Dapper Dan Picks 2019-'20 Thread

Smutbucket · 08-21-19, 01:24 PM

Week 1 College Football

Miami +7.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
Every year I get burned betting on my Hurricanes so you would think the odds are in my favor if I continue to bet them to finally hit one. UF has one of the least experienced offensive lines returning with only 24 total starts ranking 127th in college football. They will be facing off against a Miami defensive front that has been a FORCE to be reckoned with the last few years since Manny Diaz became the defensive coordinator - and he is now the head coach. Manny’s track record as DC at Miami speaks for itself. In team tackles for loss, Miami ranked 5th in ‘16, 4th in ‘17 and 1st last year. In defensive yards per play allowed, they ranked 16th in ‘16, 9th in ‘17, and 3rd last season. In Sack %, Miami ranked 29th in ‘16, 7th in ‘17, and 2nd last year. Manny knows how to coach defenses and put his players in position to create havoc in the offensive backfield and these un-tested UF gypsies will surely have their hands full. Two of Miami’s defensive linemen return and they bring in a few transfers from UCLA and Virginia Tech. Miami also returns 3 starting linebackers that have had significant playing time since 2016 being true freshman and are one of the most experienced groups in the nation. A new offensive coordinator in Dan Enos brings a whole new offensive system dubbed “spread coast” with a much needed new starting QB which can only be positive considering how bad Miami's offense and QB play was last year. Imagine their defensive numbers last year if their offense could put together a drive. UF returns the same coaching staff with Felipe Franks who is very unimpressive and was benched twice during last season for poor performance. He looks like he should be athletic but is terribly awkward and makes poor decisions under pressure type quarterback. Their offense only returns 4 other starters and I expect this to be a tight low scoring game as both defensive units are much stronger than their offensive counterparts. I was initially leaning the under which I think is a solid bet too. I will be at this game cheering on my team. Let's start off the season by breaking my Miami curse with an outright win in Orlando!

Utah/BYU Under 48.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Both of these teams are consistent defensive power houses whose defensive units were both inside the Top 20 last season of yards per play allowed. What makes me really like this play is the return of Andy Ludwig, offensive coordinator to Utah. He was paired up with Kyle Whittingham in 2005 at Utah and returns after spending 4 years at Vanderbilt. During his tenure at Vanderbilt his offense was consistently one of the slower moving offenses in the nation, ranking 108th in plays per game last year, and 120th in plays per game in ‘17. This is a big contrast from Troy Taylor who had taken over the offensive coordinator role two years ago at Utah and had implemented a much more uptempo offense - I don’t expect that to be the case this season and although Andy Ludwig had a successful offense in his 4th year at Vandy, it took a few years to develop and his offense ranked 121st in yards per play in his first season, and 108th in ypp in his 2nd year. Much of Utah's defense returns intact including the bulk of the contributors on the defensive line that were responsible for holding opponents to 3 yards per rush attempt - ranking 6th in the nation. On the other side of the ball, you also have a BYU offense that typically runs at a leisurely pace under second-year offensive coordinator, Jeff Grimes. Last year in his first year, BYU ranked 102nd in plays per game and their offense ranked 70th in yards per play. Both teams and coaching staffs are very familiar with each other and this is a big rivalry game AKA THE HOLY WAR. I expect both coaches to play conservatively and as long as we don’t have any defensive TD’s I think we stay under the 48.5 number.

Smutbucket · 08-27-19, 03:17 PM

Week 1 Additions. (may have a few more added Friday night/Sat. Morning but this is the bulk of the good stuff)

Virginia ML (-132) Risking 2.64 units to win 2 units

I tend to have one two unit bet per week but not all weeks - this is my fav bet this week and I love this Cavalier team returning this season. Bronco has turned this football program around after struggling his first season (which happens with most coaches) and I expect the winning trend to continue to rise in his 4th year. He has a knack for scouting and recruiting elite dual-threat QB talent like Taysom Hill at BYU and Bryce Perkins here at UVA who will be returning to start his senior year. Three of their five starting linemen also return that ranked 13th last year in adjusted line yards, 2nd in power success rate, and 12th in stuff rating. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh lost all of its starters from last year on its offensive line except its center. Pitt will also have a new play-caller in Mark Whipple. Mark Whipple has had various coaching jobs in the FCS and low-level FBS teams but hasn't found any success what-so ever in the last 15 years in coaching. His latest gig was head coach at UMass 16-44 record from ‘14-’18. Despite Narduzzi being a run-first head coach, Whipple is a throw-first type play-caller which could cause some friction. Virginia’s strength is its secondary with returning senior cornerback Bryce Hall who led the league last year in deflected passes. 48% of all incompletions thrown last year against the Cavalier defense was due to either a deflected pass or interception. Their defense returns mostly in-tact with 71% of all tackles and 3 of their 4 starting linebackers. They were extremely well-rounded with their defensive line controlling the run game and their secondary defending the pass and applying pressure. Their defensive line havoc rate was 126th in the nation but their overall havoc rate was 17th due to their linebacker havoc rate ranking 16th and their defensive back havoc rate ranked 2nd. At the same time they applied pressure they defended the run well - ranking 34th in rushing S&P ratings. This is all in defensive strategy and execution and it seems like not only Bronco gets it but his players understand what they are doing out there as a team. Looking forward to watching this one.

Rutgers -15.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

Despite only winning one game last season I like our odds to win this one by two touchdowns plus in this matchup. Rutgers was very young last season, dealt with many suspensions, and started a true freshman QB who made a lot of mistakes. This year 70% of their offensive yard production returns with 8 starters and Stikowski regains his starting role that he lost at the end of the season. They should be a much more cohesive unit in the 2nd year with OC John McNulty - who has had various assistant jobs and the only other time he was offensive coordinator was in ‘07-’08 at Rutgers where his offense ranked 11th in ypp in ‘17 and 18th in ‘18 in ypp. There is also strong evidence to support that this UMass team will be in disarray. Not only are they one of the least experienced teams returning with 8 total starters, 25% of their offensive yards, and 45% of their defensive tackles, but they have a completely new coaching staff with barely any experience and a poor track record. Walt Bell is the new head coach and offensive coordinator who somehow got promoted after 3 years of poor performance as an OC at Maryland and FSU. Last year at FSU his offense ranked 109th in ypp. In ‘17 he ranked 120th in ypp at Maryland and ranked 91st in ‘16. His defensive coordinators are even less experienced than he is. Chris Ash is definitely on the hot seat and you could see potential in his defense last year. I think they will come out firing this game and look to blow out this inexperienced and hopefully under-prepared UMass team.

Purdue Team Total Under 33.5 (+121) Risking 1 unit to win 1.21 units

Both these teams come back very inexperienced with Purdue ranking 125th on PS's experience chart. Sindelair takes back the starting role who single handedly blew the Northwestern game in the first game of the year last year for Purdue (lost my bet!) and played a bit in the 2nd game before being benched and Blough officially took over. Back in 2017 when Sindelair started almost every game Purdue’s offense wasn’t as good averaging 25 points per game. He will have to figure out a way to direct this new offense against a much improved Nevada defense. Last year, Nevada ranked 15th in rushing defense S&P and 39th in yards per play allowed. Jeff Casteel defensive coordinator enters his 3rd year after a dramatic improvement last season. Although he struggled as defensive coordinator at Arizona with Rich Rodriguez his defense was consistently in the Top 25 when they were together at West Virginia. Nevada’s offense will be very green too so I expect both teams to play conservatively. Purdue’s defense should improve too after a horrible season last year that led to many high scoring affairs. With my bookie I was able to get at 34 (-110) but I ‘ll take the half a point for .31 cents at a seemingly dead number (probably will bust 33.5 now)

Boston College +4.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

It’s just too hard for me to believe that this Virginia Tech defense will have that much of a turn-around due to experience this year. I am reading a lot of articles about how they were so young last year and how great their defense should be this year after being horrendous last year. Since almost the entire defense returns, lets go over how awful their numbers were - ranked 116th in yards per play allowed, ranked 127th in passes deflected to incompletion ratio, 95th in overall havoc rate, 113th in rushing S&P, 82nd in passing S&P, and 74th in sack rate. Granted they may improve but I doubt they will be inside the top half of the league. They gave up a TON of big plays and not just through the air with blown coverages but on the ground as well from poor tackling. Their offense has also continued to struggle and last years Josh Jackson who was their starting QB at the beginning of the season but broke his leg transferred to Maryland leaving Ryan Willis to return as the starter. He had a notably poor career at Kansas before coming to Vtech where he compiled 12 TDs and 17 INTs over two seasons. What I like most about Boston College changes during the offseason is finally losing Scott Loeffler as their offensive coordinator. He is one of the most bland play-callers ever and Boston College’s offense continually suffered under his direction ranked 128th in his first year in yards per play, and then 99th in the last two years. New OC Mike Bajakian has had a long career in the NFL and NCAAF as an OC and should be able to make many improvements with Anthony Brown and AJ Dillion back. A lot of question marks on the Boston College defense with losing so many to the NFL but Addazio, Jim Reid, and Bill Sheridan know how to coach defenses. Last year, Virginia Tech was up 14-7 in this matchup before half and Addazio made his adjustments and they came back and outscored tech 24-7 in the 2nd half. Justin Fuente struggled making adjustments all year last year as his team scored was outscored 140 to 233 points in the 2nd half. Fuente may have turned around an AAC program but power five conferences are another animal. This is just too many points at home as I think this will be a close back and forth game.

Smutbucket · 08-30-19, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

Week 1 College Football

Utah/BYU Under 48.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Both of these teams are consistent defensive power houses whose defensive units were both inside the Top 20 last season of yards per play allowed. What makes me really like this play is the return of Andy Ludwig, offensive coordinator to Utah. He was paired up with Kyle Whittingham in 2005 at Utah and returns after spending 4 years at Vanderbilt. During his tenure at Vanderbilt his offense was consistently one of the slower moving offenses in the nation, ranking 108th in plays per game last year, and 120th in plays per game in ‘17. This is a big contrast from Troy Taylor who had taken over the offensive coordinator role two years ago at Utah and had implemented a much more uptempo offense - I don’t expect that to be the case this season and although Andy Ludwig had a successful offense in his 4th year at Vandy, it took a few years to develop and his offense ranked 121st in yards per play in his first season, and 108th in ypp in his 2nd year. Much of Utah's defense returns intact including the bulk of the contributors on the defensive line that were responsible for holding opponents to 3 yards per rush attempt - ranking 6th in the nation. On the other side of the ball, you also have a BYU offense that typically runs at a leisurely pace under second-year offensive coordinator, Jeff Grimes. Last year in his first year, BYU ranked 102nd in plays per game and their offense ranked 70th in yards per play. Both teams and coaching staffs are very familiar with each other and this is a big rivalry game AKA THE HOLY WAR. I expect both coaches to play conservatively and as long as we don’t have any defensive TD’s I think we stay under the 48.5 number.

Smutbucket · 08-31-19, 08:09 AM

4-0 Start.

