ElCapitan's 2011-2012 NHL Thread

[ElCapitan]

Whoops sorry. Typo. Too much copy and pasting.

Thanks, DJ

[mantorras77]

I just checked 5Dimes and what I see is:

V1 New Jersey Devils ML (A) +135
V1 New Jersey Devils PL (A) -220

V1 St. Louis Blues ML (A) +165
V1 St. Louis Blues PL (A) -175

[ElCapitan]

Are you on their reduced juice line set?

This is a copy/paste directly from there right now:

Sat 10/22 11 St. Louis Blues +1½ -172 +170 o5½ -112
Sat 10/22 13 New Jersey Devils +1½ -215 +145 o5 -105

[Brundle99]

+1.5 on the spread always means they are a dog.

- on the spread means they are favorite.

So according to the JM System, you play point spread if they are a dog and money line if favorite.

There is never a play on moneyline if they are a dog.

I'm only playing by JM Rules, but El Capitan has his own rule too, but currently I'm not using that.

[thelimit0310]

Got to love that NHL juice! Luckily not too many games happening at once!

[mantorras77]

Are you on their reduced juice line set?

This is a copy/paste directly from there right now:

Sat 10/22 11 St. Louis Blues +1½ -172 +170 o5½ -112
Sat 10/22 13 New Jersey Devils +1½ -215 +145 o5 -105

No sir, i'm not on the reduced juice line set...I was just posting that to tell you about your typo but you beat me to it

[soldier1047]

I was thinking...why not just play the Moneyline only and just avoid the puckline headache? It is still profitable. Just a thought

[PockyStick]

I was thinking...why not just play the Moneyline only and just avoid the puckline headache? It is still profitable. Just a thought

because the PL system is still is still a winning system(over the previous seasons), so if you like money it will be worth it to deal with this headache. Certainly no one is forcing you to do anything.

[doublej95]

I was thinking...why not just play the Moneyline only and just avoid the puckline headache? It is still profitable. Just a thought

Read the very first post in this thread to find the answer.

[soldier1047]

because the PL system is still is still a winning system(over the previous seasons), so if you like money it will be worth it to deal with this headache. Certainly no one is forcing you to do anything.

Of course, no one is forcing me. I am just making a suggestion as an alternative way to play it.

[Pakaa]

St. Louis Blues is up 2-0!

[thelimit0310]

And the first B bet of the season goes to New Jersey! Hopefully we can wrap it up next game

[Wallco99]

After extensive backtesting, as hard to swallow as it is, +1 1/2 plays on dogs is the better method overall, unlike baseball.

[ElCapitan]

V1 New Jersey Devils ML (A) +142 (1 to win 1.42) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 New Jersey Devils PL (A) -210 (2.10 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V1 St. Louis Blues ML (A) +168 (1 to win 1.68) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V1 St. Louis Blues PL (A) -175 (1.75 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Nashville Predators ML (C) +125 (2.93 to win 3.66) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Nashville Predators PL (C) -235 (15.35 to win 6.53) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Toronto Maple Leafs ML (B) +110 (1.82 to win 2) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Toronto Maple Leafs PL (B) -260 (7.59 to win 2.92) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 4(A)-0(B)-0(C) (+3.33)
V1 PL: 4(A)-0(B)-0(C) (+0.90)

V2 ML: 4(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+4.00)
V2 PL: 4(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+4.00)

[ElCapitan]

No plays for Sunday, 10/23.

[Andy3568]

After extensive backtesting, as hard to swallow as it is, +1 1/2 plays on dogs is the better method overall, unlike baseball.

I believe it. I did not backtest it myself, but I know that the overwhelming majority of games are decided by one point.

[ElCapitan]

10/24 Plays

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Florida Panthers ML (A) +120 (1 to win 1.20) (5Dimes)
V2 Florida Panthers PL (A) -240 (2.4 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[JEFFM22551]

wallco has his own JM System. He goes v1 as teams riding a three game steak to fade and bet v2 on teams that have lost 3 straight. Interesting enough both systems (El Capitan and Wallco) collide tonight. El Capitan has Florida and Wallco has Montreal.

