Pags' Plays 9/26

[pags11]

Play Number Two:

North Carolina +3 (-110) for 1 unit
North Carolina +2.5 (+100) for 1 unit

[pags11]

Play Number Three:

Miami FL -2 (-101) for 2 units

[pags11]

Play Number Four:

Arkansas St. -1 (-102) for 2 units

[Cougar Bait]

I didn't really understand the Fresno pick until I looked into it a bit more...here's my take...Fresno scored 31 at Wisconsin and 34 vs. Boise. If they even put up 25, that means Cincy has to put up 40 (or more) to cover. Not out of the realm of possibility but the Bulldogs are giving up less than 200 yards/game against the pass (impressive considering Boise is in there) and the turnover differential is a swing of nearly 4 (Cincy -2 per game to Fresno's +1.7). That all points to a Bulldog cover...I am sure you will have more detailed analysis on Thursday, but looking at numbers alone those are things that stood out. Also like Miami...but I am waiting a bit on that one. I think the public will be all over VT at home (hoping anyway). Thanks for what you do each and every week Pags, it doesn't go unappreciated.

[PortsDave]

Cougar Bait

From what i can see the line opened at either a pk or -1 (depending on which site you check) for Virgina Tech its now up to +3 on some books.

[Ulver86]

id wait on Cincy, public is all over them as the great big east team, it will probably get to 17


conversely, if you want Miami, take them now

all the money and hype is on Miami, so if you want a good line get it early


thanks Pags and bol this week

[sweetpete57@]

I'm all over the Fresno pick. I actually think 15.5 is solid, and don't expect it to go up more. As good as Miami has been, playing their 3rd straight high-profile game in a row, AND with Oklahoma next week, this may be a trap. I'm hoping it goes to +3, and then I'll be on Tech. GL this week Pags! Last week was tough on a lot of us!

[pags11]

Play Number Five:

Central Florida +10 (+100) for 2 units

[twentyonekid]

PAGS don't worry about a thing pal,we are going to right this ship in no time,ive seen you down before and come out smelling like a rose in no time so lets just concentrate on the capping and we will be fine....im looking at a game myself here and its MINNESOTA,they seen to be playing some pretty tough ball so far and i believe they are a step ahead of NW at this point,also the road team in this series is 7-5 SU,11-1ATS SINCE 1993,and getting close to a FG right now seems good to me,i believe ill wait a little bit and see if i can get 3 or 3.5 in a day or two....best of luck budy,lets hammer the books this week!!!!!!

[pags11]

Play Number Six:

Army +10 (+101) for 2 units

[pags11]

PortsDave,

yes I'm superstitious and appreciate the good vibes...

franckmtl,

I'll keep posting, be sure of that man...I'll be against you in two of those games, will be releasing my last three plays here soon...

Smails Kid,

thank you...yeah that's what I'm thinking with the Fresno vs. Cincinnati game as well...

Cougar Bait,

appreciate it...let's have a good week...
darkenergy,

the max I play a game for is 3 units starting in week six...

angelodebo,

yes, that can be a good way to look at games but I will never bet a game specifically on a trend like that, I try to handicap all games independently...

bypp,

I'm hoping so to bud...thanks...

HawaiiFan,

that's correct...thank you...

taurus,

that B.C. vs. Clemson game was a tough one to watch for sure...glad to have your support friend...

smitch124,

B.C.'s offense was bad with our without the weather...

MSUSpartan32,

I was surprised to see MSU the dog in that one...

HarrytheHat,

not true at all man...I'll be here every week, it's what I do...

Alry45,

just remember that tough times don't last but tough people do...

ucantcme,

Cincy is a machine and people tend to bet hot teams up...thing is that I think Fresno has played two very good opponents the last two weeks and played them well...

GiveMeaBJ,

I believe that as well...thank you...

ToneLoc88,

don't worry about it man...thanks for the support...

RayzHELL,

love the positive energy man...

Cougar Bait,

you are starting to cook with gas my brother...I see things similiarly...

PortsDave,

yes I saw opener of Miami +1 at bookmaker and by the time I played it there it was pk...

Ulver86,

agree with your advice on both games...

sweetpete57@,

thanks for your thoughts...

twentyonekid,

appreciate your support...I don't really have a feel on the Minnesota vs. Northwestern game...