Two more additions for the first week!

Week 1 Adds:
Final Additions!

Ole Miss +4.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
One of my favorite offensive coordinators returns to college ball at Ole Miss, Rich Rodriguez. He will be breaking in a new offense as most of ole miss offensive starters depart. He has red shirt freshman Matt Corral who is a dual threat QB needed in Rich Rodriguez’s run-based spread option offense. Michigan struggled in its first two seasons with Rich Rod because they didn't have a QB that could run until their 2010 season when they recruited a young Denard Robinson but Rich Rodriguez was fired after the ‘10 season. Matt Luke also has a new defensive coordinator for Ole Miss in Mike MacIntyre who has had a very long career in various coaching positions. At his first gig as a head coach, MacIntryre turned around a San Jose State program going 1-12 in his first season and finishing 10-2 in his 3rd season before departing for Colorado. At Colorado he struggled and had success in his 4th year but regressed in his 5th and 6 seasons. This is the first year he returns to being a DC after a while of head coaching. He will be implementing a new 3-4 scheme that will hopefully fix Ole Miss’s defensive struggles last season. Memphis returns more than half of it’s starters on both sides of the ball but loses his top two running backs. Per usual, with AAC teams playing power-five teams we also have a huge differential in the strength of schedule (SOS) sagarin ratings from last season with Ole Miss ranked 39th in sagarin last year and Memphis 103rd. Memphis (like all AAC teams) have struggled against real competition and have gone (1-7) in the last 10 years vs the SEC. They did beat Ole Miss once in 2015 but have been smashed by them pretty regularly in their other match-ups including a 28-48 loss in 2016.

Boise State +7 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Hopefully my Miami bias is not playing a part in this pick but I just don’t see FSU covering 7 or even winning for that matter. The pundits and public agree that Boise State should struggle losing 4 year starting QB Brett Rypien but there are many positives to look at with this returning team. Their entire starting line returns including their TE and will be one of the most experienced in college football. They struggled early last season but finished the year strong ranking 57th in adjusted line yards, 9th in power success rate, and 18th in havoc rate allowed. 8 of their 11 starters on defense return a very strong unit that should give FSU some fits. FSU offense was in shambles last season so Willie Taggart got rid of Walt Bell in hopes to save his job. Taggart is another one of these coaches that had a brief turn-around at two smaller conference school yet hasn't had any success in the power 5 yet enjoying the limelight. Amazed how he was able to secure the Oregon job and then leapfrog to FSU where last year was his disappointing first year. Although Boise’s sagarin SOS rankings are well below FSU’s since they play in the Mountain west - Boise was 2-1 vs Top 30 teams last year while FSU was 0-5 vs Top 30 competition.

Hman · 08-31-19, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

4-0 Start.

Two more additions for the first week!

Week 1 Adds:
Final Additions!

Ole Miss +4.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
One of my favorite offensive coordinators returns to college ball at Ole Miss, Rich Rodriguez. He will be breaking in a new offense as most of ole miss offensive starters depart. He has red shirt freshman Matt Corral who is a dual threat QB needed in Rich Rodriguez’s run-based spread option offense. Michigan struggled in its first two seasons with Rich Rod because they didn't have a QB that could run until their 2010 season when they recruited a young Denard Robinson but Rich Rodriguez was fired after the ‘10 season. Matt Luke also has a new defensive coordinator for Ole Miss in Mike MacIntyre who has had a very long career in various coaching positions. At his first gig as a head coach, MacIntryre turned around a San Jose State program going 1-12 in his first season and finishing 10-2 in his 3rd season before departing for Colorado. At Colorado he struggled and had success in his 4th year but regressed in his 5th and 6 seasons. This is the first year he returns to being a DC after a while of head coaching. He will be implementing a new 3-4 scheme that will hopefully fix Ole Miss’s defensive struggles last season. Memphis returns more than half of it’s starters on both sides of the ball but loses his top two running backs. Per usual, with AAC teams playing power-five teams we also have a huge differential in the strength of schedule (SOS) sagarin ratings from last season with Ole Miss ranked 39th in sagarin last year and Memphis 103rd. Memphis (like all AAC teams) have struggled against real competition and have gone (1-7) in the last 10 years vs the SEC. They did beat Ole Miss once in 2015 but have been smashed by them pretty regularly in their other match-ups including a 28-48 loss in 2016.

Boise State +7 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Hopefully my Miami bias is not playing a part in this pick but I just don’t see FSU covering 7 or even winning for that matter. The pundits and public agree that Boise State should struggle losing 4 year starting QB Brett Rypien but there are many positives to look at with this returning team. Their entire starting line returns including their TE and will be one of the most experienced in college football. They struggled early last season but finished the year strong ranking 57th in adjusted line yards, 9th in power success rate, and 18th in havoc rate allowed. 8 of their 11 starters on defense return a very strong unit that should give FSU some fits. FSU offense was in shambles last season so Willie Taggart got rid of Walt Bell in hopes to save his job. Taggart is another one of these coaches that had a brief turn-around at two smaller conference school yet hasn't had any success in the power 5 yet enjoying the limelight. Amazed how he was able to secure the Oregon job and then leapfrog to FSU where last year was his disappointing first year. Although Boise’s sagarin SOS rankings are well below FSU’s since they play in the Mountain west - Boise was 2-1 vs Top 30 teams last year while FSU was 0-5 vs Top 30 competition.

Nice work

GL today

Smutbucket · 09-01-19, 07:36 AM

Week 1 : 7-1 (+7.14 units)

Scratch the whole post-write up thing every week - its just too much work. I keep notes of every game on my own but translating that into coherent sentences for you all is a waste of time upon further thinking

My one loss was by .5 a point and was because Matt Corral is freaking horrid

Hman · 09-01-19, 08:20 AM

Nice work

Smutbucket · 09-05-19, 08:15 AM

Week 2:
Pittsburgh -5 (-109)
UAB/Akron Under 48.5 (-109)
Arkansas +7 (-108)
Arkansas ML (+218) .5x
Nebraska -3 (-112)
California +14 (-112)
Vanderbilt +7.5 (-118)
Texas A&M +17.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh -5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Despite getting beat last week by Virginia, I liked what I saw from them. Pickett is a great QB that is very elusive and can throw the deep ball accurately. Last week’s score could have been much closer if his receivers didn't drop so many wide open passes. In true Narduzzi fashion, Pittsburgh's defense was able to get pressure on Virgina accumulating 7 TFL, 6 hurries, and 3 sacks last week against a very mobile Bryce Perkins and I think that should cause problems for this Ohio offense who is replacing 3 all conference offensive linemen. Although Ohio’s offense had a bit of a break-out season the last two years - there is reason to believe they should regress to the mean this year. Frank Solich and Tim Albin have the head coach/offensive coordinator combo at Ohio university since ‘05. Up until their ‘17 season, their offense was consistently bad and had an average ranking of 67th in yards per play with only one outlier successful year where they ranked 24th in ypp in ‘11. It won’t help that they lost 7 starters on offense last year that accounted for 52% of their yards. The bobcats two-deep will boast zero backs who rushed at least 20 times last year and only two wideouts who caught more than 3 passes last season. I don’t see how they can keep up with this Pitt offense that should put up a lot more points against a much easier defensive unit this week. Pittsburgh wins big.

UAB/Akron Under 48.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
We have two horrible offenses squaring off in a game you probably shouldn’t watch. Last week Akron averaged 2.91 yards per play and 1.68 yards per rush against the defensive powerhouse that is illinois (last year ranked 115th in defensive s&p). Expect more of the same when they face off against this UAB team that had a surprising turnaround on defense last season and ranked 17th in ypp allowed and 45th in defensive S&P. David Reeves their defensive coordinator, won the Broyles award last year for his efforts and he returns for his 3rd year. UAB’s offense should be stifled as well as only 3 starters return, accounting for 45% of their offensive yardage last season. Last week they struggled to move the ball against FCS school Alabama State. Their offense only scored 17 points, scored 0 in the 2nd half, and averaged 4.39 yards per play. Akron should struggle all year on offense and defense as they have the lowest rated coaching staff in my rankings. Tom Arth and Matt Feeney both have less than 10 years coaching experience and half of those years were at John Carrol D3 school. Not sure how they got the gig at Akron but they are taking over a team that scored 18.9 ppg last season, which I expect to drop this season. Hopefully we don’t have too many ugly miscues that lead to points but I think this one stays well under the total.

Arkansas +7 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Arkansas ML (+218) Risking .5 units to win 1.09 units
I think this Arkansas team has some real potential for a major break-out year just based off of their coaching staff - which I have one of the highest rated in the league. Chad Morris and Jon Chavis both return for their 2nd year after struggling their first year in the program. Jon Chavis is one of my few rated “A” defensive coordinators, has had a great career in the SEC, coaching elite defenses at Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M (ok so he struggled at A&M). Chad Morris is not a well-known name but should be as he is statistical mastermind and is one of the founding fathers of the modern RPO. He first installed his RPOs at the high school level and dominated for a long time (from ‘94-’09). During that span he compiled a record of 169-38. He then installed it at Tulsa for one year in 2010 where he improved an offense that ranked 70th in ypp to 17th in his first year. He then was noticed by Dabo and was hired for 4 years at Clemson where they had one of the top rated offenses (until his final year). To this day Dabo’s offense still runs an evolved version of Chad Morris’s RPO - like much of college football and even the NFL. There were a few innovative coaches in the 90’s that begin using and Chad Morris was one of the few most well known for doing so. In ‘15, Morris was hired as head coach at SMU and helped turn around the SMU football program that was 1-11 before his arrival and in 3 years he went 7-5 and had broken many records with his offense in his final year in ‘17 which ranked 19th in ypp. A huge offensive turn-around from a team that ranked 127th in ypp in the year before he arrived. Interestingly, Ben Hicks, transferred from SMU, who had started 2 years under Chad Morris at SMU so they should have a significantly improved offense as Ben is very familiar with the system. On the other side of the ball I got to watch Ole Miss play last week and as exciting as their coaching changes were there should be a lot of concern with their qb play. Matt Corrall barely had an accurate pass and looked way too amped and out of sync with his receivers. They relied on the run game to put up 10 points on Memphis in their 15-10 loss in week 1 (which ruined my perfect day by a .5 point due to a freaking safety in last 10 min of game). Good coordinators defend one dimensional offenses very well and until Corral proves he can throw the long ball accurately I think Chavis will contain the run. Jump on 7 points now as I don’t think this line will get any better but who knows and there’s a good chance we win this game outright. (well worth 2 to 1 odds)

Nebraska -3 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Nebraska struggled a bit last week but they did the same thing early last season dropping their first 6 games. Unlike Colorado though, they actually had a tough schedule ranking 23rd in sagarin ratings and is significantly harder than Colorado’s soft Pac 12 schedule. Scott Frost enters his 2nd year at Nebraska after having one of the most notable successful 2 year program turnarounds at my alma mater, UCF. In case you weren’t aware he took a UCF team that went 0-12 in ‘15 before he arrived and had them in his 2nd year going 13-0. I don’t have that much historical reference for these program turn-arounds but I could imagine it is one of the best in history. He has very capable weapons returning including QB, Adrian Martinez who was hampered by injuries last season after the 1st game. Despite going 4-7, their advanced statistics were all very impressive ranking in the Top 20 on offense in efficiency and explosiveness. Their biggest downfall was their special teams that ranked 80th in special teams S&P. They were constantly struggling in the field position battle every game with their offense ranking 123rd and their defense ranking 105th in starting field position. On the other side of the ball we have a whole new coaching staff that comes in after Colorado had back to back 5-7 seasons. Last year they came out hot winning their first 5 but then fell off and lost their remaining 7 games. This will be a challenge for first time college head coach Mel Tucker (he was head coach in NFL). He has a track record of having strong defenses that he has coordinated for including the last 3 years at UGA but those were strong defensive programs that he took over for - that won’t be the case in Colorado. I have his offensive coordinators Jay Johnson ranked a C rating as he has not been very successful at any of his smaller programs he has led. No reason why Nebraska doesn’t win this game by more than 3 points - lock it in early while you can.

