Yeah I've gone there before...I like that site...I was being super lazy...I have noticed how much of a difference there is in the info between the two. I am contemplating putting a small wager down on Thursday. Tell me not to.
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wal66,
agree with everything you said...
cougar bait,
I don't know what to tell you man, you are a smart guy and will figure out a plan...Comment -
Pags,
I'm very high on your Fresno St pick, bol to you this weekComment -
Martin no one's forcing you to come in and read his thread
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Why don't you guys put up 40 SBR points vs. each other in the Purdue/Notre Dame game and let that settle it?Comment -
i have to agree with cb.Comment -
So all "Pags plays" are for 2 units each this week? Just want to make sure I am keeping an accurate record. BOL!Comment -
Pags, i know you don't bet week night games, but what do you think about ole miss vs USC. just thought id get your opinion before I bet anything on it? Thanks man, and appreciate you posting your plays every weekComment -
Pags..im new in here and stumbled across your thread and your picks..i have been following you for the year so far and even though your record so far might not be what you would like it to be, no one can question the work you put in capping games..your right-ups are insightful and what people need to understand is that they are your opinion based on your knowledge and information you have researched..these are plays that you like..no one is forcing them to lay money on them..i live in vegas and have been out here for about 20 yrs and have followed many of the so-called professional cappers and everyone of them tells me that no matter what you do, it is still gambling!! your gonna win some and lose some but the best you can hope for is to come out ahead when it is all said and done..keep doing what you do..a big week is coming!! best of luck to you this weekend..Comment -
notre dame is going to miss michael floyd a whole lot more then people think
now the defense can just double tate
should be an interesting gameComment -
Hang it there pag, haters are always there. Good luck in week 4.Comment -
thanks oda...you are right, there will always be guys like that, but they motivate me too...Comment -
pags11..I just discovered this thread. I cant believe how much insight you have to college football. Good website you just mentioned for public leans. I book marked it and this thread. I am on board and best of luck to you.
MartinBlanks write up was worth a read too..I think you took it the wrong way..Each poster has different opinions on each game..his is a good one too
Anyway dont want to write too much..thks for the thread..lets make some bread..starting..NOW!!!
and dont mind my sense of humor in my next post
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pags11..Purdue
MartinBlank..Notre Dame
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good stuff straightshooter...
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Purdue seems like the play.Originally posted by romanowski
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twentyonekid,
todaysaction,
I thinking they are as well...
icemantbi,
thanks for all that you wrote man...glad to hear you got yourself a car...I am glad you brought that up about my thread, because I have talked to SBR management many times before about having my thread policed more routinely or putting it in a special area...despite my thread regularly drawing 20,000 plus views each week they seem to think it's not necessary to put my thread into a special category...I respect their decision but it does make for a lot of unecessary B.S., and then I get pissed...at any rate, thank you again for the kind words...Comment -
Guys, pags is working his ass off on handicapping these games and has run across some bad luck.When things are not going your way you sure don't want to here any crap from anybody. It takes alot of guts to post games week after week. Remember he's got money on these games too. GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK PAGS!!Comment -
Flaghunter,
...thank you...
CLASSIC ROCK,
good stuff, appreciate it...Comment -
Pags,
I don't look at your plays very often....do you generally pick road dogs? Of your 9 plays this week, 8 are on the road (7 of them dogs).Comment -
check again adistar...2 home teams...Comment -
if you want the actual breakdown it's six road dogs, one road favorite, one home dog and one home favorite...
typically most of my plays are road dogs, followed by home dogs, followed by home favorites...very rarely do I play a road favorite...Comment -
going to be a little less extensive with my write-ups this week, try to break it down as simple as possible...I think analysis may have lead to paralysis on my part...hopefully you guys still enjoy them, I'll have them up in a little bit...Comment -
Fresno State +14.5
I respect how well Cincinnati is playing, heck I had them last week. This is just a lot of points to give a motivated team with comparable talent level. Cincy’s QB Pike is throwing the heck out of the ball, as good as any QB in the country. The strength of Fresno State defense is their defensive line’s pass rush and their secondary. Cincy will probably look to run the ball more than they have the first three games due to Fresno’s less than stellar run defense, but this could work to Fresno’s advantage as it will slow the game down and make Cincy earn their points with long drives. Fresno will have to stay with Gilyard as he is Cincy’s main playmaker. Pead and Ramsey are two solid tailbacks for Cincy, but they aren’t game breakers. Lastly Fresno will have to watch WR’s Woods and Binns who are good possession guys.
