Week 9 Results: (5-3) +2.6 units
Season YTD: (39-47) -13.28 units
Is this rhythm? Very happy with some handicapping tweaks I’ve made over the last few weeks, let’s see if it pays off. Data organization is a beautiful thing. I’ve got a couple more later games just waiting around some key numbers. Didn’t sleep a wink last night.
Week 10: Tennessee -22.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units Tennessee has had the 2nd hardest schedule to date as they just went through the gauntlet of the SEC. They will be happy to finally have a weak conference USA opponent they can beat up on. For comparison Charlotte’s sagarin sos ranking is 132nd. The S&P numbers agree that Tennessee will have a strong edge on both sides of the ball, outranking Charlotte in every category on both sides of the ball except Tennessee rushing offense as it’s been very poor and holds a 96th ranking. I’m not too concerned that Charlotte’s team has much better offense/defensive line numbers as their schedules are no where comparable. This should be a similar matchup to when Tennessee faced a UTEP team earlier I the season and held them to 0 points. Let’s hope Tennessee can muster at least 28 pts.
Utah -8.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units This is my favorite pick of the weekend but I couldn’t bring myself to do 2 units. Utah has been one of my favorite teams to bet on if you’ve been following this thread. Utah has a HUGE advantage in the S&P rankings and the offensive/defensive line matchups. For S&P rankings, Utah on offense outranks the ASU defense on average by 72 rankings except ISOppp which is not a big issue as Utah should move the ball slowly and methodically against this ASU defense. They have a strong advantage on the offensive and defensive line as they out rank ASU in every category except their offenses sack ranking. I also have a very strong coaching advantage to Utah as I still have ASU has one of the worst rated coaching staffs despite the hot start (no one got a look at them before). Despite being 5-3 ATS now I don’t expect ASU to be ending the season with a positive ATS, let’s look to fade in the future.
Purdue -2.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units This was one that unexpectedly came up in the new blind numbers system I developed. Before looking at the numbers I would have assumed Iowa had more strong edges but it turns out its Purdue. The biggest advantage Purdue will have is at the line of scrimmage as they have been dominating teams in the trenches, ranking 8th in power ranking and 22nd in stuff ranking. Unlike a typical Iowa defense they are very weak upfront, ranking 99th in power ranking and 109th in stuff ranking. On offense Iowa’s run game has been struggling, ranking 116th in rushing S&P, which should play right into Purdue’s strength as they are ranked 40th in rushing S&P on defense and it will be difficult to put up points if you can’t run the ball. Thankfully Sindelar has been sidelined as he cost me two losses this season and Blough will get the start. In last year’s first matchup between these two coaches, Purdue went into Iowa and upset them despite being a 6 point dog. Purdue pulls out a close one.
Air Force +6.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units This will be an interesting matchup as both teams will be playing into each other’s strengths. Army’s strength is their offensive line rushing attack, ranking 14th in adjusted line yards, 7th in power ranking and 5th in stuff rating. But this is Air Force’s strength in their defense as they are ranked 2nd in adjusted line yards, 5th in opportunity rank, 6th in power rating, and 10th in stuff rating. The Army offense has not seen a defensive front like this yet as they are ranked 18th in defensive rushing S&P. Air force’s defense has struggled against the pass ranking 125th but we know Army doesn’t pass much. On the offensive line Air Force has advantages too as Army’s is one of the bottom in the league ranked 115th in adjusted line yards, 126th in opportunity ranking, and 93rd in defensive S&P. This is one of the few matchups where recent past ATS stats matter as both teams’ coaches and offensive systems have been in place for a while. Air Force has dominated the last several years although last year they got beat 21-0. I think this game remains close.
Michigan State -3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units The biggest reason I selected this game is the body of work difference between these two teams. Michigan State has played one of the best schedules in the country coming off a string of tough BIG 10 opponents. Maryland though has faced the weaker side of the BIG 10 and do not have as impressive as numbers as Michigan State. Michigan State’s defense is the real deal, especially against the run, ranking 2nd in defensive S&P rankings. Their defensive line is has 3 of the 5 rankings I track in the Top 3 and are one of the best in the country in true D’Antonio fashion. Maryland’s whole offense relies on the run game and without that going they will surely struggle. Against their 3 tough defensive opponents they were held for under 4 yards per carry. Their offense has really padded their stats against weak competition like they did last week against Illinois putting up 63 points but at the same time their defense allowed 6.63 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass. I like Michigan State to win this one as their offense should finally show some life against this weak Maryland defense. Maryland is also one of the most heavily penalized teams in the country. Michigan State has thus far been great in the possession game, ranking 17th in the league which is an area Maryland has struggled as they are ranked 109th in TOP %.
Missouri/UF Under 57.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units I like this matchup to stay under the total despite the numbers not all lining up to agree. Last week, UF’s top cover corner CJ Henderson who leads the teams in broken up passes was knocked out of the game last week and UGA attacked the backup and put up 36 on UF. We should have stayed under the total in that one but Franks had some key INT’s in their own territory and could not get anything going on offense which should be the case this week. Missouri’s rush defense has been good this season, giving up the biggest chunk of yards to Bama, UGA, and Memphis. All their other opponents they kept under 3 ypc and currently sport the 29th best ypc allowed. They held 4 opponents to under 100 yards including Purdue who they held to 42 yards on the ground. Last year they held UF to 3 yards per carry and under 100 yards. UF is in a revenge spot at home as they got blown out on the road last year at Missouri sending the total over. Both teams are coming off a string of tough opponents. Both teams also have higher over %’s this season giving us additional value.