California +14 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Very surprised we are getting this many points with the more experienced team and a program that has turned into a defensive powerhouse thanks to Justin Wilcox. Most recreational gamblers remember California as the prototypical west-coast Pac 12 team that was all offense and no defense, but this has since changed in the last 2 years (now if only they can get their offense going again). In ‘16 before Wilcox arrived, California’s defense was ranked 120th in yards per play allowed. In Wilcox’s first year he made the dramatic improvement and had his team ranked 63rd in ypp allowed. Last year, another extreme improvement as they surprisingly ranked 8th in the nation in ypp allowed. There is no reason to believe they won’t continue this trend under Justin Wilcox who has an extensive track record of leading elite defenses and has been all around the league. They were one of the best at containing the big play that is all too common in the Pac 12, ranking 7th in IsoPPP and 15th in big play rate allowed. They were able to get pressure with a havoc rank of 44th and defended passes extremely well ranking 8th in passes deflected to incompletion rate. This will be a tall order for Washington's offense who loses 54% of it’s yard production with starting QB Jake Browning and Miles Gaskin gone - both were staples of this successful offense for years. In steps Jacob Eason at QB who we have seen before in the SEC. Eason has a great arm and can throw the deep ball great but unlike Browning, he has no ability to improvise under pressure. He is not very mobile and scares very easily after getting hit - at least at UGA. Washington’s defense is an even bigger question mark as only 37% of their returning tackles are accounted for. Take the points and sit back as I think we cover this one easily in what should be a close game.

Vanderbilt +7.5 (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units
I already talked about the struggles that this Purdue team should endure this year in my week 1 write-up of Purdue's team total under that hit. I think Vanderbilt is being a little under-valued here after being smashed by UGA but after watching the game - it wasn’t as bad as the score suggested and I think it was more indicative of how good this UGA team is this year. At QB Vanderbilt has a very experienced Riley Neal who transferred over from Ball State. He has a 60% completion percentage with almost 7500 passing yards and 46 TDs with 25 INTs in his career. At their skill positions, Vanderbilt returns all of its starters including stud running back Ke’Shawn Vaugn who accounted for 1244 yards last season on only 157 carries (7.9 yards per carry) and who only started getting the bulk of the carries halfway through last season. I haven't seen anyone run harder or more aggressively than Vaughn and I think he’s a dark horse Heinemann candidate. Their biggest unknown is their offensive line as it will be very inexperienced but all the other tools are there. On defense they have Jason Tarver returning to coordinating duties for his 2nd year. He has had an extensive career at the NFL level and let’s see if he can make improvements to this unit that struggled last year in his first year. I don’t see how Purdue’s defense contains this Vanderbilt offense and it’s going to come down to a one possession game so I'm very confident taking the points in this one. I almost made it a 2 unit bet this week but decided to only do one unit.

Texas A&M +17.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Amazed at how many points we’re getting again this year in this matchup. Last year they were only 12 point underdogs and only lost by two. It’s a bit of a head scratcher and the inner conspiracy theorist in us all is screaming “trap….trap!” at this line but I think it’s just a indication of the heavily supported markets that follow Clemson and Alabama. Clemson and Alabama are the most talked about teams and are heavily anticipated to return to the national title games again so in all of their games they are most likely to be over-valued. This is just too many points against one of my favorite coaches (that I hate so much) Jimbo Fisher. Jimbo is the master of second half adjustments and although I don’t have the exact ATS trend data to support it I know he’s one of the best coaches in 2nd half ATS (maybe someone can look up for me - does anyone have this type of splits for coaches ATS? - it used to be offered by coachesbythenumbers.com many years ago but they have since privatized their valuable data). His great defensive coordinator hire Mike Elko returns for his 2nd year. His defenses are notoriously aggressive and creating havoc as last year they were ranked 5th in overall havoc rank. Only 4 starters return on defense but it’s a good thing as the unit struggled last season. Clemson may take a big early lead but I don’t see how Jimbo’s second half adjustment don’t at least get us a backdoor cover.

Smutbucket · 09-06-19, 08:38 AM

Week 2 Add:

Minnesota -3 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
We’ve all seen the highlights of how Minnesota barely hung on against FCS school South Dakota State in Week 1. Most people hear FCS school and think it should be an easy win but this South Dakota State team is one of the best in FCS having gone to the FCS semifinals the last two years straight. Also in the public eye is Fresno State's close game with USC last week giving us some value in this game. Both teams looked awful as USC starting QB got injured just before half-time and a freshman backup Slovis came in. Jorge Reyna new starting senior QB for Fresno State looked pretty horrible on his own and caused 3 turnovers in the first game. You can usually predict a senior QB who has never started before to be quite bad - especially at a small school like Fresno State. Although Minnesota’s defense took a big step back last season, ranking 82nd in yards per play allowed and allowing 26.5 points per game - they quietly finished the season very nicely under a new defensive coordinator. After Illinois blew out Minnesota 55-31 last November, Minnesota fired then defensive coordinator Robb Smith and promoted Joesph Rossi in house. He closed out the last 4 games remarkably well against some good competition. He held Purdue, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Georgia Tech to an average of 14.75 ppg and under 5 yards per play. They won 3 of those 4 games and Rossi solidified his role from his interim status. Another strong criterion leveraging in our favor in this matchup is the discrepancy in SOS rankings between these two teams. Although Fresno State went 12-2 last season their SOS FO ranking is 91st while Minnesota went 7-6 but ranked 35th in their SOS rankings. Last year when these two teams faced off, Minnesota won by 7 points and there’s no reason to believe that won’t happen again this season as all signs point to an improved Minnesota team and regression for Fresno State.

billyloco · 09-07-19, 09:08 AM

I think your write ups are very enlightening and I'm hoping to profit using some of them.

Hman · 09-07-19, 09:25 AM

GL with your action

Smutbucket · 09-07-19, 09:39 AM

Thanks Fellas. I wouldn't follow anyone without a reasonable write-up. Lots of weirdos out there on the internet

billyloco · 09-07-19, 01:46 PM

Looks like UAB is NOT caring bout our under!

Smutbucket · 09-07-19, 02:03 PM

Miscues. Was going to initially take uab but the more I looked into the more the under looked better 😔

Smutbucket · 09-13-19, 11:20 AM

Week 2 Results: 3-5 -1.97 units
Season YTD: 10-6 +5.17 units

Week 3 NCAAF:
NC State -7 (-119)
Air Force/Colorado Over 58.5 (-107)
Arkansas -10 (-104) 1.5x
Iowa State +2.5 (-111)
Duke -6.5 (-107)
Virginia -7.5 (-113)
Arizona +2 (-107)

NC State -7 (-119) Risking 1.19 units to win 1 units
West Virginia may have one of the worst offensive lines in the history of college football. Never have a seen a team combine for 64 yards in its first two games over 56 attempts and one of those opponents was an FCS team and the other a middle-tier SEC team. NC State defensive line has been dominant - currently ranking 1st holding opponents to 49 yards on 48 carries. Granted this was against an FCS opponent and ECU but none-the-less they have always been a strong unit year in and year out under Doeron/Huxatable who have been coaching together here at NC State since ‘13. We actually have a huge advantage on both sides of the ball at the line of scrimmage based on line yards, opportunity rates, and stuff rankings. NC State's offensive line outranks WVU’s defensive line by an average of 98 rankings, in each of those 3 categories. Nc State’s defensive line outranks WVU’s offensive line by an average of 108 rankings in each of those 3 categories. WVU offensive line, despite the easy first two games have one of the league’s worst havoc rate allowed - giving up 26% and ranking 128th. We should also win the turnover margin, as NC state has yet to produce a give-away this season and have averaged two take-aways per game. WVU on the other hand has had 0 take-aways in its first two games - and have given the ball up 3 times each game. Quite a large differential in ball security fundamentals. We also have a strong advantage at the kicker position as NC State’s kicker is 4 for 4 on the season while WVU is 2 for 4 - and they are subsequently are ranked 121st in special teams S+P ratings due to this and poor field positioning/kick coverage. NC State wins this one big. I locked in at -7 when line opened but it has since dropped to 6.5 so even better if you can get under a TD!

Air Force/Colorado Over 58.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Colorado has been putting up plenty of points the first two weeks and I was definitely surprised to see them come back from a 17-0 deficit last week to beat my husker bet. Their defense, that only returns 4 from last year though has been bad - they are currently ranked 117th in defensive S&P. Particularly bad has been their defensive line, who ranks 128th in line yards, 117th in opportunity rank, 56th in power ranking, and 125th in stuff rankings. This will be trouble against an Air Force team that likes to run the ball down your throat and returns 4 out of 5 starting linemen. This offensive line ranked 31st in line yards, 29th in opportunity rate, 42nd in power success rate, and 11th in stuff rating. They also return two QB’s who are battling to take the most snaps and were splitting time last year keeping them fresh. If one struggles, expect to see the other come in and bring life to the offense. Despite being a heavy run team, Air Force’s adjusted pace is ranked 25th. They get to the line quickly after each play and try to bombard you with the run game. This will be the first time each team has seen each other in a number of years so they will be unfamiliar with each other. Im sure Air Force will have a few tricks up its sleeve as they had a bye last week and Colorado showed a few last week against Nebraska. Air Force last season proved susceptible to the big play, ranking 118th in IsoPPP and 87th in big play rate allowed. Both defenses were also in the bottom 5% of passes deflected to incompletion rate with Air Force being worse ranking 116th in defensive passing efficiency. The strengths of this Colorado offense mismatches the weaknesses of this Air Force defense just like Air Force’s strengths of it’s offense mismatches the weaknesses of Colorado's defense. This one should sail over the total and hopefully will go into OT as it’s projected to be a close game.

