Pags' Plays 9/26

MartinBlank · 09-22-09, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by jagmaster

Pags would like your thoughts on wake at home against bc, actually took bc last week and it was the worst offense output i have ever seen. I dont see them even being in this game at all and I know you had bc last week so would really like your input.

Wake is on the road this week against BC. Their first road game of the year.

Hemlock21 · 09-22-09, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by jagmaster

Pags would like your thoughts on wake against bc, actually took bc last week and it was the worst offense output i have ever seen. I dont see them even being in this game at all and I know you had bc last week so would really like your input.

I also took BC last week not because of Pags though. BC has a very good defense but don't let last weeks game confuse you. The offense putting up 54 total yards is another story. BC still has only allowed one offense touchdown this season and it wasn't to Clemson. BC will shut down Wake on the ground but that offense of BC is quite terrible so i wouldn't wager on this game there is alot of value out there besides this game GL

Wassymac · 09-22-09, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

I love debating football, so don't take this personally. Just asking some football questions.

I don't get the Purdue play. In fact, I have loaded up on Notre Dame.

Perhaps someone can convince me that I was wrong.

The Northern Illinois/Purdue game really wasn't that close. NIU led 28-7 and then missed a 25 yard FG that would have made it 31-7. They also turned it over at the Purdue 18 yard line when it was 28-14.

Northern Illinois rushed for nearly 300 yards. And I am not ready to call NIU a good team just yet. They were down 21 to Wisconsin before they go the back door cover.

Reading the Purdue boards they want Elliot replaced as QB.

So it comes down to two questions for me.

Which team has the better offense? It isn't close. It is ND. Clausen is second in pass efficiency, and he has thrown 9 tds against zero picks. He is also completing nearly 70% of his passes. While they will be without Floyd, they are so ridiculously deep at WR, I don't know if they will miss a beat. After all, they went the length of the field to beat MSU without Floyd.

Also, which team has the better defense? Both teams are struggling defensively, but I think ND has played two good offensive football teams in Michigan and Michigan State. Purdue has played a decent Oregon offense, and a so-so NIU offense. I think ND gets the slight nod on defense.

I am surprised the line is where it is at.

Best of luck to all of you whichever side you have.

I think you'll get the Purdue team that controlled nearly the entire game against Oregon instead of the team that laid down against NIU last Saturday. To me it was all mental...they thought they should have beat Oregon @ Autzen so they only had to show up to whip NIU then move on to the game that matters. I don't know how you'd explain it any other way as that team looked nothing like the Purdue team that showed up vs Toledo/Oregon. No question about it though...they were beat soundly.

They'll be motivated. You'll see 20+ different looks/formations on the Purdue offense (like the Oregon game) which you didn't see against NIU. Seemed to me like Purdue was saving some facets of the offense for ND against NIU and it backfired. I think Hope and the entire team just flat got caught sleeping.

My opinion is we'll get a shootout with the game coming down to the final possession.

Good luck as well to both sides of this one.

daneblazer · 09-22-09, 11:26 PM

Good luck this week

awhitejackson · 09-23-09, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by nobs

Snapstick,

They did not lose by 30+ or give up 60 at home ??? Are you looking at the wrong team ? They lost by 17 to a Boise State team that would paste Cincinatti. They gave up 51, not 60. They lost by 17, not 30+. They are now getting the same 17 against a team that isn't half as good as Boise. I dont know where you are getting that they lost by 30+ and gave up 60.

Boise State is the ONLY team that has beaten Fresno State by 14 or more in the past 2 years. There are only 2 teams that have beaten them by 5 points or more. Fresno State has lost 6 games by 5 points or less last year + this year.

Cincinatti is not Boise State. Boise State's Defense has given up 10 or less points to 10 of its last 15 opponents ( check it, it sounds impossible but its true ). Fresno State scored 34 and was only down by 7 in the 4th quarter.

Now Cincy is favored by 17. Cincinatti has not beaten a good team and no team they have beaten has beaten a good team all year long.

This game is a huge step up in competition for Cincy and a huge step down in Competition for Fresno State. Cincinatti is not going to cover 17, and they just might lose the game.