Duke/Miami Under 50.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units A bit surprised how high this number is considering how bad both offenses have been. Miami is struggling to find a starting QB and does not have a talented one on their team that can lead this team. Their defense fortunately has been lights out although last week they gave up a lot of yards and points to BC, a lot of them were trick plays. Miami’s defense heavily outranks Duke’s offense in every S&P rating and every offensive /defensive line stat that I follow, so that’s a good sign. They are number 1 in stuff ranking and 10th in power ranking which should set up trouble for Duke who is ranked 120th on offense in power ranking and 98th in stuff ranking. Both teams have a slew of injuries, predominately on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams are very familiar with each other as they play each other every season and there is bad blood. Expect both defenses to play lights out and show up in a low scoring affair in Miami.
Appalachian State -14 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1units Last week, Appalachian state’s starting QB got hurt on the first play of the game throwing in some unprepared backups as they had 4 interceptions combined. Zac Thomas is expected to return and lets hope so but I don’t know if we’ll even need it. Appalachian state can run the ball, ranking 17th in yards per rush and should have a field day against this Coastal Carolina defense that is allowing 7.3 yards per rush. The offensive line matchup looks good as well as Appalachian State outranks Coastal Carolina by 113 ranks in power rankings. The S&P rankings show a strong 40-60 ranking advantage on both sides of the ball as Appalachian State can play defense, ranked 25th in the nation in defensive S&P (against their soft schedule)
Adding: Washington -10 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units Myles Gaskin returns which should bring some life to this Washington offense that somehow lost last week at California. Despite losing I still like our chances because even though Cal’s offense has been horrible their defense is actually ranked 11th in the country in defensive S&P and caused their offense to struggle without Gaskin. This Stanford defense is not your typical Stanford defense as they are one of the worst in the county. Washington outranks them in every S&P category and by 71 in passing S&P as they should throw at will against this 90th ranked passing defense. The last two times Shaw and Stanford went to Peterson in Washington they went 0-2 ATS including ’16 where they were blown out 44-6. I love how Washington is 2-7 ATS and had a big loss last week to California which gives us value.
San Diego State -12 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units New Mexico’s defense is one of the worst in the country and they just lost their leading tackler due to suspension for violating team rules. San Diego State’s offense has been unproductive thus far but they are expected to be getting quite a few weapons back. Their defense has been very strong and should cause problems for this New Mexico offense that is ranked 77th in offensive S&P. They are ranked 121st in IsoPPP and 111th in rushing S&P. San Diego State’s defensive line should really dominate this game by the numbers outranking New Mexico’s offensive line by an average of 84 ranks in every rushing category.
Week 9 Results: (5-3) +2.6 units
Season YTD: (39-47) -13.28 units
Week 10:
Tennessee -22.5 (-103)
Utah -8.5 (-105)
Purdue -2.5 (-114)
Air Force +6.5 (-107)
Michigan State -3 (-105)
Missouri/UF Under 57.5 (-105)
Duke/Miami Under 50.5 (-105)
Appalachian State -14 (-105)
Washington -10 (-107)
San Diego State -12 (-105)
Sorry for the later than usual post, wanted to cross all my t's and dot all my i's.
Week 10 Results: (5-5) -.34 units
Season YTD: (39-49) -16.22 units
Week 11:
BYU -13.5 (-108)
Maryland +1 (-102)
Connecticut +19 (-102)
North Carolina +9.5 (-105)
North Carolina ML (+315) (.5x)
Miss State +23.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh -3 (-115)
NW/Iowa Under 43.5 (-105)
Temple +4.5 (-108)
FSU/ND Under 49.5 (-103)
Writeups:
BYU -13.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
This is a revenge spot for BYU who lost last season at home to Umass. The stats for the two teams were nearly identical except for the fact that BYU had 4 turnovers with backup QB who took over the reins after Mangum got hurt. This year the situation is reversed as Umasss recently loss starting QB Andrew Ford and has a Ross Comis leading the team. Comis this season has gotten the bulk of his snaps during garbage time when they were either being blown out or blowing out a crappy opponent. Ford got hurt two games ago and since then Umass has only played UConn and Liberty. This defense will be a much more difficult matchup for him. BYU ranks in the top 35 in most defensive S&P rankings except success ranking despite playing a 40th ranked SOS ranking. Umass defense ranks in the bottom of almost every S&P ranking and has the 120th ranked SOS ranking. Zach Wilson recently took over the starting QB role at BYU as he offers more versatility with his legs. These will come in handy in these cold, windy conditions and I think Umass offense will really struggle as they are a heavily pass oriented team and don’t think they will get any push on the ground. BYU wins big.
Maryland +1 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win units
Despite all the negative media attention from the Durkin firing, I like Maryland in this spot for a few reasons. I really love the rushing attack and explosiveness of this Maryland offense and getting the big play, ranking 5th in isoPPP ranking and 32nd in rushing. Indiana’s defense struggles in this area as they are ranked 102nd in isoPPP and 70th in rushing. So we should expect some big plays from Maryland of offense. Maryland’s defense has also been great at stopping big plays ranking 25th in isoPPP while Indiana’s offense struggles to produce them ranking 120th is isoPPP. Maryland’s defense has quietly been one of the better teams against the pass, ranking 1st in int% and 30th in passing S&P. Offenses have been exposing Maryland’s rush defense which has been horrible but Indiana is a pass first team, only running the ball 46% of the time ranking 110th. We all know the cold weather usually favors the running team so let’s take Maryland in this matchup.
