ElCapitan's 2011-2012 NHL Thread

[Trivial]

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Chicago Blackhawks (A) ML +115 (1 to win 1.15) (5Dimes)
V2 Chicago Blackhawks(A) PL -255 (2.55 to win 1) (5Dimes)

Are V2 plays meant to be wagered on?

[Valand]

No he's only following them last year the lost big see first page

[Trivial]

Thanks a bunch.

[EasyPicks]

any (C ) loss this year? V1 and V2?

[alexknyc]

any (C ) loss this year? V1 and V2?

I don't think so but it's very hard to tell from the way the record is kept.

[doublej95]

any (C ) loss this year? V1 and V2?

I think the Isles lost on the V1 ml. That is the only one.

[Win89]

Anybody know what was the official record wins/losses for V2 PL last year?

[ElCapitan]

Are V2 plays meant to be wagered on?

It depends on the size of your bankroll and balls.

I think the Isles lost on the V1 ml. That is the only one

Correct. In my next post I'll add a Series Record stat so people can see if there are any SERIES losses.

[EasyPicks]

thx Elcapitan

[Trivial]

It depends on the size of your bankroll and balls.



Correct. In my next post I'll add a Series Record stat so people can see if there are any SERIES losses.

Lol. Thx.

[UK_gixxer]

captain- just wondering, any thoughts on why V2 is performing so well thus far and didnt perform well last season? Did maybe V2 start out this well last year and then all of a sudden started losing, or did it just lose out of the gate? I tried looking at your last season spreadsheet but it was a little hard for me to decipher...just trying to decide if I should make V2 bets this season because it looks to be doing well, but if it did this last year as well I will probably stay away.

Thanks for all your work!

[edh1011]

I think for V2 it's a matter of filtering out the poor teams. Last year MOST of the C losses came with teams like Colorado, NY Islanders, Columbus, Dallas...all the teams with poor road records. Some of the good teams lost too on the ML, but not nearly as many. Over the past two seasons, February is the time to really start red flagging the poor teams who are not in contention

[doublej95]

I have played a couple of the V2 plays on the ml. If it's a good team I look to see what three teams are going to be a determine if there is a good chance for a win.

[UK_gixxer]

I have played a couple of the V2 plays on the ml. If it's a good team I look to see what three teams are going to be a determine if there is a good chance for a win.

so how do you feel about chicago's chances of winning this one? they look like they are pretty terrible on the road, right?

[doublej95]

so how do you feel about chicago's chances of winning this one? they look like they are pretty terrible on the road, right?

I think their best shot on the ml is against Calgary and I think they should have no problem covering the puckline in the next three.

[jcygts6]

Looks like chicago comes through

[UK_gixxer]

I think their best shot on the ml is against Calgary and I think they should have no problem covering the puckline in the next three.

thanks for the advice- it helped me make the right call tonight- although I wish I had put a lot more down now! haha

[ElCapitan]

11/17 Results

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Chicago Blackhawks (A) ML +115 (1 to win 1.15) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Chicago Blackhawks(A) PL -255 (2.55 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 13(A)-5(B)-2(C) (+8.01) SERIES: 11-1
V1 PL: 13(A)-4(B)-0(C) (+10.82) SERIES: 12-0

V2 ML: 16(A)-5(B)-1(C) (+15.93) SERIES: 15-0
V2 PL: 16(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+13.90) SERIES: 15-0

[Win89]

I have played a couple of the V2 plays on the ml. If it's a good team I look to see what three teams are going to be a determine if there is a good chance for a win.

I agree, keeping an eye on the bad teams and looking at the performance of the three opponents should keep things honest.

[ElCapitan]

11/17 Plays

V1 Washington Capitals (B) ML -165 (3.60 to win 2.18) (5Dimes)
V1 Washington Capitals (B) PL (fav, play ML) (3.60 to win 2.18) (5Dimes)

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Detroit Red Wings (B) ML +125 (1.68 to win 2.1) (5Dimes)
V2 Detroit Red Wings (B) PL -230 (4.83 to win 2.1) (5Dimes)

[EasyPicks]

Record:
V1 ML: 13(A)-5(B)-2(C) (+8.01) SERIES: 12-0
V1 PL: 13(A)-4(B)-0(C) (+10.82) SERIES: 12-0

V2 ML: 16(A)-5(B)-1(C) (+15.93) SERIES: 15-0
V2 PL: 16(A)-2(B)-1(C) (+13.90) SERIES: 15-0

u said that 1 loss occurred with the NIY....?

