Pags' Plays 9/26

[snapstick]

i like the fresno pick they have played their oppenents real tough so far, don't see them getting blown out. tcu pick is good too, clemson a bunch of underachievers in recent history, and i'll be waiting to see what odds i can get for tcu to win outright. North carolina sounds good to me as well, another game where i'll check what odds i can get for the unc outright win. Miami that's a ballesy one, vt is tough at lane stadium and i would expect that place to be hyped for this game, however jacory harris is the real deal and could be the difference, superior qb to tyrod taylor. The iowa one i'm not so sure about penn state will be looking for redemption after last years tough loss to them, but doesn't mean they'll run away with anything.

Wondering how you feel about cal -6 1/2 on the road at oregon?

last i checked i noticed they just lost by 30+ and game up over 60 at home.

[icemantbi]

Remember something, Vegas doesn't give away free money. Take for example the Notre Dame/Purdue game (that's the one I had my eye on for the get go, haven't looked at the other plays yet) Everyone is going to be on Notre Dame on Saturday, no one will take Purdue after they lost SU to Northern Illinois on Saturday, yet the line opened at 8.5 and has moved down to 7.5? Are you telling me Vegas is saying "here fellas, take Notre Dame so we can give you some free cash", I don't think so. Notre Dame is VERY suspect on defence, giving up 38 against Michigan and 30 against Michigan State. Now look at Purdue, they put up 52 points against Toledo, 36 against Oregon and they had a BAD game against Northern Illinois (and teams DO HAVE BAD GAMES!) where they only put up 28. But the fact here is Purdue is going to be focused on this game after the upset, and their offense CAN put up a big number against a suspect Notre Dame defence. This is going to be a high scoring affair, with both teams trading points all day, but at the end of the day, it's going to be a close one.

[icemantbi]

last i checked i noticed they just lost by 30+ and game up over 60 at home.

What? They lost by 17 points against Boise State. Line is currently 16.5, if I use that theory then taking the 16.5 points is the right play.

[icemantbi]

You also forget that Fresno State put up 31 points against Wisky (7 were in OT) and 34 against Boise State. (by the way, Wisky also struggled against Northern Illinois, so maybe, JUST MAYBE Northern Illinois isn't as bad as some think they are) So they can put points on the board. I can see them hanging with Cincy.

[pags11]

iceman,

again very similiar thoughts to how I see Fresno's effort shaping up this week...good stuff...

[nohuddleoffense]

How many 60 yard TD rushes for Ryan Mathews this week?

[pags11]

the kid is flat impressive isn't he nohuddle?...

[nohuddleoffense]

No joke, one TD run thought it was bad defense, second one maybe he's having a good day, third one that boys unreal, no fluke when you gash em time after time it's as simple as that.

[pags11]

yep, I think he has a chance to be a first round pick if he keeps it up...

[Mjllomb]

GL Pags. Good stuff here so far.

[pags11]

Mjllomb,

thanks for posting in my thread and stopping by SBR...glad to hear your liking what I've posted so far this week...GL this week my friend...

[jsmithj88]

Play Number Five: Central Florida +10 (+100) for 2 units

central florida? who are they playing?

[pags11]

yes jsmith I played UCF...they are playing East Carolina...

[dave11486]

Really like what you've got so far... I think you've got a big week coming for you bud.

[taurus]

Uh oh. Trouble brewing, pags. If I never found you on this forum, I would myself be on TCU, Purdue, and Iowa - sure as hell. And I would lean your way on each of the others.
Here's wishing you big success in Week 4.

[Budha Kane]

Play Number Six:

Army +10 (+101) for 2 units

like the play here. running dog i think. still can't believe they did not cover for me last week. Army coach is starting to make a difference.

[porterkid69]

like the play here. running dog i think. still can't believe they did not cover for me last week. Army coach is starting to make a difference.

Having six fumbles (4 on option pitches) sure did not help the chance for that cover.

[ZBOIZ]

That Miami and VT game will be interesting. Even though I think V.T defense is better than Miami, Miami offense is better than VT. offense.So that tells me whoever defense shows up and play better will win this game. That game is a coin toss but I believe you did right taking the points.

[VegasPlayer]

Howdy Pags,

Just thought I'd weigh in with my 2 cents worth. Been tailing you this season right down to the money management. (Very small wagers) I'm down a whopping 1.75 units. Man, gonna have to sell the house. I think your picks make sense and are very well thought through. I've paid touts for less and learned a very expensive lesson doing so. I cap other sports and simply don't have the time or patience for football. So I follow those who do and apparently enjoy doing it and sharing it with others. It's hard to read some of the criticism on here for posted plays that require an investment of absolutely nothing other than the time required to read and play them. Many on here are keeping things positive and hopefully that will continue. Keep up the good work and know that there are many who support what your doing whether they express it on the thread or not.

[odusmykal]

Solid card Pags.. This is gonna be our week!!

[pags11]

dave11486,

gives me some reassurance to hear you say that...GL this week...

taurus,

very good to hear we are thinking alike this week, very good...

Budha Kane,

agree that Ellerson is a good one, he seems to have instilled a winning attitude...

porterkid69,

yes and to think they still found a way to win that game (although not cover)...

ZBOIZ,

once you really study the numbers I think you will find that Va. Tech's defense, especially their run defense, isn't as stout as many people think...key to this game will be Miami's running game...also RB Ryan Williams has a sore ankle and he is a major part of Va. Tech's offense...will be an intersting game for sure...thanks for your thoughts...

VegasPlayer,

appreciate all of your thoughts and support...

odusmykal,

I'm glad you think so...all I know how to do is keep truckin'...

[DanOmaha]

BOL to all - thanks Pags for your efforts, I'm on for all 9.