Connecticut +19 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
This is entirely a situational angle. We have Uconn at home getting 19 points after starting the season 1-7-1 ATS. Teams NEVER finish with only 1 ATS win, except for 3 teams in the last 10 years. Uconn has also had a poor ATS the last few seasons, going 2-9-1 in 2016. Odds-makers usually readjust and teams that have that poor of an ATS usually improve seasons after. Thus far Uconn has not (some unfortunate breaks last time I bet on them) but there are still 3 games left and you might just find me chasing this team to get their last ATS win as I believe it WILL come. I also like how SMU is 5-3 ATS and coming off a big upset win against Houston. SMU’s offense and line are ranked one of the worst in the league so let’s see if they can put enough points to cover against one of the worst defenses.
North Carolina +9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
North Carolina ML (+315) Risking .5 to win 1.57 units
This is a rivalry game where UNC has nothing to lose but a lot of rivalry pride to win if they do and Fedora is playing for his job. UNC has been keeping it close with most teams lately as they have recently got a number of players back from suspension and injury.Last year against Duke it was a close one possession game until Duke scored 14 unanswered in the 4th qtr. Duke has won and covered in the last two matchups which I think gives us a little value. There aren’t many numbers to support this pick as UNC has been horrible but key starters return like their two defensive ends whose backups have contributed to the awful numbers. It’s possible we see Jace Ruder who sparked UNC’s offense last week in the 2nd qtr. He led them on an 8 play 85 yards drive for a TD but then left the game and dressed in a sling and Fedora has been very secretive about his status and is currently listed as questionable. UNC can run the ball averaging almost 5 yards per carry and this Duke front can be run on (Miami insisted on throwing last week in the pouring rain) I love our 3 to 1 odds money line in a matchup I think we have a much closer chance of winning then the market expects.
Miss State +23.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Too many points here against one of the best defenses in the league. Sorry no writeup.
Pittsburgh -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I like that these two teams are heading in opposite directions. Pittsburgh is coming off two upset wins against Duke and Virginia (and a close one against ND). Virginia Tech is coming off two disappointing losses against Gtech and BC. In those two losses Vtech defense (who is now riddled with injuries) gave up a ton of yards on the ground, including 6 yards per carry in 2 of the last 3 of 4.5 against BC. It is a defense who apparently does not have a lot of depth as they have 6 defenders that have been added since last week and they are all listed as questionable or out for this game. Pitt has been running the ball lights out lately, including over 9 yards per carry and almost 500 yards against Duke. Pitt is great at getting the big play on the ground ranking 34th in isoPPP while Vtech defense ranks 114th in isoPPP so we should see some big plays on our side. At home in a revenge game where we have the cold weather in our teams favor, I see no reason why we don’t cover 3 in this matchup.
NW/Iowa Under 43.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units\
I love these BIG 10 matchups in the freezing cold against two tough defenses and think it will be fun to watch players tackle unlike the BIG 12 or PAC 12. These two teams are very familiar with each other as both coaches and programs have been in place for a while and they face off every year. Both team’s defenses and lines have a strong advantage in most categories against their offensive counterparts. Iowa has one of the slowest paces in the game and Northwestern will look to match that and out possess their opponent. Both teams have an unusual over to under ratio which is giving us additional value. I think both defenses step up big in this cold windy game.
Temple +4.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I like this temple team since Russo took over the starting QB position and they have won 5 of their last 7 games. They have a strong advantage in the passing game which should keep this one close. Although Houston’s passing offense has been explosive (ranked 4th in isoPPP) and 18th in S&P, they have yet to see a defense like this Temple’s defense. They are ranked 2nd against the pass in defensive S&P and 9th in isoPPP. Houstons defense on the other has been nothing to write home about as they are ranked 91st in defensive s&p and rely on their offense to outscore teams. I also like Temples body of work so far this season much better than Houston’s. Lets take the points in this one which should be a 1 possession high scoring game.
FSU/ND Under 49.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Even though we have lost several points since Wimbush was declared the starter I still think this is going to be a very low scoring affair. We all know the struggles FSU has had on their offensive line and BOTH teams defensive lines outweigh the offensive lines by a SIGNIFICANT margin and I am not sure if FSU will put up any points at all against this defense that is ranked 3rd in S&P as their horrible offense is ranked 102nd. The weather also works in our favor in this matchup.
Week 11 results: (6-4) +2.4 units
Season YTD: (45-54) -13.82 units
Will post more in the morning.
Week 12: Michigan State -1.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units Although Michigan State offense has struggled all season long their defense has been one of the best in the nation. Last week they held an explosive Ohio state offense to only 17 points despite generating nothing on offense. Nebraska is looking much better now that Martinez is back and healthy and have covered 5 of their last 6 games, but this will be there toughest defensive test to date. The weather should play in our favor as Nebraska relies on their passing game, but we’re expected to have cold weather and high winds. I think the Spartans should be able to generate some form of offense against this Nebraska defense that has been nothing special ranking 92nd in isoPPP, 94th in Rush S&P, and 75th in passing. MSU’s defense is in the top 5 of most advanced categories and will have a strong edge in the trenches as this Nebraska front is nothing to write home about. We have a strong advantage in the kicking game as MSU’s kicker is hitting 87.5% of his kicks while Nebraska’s kicker is only hitting 66%, which could be the difference in this low scoring game. This will be a great BIG 10 match-up to watch and start the day off at noon.