[ElCapitan]

u said that 1 loss occurred with the NIY....?

Whoops! You're correct. One loss on the ML series.

Thanks for catching this.

[UK_gixxer]

just curious, what is everyone's unit = in terms of $$$ ? I've been trying to adjust mine a little to take advantage of the historical success of the V1 system. I know everyone's unit should reflect their bankroll and obey proper money management, but I'm not going to lose my house or car over this, just entertain me on this

[Thirsty P]

just curious, what is everyone's unit = in terms of $$$ ? I've been trying to adjust mine a little to take advantage of the historical success of the V1 system. I know everyone's unit should reflect their bankroll and obey proper money management, but I'm not going to lose my house or car over this, just entertain me on this

I play it like this:

A bet = 2.5% of my bankroll
B bet = 5% of my bankroll
C bet = 10% of my bankroll

[EasyPicks]

€40 for me

[ElCapitan]

I'll entertain.

When I first started this for the 09-10 season, I started with $1000 bankroll and was playing $10 units just to see how things worked out. I played both the ML and PL series. I ended up +66 units ($660) for the whole season with everything totaled together. It was a bit wild at times and I still remember losing the 32u bet on Columbus two days before Christmas. It's not a good feeling to watch $320 disappear in one night on one stupid game.

Then in 10-11 I started with the $1660 but like an overconfident idiot I went to $25 units. Of course we all know how that turned out and I lost 53u ($1325) between the V1 and V2 plays.

This season I reloaded and started with a $2000 bank and I have been playing $50 units but on V1 only. As of right now, I'm up ~19u with one series open, so I ain't complaining.

[Andy3568]

just curious, what is everyone's unit = in terms of $$$ ? I've been trying to adjust mine a little to take advantage of the historical success of the V1 system. I know everyone's unit should reflect their bankroll and obey proper money management, but I'm not going to lose my house or car over this, just entertain me on this

I don't know what everyone else's opinion is, but I think you're making a mistake if you adjust your units mid season. The reason is... systems tend to correct to the average performance over the course of the season. This isn't guaranteed, but it does happen. So if you've been winning more than usual, if you adjust your unit amount up, then when the system starts to correct, in other words, starts to lose, you're now losing at a higher rate. It works the other way, too. If you've been losing, and you adjust your unit amount down, when the system corrects, in other words, starts to win, you will be winning at a lower rate.

IMO, pick a unit amount at the start of the season and stick with it. The amount it totally up to you, but I personally don't like to adjust my unit amount mid season.

[Andy3568]

Wow... The first "C" play (JM) of the season coming up on 11/19 (Capitals @ Maple Leafs).

[oklahoma]

IMO, pick a unit amount at the start of the season and stick with it. The amount it totally up to you, but I personally don't like to adjust my unit amount mid season.

, ive been burned a few times changing units mid-season in the past. though i luckily never finished in the red after doing so I definitely finished with less than i could have.

[jcygts6]

Washington didnt show up tonight. So dissapointed in them

[TomJSports]

Wow... The first "C" play (JM) of the season coming up on 11/19 (Capitals @ Maple Leafs).

Isles had a C play and lost. Unless you didn't play due to road record. Up 3-0 on Phoenix in that B game, too!

Washington didnt show up tonight. So dissapointed in them

Don't understand. Tough break on that. Had the o5.5, too. Washington in Toronto could be tough.

[ElCapitan]

11/17 Results

V1 Washington Capitals (B) ML -165 (3.60 to win 2.18) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Washington Capitals (B) PL (fav, play ML) (3.60 to win 2.18) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Detroit Red Wings (B) ML +125 (1.68 to win 2.1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Detroit Red Wings (B) PL -230 (4.83 to win 2.1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 13(A)-6(B)-2(C) (+4.41) SERIES: 11-1
V1 PL: 13(A)-5(B)-0(C) (+7.22) SERIES: 12-0

V2 ML: 16(A)-6(B)-1(C) (+14.25) SERIES: 15-0
V2 PL: 16(A)-3(B)-1(C) (+9.27) SERIES: 15-0

[ElCapitan]

No plays for Friday, 11/18.

[roile]

Now things are heating up, unfortunately. Two C bets ...(and an A) I'll be sitting in front of my computer all night to check the games live

[Win89]

Hey guys how does everybody feel about these two C bets?