ElCapitan's 2011-2012 NHL Thread

[ElCapitan]

Ok, I wanted to get this thread opened up so we can get ready for some hockey action this year. I've run a thread like this for the past two seasons. Here are the past two year records.

2009-2010 Total Record:
ML: 173(A)-89(B)-39(C) (+45.71)
PL: 173(A)-55(B)-16(C) (+20.09)

Version 1:
ML: 80(A)-40(B)-16(C) (+24.59)
PL: 80(A)-24(B)-5(C) (+19.75)

Version 2:
ML: 93(A)-49(B)-23(C) (+21.12)
PL: 93(A)-31(B)-11(C) (+0.34)

2010-2011 Total Record:
ML: 164(A)-84(B)-50(C) (+17.76)
PL: 164(A)-49(B)-18(C) (-71.02)

Version 1:
ML: 66(A)-31(B)-20(C) (+29.04)
PL: 66(A)-17(B)-7(C) (+47.26)

Version 2:
ML: 98(A)-53(B)-30(C) (-11.28)
PL: 98(A)-32(B)-11(C) (-118.28)

As I said in last year's final posts, this year I will still track both V1 and V2 plays but I am only going to be wagering on V1 plays. After last year's ass kicking given to me by V2, I've learned my lesson.

So going over the ground rules of what we're doing here:

Version 1

• 3 game chase
• 3 (or more) game road trip
• At least one opponent of the first three games must be out of conference (OOC)
• Only playing the first three games (if the road trip is 6 games long, we DO NOT split it into two series)

Version 2

• Same as Version 1 except there is no OOC restriction. All 3 game road trips are played.

Once again, due to V2's poor performance last year I am going to be tracking it here but not actually wagering on the games. I look forward to a great year and some great conversation!

[ElCapitan]

Also, since Matchbook is out of the US market, I'm going to be using primarily 5Dimes and BetPhoenix lines to start but I will be line shopping. Those of you with access to Pinnacle or Matchbook will probably be better off there.

[ElCapitan]

Oh, and I almost forgot one final rule. This was ignored last year by me and came back to bite me in the ass.

"You should never bet on a team that is starting their series in one of their first 3 games of the season"

I will be adhering to this now.

[leafs_ducks]

Oh, and I almost forgot one final rule. This was ignored last year by me and came back to bite me in the ass.

"You should never bet on a team that is starting their series in one of their first 3 games of the season"

I will be adhering to this now.

I don't understand what u mean by that

[ElCapitan]

I don't understand what u mean by that

There are several teams that start the season with three game road trips (PIT, TAM, PHX are examples). It is wise to not bet on these series because the oddsmakers may not quite have teams figured out and you may be adding unneeded risk into your first wagers. (See last season's thread and what happened with Anaheim. It was a C loss right off the bat.)

[nitsuj378]

Here is a spreadsheet of all the V1 plays this season. Use it if you'd like. This is the first year following this thread but it looks pretty good from what I've researched. BOL to everyone this year.

[TomJSports]

Okay, so did some searching and I read a bit of your thread from last year. What in the world is this system?

So you take each 3 game (or more) road trip. I am guessing A = first road game, B = second road game, C = third road game. You bet the road team ML and PL for A. If that loses, you increase your bet for B. If that loses, you increase your bet for C.

Is that all there is to it? I feel like I'm missing something.

[ElCapitan]

Okay, so did some searching and I read a bit of your thread from last year. What in the world is this system?

So you take each 3 game (or more) road trip. I am guessing A = first road game, B = second road game, C = third road game. You bet the road team ML and PL for A. If that loses, you increase your bet for B. If that loses, you increase your bet for C.

Is that all there is to it? I feel like I'm missing something.

That's the foundation. It's a standard chase system where you are always betting to win 1 unit. If you lose A then you bet enough on B to win back -A+1.

It was based on the JM system that I got interested in a couple years ago and just thought I would follow for fun.

[ElCapitan]

Here is a spreadsheet of all the V1 plays this season. Use it if you'd like. This is the first year following this thread but it looks pretty good from what I've researched. BOL to everyone this year.

Are you sure you have the right schedule?

Carolina does not play Buffalo on 10/10. They play New Jersey.

Also, on your 2nd, 3rd and 4th plays, you have Calgary, Colorado, and Vancouver listed on 10/10. They all do start a 3 game series on that date but it is only their 2nd game of the year so I will not be playing any of those series. If you do, I wish you good luck.

From my schedule, the first V1 game I will be wagering on is Carolina on 10/14.

The first V2 game that I will start tracking the system on is Buffalo on 10/15.

[ElCapitan]

I don't have time right now to go through the whole thing but just scanning through the first few months of the Excel sheet that was posted, I see a couple errors.

Calgary starts a V1 series on 11/3.
Washington does not start a series on 11/11.
Washington starts a V1 series on 11/15.
Calgary does not start on 12/3.

[nitsuj378]

Are you sure you have the right schedule?

Carolina does not play Buffalo on 10/10. They play New Jersey.

Also, on your 2nd, 3rd and 4th plays, you have Calgary, Colorado, and Vancouver listed on 10/10. They all do start a 3 game series on that date but it is only their 2nd game of the year so I will not be playing any of those series. If you do, I wish you good luck.