TCU +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
TCU ML (+110) Risking .5 units to win .55 units
Locked in for one unit for the game and the more and more I looked into it I decided to add another half unit making it a 1.5 unit bet in all. Despite losing their last 7 games against the spread they still have one of the best defenses in the BIG 12, ranking in the 25-40 range of most S&P and defensive line stats. Baylor on the other hand is at the bottom of most S&P stats and defensive line with their line yards ranking 105th and isoPPP rank 118th- they are very susceptible to the big play. Turnovers have been a plague for TCU this season ranking #130 in TO margin per game, but fortunately Baylor has been one of the worst teams at takeaways per game, ranking #128th. TCU is also one of the least penalized teams in the country ranking 4th in penalties per play while Baylor is one of the worst, ranking 108th in penalties per play. We should win this one outright with ease as the odds-makers are undervaluing this TCU team.
Virginia +5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Virginia ML (+185) Risking .5 units to win .93 units
After dropping it's last two games ATS, I think we have a good chance of covering this and even winning outright. Bronco has seen a steady dose of the option offenses throughout his career, having faced them the last two years and a few times back at BYU- he has always done a good job at preparing his defense to face it and has emphasized how much he enjoys matching up against it. Virginia’s offensive line has quietly been one of the best in the nation, ranking 16th in line yards, 9th in opportunity rank, 2nd in power ranking, and 20th in stuff ranking, which all significantly outrank Georgia techs defensive line. The one area Virginia’s offensive line struggles at is taking sacks but it shouldn’t be an issue against this Georgia tech team that is ranked 119th in sack rating. Virginia’s defense this season is also the best in the country at creating havoc in the backfield and creating in-completion through deflected passes. They are ranked 1st in PD to INC rate at 34.2% and 1st in DB havoc rate. They should get some penetration in the back field and throw this option out of sorts. Take the ML for a half unit.
Week 12 Adds: Minnesota ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units This was a game I was initially leaning Northwestern but the more I looked into the game the more I liked Minnesota. First off I always love to find matchups where one team had a big jump in the S&P ratings vs a team that has had a drop. This is the case in this matchup, as Minnesota jumped 23 spots in the S&P after defeating Purdue and Northwestern despite winning a hard fought battle in Iowa, dropped 9 spots.Minnesota has all the momentum going in to this home game on senior day in a game that is much more important to them as Northwestern just clinched the West and will surely be resting their depleted secondary. 4 of it’s 5 starters are out due to injury and Tanner Morgan should exploit these vulnerabilities. Since taking over the starting role, Tanner is 2-1 and throwing over 10 yards per completion. They also sometimes mix-in a mobile running QB that can run the wildcat very efficiently Seth Green that will create problems for Northwestern. We have strong advantages on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in Minnesota’s favor and I just do not see how Northwestern musters up enough to win this one.
Iowa State +2.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
This is a game that immediately stood out to me as a heavy lean and the more I investigated the more I loved it. If it’s a trap so be it but I think its more a reflection of a market that heavily bets Texas and over-rates them every season. Texas has not played a respectable defense since week 4 against TCU. Over the last 6 weeks the average defensive S&P ratings of the horrendous BIG 12 teams Texas has faced is 79 with the toughest being Oklahoma at 54. This Iowa State defense is for real and ranked 26th in overall S&P and in the Top 20 of all S&P ratings giving them a strong edge in isoPPP and defending the run as Texas is in the bottom of the league in both categories. Iowa State is also one of the least penalized teams while Texas is one of the highest. Iowa State has not lost since Brock Purdy took over the starting role and I see no reason why they lose this one in Texas.
Wisconsin +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Can people stop talking about how horrible Wisconsin is and such a disappointment? Hornibrook has been hurt and sat out in its two big losses against Northwestern and Penn State. Despite all this Wisconsin offense is still one of the best in the nation. Their offensive line, in true Wisconsin fashion is ranked #1 in line yards, #1 in opportunity rank, and #1 in stuff ranking- a very impressive feat that is extremely rare to see in these stat categories. Despite not having much of a passing threat and facing some stout fronts, they have managed to rush for 6.2 yards per carry, and Jonathan Taylor averaging 6.79 yards per carry. This should spell disaster for a Purdue offense that allowed Minnesota to run for 265 yards and 6.2 yards per carry last week. Wisconsin’s thorn in it’s offense’s side has been turnovers and hopefully this Purdue defense that ranks #100 in takeaways per game does not come up with any. Wisconsin’s slow paced methodical offensive style is the perfect counter punch to Purdue’s quick explosive offense. Hopefully controlling the clock and keeping their defense off the field will keep them fresh and ready to pull off the upset.
Nevada -14.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Jay Norvell has had an impressive turn around at this Nevada program in his second season going 6-4 thus far after going 3-9 last season. San Jose State on the other hand has been a dumpster fire in Brent Brennan’s second year. They are ranked in the bottom 15% of almost all categories that I track. The biggest mismatch will be on San Jose State’s offense against Nevada’s defensive front. Nevada outranks SJ state heavily in the trenches and have been averaging 8 TFL per game which is ranked 11th in the nation. This will spell trouble for SJ state that is currently ranked 109th in TFL allowed giving up 7.2 per game. San Jose State’s offense is averaging 1.9 yards per carry. Nevada has been well undervalued it’s last 3 games where they have covered the spread on average by 17 pts. Last season when these two coaches faced off, Nevada won big 59-14 and there’s no reason to think they do not win by 14+ points in this game.
Arizona +10.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
This is a rare pick for me in that it’s one where the numbers don’t al agree but the situational angles are too much to ignore. I like the situational angle of Arizona finally healthy and off a bye. It’s clear their new offensive system took time to implement as they struggled early on. They will be much more rested then Washington State. Kevin Sumlin is very good with time to prepare and Im sure we’ll see some wrinkles in this game. This game means nothing Washington State and next week’s game against Washington means everything so this is the definition of a look-ahead spot. Also giving us some value is the fact that Washington State is 9-1 ATS so far this season and in the last 10 years there have only been 2 teams that had 1 ATS loss by season’s end.