Fresno State can put up points, as they did against Wisconsin two weeks ago and against a very good Boise State defense last week. RB Ryan Matthews is a big-time talent and he has the ability to break big runs, as he did last week three times. QB Colburn runs the offense efficiently and is fairly mobile. He will need to cut down on his interceptions if Fresno wants to keep this game close. Fortunately he has a lot of weapons on offense to work with, headed by Matthews who’s averaging 9.1 yards per carry, and he has two capable counterparts in Robbie Rouse and Lonyae Miller, both who average over five yards per carry. WR’s Devon Wiley, Seyi Ajirotutu and Marlon Moore are all talented players who can stretch the Cincy secondary and help open up the Fresno running game. Despite having a stout run defense, Fresno’s offensive balance should open up the running game and again help shorten the game.
Brian Kelly is a heck of a coach and has his team playing well. That being said this is exactly the type of game Fresno State gets up for playing on the road vs. a BCS conference opponent. Fresno has already showed they can play early in the morning, they should be ready to go at 9 AM PST and give Cincy a heck of a battle.Comment -
im taking fresno at +16.5/17 and really like this pick, thanks for the writeup pagsComment -
North Carolina +3
North Carolina +2.5
This game is about two teams heading in opposite directions. Both North Carolina and Georgia Tech were picked to be two of the better teams in the ACC at the beginning of the year, but UNC looks like the better team heading into this game. I have been extremely impressed with North Carolina’s defense the first three weeks of the season, particularly with their front seven. DL Marvin Austin is a beast and he has a couple of his fellow teammates on the line that should be joining him as future pros. UNC Head Coach Butch Davis has done a great job with the UNC offense, which I thought was a question mark for the team heading into the season. QB T.J. Yates has recovered from injury and is managing the UNC offense well. RB’s Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston have improved their yards per carry this season, which is also a sign of North Carolina’s offensive line playing a lot better this year. Freshman wide receiver Erik Highsmith has been particularly impressive, reminding me of Hakeem Nicks some. Greg Little is a solid position receiver and has made a smooth transition from RB last year.
Things just don’t seem right with Georgia Tech right now. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Paul Johnson but as I watched him get interviewed at halftime of last week’s game he just didn’t appear to have an answer as to why his team isn’t playing well right now. Their problems offensive start with that I think QB Josh Nesbitt doesn’t seem healthy right now, nor does RB Johnathon Dwyer. Even if they both are healthier this week, this offense still seems out of sync. Another factor that many opposing defenses know is that anytime Nesbitt drops back to pass most of the time the ball is going WR Damaryius Thomas. RB Roddy Jones, who had a great year last year, is still regaining his timing after being injured earlier in the year. The one player who really has performed well or Georgia Tech so far this season, is Louisville transfer Anthony Allen. Defensively, I’ve seen Georgia Tech’s defense play six bad quarters of football in a row. They aren’t getting much of a pass rush, they aren’t doing a good job against the run and they are giving up a lot of big plays.
Playing in Atlanta will be tough, but Davis’s troops should be up for the challenge.Comment -
Pags, I have tailed you for the past two seasons and almost feel like I owe you something. You have made me money and I have learned so much just by riding your coat tails, and I have done nothing but just give you kudos and say thanks. Thanks again and still with you for the third season.
Don't concern yourself with the children on here. Most of us know that what matters is how much is won by January, not what happens in a couple weeks in September.Comment -
Miami FL -2
I really do believe Miami is the real deal. They will be going into a tough place to play this week in Blacksburg, but unlike Nebraska last week they have the offensive balance to come out on top on Saturday. QB Jacory Harris has “it”, by it I mean the type of moxie I used to see Joe Montana used to play with. He is cool under pressure, reads defenses well, and throws a very nice ball. He has some of the better playmaking pass catchers in the ACC to throw the ball to. Travis Benjamin is averaging over 20 yards per catch and can make plays in the return game. Leonard Hankerson, Dedrick Epps, LaRon Byrd and Aldarius Johnson are all threat to make plays which makes it tough for opposing secondaries to match up with this group. The key to this game will be Miami’s running game, as they are giving up over 200 yards a game on the ground. I have been impressed with offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s play calling and he should dial up a good game plan this weekend.
Miami’s defense should be able to contain Virginia Tech’s running game, especially because their top running back Ryan Williams has been nursing a sore ankle. Williams is the focal point of the Virginia Tech offensive attack, but I expect him to share carries with fellow freshman David Wilson, who is the more inexperienced of the two backs. QB Tyrod Taylor continues to struggle in completing passes down field and as long as the Miami pass rushers stay in their lanes they should be able to shut down the Virginia Tech passing attack. It hasn’t helped Taylor that some of his younger receivers haven’t developed over the first month of the season and TE Greg Boone has just now gotten healthy. Before last week’s big pass play Virginia Tech had 180 yards in total offense and against Alabama they had 190. This is an offensively challenged football team.