Very Good Analysis here buddy.... Makes me feel a little better even with line moves.....GL!

clowncar · 09-23-09, 01:26 AM

I like 8 of them !

haha.

Around late night right now if you want to talk football.

For those questioning the fresno state play , i think there is a major difference between this fresno st offense and the two offenses faced by the bearcats prior. Rutgers and Oregon State were easier for the bearcats to defend. Stop the rutgers power rungame and make natale try and beat you which he probably cannot. Stop Quizz and the oregon state fly sweep and try to make canfield beat you which he probably cannot. But in the case of Fresno State , they will have to focus on stopping mathews but this time there is a qb to wr combination that can damage them when they do. Coburn is an adequate qb who has talent in Ajiortutu, wylie , west and Moore onthe outside to convert with. Unlike the game at rutgers or at oregon state , you are looking at laying 17 in this game now if you like the bearcats. Always have to put 17 points into perspective. The bulldogs made some defensive lapses last week and gave up 51 points ( mostly on the ground which is not as much of a concern for this matchup ) and still lost by just 17.

love the play and locked it in tonight.

pags11 · 09-23-09, 01:39 AM

clowncar,

great stuff as usual bud...dialing you now...

dchecks · 09-23-09, 04:17 AM

Pags focus.. Focus! Don't lose your cool kid. Do not let these fools keep you from the task at hand. Great picks and the write-ups to back them up! Keep up the good work!!!!

DangerousOne · 09-23-09, 06:43 AM

Pags,
Just wanted to chime in and say thanks again for putting out your picks for us all. We really appreciate all the hark work you do for us. BOL this week

porterkid69 · 09-23-09, 08:13 AM

Good Luck to all this week. I'm with you on 7 of these picks and apperciate your hard work on the season. It takes a thick skin to put your picks out here. Thanks and keep the faith.

cs11787 · 09-23-09, 08:52 AM

Pags,
The Iowa pick looks great. Theyve been playing some great football lately and they actually beat Penn St last year (I think PSU was better last year). The only thing that scares me which is stupid is that PSU has to cover a spread here pretty soon and theyrve goin into this game with a chip on their shoulder from the loss last year.

james4512 · 09-23-09, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

I love debating football, so don't take this personally. Just asking some football questions.

I don't get the Purdue play. In fact, I have loaded up on Notre Dame.

Perhaps someone can convince me that I was wrong.

The Northern Illinois/Purdue game really wasn't that close. NIU led 28-7 and then missed a 25 yard FG that would have made it 31-7. They also turned it over at the Purdue 18 yard line when it was 28-14.

Northern Illinois rushed for nearly 300 yards. And I am not ready to call NIU a good team just yet. They were down 21 to Wisconsin before they go the back door cover.

Reading the Purdue boards they want Elliot replaced as QB.

So it comes down to two questions for me.

Which team has the better offense? It isn't close. It is ND. Clausen is second in pass efficiency, and he has thrown 9 tds against zero picks. He is also completing nearly 70% of his passes. While they will be without Floyd, they are so ridiculously deep at WR, I don't know if they will miss a beat. After all, they went the length of the field to beat MSU without Floyd.

Also, which team has the better defense? Both teams are struggling defensively, but I think ND has played two good offensive football teams in Michigan and Michigan State. Purdue has played a decent Oregon offense, and a so-so NIU offense. I think ND gets the slight nod on defense.

I am surprised the line is where it is at.

Best of luck to all of you whichever side you have.

yeah i definatly like ND specially that the is -7 now. ND is GREAT vs bad teams, vs descent teams there defense gets exploited but vs teams with a substantial amount of talent ND dominates.

riggs · 09-23-09, 10:37 AM

Hey Pags, you're still the man! Don't pay any attention to all these fags! Just for that I'm gonna tail a few of your plays this week. We all have up and down streaks, not everyone's perfect. I got my a** kicked week one in college then f***in ripped the nfl two weeks in a row!