UNLV +6 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Hawaii has lost 4 straight and despite coming off a bye this week there is no reason to expect a change. During those 4 losses they averaged a 15.5 differential from the spread and gave up 7.37 yards per play. Their defense has been horrendous to say the least.They have been especially bad against the rush, ranking 119th and allowing big rushing plays ranking 124th in isoPPP. This has been UNLV offense’s specialty this season as they are ranked 23rd in isoPPP and 8th in S&P rushing. Armani Rodgers should be available back from injury who gives their offense a whole different look as he is QB that can run and run well. Tony Sanchez is 2-0 ATS and SU in his last 2 games against Rolovich and the rainbow warriors. Love this game and the numbers are so inviting it almost smells like a trap but let’s just hope this is a game the bookies overlooked as the betting public will see Hawaii at home against a 3-7 team.
UAB/Texas A&M Under 45.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
I unexpectedly ended up pulling the trigger on the total in this matchup for several reasons. UAB’s offense relies on it’s run game rushing 65% of the time and accounts for 55% of their yards. This is Texas A&M’s defense’s biggest strength as they are ranked 7th in rushing S&P and only allowing 3.1 yards per pass. Texas A&M is a much more balanced offense with their play selection at 50/50 but have struggled protecting their QB and taking sacks. They are ranked 116th in sack rate allowed and that just so happens to be the biggest strength of this UAB defense who is ranked 2nd in the nation in sack rate and 4th in overall havoc rate. The UAB defensive line has strong advantages in every category and not just sack rate. The pace of play for each team is also extremely beneficial for the under as UAB is ranked 97th in adjusted pace and Texas A&M is ranked 121st in adjusted pace. This one should stay under the total and my gut feeling is UAB will barely put up any points as despite pretty good numbers on offense it has been against 147th weakest schedule and Texas A&M has played the 5th hardest according to Sagarin rankings.
Week 12: 4-8(-5.12) units
Season YTD: (49-62) -18.94 units
Apologies to all those who tailed. In a rut and working on getting out of it. The sun will rise tomorrow and we will try again. No writeups this week just have too much going on, sorry.
Week 13:
Nebraska +8 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Arkansas +23 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Virginia ML (-190) Risking 1.9 units to win 1 units
Washington +1.5 (-105) Risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
Week 13 Adds: more to come soon
Georgia Tech +16.5 (-105) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
NC State -7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Wake Forest +10 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Wake Forest ML (+328) Risking .5 units to win 1.64 units
Texas A&M -3 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Notre Dame -10.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
UF/FSU Under 51.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Final Adds:
Arizona State/Arizona Over 64.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Maryland +12.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Boise State -2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Week 13: (6-8)-1.83 units
YTD: (55-70) -20.77 units
Early Games...
Week 14: ECU/NC State under 61(-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Both defensive lines strongly outweigh their offensive line counterparts as both offensive lines rank in the bottom 10% in line yards and opportunity rank. ECU defensive line is surprisingly ranked 24th and NC state rushing attack has been horrible. NC state is a big favorite and if they take an early lead we will surely seem them milk the clock with their 95th adjusted pace ranking. NC state will also have some suspended players from their fight with UNC including two starting tackles on their offensive line. ECU starting QB Holton Ahlers has been banged up and is listed as questionable in this game. The weather is due for some rain which will hopefully work to our favor.
California +3 (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units
California ML (+150) Risking 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Despite their offensive woes Cal is one of the teams I am most excited about in the PAC 12 because of their defense. Justin Wilcox has had a history of turning programs into defensive powerhouses and he is very familiar with the PAC 12 and has done a great job this season, If before the season you would have said that in this matchup one teams defense is ranked #29th against the run and #9th against the pass and the other’s defense is ranked #38th against the run and #104th against the pass, you would have never guessed Cal would be the former. This Stanford defense has not been playing up to their usual standards this season and has been susceptible to the run, they rank 81st in line yards, 91 in opportunity rank and 108th in stuff ranking. Hopefully Cal can run the ball with their offensive line ranking 30th in line yards. We have a strong advantage in the trenches and in the cold wet rainy weather this should give Cal enough to pull off the big upset and make this a very successful second season for Justin Wilcox. I think Cal team will also be much more motivated to win.
Akron +29.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units This is just too many points in an unusual makeup game that has no meaning for the gamecocks. Akron has had a tough out of conference schedule and has hung tough with many power five teams including beating Northwester and keeping Iowa State close. South Carolina is riddled with injuries and they had some RB’s practicing in the secondary this week and although I think they win big they won’t win by more than 30. Possible rain and cold weather also.
Adding: Fresno/Boise under 52.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Weather play and we have two teams that are ranked in the bottom 15% of adjusted pace rankings. Boise states defensive line also has a strong advantage and Fresno is very good at not giving the big play ranking 7th in isoPPP rankings. The two teams have already seen each other this year and scored 41 combined points.
Bowls: Fresno State -6 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Even before all the injuries I was leaning on Fresno State but now with all the injuries we lock it in at -6. Arizona State will not only be missing it’s top WR, N’keal Harry, that had over 1000 yards this season, but also their top 3 tacklers will most likely sit out with two of them being listed as questionable and one as doubtful. Fresno State’s weakness on offense is their rush game but Arizona State has not been good at stopping the rush ranking 99th in defensive rush S&P and Fresno State’s 16th ranked S&P pass offense should have a field day with the Sun devils 89th pass ranking…and then the injuries. What Joe Tedford has done at Fresno State is amazing and I will admit he’s a coach that was definitely under my radar and had a poor rating in my books until the last two years. He turned the Fresno State football team that went 1-11 in 2016 to 10-4 in year 1 and 11-2 in year 2, quite a remarkable feat that only few coaches have accomplished. He is 6-3 in bowl games in his career and this will be Herm Edwards’ first ever but has a squandered a 2-4 playoff record in the NFL. Fresno should win by 10.