[nohuddleoffense]

Oh wow if Ryan Williams has a bum ankle I'm liking the U much more this week, Ryan Williams has been the only player whos impressed me this year in VTs offense. The Hokies are my favorite college football team but I'm deffinently going against them if Williams isn't 100%. Tyrod Taylor can not carry this team on his own, while Jacory Harris can carry a team on his own. I don't hear too much about the injuries thanks for that nugget of information. Off topic but do you know if Barkley is playing for USC this week?

[ShawnVanCover]

Hey pags..new guy here..but I've heard about you.Do you think that purdue line will keep going down?I was hopeing the public might push it back up before sat...thanks.

[spongerat]

GL this week, 9 plays wow, I think this is where you get back to even almost

[MLM50]

Any ranked teams getting points for unranked teams? That always catches my attention. miami and oregon this past week being an example of that philosophy..

Yeah. UNC is getting points from Georgia Tech.

[nohuddleoffense]

Yeah. UNC is getting points from Georgia Tech.

They're both ranked I thought?

TCU is getting points from Clemson though

[GoSooners]

Pags...It looks like your on a lot of my running dogs this week...BOL buddy. I think you have a good week.

[MartinBlank]

Love this play Pags! Already had this one pegged as a strong lean once the lines came out. Watch for a very strong performance after they got upset by Northern Illinois. This will be a statement game for them, and I expect this game to be a very close, down to the wire type game. Line currently down to 7.5 at Pinny despite a large percentage of the public on Notre Dame. Looks ALOT similar to UCONN.

You'll bounce back this week Pags... don't sweat it, it's been a tough start to the season for MANY cappers. I know I've had my ass handed to me this year. We'll get this ship righted, still a long season ahead.

I love debating football, so don't take this personally. Just asking some football questions.

I don't get the Purdue play. In fact, I have loaded up on Notre Dame.

Perhaps someone can convince me that I was wrong.

The Northern Illinois/Purdue game really wasn't that close. NIU led 28-7 and then missed a 25 yard FG that would have made it 31-7. They also turned it over at the Purdue 18 yard line when it was 28-14.

Northern Illinois rushed for nearly 300 yards. And I am not ready to call NIU a good team just yet. They were down 21 to Wisconsin before they go the back door cover.

Reading the Purdue boards they want Elliot replaced as QB.

So it comes down to two questions for me.

Which team has the better offense? It isn't close. It is ND. Clausen is second in pass efficiency, and he has thrown 9 tds against zero picks. He is also completing nearly 70% of his passes. While they will be without Floyd, they are so ridiculously deep at WR, I don't know if they will miss a beat. After all, they went the length of the field to beat MSU without Floyd.

Also, which team has the better defense? Both teams are struggling defensively, but I think ND has played two good offensive football teams in Michigan and Michigan State. Purdue has played a decent Oregon offense, and a so-so NIU offense. I think ND gets the slight nod on defense.

I am surprised the line is where it is at.

Best of luck to all of you whichever side you have.

[sirwinzalot]

Only disagree with one comment you made here buddy. Ryan Matthews is not a 1st rounder in my opinion, but I have been very high on him for a long time. I am thinking more like a 3rd rounder. However he is very impressive. One of the reasons I think he is not a 1st rounder, is I don't think he has enough top end speed, and has had past injury issues. He is a definite rb sleeper in the draft and look for him to go in that 3rd round range.

[awhitejackson]

Absolutely Love these plays here my friend....Funny is that I liked 4 of them right off and your piks give me a good bit of confidence..... Love the Ark State play as Ive been following the Sun Belt closely this year thinkin I would get an edge on the books (hasnt happened yet but...).... Also Really diggin on Purdue... The tough way they played Oregon (lost in final mins) and then fell hard last week to N.I. I see a team ready to go all out... Similar situation with Fresno State (two tough losses)... Havent relly looked at Army yet and may not get a opportunity to cap this but I will tail this one nontheless..... Hardest Game I see here is Miami/VT and I look forward to seeing your analysis....Anyhow Good Luck buddy... I see a killing week here!!

[Dan]

Plays will be posted as my offers at matchbook are fully matched. I will choose to spend my time handicapping rather than dealing with any drama over my picks the last three weeks. Thanks to the good guys for always having my back, it is greatly appreciated.

-pags

Thanks pags!

[nobs]

last i checked i noticed they just lost by 30+ and game up over 60 at home.

Snapstick,


They did not lose by 30+ or give up 60 at home ??? Are you looking at the wrong team ? They lost by 17 to a Boise State team that would paste Cincinatti. They gave up 51, not 60. They lost by 17, not 30+. They are now getting the same 17 against a team that isn't half as good as Boise. I dont know where you are getting that they lost by 30+ and gave up 60.

Boise State is the ONLY team that has beaten Fresno State by 14 or more in the past 2 years. There are only 2 teams that have beaten them by 5 points or more. Fresno State has lost 6 games by 5 points or less last year + this year.

Cincinatti is not Boise State. Boise State's Defense has given up 10 or less points to 10 of its last 15 opponents ( check it, it sounds impossible but its true ). Fresno State scored 34 and was only down by 7 in the 4th quarter.

Now Cincy is favored by 17. Cincinatti has not beaten a good team and no team they have beaten has beaten a good team all year long.

This game is a huge step up in competition for Cincy and a huge step down in Competition for Fresno State. Cincinatti is not going to cover 17, and they just might lose the game.

[pokernut9999]

Pags I love your plays on Miami, North Carolina, TCU !!!!

3 WINNERS in my book.

[jagmaster]

Pags would like your thoughts on wake against bc, actually took bc last week and it was the worst offense output i have ever seen. I dont see them even being in this game at all and I know you had bc last week so would really like your input.