomorrow.. wouldn't have remembered specifics myself but saw he was undefeated going to the derby and won his first 5 races all in maryland and went 8/9 in Maryland for his career with his only local loss being in the preakness.. remember charles hadry name in the form and without going the Google route believe he was a very solid trainer back then.. right in the heart of your career wonder if you have any recollections of that time.. guessing there was some excitement from the locals heading into the derby.. know he went on to have a solid career as a stallion also.. private account out of a bold ruler mare very nice bloodlinesLast edited by JBEX; 03-12-21, 10:37 PM.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4859sandwiched between a couple of nice runnings of the preakness also.. alysheba/bet twice the year before and sunday silence/easy goer the year afterComment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4860hey str
see they have the private terms stakes at laurel tomorrow.. wouldn't have remembered specifics myself but saw he was undefeated going to the derby and won his first 5 races all in maryland and went 8/9 in Maryland for his career with his only local loss being in the preakness.. remember charles hadry name in the form and without going the Google route believe he was a very solid trainer back then.. right in the heart of your career wonder if you have any recollections of that time.. guessing there was some excitement from the locals heading into the derby.. know he went on to have a solid career as a stallion also.. private account out of a bold ruler mare very nice bloodlinesComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4861hey str
see they have the private terms stakes at laurel tomorrow.. wouldn't have remembered specifics myself but saw he was undefeated going to the derby and won his first 5 races all in maryland and went 8/9 in Maryland for his career with his only local loss being in the preakness.. remember charles hadry name in the form and without going the Google route believe he was a very solid trainer back then.. right in the heart of your career wonder if you have any recollections of that time.. guessing there was some excitement from the locals heading into the derby.. know he went on to have a solid career as a stallion also.. private account out of a bold ruler mare very nice bloodlinesComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11517
#4863
Without question, for me, the greatest female race horse I ever saw and she was only a two year old then running in the Sorority. (If you watch a rerun of that race, I'm one of the knuckleheads standing in the stand on the outside fence at Monmouth at the 5/8ths pole gap as they run down the backside. It was feed time so I was at our barn right behind it and took a few minutes off to see the race).
She was one of only a few reasons I dedicated myself shortly thereafter, to become a trainer. Just an ordinary groom at the time. But after I walked away from that stand at Monmouth, what I saw certainly had a big hand in changing my overall mindset. And when I think about it, my mindset about what I choose to do has never really changed. Only the game has. That's a scary thought. Lol.
Thanks JBEX.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23009
#4865I sure do. But I'll spare you the "back in my day", lecture. Lol. Charlie was such a nice, kind, gentle, guy. He was hard to not like. Everyone was rooting for him with that horse. Such an unassuming guy, if you ran into him on the street, no way you have a clue that he has the favorite in the Derby coming up. He always wore that tan pancake lid of a cap on his head. He was that old school gentleman trainer minus the dressy outfit. Played the game honestly and fairly. Shame you even have to mention that but in todays world, well, you know.Comment
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