Toledo -6 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
My favorite mismatch in this game is big advantage on the line of scrimmage for Toledo on offense vs FIU’s defensive line. Toledo ranks 4th in line yards, 4th in opportunity rank, 17th in stuff ranking, 12th in rushing S&P, and 17th in yards per rush. There is a HUGE differential mismatch as FIU’s defensive line ranks 115th in line yards, 115 in opportunity rank, 115th in stuff ranking, 114th in rush S&P ranking, and 103rd in yards per rush allowed. FIU also has a high differential in 2nd Order win totals of -1.1 which means that they outperformed in many statistics of their games yet still won. I think giving us tremendous value in this matchup is the fact that FIU is 9-2 ATS this season and Butch Davis is 7-1 ATS in bowl games. Toledo should run at will and I don’t think FIU’s sporadic offense will be able to keep up with Toledo running for 5 yards per carry every down.
Wake Forest +3 (+105) Risking 2 units to win 2.1 units
First off, I love the huge Sagarin mismatch and this game is one of the biggest with Wake Forest’s SOS ranking 53rd and Memphis’s ranking 103rd. Darrel Henderson, who rushed for 8.92 yards per carry, almost 2000 yards, and accounted for 1/3 of the team’s offensive yards will be sitting out this bowl game for Memphis. I really like Jamie Newman who stepped in after Hartman got hurt and he has lead this team in to upset victories over NC state and Duke in their last game of the season (which I called BABY!). Memphis on the other hand got blown out in their conference championship game against a first time starting backup QB they gave up season high totals to UCF’s offense and will most likely not be very motivated. Giving us value is the fact that Wake Forest is 4-8 ATS and Memphis is 8-4 ATS. Since 2005, bad ATS teams have gone 22-12-1 (64.7%) ATS when facing a team that has covered the spread in at least 50% of their games.
Adding: G-tech/Minn Over 56.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units There’s a strong differential in favor of both teams offensive lines over the opposing team’s defensive lines in this matchup both statistically and size wise. Both teams should be able to run at will and put up points in this dome game. Georgia Tech’s 18th ranked rushing S&P shouldn’t be stopped by Minnesota’s 101st s&p ranking who has really struggled against strong rushing teams giving up over 8.5 yards per carry and over 300 yards to Maryland, Illinois and Nebraska. Minnesota’s defense is also susceptible to the big play ranking 111th in IsoPPP and 64th in big play rate allowed. They will also be without their leading senior tackler Blake Cashman. Minnesota’s offense has been clicking and is coming off a huge win where they scored 37 points against Wisconsin who is ranked 43rd in defensive S&P ratings. In contrast Georgia tech’s defense is ranked 105th in defensive s&p and is allowing 28.9 points per game. Hopefully we get a few easy turnovers that leads to some quick points as option offenses tend to do and this Minnesota offense is ranked 116th in turnovers lost per game.
California -1 (-105) Risking 1.05 to win 1 units TCU is starting its 3rd string QB due to injuries, Grayson Muehlstein. He is a 4th year senior who has had 10 passing attempts in garbage time in 3 years before starting the last week of the season against Oklahoma state in their final game. Although it was an upset victory and he had decent stats for the game, it was against a typical horrible BIG 12 defense and their RBs were averaging over 5.5 yards per carry which opened up the passing game for them. I’ve already talked a lot about this Cal defense and what Justin Wilcox has done with them and turned the program around giving them their first bowl appearance in a few years. They will be more hyped and excited than TCU who is coming off a disappointing season (last year went 11-3) riddled with injuries. We should definitely see a turnover or two in this game as TCU averages 2 giveaways per game and Cal averages 2 take aways per game. Both teams are among st the worst in the league in Red Zone scoring % so expect a low scoring hard fought game.
Miami vs Wisconsin Under 47 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units Both teams will heavily rely on their run game as both teams struggle to find a QB. For Miami, Malik Rosier returns as Perry got benched for an inappropriate snap chat. Hornibrook is undergoing concussion protocol so Jack Cohan gets the start who has struggled against it’s tougher defensive teams completing only 5.1 yards per attempt against Northwestern and 3.0 yards per attempt against Penn State. This Miami defense is better than both of those teams and I think Coan will really struggle with pressure like he did against Penn State where he was sacked 5 times. Miami is one of the best in the nation at bringing pressure with over a 10% sack rate. This will be the best defensive line Wisconsin has faced. Last year I was on this under in this bowl game matchup and lost but look to redeem as the cold weather and familiarity factor will both play in our favor.
Vanderbilt ML (-178) Riskin 1.78 units to win 1 units I like Vandy to win with senior Kyle Shurmur at the helm. He has a ton of experience with his receivers and Ke’Shawn Vaughn has emerged as one of the top RBs in the SEC. He is averaging 6.95 yards per carry on 144 attempts. He should run for 150+ yards easily against this 83rd ranked defensive rushing S&P. Vandy’s offense has been in sync the last 4 weeks since Kentucky (where Vaughn did not play) averaging 37 points per game against its SEC opponents. They have won 3 of their last 4 and in their losses to UF, Kentucky, Missouri, and Notre Dame they kept the games very close. Baylor on the other hand has lost 4 of its last 6 games against a much weaker BIG 12 competition. They will also be missing their top playmaker Jalen Hurd. There’s a huge mismatch for explosiveness in favor of Vandy on both sides of the ball as their offense is ranked 27th in isoPPP and defense ranked 18th. Baylor’s in contrast ranks 112th on defense and 109th on offense. Playing it safe and laying the moneyline as I’m trying to salvage a losing season but I think it’s a very safe bet at -178 and it may very well be a blowout.