[pags11]

Play Number Seven:

TCU +3 (-102) for 2 units

[pags11]

Play Number Eight:

Iowa +10 (-102) for 2 units

[pags11]

Play Number Nine:

Purdue +8.5 (-101) for 2 units

[twentyonekid]

Play Number Eight:

Iowa +10 (-102) for 2 units

love this play buddy

[hhsilver]

i am curious as to where you got N CAR +3 -105 . You said you only bet at Bookmaker and MB . MB never had it at 3 ( as of now ) and bookmaker had it open at 2.5 and go to 2. +3 doesn't show in sbrline history for bookmaker . I only saw that it opened at 3 at 2 places --- Greek +3 -115 and quickly went to +2 and then today to +2.5. Betjam had this :

09/20 18:54 +3 -110 / -3 -110
09/20 18:55 +2½ -110 / -2½ -110
09/20 18:57 +2 -110 / -2 -110
09/20 22:15 +2½ -110 / -2½ -110
09/21 18:22 +2 -110 / -2 -110 .

I didn't look at all 30 sbrline books, but at about the 15 I looked at, I saw only those two had it open at +3 and -110 and -115 for the short time they were at 3.

[pags11]

twentyonekid,

thanks man...

hhsilver,

I incorrectly posted this as I have a legendz line of +3 (-110) (funded them and betjam last week) and a matchbook line of +2.5 (+100)...I will go back and fix this immediately...

[Serbone]

I know you have been successful, but why pick so early? Key injuries, weather, etc?
Big East has been doing well ATS and Fresno might finally be looking ahead to conference games, I do not like non conference visitors later at this stage of the schedule... but I hear you are THE MAN.

[pags11]

serborne,

I have been asked this question many times and really it comes down to one's style and what they are comfortable with...as far as key injuries go, most key injuries like Grothe from USF or Floyd from Notre Dame you will read about within 24 hours of their last game...weather definitely is hard to predict, but because I am mainly a dog player I'm not sure if weather affects my games as much (although it did affect my Southern Miss bet a couple of weeks ago, but that being said I'm not sure they were the right side in that game, rain or no rain...nor was Boston College this past weekend)...I know a lot of successful cappers who bet later in the week as well...this is just what has worked for me...hope this makes sense to you...

[las8]

i also love your iowa play at +10, i might even put a little down on the ML when it comes out. i also really like TCU giving points. but what confuses me is purdue pick, could you elabortate please because they lost to norther illinois after being a 13 point favorite

[Cougar Bait]

I liked Notre Dame early but the more I look at this game, the more I realize Purdue might be the play. The only that is scaring me is that Purdue can't stop anyone form scoring. Love the fact that you are on Iowa...was trying to figure out a reason to play this one...the only thing that stood out as a reason not to play Iowa was the yards per rush they are allowing (4.6) to a team that runs the ball well and often. I am sure you can also understand the revenge factor here as well from last year. The one thing Iowa has going for them is Penn State has played NO ONE and hasn't covered yet this year. I think both teams expect a close game. That's probably a solid play. As for the gas and cooking comment...just got done grilling some beer and onion brats...yum...amazing

[pags11]

las8,

thanks for your thoughts...I'll have more for you in my write-up...bottom line is if you would have watched the Purdue vs. Oregon game you might have a better understanding of my reasoning for making this play...that long with Michael Floyd being out and Notre Dame's defense has been giving up a lot of points...

[first48]

good luck pags! lets turn this thang around!

[MSUSpartan32]

Interesting slate, Pags. My main area is the Big 10 and I see a lot of rationale in the Iowa play. Still need to look into the Purdue game more, but not one I think will make the card unless Purdue were to get into double digits. I would be surprised to see NDame punt more than 2/3 times in that game. The ND defense is BAD, but probably not as bad as the Purdue D. I think they might score 40 on the Boilers.....will wait to hear more on Clausen's health.

[Doc JS]

How do you think the weather affected BC's offense?

I watched the game. The weather didn't affect BC's offense at all. The two things that affected BC's offense were:
1. Clemson's defense
2. BC's QB is not accurate with the football. They are BAD offensively.

Doc

[Doc JS]

Fresno scored 31 at Wisconsin and 34 vs. Boise. If they even put up 25, that means Cincy has to put up 40 (or more) to cover. Not out of the realm of possibility but the Bulldogs are giving up less than 200 yards/game against the pass (impressive considering Boise is in there) and the turnover differential is a swing of nearly 4 (Cincy -2 per game to Fresno's +1.7). That all points to a Bulldog cover...

