ElCapitan's 2011-2012 NHL Thread

[jcygts6]

Thanks captain! Let's go pens!

[oklahoma]

, think ill make a pledge to myself and try not to watch any more C bets.

[lennytia]

Betting the ML.
Great job El C

[ElCapitan]

11/5 Results

V1 Pittsburgh Penguins (C) ML +110 (3.66 to win 4.03) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 8(A)-3(B)-1(C) (+10.48)
V1 PL: 8(A)-2(B)-0(C) (+8.00)

V2 ML: 10(A)-4(B)-1(C) (+10.88)
V2 PL: 10(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+10.00)

[ElCapitan]

11/6 Plays

Early game today! Hope everyone is awake!

V1 Dallas Stars (A) ML +110 (1 to win 1.1) (5Dimes)
V1 Dallas Stars (A) PL -270 (2.7 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[doublej95]

Dallas Stars

[ElCapitan]

Early game today! Hope everyone is awake!

V1 Dallas Stars (A) ML +110 (1 to win 1.1) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V1 Dallas Stars (A) PL -270 (2.7 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 9(A)-3(B)-1(C) (+11.58)
V1 PL: 9(A)-2(B)-0(C) (+9.00)

V2 ML: 10(A)-4(B)-1(C) (+10.88)
V2 PL: 10(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+10.00)

[ElCapitan]

11/7 Plays

V1 New York Islanders (A) ML +170 (1 to win 1.7) (5Dimes)
V1 New York Islanders (A) PL -185 (1.9 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[jcygts6]

Thanks for the post. This year is off to a fast start

[smcc716]

V1 New York Islanders (A) ML +170 (1 to win 1.7) (5Dimes)
V1 New York Islanders (A) PL -185 (1.9 to win 1) (5Dimes)

Thanks for posting so early Cap!! Much easier for me to get the plays the day before living up in Alaska!!!

[Spartacuss]

Thanks for posting so early Cap!! Much easier for me to get the plays the day before living up in Alaska!!!

Same with me in Australia.

[PockyStick]

glad i put in the dallas play last night.. game was over when i woke up!

[ElCapitan]

Fine with me.

[latvian]

hey Captain, you truly believe that Islanders have a chance with Boston? I think Boston after a 7:0 win against Toronto may be on a winning streak +they are playing at home..
Of course i'm an amateur, but would like to hear your thoughts

[SBRMAN23]

TIM thomass isn't starting I like it

[ElCapitan]

I think they have about a 37% chance of winning which, if a remember correctly, is exactly what a +170 would equate to.

[knugen]

TIM thomass isn't starting I like it

where have u seen that tim thiomas isnt starting, i dinnt see anything about that on espn.com

[knugen]

Injury Report: Isles goalie Evgeni Nabokov is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.

thats the only thing i can found

[TomJSports]

where have u seen that tim thiomas isnt starting, i dinnt see anything about that on espn.com

http://twitter.com/#!/HackswithHaggs/status/133581652352974848

And Tuukka Rask is a great goalie. I would argue he's the better goalie, Tim Thomas sold his soul to the devil for last year. I just really don't like unorthodox keepers, but Tim gets results.

However, Nabakov is playing tonight, and I like him to do what he can to steal a game, as he will want a payday next year.

Isles probably don't win this. ~37% is about right. Think Boston left some goals back against Toronto, though. System is mainly about the chase, which has a great record. Even if Isles get similar odds in the next two, they are .63 *.63 * .63 = ~.25, so a 75% of hitting over three games.

[TomJSports]

where have u seen that tim thiomas isnt starting, i dinnt see anything about that on espn.com

Injury Report: Isles goalie Evgeni Nabokov is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.

thats the only thing i can found

Left Wing is a fantastic site for betting and fantasy, book mark it http://www.leftwinglock.com/starting-goalies/

[Kev the Brit]

Guys,
I know we don't take team performances into consideration with JM's system. However, the Islanders are currently the 2nd worst road team in the League. 2 years ago, on another SBRforum discussion, we discussed filtering out or fading the worst 2 road teams after a series failure cost the system 30+ units. JM filters out the worst road team and I think that it is worth extending the filter to the 2nd worst team as well.

I'm not playing NYI (2 units lost on this series) until they improve their road standing.

[Win89]

Guys,
I know we don't take team performances into consideration with JM's system. However, the Islanders are currently the 2nd worst road team in the League. 2 years ago, on another SBRforum discussion, we discussed filtering out or fading the worst 2 road teams after a series failure cost the system 30+ units. JM filters out the worst road team and I think that it is worth extending the filter to the 2nd worst team as well.

I'm not playing NYI (2 units lost on this series) until they improve their road standing.

Good point on that. What's your take on how we deal with NYI. I guess our options are either continue on, fade, or leave it at the [A].

[Win89]

Guys,
I know we don't take team performances into consideration with JM's system. However, the Islanders are currently the 2nd worst road team in the League. 2 years ago, on another SBRforum discussion, we discussed filtering out or fading the worst 2 road teams after a series failure cost the system 30+ units. JM filters out the worst road team and I think that it is worth extending the filter to the 2nd worst team as well.

I'm not playing NYI (2 units lost on this series) until they improve their road standing.

Good point on that. What's your take on how we deal with NYI. I guess our options are either continue on, fade, or leave it at the [A].

[Kev the Brit]

Good point on that. What's your take on how we deal with NYI. I guess our options are either continue on, fade, or leave it at the [A].

I'm thinking about fading on the B bet, which will probably be a ML bet at short odds.

[ElCapitan]

11/7 Results

V1 New York Islanders (A) ML +170 (1 to win 1.7) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 New York Islanders (A) PL -185 (1.9 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 10(A)-3(B)-1(C) (+10.58)
V1 PL: 10(A)-2(B)-0(C) (+7.10)

V2 ML: 10(A)-4(B)-1(C) (+10.88)
V2 PL: 10(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+10.00)

[ElCapitan]

11/8 Plays

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Minnesota Wild (A) ML +125 (1 to win 1.25) (5Dimes)
V2 Minnesota Wild (A) PL -235 (2.35 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[Thirsty P]

Guys, I laid off the Islanders last night based upon your comments. I appreciate all the insight as I know absolutely zilch about hockey. Great call fellows. I would appreciate any and all comments on any plays as we continue to move forward with the season. Gracias!

[ktan23]

Hey ElCapitan, I was wondering if you tracked this system but without the OOC filter.. If so, couldn't we play Dallas and Edmonton this week as well?

[ElCapitan]

Hey ElCapitan, I was wondering if you tracked this system but without the OOC filter.. If so, couldn't we play Dallas and Edmonton this week as well?

That's what V2 is - no OOC filter.

Edmonton is in the middle of a 6 game road trip that started on 11/3 where we bet them and won. You don't split up long road trips into two or more series.

Dallas started a 4 game trip on Sunday where we played them and also won.

[WilliamWallace]

First time in your thread el captain. If you post a V1 play tonight, do I tail it, can I jump on anytime or should I wait for the start of a road trip or something

[ElCapitan]

If you're going to start tailing, wait for the next V1 (A) plays and go from there. We will have one on Friday and Saturday.

[WilliamWallace]

Sounds like a plan

[ktan23]

sorry I'm new to this but would u do the PL or ML if we were to play Minnesota tonight? I know it's just for tracking V2 but which would you play? both or just one

[oklahoma]

sorry I'm new to this but would u do the PL or ML if we were to play Minnesota tonight? I know it's just for tracking V2 but which would you play? both or just one

play both, gl.

[ElCapitan]

^^^ - What he said.