From my schedule, the first V1 game I will be wagering on is Carolina on 10/14.

The first V2 game that I will start tracking the system on is Buffalo on 10/15.

Sorry. The Carolina series starts on the 14th not the 10th. I had the date wrong. I made the spreadsheet when the schedules first came out and probably made some mistakes. Thanks for pointing that out. Also the spreadsheet contains ALL series for tracking purposes. I will not be playing a series that starts in a teams first 3 games like you said.

[nitsuj378]

I don't have time right now to go through the whole thing but just scanning through the first few months of the Excel sheet that was posted, I see a couple errors.

Calgary starts a V1 series on 11/3.
Washington does not start a series on 11/11.
Washington starts a V1 series on 11/15.
Calgary does not start on 12/3.

I have the series cerrect and the dates incorrect on both of these teams.

Switch Calgary 12/3 to 11/3.
Switch Washington 11/11 to 11/15.

Thanks for the proofread.

[knugen]

Lovely, really looking forward to follow your thread for the first year..

[ElCapitan]

Welcome aboard and here's to hoping we can make some money this year.

[carlitosgarcia]

hey ElCaptain.. how do you chase this? do you double up for every bet.. ex.. first game you bet $20, than $40, etc? or how do you labby this system?

[carlitosgarcia]

and how much is your bankroll.. and how much is your unit?

[ElCapitan]

hey ElCaptain.. how do you chase this? do you double up for every bet.. ex.. first game you bet $20, than $40, etc? or how do you labby this system?

You are always aiming to win 1 unit per series so how much you have to lay out depends on the odds for the team we are betting on.

[thelimit0310]

ElCapitan is back! Looking forward to following and best of luck!

[bauerranch]

I hope to follow better this coming year- thanks

[analyzer]

Looking forward to it!

[cubfan2121]

Anyone planning on using a labby line with this system/
I have the general idea on how to do it but i get confused when there are multiple games
Not sure which game to move to the end or which game to move down etc

Any suggestions on how long each line should be or does that make a differnce?
It seems there around 70+ series available for this season

[thelimit0310]

Yes I will be labbying this system with 2 lines, 4 numbers per line

[knugen]

I will labby it With 1 line/game , just start a new line if there is à new serie,..

[LuckyBeans]

Seems promising. Looking forward to the season.

[edh1011]

there seemed to be a lot of C losses last year on ML, where the PL would have won. But the PL odds are too high for comfort. Anyone ever think about having 2 team parlays on the PL to balance out the odds? This would also lower the risk when there are several series going at once.

[cubfan2121]

What would be the other half of the parlay?

What if you played used the PL as the C bet for your ML chase?

Im actuly going to try using a labby with system
if the c bet loses, Im going to average the losses over the next line

there seemed to be a lot of C losses last year on ML, where the PL would have won. But the PL odds are too high for comfort. Anyone ever think about having 2 team parlays on the PL to balance out the odds? This would also lower the risk when there are several series going at once.

[edh1011]

What would be the other half of the parlay?

What if you played used the PL as the C bet for your ML chase?

Im actuly going to try using a labby with system
if the c bet loses, Im going to average the losses over the next line

yeah there would have to be 2 plays in order to parlay the PL. last season there were at least 2 plays on most days. if not, then the ML would be the best bet.

you could also just play PL on the A bet since you're not chasing yet. then if the PL wins and ML lost, you could just do a 2 game chase on the ML.

we should track all of these first before we actually bet them though. not sure how el capitan would feel about that.

[stickbit]

think its better to labby and SKIP all C games. just my opinion.

[carlitosgarcia]

if the odds are positive +150.. do you risk a unit or do you play to win a unit?

[ElCapitan]

if the odds are positive +150.. do you risk a unit or do you play to win a unit?

Generally, this will only happen with the ML bets because you will almost never find a +1.5 at plus odds. The way I do it is for the A bet I bet one unit, so in your example I would bet 1 to win 1.5. If that loses, I am -1. For the B bet, say the odds are +125. I would now bet 1.6 to win 2, for a profit of 1 unit. If that loses, I am -2.6 (1+1.6) so I would try to win 3.6 on the C bet.

This is why the ML bets can sustain more C losses and still show a profit because you are generally betting at +100 or greater.

[thelimit0310]

think its better to labby and SKIP all C games. just my opinion.

If your labbying then where is the benefit of skipping C? I will be labbying too so I would like to hear your reasoning.

Thanks!

[J.M. Disciple]

If your labbying then where is the benefit of skipping C? I will be labbying too so I would like to hear your reasoning.

Thanks!

no point in skipping any bets with the labby

[cubfan2121]

So what would a labby line look like after a C loss?
A- 1 unit (using $20 units for example - $10 - $10 - $10 - $10)
B - ($10 - $10 - $10 - $10 - $20)
C- $10 - $10 - $10 - $10 - $20 - $30 <--- assuming a loss of $90 ( -$20 -$30 - $40 = -$90)

now what?
Do we continue line?
A - $10 - $10 - $10 - $10 - $20 - $30 - $40

or do we divide losses
$22.5 - $22.5 - $22.5 -$22.5

Is anyone willing to post labby line while el capitan post his chase plays?

[stickbit]

labby works much better with a shorter chase...not worth it to chase to a c bet

[hagball52]

Just checking in.