Miami -2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units The more and more I looked into this game the more I liked Miami. Warning: Miami homer but let’s look at the stats. Miami’s defense has been the best in the nation the last few weeks of the season racking up 25 TFL against Pitt and Virginia Tech, two very capable offenses. Their overall havoc rate is ranked #1 and PD to INC rate is 27th. They are ranked #4 overall only allowing 4.2 yards per play. Wisconsin’s defense has not been up to its usual standards this season and has given up 5.4 yards per play. They have been unable to get sacks or pressure ranked #107th in sack rate and 85th in overall havoc rate. Miami has a strong differential advantage on both sides of the ball in big play rate achieved and allowed. I think Miami pulls out the W in this low-scoring affair as they should be more successful on the ground than Wisconsin.
Auburn ML (-167) Risking 1.67 units to win 1 units
I like Auburn in this one as it’s a favorable matchup for the SEC team. Auburn struggles with tough defenses that bring pressure on poor little Stidham. But that is not strength of this Purdue team as they are ranked 105th in defensive sack ranking, 122nd in overall havoc ranking, 114th in TFL, and 104th in passes deflected to incompletion ranking. Auburn also has a strong advantage in size in the trenches and the adjusted line yards reflect that on both sides of the ball. Auburn should be able to run the ball on this Purdue defense that has given up over 6 yards per carry in it’s last 3 games. On offense Purdue is one-dimensional, relying entirely on the passing game and barely rushing over 3 yards per carry in its last 4 games.Kevin Steele, one of the best defensive coordinators will take advantage of this weakness in Purdue’s offense, dialing up the pressure. A sign of a great defensive coordinator can be seen in how they play call in the red zone (and use the short field to their advantage). Auburn has proven to be one of the best in the country, ranking 1st in 21-30 yards line success rate, 7th in 11-20 yard line success rate, and 1st in success rate inside the 10 yard line. Malzahn seems to always find a way to come out with a big win in these high pressure games and although his buyout options are ridiculously high there is always a chance of being let go and ruining your rep. Additionally, Purdue is 7-5 ATS this season and Auburn is 5-7 ATS, giving us value. I like the ATS but I know if I take it Auburn will win by 3 the way my season is going. The extra half unit is well worth the 3.5 points.
I have a play for the night game just waiting on the number to move....
Iowa State +2.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units This pick is mostly an eye test and a situational angle. If you’ve been following along the write-ups you would know this is an obvious pick for me as I have been riding ISU a lot and fading Washington State. Leach tends to get drunk at bowl games with a 2-7 ATS record.Giving us additional value is the fact that Washington state is 10-2 ATS this season. Teams that have covered the spread in 70% or more of their games have gone 53-66-2 (44.5%) ATS in bowl games. I’ve watched a lot of both of these teams and I think Iowa State keeps this one close and even comes out with an upset as they are the more complete team. Buy the half point if you can (was hoping it would move by kickoff but I like to post atleast 2-3 hours before kickoff for tailers) , pickmonitor right now doesn’t allow me to but when pickmonitor v2 comes out we will be able to.
Bowls YTD: 6-5 (+1.14) units
Season YTD: (63-77) -19.63 units
Virginia +5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units Virginia ML (+175) Risking 1 unit to win 1.75 units
Despite Virginia dropping 3 of its last 4 games in the ACC, I still like this game the best in the bowl season and think we can come up a good 3+ units with an upset pick.First off, South Carolina has 17 players listed as Out for this game and 4 questionable with the majority of it coming from their defense.They are incredibly banged up and Virginia is healthy as they have only 2 recent injuries. Next I LOVE the mismatch in our favor at the line of scrimmage. Virginia’s offensive line outranks South Carolina’s defensive line SUBSTANTIALLY by 59 ranks in adjusted line yards, 103 ranks in opportunity rate, 106 ranks in power rankings, and 84 ranks in stuff rankings. Those are huge numbers, let’s hope this disparity is not entirely contributed to the much more difficult SOS that South Carolina does have. As good as Jake Bentley has been, in the past I have seen him struggle with pressure. Virginia’s defense is the best at applying pressure, ranking #1 in DB havoc rate, #25 in overall havoc rate, #15 in LB havoc rate, and #1 in passes deflected to incomplete passes. South Carolina is ranked 52nd in havoc rate allowed. Their strength on defense is against the pass, ranking 15th in defensive passing efficencty rating, 27th in S&P passing defense, #19 in completion percentage allowed, and #30 in yards per pass allowed.South Carolina almost entirely relies on its passing game. Virginia is also a much more disciplined team and they have one the slowest adjusted paces, ranking 123rd as they like to control the clock and rank #32nd in Time of possession %. Playing the possession game should work well against this south Carolina team that has been incapable of doing that only possessing the ball for 42% in all of their games, ranking 129th. And Finally, Bronco Mendenhall must win this game. He has a reputation for losing bowls as he has lost his last 4 bowl games SU and ATS and South Carolina has gone 5-0-1 ATS in it’s last 6 bowl games, this type of contrarian situational angles always work to giving the underdog a few more points than they should. Did I mention Deebo was out? Cavs upset .