It will be a tough battle on the road for a Miami but they are worthy of a play at 2.5 or less here.Comment -
Arkansas State -1
Arkansas State is not your average Sun Belt football team. They are a team full of seniors on both sides of the ball and had a week off to prepare for conference foe Troy. Arkansas State senior RB Reggie Arnold, who is averaging 8.0 yards per carry and has 5 rushing TDs thus far, has a chance to be one of the few running backs in college football history to record four straight 1000 yard rushing seasons. RB’s Derek Lawson and Don Jones both are capable back-ups and should be able to keep the chains moving if Arnold needs a break. Senior QB Corey Leonard, who like Arnold, has the experience of playing in a bowl game and is also a four year starter, should be able to make plays through the air as the Troy defense creeps up to stop the run. He has a couple senior WR’s to throw the ball to, in Jahbari McLennan and Brandon Thompkins, as well as solid senior TE Trevor Gillott. Notice a trend here? These seniors have taken a back seat to Troy the past couple of years and with many of Troy’s players gone from the past couple of years this is their chance to make a statement throughout the conference.
Arkansas State’s defense is quietly pretty solid, holding Nebraska’s rushing offense to 136 yards. Troy will use their spread to pass first and run second. If they can’t get their running game going on Saturday, as they have yet to do other than against a porous UAB defense last week, it could end up being a long day for their offense. Troy’s tailback DuJuan Harris is averaging a whopping 2.6 yards per carry, which tells me Troy’s offensive line is having some issues. Troy QB Levi Brown has recovered from an ACL tear last year and has performed well. His problem has is having to throw to freshman, JC transfers and seniors who haven’t played a whole lot up until this point. Arky State will have to keep their eye on junior WR Tebiarus Gill, who is by far Brown’s favorite target.
I like the spot here for Arkansas State and think they are the better team, getting conference rival at home this week.Comment -
Central Florida +10
George O’Leary is one helluva a football coach and as everyone has forgotten about his football team the past year they have quietly become an ATS machine. Many of you have commented on the fact that I like to play a lot of dogs. Well I usually start to heat up when inter-conference play begins because teams like UCF and East Carolina, particularly their coaches, know each other so well. O’Leary made the right call when he inserted senior Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges as the starting quarterback, after his solid performance against Southern Miss in week two. Hodges performed flawlessly last week, completing 15-20 passes and running the ball at over five yards per carry. RB Brynn Harvey isn’t going to make you forget about Kevin Smith, but the kid is a workhorse and has a nose for the end zone. Upperclassmen WR’s Rocky Ross, Kamar Aiken and Jamar Newsome have all worked well with Hodges, finding ways to get open, which has slowly opened up the UCF ground attack. ECU’s front seven is fairly solid, but I do see some weaknesses in their secondary.
ECU is struggling on offense. Their top tailback Dominique Lindsay is again hurt, after he received a medical redshirt last year when he injured his knee. Senior QB Patrick Pickney appears to have lost some confidence and isn’t throwing the ball well, which is affecting the ECU offense. The biggest stat that stands out to me is that Pickney is averaging less than five yards per pass attempt, which essentially means he is checking down most of the time. Veteran WR Jamar Bryant has appeared to be a tad gimpy the past two weeks and I’ve read that he’s been battling some injuries, combined with the fact that Pickney is struggling to get him the football regularly makes things easier this week for UCF. UCF’s front four are very active and they should be able to contain the ECU running game and also give Pickney little time to throw, which is good because they have a very young secondary.
O’Leary vs. Holtz should be an excellent chess match and these two teams are closer in talent level than most think.Comment -
Army +10
I believe in what head coach Rich Ellerson is doing with this Army program. For those of you that don’t know who he is, he is the same coach who took his Cal Poly team into Wisconsin late last season and almost beat Wisconsin. He compiled a 56-34 record at a school most noted for its engineering program, which should tell you a little about his ability to coach football. He has taken Army to a new level, which starts with the attitude he has instilled in his team. I’ve gotten to watch them play twice now and they are undersized on both sides of the ball but they are disciplined and are faster than any Army team I can remember watching in recent memory. Ellerson, who coached under Dick Tomey at Hawaii, has the Army run defense playing especially well this season. This matches up well with an Iowa State team whose strength so far this season seems to be in running the football. ISU has a big offensive line and Alexander Robinson is a big tailback, but I think Army’s active front seven should be able to contain the ISU running game and force ISU QB Austen Arnaud to beat them with the pass. While I do see some issues with Army’s secondary, I haven’t seen Arnaud throw the ball yet this season and WR Marquis Hamilton has been the only WR to really step up in the passing game.