Arkansas -10 (-104) Risking 1.56 units to win 1.5 units
We’re going back to the well here with Arkansas again for 1.5 units. Last week was quite a disappointing loss. The first half Ben Hicks was just out of sync with his receivers who had a few dropped passes. I was upset when Hicks was benched for Starkel but Starkel definitely looked like the better QB he just needs time to learn the system. Didn’t help that Matt Corral decided to show up - I suppose it was an overreaction on my part after seeing how shitty he was week 1. There are a lot of reasons to like them again this week. Surprisingly their defense is ranked 20th in defensive SP+ ratings while their offense is ranked 116th in offensive SP+. Although their offense has struggled, Starkel was named the new starter which should spark some life into this offense, especially against a Colorado State defense that is ranked 115th in defensive SP+. Colorado State's defensive line was one of the worst units in the nation last year and there’s no reason to suspect they won’t continue to struggle against these big SEC linemen. This is a revenge game that Colorado somehow pulled off a win last season somehow despite getting dominated at the line of scrimmage. Last year, it was the 2nd game of the year and Arkansas was still looking for it’s starting QB, Storey, the named started struggled early throwing two picks and backup Cole Kelley came in and didn't throw any more picks but limited their offense. Kelley was benched after the next game when he started and threw 4 picks. In last years matchup, Arkansas dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Arkansas ran for 299 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and held Colorado State to 40 rushing yards, averaging 1.74 ypc. Arkansas was eaten up through the air by KJ Carta Samuels who has since departed. Collin Hill is the new starter who came in at the end of last season and started the last 4 games which CSU lost all 4 if and he threw 5 TDs and 6 INT’s in those games. This is a revenge matchup and I see no reason why we don't win by 2 TD’s+.

Iowa State +2.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Despite struggling Week 1 against an FCS team, Northern Iowa - I love everything about this Iowa State team on paper. Their entire offensive and defensive line return fully in-tact a rare feat in today's college sports. Their defensive line was a more notably strong unit ranking 32nd in line yards, 35 in rushing defense S&P, and 33rd in sack rate. They were very disciplined - and did not give up big plays ranking 24th in IsoPPP and 28th in big play rate allowed. 4th year defensive coordinator Jon Heacok has that right strategy when his team gets pinned back in the red zone. Last year they ranked 2nd in 1st and Goal success rate and 5th in goal line success rate. Three of four starting linebackers also return which will most likely be the best LB group in the BIG 12 (ok that doesn't say much but had to throw that in there

). 8 of their 11 starters also return on offense including Brock Purdy who has flashes of greatness but needs to find consistency. On the experience chart, Iowa State ranks 16th as they have a lot of returning starters who are just itching to finally beat Iowa. Iowa on the other hand ranks 89th in experience chart as their defense is almost entirely gone from last season. Normally I don’t like to touch these rivalry pick em games but there are too many edges in Iowa States favor here- much more experienced (Iowa State ranked 16th in exp chart while Iowa ranked 88th), revenge game for Campbell as his led teams are 0-3 the last 3 years vs this Iowa team, coming off a bye for extra preparations, and the amount of talent lost in Iowa on defense this past season.

Duke -6.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
I expect Duke to win this game in the trenches - something that typically happens in these matchups where power 5 schools face off against Conference USA opponents. Duke’s offensive lineman all average right around 300 lbs which will be quite an advantage over MTSU’s defensive line that averages 260 lbs. MTSU’s offensive line is one of the least experienced in the country with only 38 total career starts before the season. They will be facing off against a strong defensive unit at Duke that returns almost it’s entire defense including all 4 starting linemen including two 300 lb tackles that are heavier than all but one of MTSU’s offensive linemen. 13 of Duke’s defensive linemen saw action last year so they will be an experienced unit and will jump at the chance to pound this conference USA opponent. Conference USA is undoubtedly weaker than the ACC having gone 1-5 in the last two seasons against ACC opponents (and so far this year conf USA is 0-2 vs ACC). MTSU also has to replace 4 year starting QB, and coaches son, Brent Stockstill who led the offense and broke all kinds of records at MTSU. We should expect a drop in offensive production especially with Asher O’Hara who struggled last year in the one game he came in for the injured Stockstill last year going 9 for 20 with 1 INT against FIU last season. Although we lose Daniel Jones we have Quentin Harris who has had significant playing time and chances to understand the system while playing for the injured Jones last season. He shouldn’t have a problem moving the ball against this MTSU defense whose current S&P ratings is 116th. I think they win this one easily by a TD by controlling the line of scrimmage.

Virginia -7.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
This was a bit of a no-brainer pick if you’ve been following along with my writeups. I’ve already talked about both of these teams so let me talk about the line and why I think we have value. I’m amazed at the bookies (and markets) and how slow they are to adjust to certain teams sometimes. Florida markets are definitely one of them. The big 3 Florida teams have a strong fan base (and betting markets) and they are typically overvalued, especially the last two years since they’ve been performing poorly. Since 2017, Miami FL is 11-17 ATS with a 39% win % and even worse FSU is 8-17 ATS with a 32% ATS win %. These markets are obviously taking time to adjust as long as large fan bases continue to wager on them - I think that is what we have with this line. When the line was first released they tried to juice FSU at +7.5 hoping to have some biters but the line never moved to 7 from what I saw (I was watching closely). I ended up locking in at my bookie at -7 buying the extra half point at (-120). Obviously if you can do that you should go ahead and do so but with pickmonitor Im comfortable with 7.5 at home.

Arizona +2 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
This is a rare pick where I don’t have a lot of numbers to support it - but early on in the season, numbers can only get you so far with new arrivals and departures. We have a nice coaching advantage according to my rankings. Sumlin, Mazzone, and Yates are entering their 3rd year together at Arizona and Yates and Sumlin go back even further at Texas A&M. They have one of the most dynamic QB’s returning in Khalil Tate for his senior year. He has always shown flashes of greatness but needs to work on his consistency and ball security. Hopefully in his senior season he will finally protect the ball more. In his 1st year he had Rich Rod as his OC which was a very different offense but this will now be his 3rd year in Mazzone’s offense. At Texas Tech, with the departure of Kliff Klingsbury we have an entire new coaching staff with Matt Wells as head coach, David Yost as OC and Kevin Patterson as DC. Matt Wells had a pretty good run as head coach at Utah State but inherited a good program from Gary Patterson. As much as I hate the BIG 12 they are still significantly better than the mountain west so this will be a big transition in conference for him and his staff. Yost came with him as OC from Utah State and runs a spread offense. He was at Missouri prior to Utah State for almost 12 years. He was always an assistant quarterbacks or receivers coach and when they finally turned the offensive coordinating reigns over to him in 2009 - the offense significantly regressed. In Yost’s final year as OC in 2012 they were ranked 113th in ypp - a big contrast from the ranking #6 in ypp in ‘08 before he took over the play-calling. Neither team plays defense so we’ll take the points at home in what most likely will be a shootout.

A Quant · 09-13-19, 12:47 PM

SB-- just asking-- not being a dick-- first, I am curious-- your Iowa State and Arizona picks----

Why take the 2 and hook? Why not just roll ML?

I ran the data and even started a thread about it--- in college football the odds of a game going off at 1.5/2/2.5 and landing on 2-- is less than .4%.

Odds are-- and I say this only for discussion-- you are leaving units on the table, win or lose...both Arizona and Iowa State going off at +110--- if you win both those game on the ML, you are leaving .20 on the table, and if you lose, by a FG, you left .18 on the table...

Anyway, just food for though.

thekoreanmang · 09-14-19, 08:21 AM

Thanks for the writeups. They're really good. Win or lose I can tell your analysis is on point. All you can do even if it doesn't go your way. Good luck today! I'm on the with you! The only one I'm not on is Arkansas. I bet the other way before I saw your writeup and I hate reversing picks or juicing out.

Smutbucket · 09-20-19, 10:29 AM

Thanks, A Quant for your input but I have a hard time believing those statistics of less than .4% since I see it quite often - especially in these rivalry games. I can recall several games where I lost by under 3 points in my 1000 publicly posted games - including last week.

Thanks KoreanMan - Ya I spend a lot of time looking into the coaches/stats/edges of each game so happy to share any nuggets I uncover.

Smutbucket · 09-20-19, 10:30 AM

Week 3 Results: 4-3 +1.11 units
Season YTD: 14-9 +6.28 units

Week 4
Utah -3.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
I expect this USC offense to struggle facing the toughest defense they have yet to face. I talked about Utah and their dominant defense in my week 1 write-up of the under where they dominated the game and I liked what I saw under new OC Andy Ludwig. At the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, Utah outranks USC’s linemen in every advanced FO category except Utah's power success rank on offense to USC’s defensive line. Utah’s offensive line has been great ranking 31st in line yards, 7th in opportunity rate, and have yet to give up a sack. This will cause issues for a USC defensive line that ranks 90th in line yards and 83rd in opportunity rate. Utah’s defensive line has been very dominant ranking 18th in line yards and outranking USC’s offensive line in every category. Utah’s defense is great at disguising coverages, sending pressure, and creating turnovers which will be a handful for freshman backup QB Slovis. USC is giving up an average of almost 3 give-aways a game ranking #111 in interception %. Utah has yet to have a give-away. Clay Helton has struggled as an underdog at USC he is 1-12 outright and 2-11 ATS as a dog. 11 of the 12 losses have come by double digits, 8 of the 12 losses came by at least 17 points. Avg margin of defeat in USC’s last 12 losses as a dog – 18.8 PPG. These two teams have also had a common opponent this season where Utah destroyed BYU by 18 points - USC lost last week to BYU by 7. I think we win this one by at least 4 points no problem.

Wisconsin -3 (-116) Risking 1.16 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin looks like one of the best teams in the nation right now having given up 0 points in its first two games and scoring a combined 110 points. They’ve had the same coaching unit together for a few years and have a lot of youth and talent in their program. Their defensive line is currently ranked 1st in line yards and have stuffed opponents at or behind the line of scrimmage 38% of the time - ranking 2nd in the nation. They are ranked 1st in yards per pass allowed and 4th in yards per rush allowed. Michigan on thep other hand has struggled especially last game against Army where they pulled off a win in overtime. Their offense continues to struggle under new OC John Gattis who has had little experience as an offensive coordinator. They are ranked 80th in yards per rush and 72nd in yards per pass despite two cupcake games to start the season. Their defense, seems a bit overrated this season as I have no clue what justifies their #1 ranking in SP+ since they lost so many starters last season and have given up 21 points to both Army and MTSU. We also have a strong advantage in discipline as Wisconsin is ranked #3rd in penalties per game only getting flagged 5 times in its first two games and Michigan is currently ranked 111th getting flagged 17 times in its first two games. Both teams are coming off a bye and Chryst has performed better after a bye going 3-3 ATS since ‘15 at Wisconsin where Harbaugh is 2-6 ATS at Michigan. Wisconsin has had this game circled as last year they got smashed by a much better Michigan team.