Notre Dame +12.5 (-109) Risking 1.64 units to win 1.5 units
Notre Dame ML (+370) Risking .5 units to win 1.85 units
This is going to be one hell of a fight. Both defenses are in the top 10 of almost all defensive S&P rankings but as many know Clemson will be missing a few key players of their defense. Notre Dame’s few injuries on their injury report date back to September so they were not significant players on this team. I’ve already talked about how much I love this Notre Dame team now that Ian Book took over they look great. Their defense is ranked 4th in Big plays allowed and Clemson has not a faced a defense that could stop their deep ball but Notre Dame’s DBs can. Notre Dame’s defense is ranked 64th in passes deflected to in completion rate which isn’t great but it’s still a lot better than ranking 119th in passes deflected to in-completion rate which is what Clemson is ranked and you surely won’t hear on ESPN. Last time these two teams faced Brian Kelly kept it close with Dabo in a 24-22 game and I think that’s the case again this week. I’m sure we’ve all heard that Dexter Lawrence will be sitting out but maybe you haven’t heard about how much this has affected their defense thus far this season. When he has been on the field, they have allowed 1.7 yards per rush, and 3.8 yards per play. When he has been off the field, they have allowed 3 yards per rush and 4.4 yards per play. There’s just too much value not to take Notre Dame ML and drop a 1.5 x units on the huge point spread.
More to Come tomorrow. Anyone know any tricks to falling asleep on christmas eve? Im burned out and cant fall asleep so excited. the thrill of the risk.
Michigan -6 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units On paper these teams are pretty evenly matched, by my eyes tell me Michigan is a much better team. Florida defense has struggled lately defending the rush and gave up 300 yards to Kentucky on the ground and 200 yards to Idaho on the ground. Florida has no receiving play makers (best receiver has 439 yards?) that will be able to get any separation from these Michigan DB’s and that’s because Felipe Franks is a mess. He was benched in the Missouri game but his backup broke his foot so he returned to the starting role. We again have the great situational angle that we had last night with UF going 8-4 ATS on the season and Michigan is 6-6 ATS. Michigan curb stomped Florida the last two years and there’s no reason to think this year will be any different.
Oklahoma vs Alabama Under 78 (-105) Risking .53 units to win .5 units This is just a contrarian night cap that I really like. Let’s see Oklahoma put up a goose egg just to prove how shitty the BIG 12 is and that they should never be allowed in the final four over an undefeated UCF team. Every situational angle screams over. Saban’s bowl games go over at a ridiculously high clip, and both teams have hit overs at ridiculously high clips. This game is going UNDER as the tinfoil hat is buzzing tonight but it’s a little dusty so only a half unit play.
This is exactly why I crumpled up and destroyed all my tinfoil hats! lol
If you've been following my thread over the years I've posted maybe 3-4 tinfoil hat specials and they've all lost in tremendous bad beats like Stanford vs UCLA two years ago. At least with my bookie I got 81, I just wanted to post this play early enough for people to follow and end up getting burned by the lowest market number they sold at. Amazing how bookies are able to move right around that number all the time.
Pittsburgh +4.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units Love this ACC dog against the PAC 12. The strengths of this Pittsburgh team lines up well against the weaknesses of this Stanford team. The most obvious, the run game, as Pittsburgh is a run first team and are good at it ranking 11th in rushing S&P. Which should be an issue for Stanford who ranks 66th against the rush in S&P. Pittsburgh offensive line outranks Stanford defensive line in every rushing category by a significant margin. Even their defensive line out ranks Stanford’s in every category because Stanford’s offensive line is ranked one of the lowest in the league, ranking 119th in line yards, 103rd in opportunity rank, 102nd in power ranking and 124th in stuff ranking. Without Bryce Love I don’t see how they rush for more than 50 yards which should spell problems for their offense. I will gladly take 4.5 points for the team that can run the ball significantly better like Pitt does in this matchup.
Missouri -9 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units You know I hate my BIG 12 and Oklahoma State is the bottom of the barrel of the Big 12. They will be without their star running back Justice Hill and a few offensive lineman. Although their sagarin SOS ratings are pretty similar but their RECENT model, which weights recent play more heavily than later games has Missouri ranked at 9th and Oklahoma State ranked at 61st as Missouri has been hot and Oklahoma State has lost 3 of it’s last 4 (two without Jutisce). We should definitely see some big plays for Missouri as Oklahoma State ranked 104th in IsoPPP defense and 108th in big plays allowed. Missouri wins easily.
Utah -7 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units I love this Utah team and am very familiar with these two teams. Utah should win this game easily. Huntley should be returning to this offense and I don’t see how Northwestern can keep up with them.Northwestern’s offense is ranked in the bottom 20% of most S&P ratings and offensive line statistics. They don’t produce big plays as they are ranked 125th in big play rate and 123rd in explosiveness ratings. This will be one of the most difficult defenses they have faced yet as Utah ranks 22nd overall on defense, 8th in overall havoc rate and 21st in opponent yards per play allowed. Northwestern’s yards per play of offense is actually .9 yards less than they allow on defense – a troublesome stat that shows that they were very fortunate to win as many as they did and were heavily outgained in yardage by many of their opponents.We also have a HUGE S&P differential in favor of Utah on special teams as they are ranked 7th and Northwestern is ranked 122nd.Kyle Wittingham knows how to get his team up for bowl games as he is 11-1 straight up and 9-3 ATS.
Final Bowls:
Iowa +7 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
LSU -7.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Kentucky/Penn State Under 46.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
UGA/Texas Over 58.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Clemson/Bama Under 59.5 (-107) Risking 2.14 to win 2 units
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