Hang in there buddy,

Riggs

taurus · 09-23-09, 10:41 AM

pags- just this observation that caught my eye this morning.
I presume you are aware of this - -
you have the visiting team in 7 of the 9 games.
last week it was 6 visiting teams out of 7.
I didn't go back any further
GL

MSUSpartan32 · 09-23-09, 11:55 AM

Yeah, Pags has been in on a lot of road dogs lately.

I am interested to see the openers for many Big 10 teams this week. As I have posted before, I think Wisconsin is a total fraud, Purdue has an awful defense, and Minny and NWestern are a bit of unknowns. I still think the only game to play in the Big 10 this week is Michigan State, but I am also leaning towards Iowa at +10.

BigMoney · 09-23-09, 12:58 PM

Im with ya Pags

Hey Pags Im with you on Fresno St+17 and N.carolina+5 and Miami Fla-2...

whats your thoughts on Ole Miss-3 and Missouri-7?? loveto hear what you have to say, thanks Dave

VenomLugz · 09-23-09, 01:47 PM

hey pags11 how about Bosie st and Cali?

Flaghunter · 09-23-09, 02:51 PM

Hey Pags, I go along with your statement early in the thread about the little one's whining. DON"T cry on this thread send a message and deal with it one on one. enough said!!! I have told you this before YOU make me money. I learned from last year, how to watch your inisight. I believe by the end of of the season we will be up large. I like several picks from you this week. Miami,TCU,Army,Arkansas St.
I wonder a little about North Carolina and Gtechs quick offensive, even though Miami shut them down, not sure about NC staying with them. I am not to question the man, just wondering. Looking forward to the wit you will provide for us in your write-ups. Thanks for your work. BOL this week.

bigcat1 · 09-23-09, 02:53 PM

just wanted to say, you got alot more people watching ya than you think, i have watched for the past couple of years, won a lot more than i lost with ya...except for last week....keep up the good work

Superman455 · 09-23-09, 03:13 PM

Thanks PAGS for taking the time to post your picks and your write ups every week. Last time I checked you werent charging for any of this, nor have you made anyone follow any of your picks, so the doubters need to back up and look at the overall picture here. I have followed your picks for quite some time and have made money in the long run. I know that there are alot more of us here that want to thank you than the ones that want to bash you when don't hit the perfect card. I am curious to see your write up on the Penn St / Iowa game.

pags11 · 09-23-09, 04:17 PM

cs11787,

agree with all that you wrote...GL...

james4512,

I guess we will see on Saturday, but remember to lay a TD plus on the road (especially when you are a team like Notre Dame that everyone gets up for), you have to have a defense...

riggs,

thanks man...yes some of these people are definitely queers, but what else can we do besides keep truckin'? I am not a pussy and I'm in it for the long haul, sounds like you are too...

taurus,

usually my ratio is 2 to 3 home teams out of 7 plays...I admit these past two weeks I haven't found as many home teams that I like but I do think it's hazardous to one's health to play too many road teams...thanks for looking out for me...

MSUSpartan32,

yep, this is the same strategy though that I've used for many years...just am picking the wrong dogs and the wrong road teams thus far...

BigMoney,

man both of those games scare me...Ole Miss is a good team, but South Carolina will be highly motivated...line appears low, but whenever that's the case the dog usually covers...not willing to take a chance betting the game...something is definitely wrong with Nevada and I wouldn't touch them with a ten foot pole, but Missouri is young, traveling across country and laying over a TD...no thanks...

VenomLugz,

Boise laying 16.5 without Harper in a cross country trip to Bowling Green concerns me, but I couldn't bet Bowling Greeen here...no play for me...Cal laying those kind of points to Oregon doesn't interest me either but I can't take Oregon due to Masoli not throwing the ball well...

Flaghunter,

exactly man...we are big ****ing boys, this is gambling...sometimes you lose, sometimes you make bad picks and sometimes you get on a losing streak...we can just move forward...going to try a little more simplistic approach with my write-ups tomorrow, we'll see how you like it...

bigcat1,

appreciate you saying so man...

Superman455,

I post for guys like you man, not for these other complaining ****s...thanks...

looseonthelead · 09-23-09, 04:19 PM

well played...