Auburn +4 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Gus Malzahn returns to play calling for the Auburn Tigers. In ‘13 was his first year as head coach for Auburn and he called the plays and caught everyone off guard ranking 9th in ypp and taking his team to the national championship. The following season, although they did not return to the title game, they improved their ypp and ranked 6th in the nation. In ‘15 having to replace most of the offense, it struggled ranking 79th in ypp under Malzahn’s play calling. In 2016 Malzahn gave up his play calling duties…..until now. This is a personal revenge game for him as he is familiar with Jimbo Fisher, the coach who beat him in the national title game back in 2013. On defense, Kevin Steele enters his 4th year as DC and he is one of my top rated defensive coordinators. Last year he was a Broyles finalist and he has had a long history at the collegiate level and is one of the few coaches who has coached under Saban, Dabo, and Les Miles. Auburn outranks Texas A&M on offense and defense in SP+ ratings with a much harder sagarin SOS rating. I’ll take this many points with the better coaching staff, more experienced team, and higher SP+ ratings.

Notre Dame +14.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points in a game which I'm assuming the bookies believe most of the general public still has a bad taste in its mouth from last years beat down by Clemson, but there is reason to believe this will be a competitive match. Georgia lost defensive coordinator Mel Tucker to Colorado, and they promoted Dan Lanning in house who has literally 0 coaching experience and it showed in last year’s bowl game where they got beat 28-21 to Texas. Notre Dame should have the stronger defensive unit (and getting this many points) under 2nd year DC, Clark Lea. After years of leading strong LB corps through various conferences he got his first DC job last year and improved an already dominant unit taking them from 25th ranking in ‘17 to 12th in ‘18 in ypp allowed. They have a lot of young talent and are currently ranked 1st in opponent completion percentage, 3rd in defensive passing efficiency, and have deflected 10 passes in its first two games. In order to win this one, we need Ian Book to bounce back and handle the pressure he is most likely going to face. Last year he struggled but gained valuable experience against Clemson and Pitt. I like his ability to move in the pocket better than Jake Fromm who is limited to his arm and won’t make you miss. Lets hope Notre Dame’s offensive line, who struggled last season, can return to it’s ‘17 form where it was one of the best units in the nation.

Renegades · 09-20-19, 11:12 AM

The utah/byu score was very misleading. Utah had two defensive td’s

cmatth1326 · 09-20-19, 06:27 PM

Ya because byu scores more for Utah than themselves the last few years. Either way, Defensively or Offensively, Utah finds ways to score.

Smutbucket · 09-21-19, 09:43 AM

Yes I was fully aware that Utah score two defensive TD's and don't really understand how that makes a score "Misleading" Their offense dominated but struggled in the RedZone and USC had 3 50 yard prayers thrown into double coverage after QB nearly avoided sack to pull off the lucky upset. 8 out of 10 times these two teams matchup in that spot the result would have been UTAH covereing IMO after watching but hey anything can happen. Probably would have been better off with SLOVIS as Fink didnt mind throwing toss-ups into double coverage unlike Slovis

Week 4 Adds:
Vanderbilt +24 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
I like our chances at home here to cover the big spread. The media is all over this LSU team and Joe Burrow but are they really that good? Let’s refresh the media’s memory of Burrow’s statistics last year: 17 TD’s, 5 INT’s and 57% completion %. There was a span of 4 games where he didn't throw a passing TD and had 4 INT’s. LSU’s offensive line struggled last season and hasn’t been that great this season considering their schedule. This is more of an eye-test and situational angle as Vanderbilt is currently at the bottom of almost every category due to the fact that they played only two tough opponents. They are currently ranked 5th in Sagarin SOS ratings while LSU is rated 105. LSU is probably not taking them seriously after getting pounded by UGA and Purdue. Against Purdue they had a few unfortunate breaks that led to big plays but besides that they defended pretty well. I also like the fact that Vanderbilt is 0-2 ATS, while LSU is 2-1 ATS, giving us some added value. Vanderbilt is coming off a bye and lets see what they have in store.

Miami -30.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
I fully expect Miami to curb stomp C. Michigan who is missing their starting QB and starting RB in this game. Even without the injuries I like Miami to win by 30+. We will have a huge mismatch at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I doubt C. Michigan will even get to 50 rushing yards and the final result will be similar to when Wisconsin beat them 61-0 in week 2. C. Michigan will be coming down to a Miami team that will be hungry for a big win. Miami had opportunities in both UNC and UF to win those games but ended up squandering both. Last week they took out their frustrations on Bethune-Cookman beating them 63-0. Look for them to do the same against a slightly stronger opponent in Central Michigan. Dan Enos will look to gain valuable experience for his young quarterback and open up the playbook. Diaz will smell the inexperience of C. Michigan’s ball handlers and dial up the pressure. Final score should be 48-7. Did I break my Miami curse week 1? We will find out this week.

California TT over 20.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Love this TT play this week. Sorry I intended to do a write-up this morning but got caught up in a long pickleball match and just getting home and do not have time before kickoff as I like to lock in well before kickoff time for my tailers. My apologies but I LOVE this pick.

Colorado +7.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 unts
I don’t normally like betting on the significantly weaker defensive team but in this situation I love this pick (almost did two units but decided against). This will be an interesting match-up as it’s strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness. Colorado’s strength is it’s offense ranking 14th in SP+ ratings facing off against Arizona State's defense that is ranked 8th in defensive SP+. Colorado’s weak defense, ranked 118th in defensive SP+ will have to find a way to stop this Sun Devil offense that is ranked 111th in offensive SP+. I think we have a bigger edge in these matchups then these ratings suggest and we can definitely keep this game within a TD. Colorado has had a much stronger SOS and I don’t put much weight on Arizona State “upsetting” a poor Michigan State, which they upset also last year wasn't that surprising. Last year after Arizona State upset MSU in the 2nd game of the year, they went on to lose 4 out of their next 5 games - including one to Colorado by 7. This year Colorado’s defense should be improved under Mel Tucker who has had a track record of strong defenses. Last week's loss was to an Air Force team that was able to run all over them - that should be the case in this match-up as Arizona State’s offensive line is much weaker ranking in the bottom 15% of almost every category in FO outsiders. Although Colorado defensive line hasn't been great the one area they have excelled at is getting pressure - ranking 22nd in sack rate. They should be able to get pressure on this Arizona State front that is ranked 112th in sack rate allowed. This is also a look ahead spot (and after a big upset) as Arizona State has 3 huge games following this matchup against California, Washington State and Utah - all top 25 teams.

Smutbucket · 09-23-19, 09:27 AM

Gotta stop betting MIAMI!

Week 4 Results: 5-3 +1.79 units

Season YTD: 19-12 +8.07 units

Smutbucket · 09-27-19, 10:46 AM

Week 4 Results: 5-3 +1.79 units
Season YTD: 19-12 +8.07 units

Week 5
Duke +2.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
I think there’s some value on this dog and we have the better team despite being beat by Virginia Tech the last 3 years. Our biggest advantage should be at the line of scrimmage where I have Duke outranking Virginia Tech on both sides of the ball in most categories. Duke’s defensive line has stopped it’s opponents at or behind the line of scrimmage 28% of the time, ranking 19th in the nation. Virginia Tech struggles with TFL allowed as they have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage 21% of the time (despite two weak opponents) ranking 101st in the nation. They have been dealing with injuries at OL and it’s showing as they are averaging 2.8 yards per carry - ranking #112th. Virginia Tech has had an easier SOS to date but their stats don’t reflect that. I think we have the better QB in Quinton Harris as he can pick up some yards with his legs and has seen some action over the years when Jones has been injured. He struggled against Alabama but this won’t be nearly the same defense. QB for Virginia Tech, Ryan Willis has looked horrible (as expected) and is throwing INT’s on 4% of his passes, ranking 105th in the nation. Duke has scored on 100% of it’s redzone opportunities and have held opponents to scoring on only 50% of their red zone opportunities ranking 2nd in the nation. We also have an advantage in special teams SP+ ratings as Duke is ranked 31st and Vtech is ranked 66th. Duke’s FG kicker has made all of his FG attempts and Virginia Tech’s kicker has only made 50%. Both teams are coming off a bye and David Cutliffe is 13-5-1 ATS after a bye since arriving at Duke and Fuente is 2-3 ATS after a bye since arriving at Virginia Tech. I think the wrong team is favored here and Duke will be especially ready as last year they were 4-0 and were ranked in the TOP 25 when they were beat by Virginia Tech so they will look to have their revenge.

Penn State/Maryland Under 61.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
I rarely play totals as I feel like they are slightly more difficult to predict than a side but I love this one. First off it’s contrarian as the media seems to be raging over college football overs right now with multiple pundits suggesting you to be a mad-man if you considered betting an under right now in college football but let's look at the real world betting trends. According to TeamRankings.com, all FBS teams this year are hitting unders at a 52% rate. Last year they hit at a perfect 50% (respect) and in 2017 they hit at a 53% rate. Sure we run the risk of the dreaded OT in college ball but considering this matchup hasn't been close in 3 years, I like our chances. Penn State, who has dominated over the last 3 years, will be on the road in a hostile environment benefiting our chances of an under if their offense struggles with communication. Both defensive lines have been dominant and both offenses will surely be facing their toughest defenses to date. Both defensive lines outrank their offensive counterparts by an average of over 50 ranks. Both defensive lines are ranked in the top 10 in adjusted line yards and despite the strong run games their offensive lines are in the bottom 40% as much of their rushing yardage were big plays down field against soft opponents.These teams have been running up the scores on their much inferior opponents to date giving us extra value. Offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne will need to find a way to improve in his 2nd year after significantly dropping in his first year as the offense scored 41.1 points per game in 2017 but dropped to 33.8 in 2018 in his first year. It was his first year ever as an OC and I expect that number to drop even more with the loss of McSorley and only returning 6 starters. James Franklin’s defenses are typically dominant even though they regressed last season - I expect them to improve this year to his norm. Maryland’s new head coach, Mike Locksley, I have rated as a D offensive coordinator despite last year running an excellent Alabama offense which I think was more of the system in place and the tools he had to work with. Locksley has never been that successful anywhere else and has a head coaching record of 3-31 prior to coming to Maryland. I love this play situationally and statistically and it would probably be a 2unit play but I don’t trust totals.

Smutbucket · 09-28-19, 10:08 AM

Last night: 2-0 + 2 units
Season YTD: 21-12 +10.07 units

Week 5 adds: Might have a late game added later.
Toledo ML (+114) Risking 1 unit to win 1.14 units
I think Toledo matches up real well against BYU and I like the underdog at home. Toledo is returning a lot of starters and the entire coaching staff for it’s 4th year. They are currently rushing for 7.3 yards per carry in their first four games and BYU has struggled to defend the run. BYU is ranked 92 in yards per rush allowed, 113th in line yards, 120th in opportunity rate, and 94th in stuff rating. Toledo’s offensive line should take advantage considering they are ranked 5th in line yards, 14th in opportunity rate, and 3rd in stuff rating. BYU has struggled to run the ball, depending on the pass and only rushing for 3.4 yards per rush in their first four games. I think BYU is being over-valued here as they had a few big public “upset” wins this season and were 9-4 last year ATS. When these two coaches last faced off in 2016, Toledo lost by two points after BYU mustered up a late game winning FG. Toledo out-gained BYU by over 100 yards but lost due to turnovers. Toledo didn't have an answer for Jamal Williams who ran for almost 300 yards. During that season, BYU averaged 200 yards per game - quite a contrast from this season’s BYU who is only averaging 100 rushing yards per game. Despite having a much weaker schedule to date, I like our chances to win at home.

