Pags' Plays 9/26

Hemlock21 · 09-20-09, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by pags11

Plays will be posted as my offers at matchbook are fully matched. I will choose to spend my time handicapping rather than dealing with any drama over my picks the last three weeks. Thanks to the good guys for always having my back, it is greatly appreciated.

-pags

Don't worry about it Pags....We all are just a good week away from getting it going....V. Tech and TCU looking really good to me this weekend. I hope people like Miami this weekend so I can get +3 at home...

Hemlock21 · 09-20-09, 11:13 PM

It's 9/26 Pags. It does feel like October already though

jimmymo · 09-20-09, 11:13 PM

Hang tough pags....the downside of variance can be a bitch, but it is part of the game we play.....don't lose the swagger....you da man.

pags11 · 09-20-09, 11:34 PM

hemlock,

hopefully the mods can change that for me here soon...I need to look into that TCU game some more...

jimmymo,

you are right about that man...thanks for stopping by and for your support...

VegasDave · 09-20-09, 11:45 PM

Fixed it for you pags. Best of luck this week!

pags11 · 09-21-09, 12:19 AM

dave,

thanks very much...

SexyMit · 09-21-09, 12:36 AM

I didn't have a very good college weekend either. The good thing is there is always the bounce back week. And that happens this week!

ImmaBammer12 · 09-21-09, 12:48 AM

Yeah Pags, I've been around this site for a little over a year and you're a great addition and wealth of knowledge to all of us who enjoy this. You give us angles to games that many of us never saw. Please hang tough and don't pay attention to all the BS. Best of luck this week.

romanowski · 09-21-09, 01:06 AM

get you some tennessee and florida state pags

pags11 · 09-21-09, 01:23 AM

SexyMit,

let's hope it's a bounce back week!

ImmaBammer12,

your support and kind words are greatly appreciated sir...

romanowski,

I'll check out those games brother...

Announcement:

I will be playing nine games this week. My system calls for 7 per week but every once in a while I find a week where I only like 5 games (did that in like week 10 two years ago) and occasionally I will find more than 7 games that I like (like this week). It is not me chasing or not having discipline, bottom line is I like 9 games this week. Thanks.

pags11 · 09-21-09, 01:32 AM

Announcement:

All plays this week will be for 2 units each.

pags11 · 09-21-09, 02:26 AM

Play Number One:

Fresno St. +14.5 (-101) for 2 units

clowncar · 09-21-09, 02:28 AM

hmmmm what will the rest be , i wonder ?

Gl this week pags.

pags11 · 09-21-09, 02:33 AM

clowncar,

you are a living legend...

Mendozaaaa · 09-21-09, 03:20 AM

chin up pags, you'll definitely bounce back and when you do it'll be with a bang! as they say, when the going gets tough, the tough get going... and the weak just whinge! Good luck this week and I look forward to your analysis man!

efcbomber · 09-21-09, 04:01 AM

Good luck this week Pags. Hopefully some of these muppets stop tailing and beating down your lines

pags11 · 09-21-09, 04:13 AM

Mendozaaaa,

appreciate it man, I believe you definitely have to be tough to be in this business and have to be in things for the long term...I'll hopefully getting it going here soon...GL...

efcbomber,

thanks for posting and for the support...GL to you as well...

PortsDave · 09-21-09, 05:25 AM

Time to get some positive vibes going through this thread, this is the week that it starts to turn around, the books have had their turn now its payback time.

Pags, I'm not sure whether your a superstitious guy or not when it comes to gambling (I know i am) but is there anything you don't like being posted or done in your threads? just so that we can get some good karma flowing this week.

franckmtl · 09-21-09, 06:02 AM

Hi Pags! I hope you're gonna continue your great work, it's always appreciated to have your opinion and write-up on those games. Thanks for your time and patience. I have 3 games in mind, Clemson -3 ; Stanford -7 and Georgia Tech -2,5. Those 3 games are unranked trap. Do you have any opinion about these games?

Smails Kid · 09-21-09, 06:13 AM

Good luck this week, Pags ... always enjoy the insight, the write-ups, the analysis and your take on college football. Some tough weeks are behind you, but now we've all seen what teams bring to the table. Just like the BCS, in waiting until Oct to begin its ranking of teams, you can now get a better feel of the landscape (like Nebraska last week) and unleash the dominance.

Pat Hill and the Bulldogs are at it again --- Any Time, Any Where, Anyone --- and the upper tier of the Big East is the next stop after giving the Big Ten yet another scare two weeks ago.

Looking forward to the rest of your plays!

Cougar Bait · 09-21-09, 06:29 AM

Keep it goin Pags, you are the man

I have learned so much from...

darkenergy · 09-21-09, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by PortsDave

Time to get some positive vibes going through this thread, this is the week that it starts to turn around, the books have had their turn now its payback time.

Pags, I'm not sure whether your a superstitious guy or not when it comes to gambling (I know i am) but is there anything you don't like being posted or done in your threads? just so that we can get some good karma flowing this week.

Tailed Pag's week1 and week2....lost some, but no complaint. Pag already mentioned in his first thread, week 1-5 is for appertizer... go light as advised...week 5-9 is the time to make serious money as he can fully understand what the team's capable of. Then we betting lighter after week 9.
BTW pag....what's unit you normally bet on week 5-9 (sorry I didn't pay attention on your thread last year

)
I hope everyone as happy as the girl below......hope this will jinx all the bad luck for the last two weeks.