[ElCapitan]

10/24 Results

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Florida Panthers ML (A) +120 (1 to win 1.20) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Florida Panthers PL (A) -240 (2.4 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 4(A)-0(B)-0(C) (+3.33)
V1 PL: 4(A)-0(B)-0(C) (+0.90)

V2 ML: 5(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+5.20)
V2 PL: 5(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+5.00)

[ElCapitan]

10/25 Plays

V1 New Jersey Devils ML (B) +170 (1.18 to win 2) (5Dimes)
V1 New Jersey Devils PL (B) -185 (5.74 to win 3.1) (5Dimes)


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Anaheim Ducks ML (A) +170 (1 to win 1.7) (5Dimes)
V2 Anaheim Ducks PL (A) -185 (1.85 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[ko0l]

Nvm, just realized the record show the amount of games played and no the wins.

[ko0l]

Looking at the record, for the V2 PL results, there was only a +0.34 units in 09/10 and -118.25 units in 10/11.

Does anyone think it will be profitable to bet against the road team punk line when we get to C? If we did that in 10/11 we would have won over 100units and probably just a small profit in 09/10 due to the higher odds.

For eg, if the ducks lose both A and B games, we would bet against them in C at the higher odds either ML or PL.

Anyone wanna do a back test for this?

[ko0l]

Nvm, doesn't work out.

[EasyPicks]

good start so far!

hope it last all the way until the end of the season stress-free

Gl all

[oklahoma]

nice line on the devils, its jumped 20 cents since last night. hopefully it wont matter, gl tonight

[Wallco99]

wallco has his own JM System. He goes v1 as teams riding a three game steak to fade and bet v2 on teams that have lost 3 straight. Interesting enough both systems (El Capitan and Wallco) collide tonight. El Capitan has Florida and Wallco has Montreal.

I wouldn't call it a JM system. JM is based on where teams play, mine is based on team performance. There are well over 200 plays each year, no JM system has ever produced that. There will be many more head-head matches as this season progresses. We will both win some and lose some. As long as both systems end up in the black, is all we can hope for. That sucks how tempting the JM v2 system is getting, but knowing last years results, I still have to shy away from v2 for now. The intersting thing is that even though we may be on both sides of a game, as we were last night, both can win. This happened the other night with Dallas vs L.A. Kings. Both were plays in my system at the same time. We were fading both teams against each other. We had LA Kings (M/L) and Dallas (+1 1/2). Kings won by one, we took both bets.

[thelimit0310]

Good luck tonight fellas, lets rake in this B bet!

[PockyStick]

Record:
V1 ML: 4(A)-0(B)-0(C) (+3.33)
V1 PL: 4(A)-0(B)-0(C) (+0.90)

V2 ML: 4(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+4.00)
V2 PL: 4(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+4.00)

V1 should be 3-0 not 4-0. With Devils going for B game tonight.

[ElCapitan]

V1 should be 3-0 not 4-0. With Devils going for B game tonight.

Correct, Pocky. Thank you. I'll update.

[ElCapitan]

nice line on the devils, its jumped 20 cents since last night. hopefully it wont matter, gl tonight

OKL, the books know these plays too and they know these systems - especially with the recognition of the JM name/system. It's in your best interest to get these lines as soon as they are out.

I seem to recall a thread a while ago about someone actually making money by fading the baseball plays because so many people were on the one side with it being a system play that it was skewing the true value of the game. I think LTProfits or someone was commenting on that.

[Pakaa]

Looks like we cashed!

[1gamer]

Looks like we cashed!

It sure feels good having +1.5 going into the 3rd up 3-zip

[ko0l]

V1 should be 3-0 not 4-0. With Devils going for B game tonight.

Isn't the record the amount of games played?
If it isn't why does the 09/10, 10/11 season records show the A game wins for ML and PL to be equal?
Wouldn't the ML wins be much lower than PL? Also for the B games the wins for PL is much lower than ML

ML: 173(A)-89(B)-39(C) (+45.71)
PL: 173(A)-55(B)-16(C) (+20.09)

I just assumed the amount of games play and not the wins or has this changed?

[oklahoma]

OKL, the books know these plays too and they know these systems - especially with the recognition of the JM name/system. It's in your best interest to get these lines as soon as they are out.

good to know, luckily it didnt matter tonight, woop

[jcygts6]

Nice cash with the devils