Cougar Bait · 09-23-09, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by pags11

in the meantime, go jack yourself off to occupy some time, I'm trying to handicap some games...and win Purdue covers on Saturday just think of me laughing at your stupid ass...

I have to admit I laughed out loud at this...and I am not trying to get in the middle of a Mexican stand off here, but I can understand why Martin likes Notre Dame because that was my initial lean as well. I can also understand why Pags likes Purdue because the more I looked at this game the more I realized the Boilers are a much better team than they showed last week. I have watched all 3 Purdue games this year. They can and will put up points on the Irish. But neither defense can stop anybody, and this is the most important game on Purdue's schedule, but it's not the most important one on the Irish's schedule...I also feel the loss of Floyd is a big deal, as is the home crowd. If Purdue is still within 2 TD's in the 3rd quarter, I feel they cover the number.

pags11 · 09-23-09, 04:30 PM

cougar bait,

glad I could make you smile man...the game is definitely going to be a wild one, but I feel Purdue is the side (and that Martinblank is a dickwad as well)...

pags11 · 09-23-09, 04:32 PM

cougar bait,

one more thing, RB Allen didn't practice yesterday with a sprained ankle...just fyi...

ZBOIZ · 09-23-09, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by pags11

cougar bait,

glad I could make you smile man...the game is definitely going to be a wild one, but I feel Purdue is the side (and that Martinblank is a dickwad as well)...

pags11 · 09-23-09, 04:34 PM

thanks loose...

also FB Aldridge will not play in this one...so Notre Dame is to cover this game with no defense, average special teams, without Floyd and Aldridge and with Allen and Clausen hurt?...hmm, I just don't see it, but a **** like Martinblank doesn't seem to do his homework, unlike me...

ZBOIZ · 09-23-09, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by pags11

thanks loose...

also FB Aldridge will not play in this one...so Notre Dame is to cover this game with no defense, average special teams, without Floyd and Aldridge and with Allen and Clausen hurt?...hmm, I just don't see it, but a **** like Martinblank doesn't seem to do his homework, unlike me...

Pags man I never seen you like this... Don't worry about those comments just do what you do

pags11 · 09-23-09, 04:36 PM

gotta throw in some comedy to the thread right zboiz?

Cougar Bait · 09-23-09, 04:37 PM

Would you consider a moneyline play? I only play sides, but is it worth a look in your opinion?

pags11 · 09-23-09, 04:39 PM

zboiz, you weren't here in the old days when the moderators didn't do shit...it was like the wild, wild west and I had to handle my business...I'm trying to fire myself up right now and it's working...

pags11 · 09-23-09, 04:40 PM

I myself wouldn't for a couple of reasons cougar bait...I typically don't make moneyline wagers for one and for two Purdue's defense is about like Notre Dame's, not good...

Cougar Bait · 09-23-09, 04:43 PM

That's pretty much what I figured you'd say, but you were getting very confident, and with all that new info, I was uncertain if you thought Purdue might have an outright win here. Thoughts on the line movement here? Seems very odd. At some books it's moved 2 points, but the bets are distributed fairly evenly according to SBR...

pags11 · 09-23-09, 04:53 PM

cougar bait,

don't get me wrong, I think Purdue has a shot for the outright victory here, it's just not my type of style to make a moneyline play...I try to stick to my straight plays...75% of the public is on Notre Dame, yet the line has moved down 1.5 points...I think much of it is due to Notre Dame's offense being banged up...and don't trust SBR for betting percentages, go to sportsinsights.com...

wal66 · 09-23-09, 05:00 PM

Glad to see you're on Miami. I was a little concerned when I thought about the opening line but I think it has much more to do with Virginia Tech utter dominance over Miami in the recent years and the added bonus of their big (very fortunate) win last week against Nebraska. I really think many people are still thinking Mimai is overrated without really paying attention to what they are actually doing on the field. While they are young and as I have mentioned a couple of times do have some aggression issues in the secondary they are overall one of the most complete teams in the country.

Much success on your card this weekend.