Attached Files

angelodebo · 09-21-09, 08:57 AM

Any ranked teams getting points for unranked teams? That always catches my attention. miami and oregon this past week being an example of that philosophy..

bypp · 09-21-09, 10:37 AM

Pags, your hard work is always appreciated around here. I know you'll bounce back soon. Best of luck this week!

HawaiiFan · 09-21-09, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by darkenergy

Tailed Pag's week1 and week2....lost some, but no complaint. Pag already mentioned in his first thread, week 1-5 is for appertizer... go light as advised...week 5-9 is the time to make serious money as he can fully understand what the team's capable of. Then we betting lighter after week 9.
BTW pag....what's unit you normally bet on week 5-9 (sorry I didn't pay attention on your thread last year

)
I hope everyone as happy as the girl below......hope this will jinx all the bad luck for the last two weeks.

I believe he said 1-3 units. 3 at most during the meat of the season. This week, he is throwing 2 units per game.

taurus · 09-21-09, 10:48 AM

i did take notes on that BC _Clemson game_ , paga, and promised you a "report"

By now you know how awful BC's offense looked.
Clem took opening KO to their 35. First play was the longest from scrimmage the whole game, I believe. Pretty pass and run for 30 yards. Spiller ran for 10 and then BC defense stiffened, intercepting a pass on 3rd & long.
BC went 3 and out, punted, and Spiller returned 70 yards untouched for the only TD of the game.
BC got a pass int call giving them 1st d on 39, then promptly threw an INT.
Clemson returned the favor and BC from their 38 went 3 and out.
Clemson from their 8 ran 5 plays, punted.
BC from their 32 went 3 and out, losing 7 yds on a completed pass.
After BC punt, Clem started from their 30 and after one QB scramble for FD, they punted into end zone.
BC from the 20 now showed what typified their offense the whole 1st half.
LOse 4 yd on run
Holding penalty
DElay of game
Pass knocked down at LOS.
4 yd run.
Punt out of end zone.
Clemson then made a couple of Spiller running FDs, stalled, and kicked FG
Clemson 10 BC 0
Shinskie at QB for BC.
1st down run lost 5.
Shinskie then fumbled and Clemson recovered BC 8 yd line.
BC defense dug in and Clemson kicked FG # 2 13-0.
BC returned KO to 29.
1st down lose 2
completed pass for no gain
sack, fumble, BC recovered, punt
Clemson from their 44 recorded 3 FDs with Spiller doing the heavy lifting.
DRive stalls, FG # 3 16-0
BC from their 24 went 3 and out and punted
Clemson from their 40 did the same.
BC took a knee to end the half.

I won't go any further because many in this thread are probably bored and pissed at me already. Clemson did kick a 52 yard FG early second half, there were two weather delays and I switched channels and did not see BCs TD.

Now the good news - You are starting off my slate this week with 9 and not the usual 7. I like that. Good Luck and I think this is the breakthrough week for you.

smitch124 · 09-21-09, 10:50 AM

How do you think the weather affected BC's offense?

MSUSpartan32 · 09-21-09, 11:45 AM

Pags, looking forward to your plays this week as always. Michigan State moneyline will be my biggest play of the weekend.

HarrytheHat · 09-21-09, 02:09 PM

Wow, a weird thing happened this morning. A guy I turned on to you came in to work this a.m. and said you weren't going to be posting your picks online anymore. I'm like wtf, that can't be right. Glad he was wrong. BOL.

Alry45 · 09-21-09, 02:42 PM

Pags, better not see you on USCe this week!

BOL bud...if it makes you feel better I went 0-6 last week on my straight wagers

ucantcme · 09-21-09, 02:49 PM

Pags,

I have seen the line for Fresno up to +15.5 already, any info on why it is moving this way?

GiveMeaBJ · 09-21-09, 03:02 PM

Pags don't even worry about it. Every good capper I know who has been winning for years is struggling right now. But, over time the cream rises to the top.

ToneLoc88 · 09-21-09, 03:27 PM

Pags,

I just joined this past weekend but have been following you since last season. Just wanted to apologize for calling your BC pick dumb in last weeks thread. Still love your write ups and picks and will not lose confidence in them. Definitely see big things coming and will have nothing but positive things to say no matter what. Looking forward to the rest of the picks. Thanks again for the good work.

RayzHELL · 09-21-09, 03:27 PM

LOVE this play!

Originally posted by pags11

Play Number One:

Fresno St. +14.5 (-101) for 2 units

Love your play and with a little insurance hope to cash in (by the way, I already know you do not buy points or play parlays usually).

Parlay Bet
Description
Sep 21 08:35 PM EST-Football NFL - 235 Indianapolis Colts -170 for Game
Sep 27 01:00 PM EST-Football NFL - 408 Baltimore Ravens -9 [buying 4 points] -220 for Game
Sep 26 12:00 PM EST-Football NCAA - 327 Fresno State Bulldogs +19½ [buying 4 points] -195 for Game

3 Team Parlay
Bet Slip Total Risk Win
$328.00 USD $807.76 USD

If Indy COLTS lose I will try again to put a bet a parlay in place with Fresno.

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T.A.N.S.T.A.A.F.L. ("There ain't no such thing as a free lunch" from The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress by Robert A. Heinlein)
T.A.N.S.T.A.A.B.L. ("There ain't no such thing as a BLOW-OUT LOCK" from Betting Advice Experience by Ray Z. HELL)