All good points and Fresno may cover, but a couple of things to keep in mind...

1. Wisconsin is a middle of the pack Big Ten team. So hanging 31 on them may not mean so much.

2. This will be the second time in the last three weeks that Frenso has come east. That's a LOT of travel and it takes a toll.

3. Lastly, Fresno put a LOT into last weeks game and came out on the short end of the stick. It may be hard to travel east for the second time in three weeks and get up for a non-conference opponent.

I've watched Cincy play twice and they're pretty darn good.

The only thing I like about Fresno is they're getting more than two touchdowns...

BOL with whatever you decide!

Doc

[sirwinzalot]

Time to turn it around here buddy. I have a good feeling this week. Both of us are complete agreement. I smell a sorely needed bounceback. Do I hear a 6-3 or better week?

[pags11]

first48,

thanks man...that's the plan...

MSUSpartan32,

appreciate your thoughts on the game...I think we both agree not much defense will be played so taking a chance on Purdue being highly motivated for this one (as opposed to Notre Dame possibly being flat after two tough games), and they are getting over a TD at home...

Doc JS,

thanks for your thoughts...I see things a little differently as I thought Fresno was flat coming out of the gates vs. Boise after their overtime loss at Wisconsin...after getting down 17-0 they played Boise even...Boise is a very good team, one comprable to Cincy in fact...this week is the time I feel the only time to play Fresno is on the road vs. BCS conference teams...they actually play pretty well early in the morning too...this would be one of those circumstances...yes Cincy is good but they are coming off an emotional win at Oregon State...Fresno has the athletes to match-up with Cincy here...while many are thinking like you about not getting in Cincy's way (line move from 14 to 17), I think Fresno is worthy of consideration...

[pags11]

sirwinzalot,

I sure hope so buddy...I really appreciate your help and having faith in me...it's fun working with you man...thanks for always having discipline and being the straw that stirs the drink...

[M.W.]

i am curious as to where you got N CAR +3 -105 . You said you only bet at Bookmaker and MB . MB never had it at 3 ( as of now ) and bookmaker had it open at 2.5 and go to 2. +3 doesn't show in sbrline history for bookmaker .

It definitely was -3 at Bookmaker. I know because I bet Tech at that book at that number.

[jellobiafra]

Play Number Three:

Miami FL -2 (-101) for 2 units

LOVE this play. Also like KU and Rutgers. Good luck pags.

[IrishTim]

love this play buddy

Hate this play buddy. I'm just kidding.

No way I can bet against my Irish but best of luck on this all all your other plays, pags.

[Skanless1]

pags, i'm not going to lie bro, the first couple of weeks have really sucked w/you losing and us/those who tail you losing, losing's never fun.. but then again, NOONE is forcing ANYONE to tail you or use any of your picks. each of us has the freedom to bet whatever we want. i appreciate the thought and effort you put into your write ups and picks, and i know you'll eventually turn this thing around.

you don't owe anyone any apologies or explanations. just do your thing.

[icemantbi]

Play Number Nine:

Purdue +8.5 (-101) for 2 units

Love this play Pags! Already had this one pegged as a strong lean once the lines came out. Watch for a very strong performance after they got upset by Northern Illinois. This will be a statement game for them, and I expect this game to be a very close, down to the wire type game. Line currently down to 7.5 at Pinny despite a large percentage of the public on Notre Dame. Looks ALOT similar to UCONN.

You'll bounce back this week Pags... don't sweat it, it's been a tough start to the season for MANY cappers. I know I've had my ass handed to me this year. We'll get this ship righted, still a long season ahead.

[nohuddleoffense]

I like the Fresno pick they have played their oppenents real tough so far, don't see them getting blown out. TCU pick is good too, Clemson a bunch of underachievers in recent history, and I'll be waiting to see what odds I can get for TCU to win outright. North Carolina sounds good to me as well, another game where I'll check what odds I can get for the UNC outright win. Miami that's a ballesy one, VT is tough at Lane Stadium and I would expect that place to be hyped for this game, however Jacory Harris is the real deal and could be the difference, superior qb to Tyrod Taylor. The Iowa one I'm not so sure about Penn State will be looking for redemption after last years tough loss to them, but doesn't mean they'll run away with anything.

Wondering how you feel about Cal -6 1/2 on the road at Oregon?