Arkansas +23 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Last year in this matchup, Texas A&M came out to a fast start returning the opening touchdown against Arkansas but still only winning the game by 7. Starkel looks to make Jimbo Fisher pay for benching him in favor of Mond and I think Starkel is the better QB. Mond is more prone to mistakes and is a better runner but Jimbo wants him to be a pocket passer. Surprisingly, despite being 23 point favorites, Texas AM is outranked in almost all offensive/defensive line categories by Arkansas. Granted it was against an easier schedule but rarely do you see such a big dog with the actual advantage at the LOS on both sides of the ball. I also really like the face that Arkansas is 1-3 ATS and Texas AM is 3-1 ATS, giving us extra value. I already talked a lot about these teams/coaches so we’ll keep this one short.

Virginia +11 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Were betting my favorite team again here this week as we are getting way too many points. UVA struggled a bit last week with ODU and Notre Dame kept it competitive with UGA giving us some value in this matchup. Notre Dame showed last year that they struggled with pressure and UVA is one of the best in the country at bringing it ranking 5th in sack ratings where UGA is only r7anked 52nd. UVA’s defensive line is also ranked in the top 20 of all the important categories and heavily outrank Notre Dame’s mediocre offensive line that is ranked 58th in line yards, 64th in opportunity rate, 127th in power rating and 59th in stuff rating. UVA has only allowed 2.3 yards per rush this season and Notre Dame has allowed 5.1, ranking 101st. Notre Dame will also most likely be missing it’s leading LB tackler, Jeremiah Owusu-Kormoah who is experiencing concussion like symptoms. UVA has been good at playing possession football this season ranking 27th in TOP% while Notre Dame hasn’t ranking #110th. Although these two teams have only faced off in ‘15 before Bronco arrived at UVA - Bronco did face off against Kelly at BYU twice where he lost two close games, one by 1 and one by 10.

Iowa State -3 (+101) Risking 2 units to win 2.02 units
A little surprised Baylor is getting this much respect after blowing out two cupcake teams and struggling with Rice. Rice contained them to 3.5 yards per rush and there’s no reason to believe Iowa State won’t do the same and dominate the line of scrimmage. Iowa State’s defensive line is ranked in the top 25 in line yards, opportunity rank, and stuff rankings. Baylor’s offensive line in contrast is ranked 80th or below in those respective categories. Baylor’s defensive line ranks in the top 20 of all defensive line categories but it’s been against the 215th ranked SOS Sagarin rankings (Sagarin includes FCS schools). They will face their toughest offensive line to date BY FAR as Iowa State in ranked #1 in power success rate and 26th in line yards. Brocky Purdy has been extremely efficient completing over 73% of his passes. Iowa State has scored on 100% of it’s redzone opportunities and Baylor has scored in a league worst- 50% of all red zone opportunities (against cupcakes). Iowa State is also one of the most disciplined teams, ranking in the top 10 of penalty yards per play, penalties yards per game, and overall penalties. I LOVE this play hence the 2 units. At my bookie I bought it down to -2.5 but Im comfortable with 3 at pickmonitor since you can’t yet buy points.

Wake Forest ML (-213) Risking 2.13 units to win 1 units
Oddly enough, since these two head coaches have faced off the away team has always won the last 5 years with Wake Forest covering 3 out of the last 5. Last year Wake Forest lost by 7 but they are favored this season by 7 because they are a much better team. Jamie Newman looks great in his 2nd year and he should have a field day against this Boston College defense that has struggled this season ranking 103rd in defensive SP+ and ranking in the bottom 20% of almost all defensive passing categories. Wake Forest’s strength on offense is it’s passing game which is the weakness of Boston College. Wake Forest’s strength on defense is the run defense which is the strength of the Boston College team. Boston College has also struggled in special teams ranking 108th in the league. If the game ends up being close I like our odds in the kicking game as Wake has made 100% of its field goals while Boston College has only made 50%. Wake Forest is also very well disciplined as they are ranked 3rd in penalties per play, penalties per game and penalty yards per game. Wake should win this one easily but if a couple bad breaks go against us we should be able to hit the ML no problem - hence the big line by the bookies.

Cincinnati -4 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
No write-up sorry busy week at work

Smutbucket · 10-03-19, 12:32 PM

Week 5 Results: 6-2 +3.01 units
Season YTD: 25-14 +11.08 units

Week 6:
Iowa +4.5 (-106) Risking 2.12 units to win 2 units
Amazed how high this line opened up at. Was there that much dumb public money on Michigan vs Wisconsin? Locked this one as soon as I saw the 4.5 drop from 5 as we obviously love the hook in this situation and since I locked in it has since dropped to 3.5. I think Iowa wins outright but LOVE getting points so I will take it for 2 units. Iowa’s offensive line is a top 10 offensive line, ranking in the top 25 of the majority of advanced statistical categories. Michigan’s defensive line has dropped off significantly from last season with all of it’s departures and is currently ranked 60th in line yards, 83rd in power ranking, 73rd in stuff ranking and 56th in sack rate. Despite the cupcake schedule (ranked 97th in sagarin), Michigan's defense has currently allowed opponents to complete 67% of their passes (ranked 102nd) and an experienced Nate Stanley who hasn't thrown an INT yet and has completed 64% of his passes should have a great day. Iowa is one of the least penalized teams in the country and they have been great this year at controlling the clock and out-possessing their opponent ranking 5th in the nation with TOP % of 60%. Michigan hasn’t been able to maintain drives or possess the ball as they are ranked 102nd with a 46% TOP%. When Ferentz and Harbaugh last faced off in 2016, Michigan had the better team yet Ferentz still found a way to beat them 14-13 despite being a 24 point underdog. This was definitely one that I could pick out from the eye test and see that Iowa is the better team but the numbers also agree so we will go ahead and fire for two units getting this many points and knowing Michigan is typically overvalued and Iowa under-valued.

Auburn -3 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Auburn is a much better team with Malzahn calling the plays again and it showed in their blowout of Texas AM last week. The final score was deceiving as Texas AM wasn't ever really in it and Malzahn took his foot off the gas early after going up 21-3. Meanwhile Florida is coasting along an easy schedule playing big name schools like Tennessee, Miami, and Kentucky - but these 3 teams are all absolutely terrible this season (and I’m a hurricane) and UF has squeaked out victories in 2 of the 3 games. Sagarin has them with the 91st most difficult SOS to date and Auburn is ranked 5th having played stronger opponents and winning more soundly. The biggest mismatch will be Auburn's dominant defensive line against a UF offensive line that has struggled to date. UF’s offensive line ranks 109th in line yards, 126th in opportunity rate, 126th in power ranking, and 103rd in success ranking. Auburn’s defensive line, led by Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson have been dominating ranking 12th in line yards, 13th in opportunity rate, 58th in power ranking and 37th in stuff rating. Considering these numbers and the SOS discrepancy - you’d be a fool to bet on Florida to cover 3 points. This Gator team is a fraud with a number 10 AP ranking and they are about to get exposed. Blowout win.

UL Monroe TT Under 23.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
This Memphis team has been a defensive surprise this season as they are currently ranked 9th in SP+ ratings and 28th in D-FEI rankings showing significant improvement from last season. They are ranked #1 in opponent completion percentage allowed only allowing opponents to complete 41% of their passes. They are ranked 8th in passing yards allowed per play and 29th in rushing yards per play. They have been getting to the QB as well ranking #12 in sack rate which should be an issue for this ULM team that definitely struggles with a sack rate allowed to date ranking of 41st against weak competition. Memphis have held much stronger offensive opponents in Navy and Ole Miss to under 23 points - no reason to think this doesn't stay well under the total. Memphis should dominate the line of scrimmage like they did last time these two teams faced off in 2017 when ULM ran for only 146 yards on 50 carries. We also have a strong advantage in special teams as Memphis is currently ranked 17th in special teams SP+ where ULM is ranked 104th. Let’s hope Memphis takes it down a notch on offense from when the last faced off, which they should as they have dropped almost 10 ppg since their 2017 form when they ran for 8.18 yards per carry against ULM. Memphis will be on the road and let’s hope they don’t run up the score against this meaningless sun belt conference and are looking ahead to their conference opponent Temple next week.

Smutbucket · 10-05-19, 09:22 AM

Week 6 Adds:
Arizona +4 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
Taking a bit of risk with Tate and Taylor still questionable status for this game but I like this many points regardless if they play or not. Colorado is facing quite a few of their own injuries on their defense that should have a much more serious impact. Currently 3 out of their top 5 defensive tacklers are either out or questionable and this was already a horrible defense to begin with ranking 91st in D-FEI and 113th in SP+. Could you imagine how bad their backups would be? Last year when these two teams faced off not only did Arizona win by 8 but they dominated netting 3.1 yards per play more than Colorado. I think the big name injuries to Tate/Taylor and the fact that Colorado is 3-1 ATS with their own couple big upsets against a crappy Nebraska and Arizona State are giving us extra value. Tate’s backup Grant Gunnell looked more than capable to hold his own against a Colorado defense which should be damn easy to throw against and comparable to the FCS action he saw this year where he went 9-11, 151 yards and 3 TDs against Northern Arizona. We also have an advantage at the line of scrimmage as Colorado’s defensive line is one of the worst in the country and Arizona’s defensive line is a middle tier unit and Colorado’s offensive line is slightly below average. Arizona has been getting beat on the ground but that is not the strength of this Colorado team ranking 74th in yards per rush at 3.9 ypc. Go ahead and lock this one in now because if Tate/Taylor get cleared to play then this line will probably drop.

Pittsburgh +5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh struggled last week with FCS school Delaware but that was with a backup QB and Pickett is expected to return. Pittsburgh injury report is riddled with other defensive players but none of them are key pieces to this defense. Duke has been relying on their run game, averaging 4.8 yards per carry (ranked #37) and rushing the ball 60% of the time (ranked 24th). Pitt’s rush defense is the strength of this defense as they are currently ranked 25th in yards per carry allowed at 3.2. Pittsburgh passes 60% of the time and Duke’s secondary is the weakness of their team allowing 8.3 yards per pass (ranked #97) and giving up 68.67% completion percentage to its opponents (ranking 118). Pitt’s defense vs Duke’s offense strongly outweighs them in both FEI and SP+ and I think this will be a huge test for Duke’s offense as, besides Alabama, the two other defenses they faced off against are much weaker defenses with MTSU ranking 109th in defensive FEI and Virgina Tech ranking 81st ind defensive FEI. In the coaching matchup, Narduzzi vs Cutliffe is 4-0 ATS the last 4 years head to head since they both have been at their programs. In their last 9 games as a favorite, Duke is 0-9 ATS and lost 8 of them straight-up. In their last game 16 games as a favorite, the Blue Devils are 2-14 ATS with 12 outright losses. We also have a strong advantage in the Sagarin SOS ratings as Pitt has played a much harder schedule ranking 17th and Duke ranking 78th. I love getting the points here and think Pittsburgh may even win outright.