Army will have to clean up all of the fumbles they had last week and the interceptions they threw the week before. They are a solid offensive football team and although they run the triple option and are primarily a running team, they do have 6’10” wide receiver Ali Villanueva who is averaging 19 yards a catch so far this season and has 2 TD catches. ISU’s secondary will have to account for him which will mean one less guy in the box defending the option. Army RB Patrick Mealy is averaging over ten yards per carry, Kingsley Ehie five yards a carry and Jameson Carter 4.3 yards per carry. All three of these backs are threats to run the football. Army is led by true freshman QB Trent Steelman who was actually fairly highly touted out of high school. If he can make better decisions with the football Army has a legitimate chance to win this football game.
The clock should tick down a lot with long drives predicated by both team’s running games. Army’s strength vs. the run along with Iowa State not fairing well as a double digit favorite spark my interest to make a play on Army.Comment -
TCU +3
TCU has had this game circled since the schedule came out and this is their chance to prove that they are a true BCS buster. They are fortunate enough to catch a Clemson team this week who has been battling the flu and whose star player, C.J. Spiller, is nursing a foot injury. The one thing you can always bank on with Gary Patterson and his TCU squads is that they will neutralize the opposing team’s running game. As improved as the Clemson offensive line is and as talented as Spiller is, it’s going to be extremely hard for Clemson to run the football this week. TCU’s secondary is a bit of a concern, but I have watched Clemson freshman QB Willie Parker struggle with his reads and I’m not certain he will be able to have enough time to make a read on where to throw the football with TCU’s front four getting after him on a regular basis. TCU must be aware of WR Jacoby Ford who is Clemson’s big play passing threat.
TCU’s offense isn’t pretty but it’s effective. Their play calling is fairly conservative but that will serve us well this week as this game will be about minimizing mistakes on offense. Clemson’s front four is solid, but the TCU offensive line should be able to create some holes for Joseph Turner and company. Dalton’s mobility will play a key role in opening up their offense as the Clemson defense will have to account for him at all times. Dalton has two very explosive receivers to throw the ball to in Jimmy Young, who’s averaging over twenty-five yards per catch, and Jeremy Kerley, who runs the Wild Frog offensive set.
Both teams’ kickers are solid, as are both team’s running games. Coaching edge, motivational edge and situational edge side with TCU and they are worthy of a play here.Comment -
Pags,
Thanks for all this hard work. I am feeling a good week ahead.Comment -
Iowa +10
I have had the opportunity to watch both Iowa and Penn State play three times so far this season and despite the revenge angle and the home field for Penn State I don’t see ten points worth of difference between these two football teams. Todd McShay talked a little bit yesterday on ESPN about Penn State’s offensive line issues so far this season. While PSU did rush the ball well against Temple last week, they still had problems with their pass protection schemes as they had to replace three all-conference linemen from last year as well as three senior receivers. QB Darryl Clark is playing well, but he doesn’t have as much time to throw the football as he did last year and most of his throws so far this season have been short to intermediate routes. RB Evan Royster is an explosive tailback but his back-up Stephan Green has struggled thus far, which again I think has something to do with PSU’s offensive line. WR’s Derek Moye, Graham Zug and Chaz Powell are all going to be really good someday, but right now they are still inexperienced in big games (they won’t be facing Akron, Syracuse or Temple this week) and will be facing a fierce Iowa secondary. While Iowa did lose two defensive linemen to the NFL last year, their pass rush has been comparable to last years and their run defense has only declined slightly.
Iowa’s offense has surprised me this year as I thought after losing Shon Greene to the NFL draft and Jewell Hampton to injury that they wouldn’t have much of a running game. Enter freshmen tailbacks Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher, who have both done an outstanding job thus far against some pretty good defenses. Robinson tweaked his ankle at the end of last week’s game but all reports I read listed him as the starting running back this week. Iowa’s left tackle is questionable for this game as is their TE Tony Moeaki, but WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos will play this week. QB Ricky Stanzi has performed very well this season, particularly on third down, which is something I noticed with him towards the end of last season. His mobility and toughness make him a tough quarterback for opposing defenses to game plan for. WR’s Trey Stross and Marvin McNutt have stepped in nicely and made some big plays for Iowa’s offense.
Kirk Ferentz will have his team prepared to face Joe Pa’s squad in Happy Valley, at night, in a white out. This should be a great game.Comment -
great write ups as usual pags with ya till the end never lost money following you for a ENTIRE CFB season so to all the ne sayers F*ck OFF !!Comment