Uconn vs USF under 49 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Another one of my horrible team vs horrible team “don’t watch game” under special. The first under special I picked this season barely missed by 2.5 points due to UAB laying off a bit in the 4th qtr being up 31-6 and giving up 14 points at the end of the game off of defensive miscues but this one has more promising numbers that agree with. Both teams have been battling injuries at QB and will most likely be playing backups with little experience. We have strong advantages on both sides of the ball on the defensive line with each d-line outranking its offensive line by an average of 40 ranks. USF is the better team and 11.5 point favorite - but they have especially struggled protecting their QB, with a sack ranking allowed of 128 which happens to be the biggest strength of this Uconn defense - ranking 39st in sack rating. Both of these teams offenses are in the bottom 10% of the league in FEI and SP+ ratings and atleast USF’s defense is a slightly below average opposed to horribly below average with a 75 defensive FEI ranking and 56 defensive SP+ rating. Giving us extra value is the fact that the last 3 times these two teams faced off the total ended in the high 50’s and 60’s but these are two different teams this year and I think their ineptitude on offense will stifle themselves more often than not and no defense is required.

Utah State +27 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Sorry - nursing a hangover this morning and don’t feel putting together this last write-up but I have thoroughly looked into this game and love getting this many points.

Smutbucket · 10-11-19, 02:45 PM

Week 6 Results: 2-5 (-4.29 units)
Season YTD: 27-19 (+6.79 units)

Week 7

Virginia (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
I’m very familiar with both of these teams and rarely do I ever bet against my home team, especially on a friday night but this was one I couldn't pass up on. Miami has especially struggled at protecting their QB this season, ranking 127th in sack %. Their starting QB at the beginning of the season Jarron Williams will be sitting out due to being hit so much and in steps N’Kosi Perry who was replaced after struggling last season. Last season he did not do well under pressure completing 50% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt against a soft ACC schedule. Bringing pressure just so happens to be the specialty of this UVA team which I have emphasized in past write-ups - they are ranked 6th in sack %. Their defensive line outranks Miami’s offensive line by an average of 90 ranks in all the relevant categories that I compare. (line yards, opportunity rank, power rank, stuff ranking and sack ranking). Last year when Perry faced UVA he threw 6 passes, completed 3 of them, and threw 2 INT’s. Miami’s defense has been particularly stout against the run, ranking 7th in the nation allowing 2.5 yards per carry. But unfortunately for them in this matchup UVA has no desire to run, ranking 110th in rush play % as they rely on Bryce Perkins to get it done through the air. We also have a strong advantage in special teams as Miami is ranked 109th in Special teams SP+ while Virginia is ranked 51st. Miami is also one of the most heavily penalized teams in the nation ranking 130th in penalties per play and penalties per game. Either way it’s a win, Iff Virginia wins we get the gains to offset the disappointment of a Hurricane loss. If Miami wasn’t my home team I’d probably be doing this bet for two units.

Iowa State -10 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Hopefully Iowa State can redeem themselves after a bad loss two weeks ago that they should have won. The outrank West Virginia in both SP+ and FEI rankings on both sides of the ball as well as special teams. We have a strong advantage at the line of scrimmage as well on both sides of the ball. WVU QB, Austin Kendall has struggled with turnovers giving up 7 INT’s on the season already including 4 last week against Texas - with a weak secondary. This will be the best secondary he has faced to date as they are ranked 27th in yards per pass allowed at 6.3. Tom Manning, returning offensive coordinator (he went to the NFL last year but has been with Campbell for years including at ISU from ‘16-’17 where their offense was much more prolific) has been making all the right play calls on 3rd down converting 46% of their 3rd downs ranking 18th in the nation. This has been a weak point of WVU’s defensive coordinator Vic Koenning, who is currently ranked 121st in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed. Iowa State should maintain the line of scrimmage and win this one easily - leading almost every advanced statistical category by a nice margin.

Arkansas +7 (-108) Risking 1.62 units to win 1.5 units
Arkansas ML (+214) Risking .5 units to win 1.07 units
We’re back on the Arkansas train this week as I think we have a great chance to upset Kentucky here. Sawyer Smith maybe one of the worst backup QBs (he was 3rd on the depth chart before season) I have seen this season as two week’s ago Kentucky’s offense made South Carolina defense look great with Smith and his receivers totally out of sync. Most throws were completely inaccurate and several times they went on completely different routes and both parties we're getting completely frustrated with each other. He transferred over from Troy last season where he saw significantly weaker competition in a non-power 5 school. Despite being an underdog, Arkansas again has a slight edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and last week held up well against Texas A&M’s offensive line - holding them to 89 rushing yards on 33 carries. This will the first time these two coaches face off and I am showing a strong advantage in coaching as I have raved about Chad Morris in past write-ups and Mark stoops should regress from last season considering all his injuries.

Texas Tech +11 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I can’t believe Iowa State blew my 2 unit bet two weeks ago against Baylor. They had plenty of opportunities to run away with that game but ended up losing it in the end. Baylor continues to un-impress me - coasting by on a soft schedule ranking 120th in Sagarin SOS ratings. Against Iowa State their receivers struggled to be in sync with their QB Charlie Brewer with many dropped passes and bad routes. Brewer, is listed on the injury report as probable but is expected to play but starting senior safety Chris Miller will have to sit out the 1st half as he was ejected from last weeks game for targeting. Texas Tech in contrast although they sport weaker stats in both FEI and SP+, they have a significantly stronger SOS year to date with a ranking of 28. Last week their offense saw a spark as they upset Oklahoma State with new starting QB, Jett Duffey, who started a handful of games last year due to injury Although he struggled last year, he looks much improved completing 60% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt with 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s last week. Last year, Texas Tech lost by 7 with an inferior QB starting, Lane McCarter who has since transferred to Rutgers and has been benched after the first two weeks of poor performance. We have HUGE advantage in special teams as Texas Tech is ranked 15th in SP+ while Baylor is ranked 120th. Baylor doesn't have much faith at all in their FG kicker who has made only 50% of his kicks, forcing Baylor to go for it often on 4th down which is not smart football. Tech has a great kicker who has made 87.5% of his FG’s this season. I think this is a one possession game and either team could come out on top so we’ll gladly take the 11 points.

thekoreanmang · 10-11-19, 06:42 PM

In favor of uva:

BRONCO'S BYES

This is the second straight year that Virginia has had a bye week prior to facing Miami, and byes seem to have worked wonders for Mendenhall's teams in recent years. His teams at Virginia and BYU are 4-1 in their last five regular-season games with an extra week to prepare.

Smutbucket · 10-12-19, 09:07 AM

Of course Miami won even though they were dominated in the game because I bet against them

Week 7 Adds:
Miami (Ohio) +12 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
It’s hard to find a statiscal edge on paper in this match-up but thats only because Miami (Ohio) has played the 6th hardest SOS to date, already having faced Iowa, Ohio State, and Cincinnati. They lost a lot of starters from the year before but we like their coach, Chuck Martin as he has come to Miami to build a program. Chuck Martin started at D2 football where he was a dominant head coach for 6 years compiling a record of 74-7. In ‘12 he got noticed by Brian Kelly at Notre Dame and was hired as their offensive coordinator. In the two years as OC at Notre Dame they were a top 30 offense in yards per play and went to the national title game in ‘12 after going undefeated (but then got spanked by Alabama). In ‘14 he decided to come to Miami Ohio and take over for the worst team in the MAC that had gone 0-12 the year before. It’s been a slow rebuild but has improved every season and went 6-6 last year. On the other side of the ball, Western Michigan has Tim Lester a coach with little experience and had taken over a potent offense from PJ Fleck but it has regressed every year since Fleck left in ‘17. Their injuries are piling up with 10 players on their injury report in the last month - including starting QB, Jeff Wassink. Western Michigan has played a very easy schedule and have still given up 5.3 yards per carry ranking #110th in the nation so Miami should finally get their running game going to jump start their offense. As tough as their schedule has been they have been great in the Redzone on defense only allowing scores on 76% of their opponents opportunities - ranking 43rd in the nation. This has been a struggle for WMU as despite their potent big-play offense - have only scored in 66% of their redzone opportunities - ranking #113th. We also have a strong advantage in the kick game as Miami’s kicker is 7 for 7 in field goal attempts while WMU’s kicker is 6 for 9. Miami OH is coming off a bye and a big upset win at Buffalo and I just don’t see how WMU’s defense is good enough to keep this a close game and think we are getting some value with all these misleading stats from the SOS discrepancy.

Miss.St./Tenn Over 51.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This game should go over the total with both defenses dropping off from last season. Miss. State’s regression on defense has been much more significant only returning 3 starters from last years defense that held opponents to 13.2 points per game. 2nd year DC for Miss. State, Bob Shoop will have his hands full as he had taken over a great defensive program but never had much success before last year. In ‘16-’17 he was actually at Tennessee where their defense ranked in the bottom of the league. Both defensive lines have struggled and Miss. State should run at will against this Tennessee front is ranked 98th in line yards, 95 in opportunity rank, 70th in power ranking, and 94th in stuff ranking. Leading rusher in the SEC, Kylin Hill should have a break-out game after being bottled up for 45 rushing yards against an elite Auburn front last week. Both offensive lines have struggled protecting their QB so far this season, but neither defensive line has been effective at getting pressure - ranking in the bottom half of the league for sack %. I think this will be a closer game than odds-makers predict and let’s hope for OT.

Vanderbilt -15 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Call me crazy but I love by Week 7-8 of the season to dig around at the bottom of ATS trend barrel and find a team with some value to bet on and Vanderbilt is that team this week having gone 0-5 ATS to date this season. Both teams defenses are ranked in the bottom 10% of both passing and rushing yards per play but Vanderbilts has been against some of the best offenses in the country in UGA and LSU. UNLV’s toughest offensive opponent in comparison is probably Boise State who is still ranked in the bottom half of the league in SP+ and FEI offensive rankings. K’Shaugn Vaughn should probably run for 300 yards against this UNLV front. We’re getting a lot of value betting on this power 5 school against a very weak opponents whose only win this year has been against an FCS school.

Ole Miss +12 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Great spot to bet against the Missouri team that is riddled with injuries. Not only did they lose starting QB Kelly Bryant last week but also their leading tackler and senior LB, Cale Garret. Bryant might return but Garret will not and they also have 7 other defensive players that they have lost since the beginning of the season due to injury. Although Matt Corral has been out the last two games, Rich Rodriguez has been able to get his yards on the ground even with his backup QB, who ran for over 100 yards the last two games against Alabama and Vanderbilt. Missouri’s defensive line is a bit of a fraud ranking in the Top 20 of almost every category including only allowing 3.1 yards per rush. But if you look at the offenses they have faced to date it’s tough to find an opponent who is not ranked in the bottom half of the league yards per carry. This will be the toughest test yet and I think we cover this one easily and maybe even an outright win as RichRod’s offense seems to be starting to click.

Wisconsin -10.5 (+103) Risking 1 unit to win 1.03 units
No Writeup Sorry

Hman · 10-12-19, 09:18 AM

GL today smut

Smutbucket · 10-18-19, 03:08 PM

Week 7 Results: 5-5 (+0.8 units)
Season YTD: 32-24 (+7.59 units)

FEI advanced stats have finally been released. Time to cash in. Going to try to limit my plays a little more as it always seems the late adds are never as profitable and it seems more likely that picking 4-6 winners at a 60% clip each week is much easier than picking 8-10 winners at 60% clip. The action junkie gets the best of all of us - especially when we are on a hot streak. Will have a few more adds once I dig into games later tonight/tmrw morning.

Week 8:
Pittsburgh ML (-173) Risking 1.73 units to win 1 units
We have strong leans in almost every FEI stat category as well as a much stronger SOS so I think we cash this one regardless of points but we’ll take the ML to be safe (if you can get -3 I would take that but can’t on pickmonitor so I locked in ML). Pitt’s defense has been one of the best ranking 12th in DFEI and 7th in defensive opponent adjusted rating. This will be by far the toughest test to date for this Syracuse offense who’s FEI ranking is 105th. They are in the bottom 10% of most offensive FEI categories - ranking 124th in first down rate, 109th in available yards percentage, and 113th in busted drive rate. Their offense is not nearly as explosive as it was last year losing 4 year starter Eric Dungey, they are currently ranked 76th in explosive drive rate. Offensive coordinator, Mike Lynch has had 0 coordinating experience before being promoted in house to sole offensive coordinator last year in 2018 and he had a great offense but with a 4 year starter he worked with for 3 years as a co-offensive coordinator. This offense will continue to struggle as it has already struggled with much weaker competition. Getting pressure is the specialty of Pat Narduzzi and this Pitt defense that is ranked 7th in sack %. They will surely pile them up against a Syracuse offensive line that is ranked 125th in sack % including giving up 8 last week to NC state. If you look at the two schedules alone of these teams (without these stats) you would see a glaringly obvious pick in Pit. The market makes mistakes sometimes and I’m not too worried about the “trap” theory. Proponents of the “trap” theory have last week’s Friday night matchup to affirm their conspiracies with Virginia vs Miami, citing the obvious under-valuation of Virginia and low and behold they lost. But Virginia dominated that game and was the better team so I don’t mind losing that bet (it does sting). Pitt will be coming fresh off a bye and will hopefully come out rested and playing in-sync on offense as I have little doubt their defense shuts down this Syracuse offense.

Virginia -3 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Lost two straight bets now betting on this Virginia team and maybe I'm just being stubborn but I love them again this week. I still think they get it done despite losing Bryce Hall on defense. A contrarian ATS situational angle also agrees with us as Virginia is 1-3-1 in their last 5 ATS and Duke is 4-1 in their last 5 ATS. Although Virginia’s offensive stats are not great this season, I see potential having watched most of their games. Although they are middle-tier in most advanced stat categories, their opponent adjusted offensive FEI rating is actually 13th - given the fact that they have played some very tough defenses. This is not the case for this Duke team that has a Sagarin SOS rating of only 72nd despite playing one of the best teams in the nation (Alabama). Virginia’s special teams also has been one of the best in the country this year ranking 3rd in FEI special teams rankings. Take at least 3 if you can but I think Virginia wins this one easily like they have the last 3 seasons since these two coaches faced off. The last 3 years, Bronco has been an underdog every year and won by 14 last year, won by 7 in 2017, and won by 16 in 2016.

Penn State vs Michigan Under 45.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
First bet I locked in this week and shoulda waited as the line has surprisingly been rising but I didn't mind once getting above 45. We have two BIG 10 powerhouse defenses facing off - and these matchups have been a recipe for under’s all season. So far this season, when a ranked team in the big 10 faced off against a ranked team, the under has hit 3 out of 4 matchups this year falling well under the total with the only game going over Wisconsin vs Michigan where it went over by only 3 points because Wisconsin put up 35 of the 49 total. I think Michigan's offense will struggle again facing one of the best defenses in the league. Penn State’s defense is ranked 8th in opponent adjusted D-FEI, 8th in first down rate, 4th in explosive drive rate (meaning they don’t give up the big plays), and 8th in available yards percentage. Their defensive front is one of the best in the nation ranking 6th in line yards, 3rd in opportunity rate, 3rd in stuff rating, and 15th in sack rate. As I stated in other write-ups, I think this Penn State offense is due for some regression from last year and the advanced stats are pointing in this direction so far. They are ranked 78th in line yards, 46th in opportunity rate and power rating, and 61st in sack rate allowed. Michigan defense hasn't been as good as last year but Don Brown has still been great at bringing pressure ranking 8th in sack rating. Neither team has an effective field goal kicker with Michigan ranking 105th and Penn State ranking 77th in FG%. The last 4 years in this rivalry matchup, none of the games have been close, with the winning team blowing out it’s opponent and sending the games well over the total. I think this year these teams are much more evenly matched and it will be a very low scoring game. Both coaches know their defense is their strength and will protect the ball and not allow turnovers that lead to points dictate the outcome like they did in seasons past.

Smutbucket · 10-19-19, 09:44 AM

Week 8 Adds:
Auburn/Arkansas Under 55 (+103) Risking 1 unit to win 1.03 units
This is a bit of a look ahead spot for Auburn as they face LSU next week and are a 19.5 point favorite against the razorbacks. If anyone knows this Auburn offense, it’s defensive coordinator Jon Chavis at Arkansas. He faced off against Gus Malzhan 3 times in his career (At LSU and TexasAM) and held his offenses in check including in 2013 when LSU gave Auburn it’s only loss during the season and held them to their lowest point total all season at 21 points. Malzahn respects Chavis and will play conservatively considering the limitations he has at QB with Bo Nix and the injury to starting RB Whitlow. Also surprisingly Arkansas defensive line is ranked 21 in power rating and 18th in stuff rating so they should be able to stop Auburn from getting short yardage who is ranked 61st and 47th in those two categories. II think there's a good chance that Arkansas is held to under 14 points as well as Auburn's defense is elite - ranking in the top 25 of almost all defensive FEI categories and Arkasnas’s offense has struggled ranking in the bottom half of the league in most categories. Auburn's defense outranks Arkasnas’s offense by an average of 40 ranks across all FEI categories. Auburn has also had a significantly harder schedule and will look to take it easy and get out of this one quickly without any turnover that has plagued Bo Nix this season.

Oregon State +11 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Oregon State ML (+323) Risking .25 units to win .81 units
This is a pick I did not expect to be on as the numbers surprisingly popped out in favor of Oregon State. The biggest surprise was at the line of scrimmage - as Oregon State has a strong edge on both sides of the ball. This Oregon State offensive line outranks this California defensive line by an average of 47 ranks in all FO advanced line stats. Despite last week their rushing game has been very potent this season and they ranked in the top 30 of most categories. As strong as this California defense has been it hasn't been defending the run as they are ranked 91st in line yards, 109th in opportunity rate, 71st in power rankings, 82nd in stuff ranking and 78th in sack rating. Oregon State should move the ball well with Jake Luton who is 6’7 and has plenty of experience in this system. I like Oregon State’s head coach, Jonathan Smith, who is in his 2nd year and had a great run in Washington as an OC from ‘14-’17 where he improved the offense significantly every season including ranking 11th in ypp in ‘16. California’s offense has struggled since losing their starting QB but I think this game might actually be a shootout as Oregon State’s defense is so poor but I think we cover the 11 easily and may even come out with the big upset so with sprinkled in a .25 ML unit bet.

North Carolina ML (-175) Risking 1.75 units to win 1 units
Despite North Carolina having the worst record, they’ve had the much harder schedule ranking 7th in Sagarin ratings compared to a measly 107th of Virginia Tech. Although their offense has struggled at times and are an “average” middle-tier offense, when you factor in their opponents - they look much better than they do on paper. Although they are ranked 40th in offensive FEI, they are ranked 7th in offensive opponent adjustments. In contrast, Vtech is ranked 76th in offensive FEI, but their offensive opponent adjustments regress to a ranking of 86th. This is usually a good indicator of when to buy/sell a team and we have strong buy indicators on UNC and strong sell indicators on Vtech. The biggest other advantage we should have is with explosive plays since UNC is ranked 44th in offensive explosive drive rate and Virginia Tech's defense is ranked 107th in explosive drive rate allowed. Our defense also strongly outranks vtech offense in almost ALL FEI categories and an average of 32 ranks across all FEI stat categories that I follow. I think we also have a strong advantage at the QB position as even though Howell is a freshman he has had 4 times the attempts than redshirt sophomore Hendon Hooker and better numbers against better competition. He does not force bad throws as he has only had 3 INTs on the season. UNC is coming off a bye and an experienced coach like Mack Brown will have his team ready as he has gone 30-7-1 in his career off byes. This is a huge game for both teams and it will be a fun ACC game to watch. I was leaning the points at first and considering two units but after much deliberation I decided to just take the ML and the one point as there is no worse feeling in the world when you pick the right side but don’t cover the points. Let’s be safe.

FSU ML (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units
FSU is a much better team with a QB like Hornibrook who is a game-manager - doesn’t make many mistakes, and can extend plays and get the ball to his playmakers - unlike Blackmn who has struggled to read coverages and get the ball out of his hand all season. Last week Blackman returned from injury but was benched due to such poor performance and I wish Willie would just name Hornibrook the starter to solidify this pick as Blackman is my biggest concern. Hornibrook definitely looks like he has matured and has completed 72% of his passes this season averaging 9.1 yards per pass with only 1 INT and 6 TDs. Many of the stats are not in our favor in this matchup (giving us some value in the line) but that's because Blackman started most of the games and because FSU has had a much stronger SOS than Wake this season. FSU is ranked 15th in sagarin and Wake is ranked 80th. We also have the contrasting FEI-OOA (opponent adjusted) ranking indicator that shows that even though FSU is ranked 55th in FEI - their OOA is better at 40th on offense and on defense it rises from 61st to 35th in DOA. Wake, with such an easy schedule is opposite as their OFEI is 27thth and drops to 71st in OOA while their DFEI is 58th and drops to 70th in DOA. We also have a strong advantage in special teams as Wake is ranked 108th in Special teams FEI and FSU is ranked 52nd. Last year, Taggaret handled Clawson easily blowing them out by 20 points - here’s to hoping they pull off the W in what should be a close game.

Hman · 10-19-19, 09:56 AM

GL today