Dapper Dan Picks

[Smutbucket]

Have quite bit more writeups already completed just havent locked in yet as were hanging around some key numbers and hoping they move in my direction before locking in


Week 9

Vtech/Pitt Under 57 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Both these teams love to run the ball (both ranked in top15 of running %), which in turn sets up their whole offense. But both these teams’ defenses are some of the best run stopping defenses in the nation. Vtech is currently ranked 5th only allowing 3 yards per carry, and ranked 1st in power success rate, and 7th in stuff rate. Pitts rush defense is allowing 3.3 yards per carry on the season (Rk#18), but if you discount Georgia techs rushing option attack (which Narduzzi has always struggled with) that did 241 yards of damage on 45 carries (5.36 average) then they are actually only allowing 2.7 yards per carry. Narduzzi is a master at dialing up the pressure and bringing blitzes in passing situations, ranking 15th in sack % on passing downs, which should cause issues for the inexperienced Jerrod Evans. Despite, great numbers to this point, he has gone up against some pretty soft defenses. As long as Pitt. defense doesn’t give up too many big passing plays, which has been the vulnerability of this team, I think we stay well within the under. Vtech isn’t particularly great at the long ball, averaging just over 2 per game of 25+ yards this season so I think we’ll be good. Last year when these teams faced off it was another low scoring affair 17-13 with Pitt holding this Vtech offense to 1.89 yards per play, and Vtech held Pitt to 4.52 yards per play. Giving us some additional value on this game is the fact that Pitt is 6-1 over/under on the season, but has been largely in part to inability to stop pass heavy teams.

[Smutbucket]

Week 9:

Auburn ML (-200) Risking 2 units to win 1 units
Auburn’s offense is finally starting to get going and I wish I had jumped on them sooner. But the biggest surprise has been their dominating defense. Their defensive line has been dominant sporting 20th best rank in adjusted line yards, and 12th in adjusted sack rate, on passing downs their ranked 10th at sack rate, something ole miss will find themselves in a lot. They have 59 QB hurries on the season so far a number most teams don’t even reach by the end of the season. This plays right into ole miss’s weakness as they lost two offensive lineman last week against LSU and it showed. Not to mention of course Auburns ability to run the ball, and Ole Miss’s inability to stop the run. This is a TOP RATED play, but we’ll take the safe -200 ML. They should cover the -4.5 but I just hate that number afraid of a backdoor cover with Ole Miss’s quick scoring offense.


Clemson ML (-195) Risking .98 units to win .5 units
Talked a lot about both these teams. Take the ML for the sure money.

Duke +6.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I already talked about Dukes ability to stop this option attack under Jim Knowles. He has faced option teams often in his tenure at Duke and as of the last two years he has schemed a defense that has completely shut it down. Last year they held Gtech to 2.88 yards per carry, and rushed for 4.58 yards per carry of their own. They racked up 8 TFLs, 2 sacks, 7 QB hurries, 4 broken up passes and forced 3 fumbles. Duke is also coming off a bye week where they had extra time to prepare for it. David Cutliffe has proven to be one of the best coaching coming off a bye as he is 10-4-1 ATS off a bye at Duke. Georgia Tech is also coming off a bye, but is a measly 9-9 ATS coming off of under Paul Johnson. Duke’s strength is its rush defense, which plays into their favor in this matchup. Also they are very good at getting sacks, ranking 20th in the nation at 8.6%. GTECH’s offense has been struggling to protect the pass as they are allowing 11.34% sack % (Rk#120). If Duke can control its giveaways which have plagued them this season, we should cover this easily. Buy the half point if you can, I did for my bet with my bookie but for tracking purposes pickmonitor.com doesn’t allow me to so I want to try to keep records equivalent.

Southern Miss -16 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Marshall has been struggling to protect their QB, giving up 10 sacks and having their QB hurried 16 times in the last 3 games (against North Texas, FAU and Charlotte of all teams (3 teams ranked in bottom rankings of sack %). This Southern Miss team under new head coach Jay Hopson is very effective at getting pressure, currently sporting the 7th best sack rate at 10.27%, including a surge of 16.67% in their last 3. Not only does their pass rush heavily favor Southern Miss, but the entire defensive line numbers are heavily skewed towards Southern Miss. Marshal sports one of the worst O-lines in the nation, according to football outsiders, ranking #126 in adjusted line yards, 96th in opp rate%, 104th in power success rate, 116th in stuff rate, and 105th in adjusted sack rate. On the flip side, South Miss defensive line has been stout, ranked 52nd in adjusted line yards, 62nd in opp rate %, 4th in power success rate, 18th in stuff rate, and 3rd in adjusted sack rate. Southern Miss is also ranked 10th in team TFL with 8.1 per game which is another weakness of this Marshall team who is ranked 106th with 7 TFL allowed per game. These numbers show that Marshall should have trouble moving the ball, and their defense has been struggling as well, ranking 123rd in opp yards per play, 112 in yards per rush, 126th in yards per pass, and 97th in 3rd down conv %. All these numbers that heavily favor Southern Miss and Southern Miss has still played a harder schedule (according to TeamRankings.com) Marshall is also one of the heaviest penalized teams in the nation. Also we have a huge advantage in the kicking game as southern miss kicker has hit 11 for 11 in field goal attempts opposed to Marshall's kicker who is only hitting 50% and 4 for 8 on the season. Marshall has dominated southern miss the last few years but this year we have a whole new southern miss team with a new coaching staff and fully expect them to smash Marshall in a revenge game.

Maryland +3.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Perry Hills is back and firing on all cylinders. Last week completing 21 of 27 passes for 200 yards and 2 TDs. He is an integral part of this offense (especially when Pigrome is your backup) and they should be able to keep this within a one possession game if not win outright. Indiana looked awful last week even against a struggling Northwestern pass defense. Maryland’s biggest surprise under new head coach DJ Durkin has been their pass defense, ranked 10th in yards per pass allowing only 5.8, ranked 4th in completion % allowed at 48.3%, ranked #18th in sack % at 8.81% and 23rd in passing efficiency defense. They have only allowed 9 big passing plays of more than 25 yards. They are also holding opponents to 31% on 3rd down conv (Rk#16) and scoring on 65% of RZ scoring %, which has been a weakness of this Indiana team who is only converting on 34.86% of 3rd downs and scoring on only 70.83% of red zone opportunities (Rk#118). Maryland’s weakness on defense has been against the run, but that shouldn’t be much of an issue against this Indiana team that struggles to run and is only gaining 3.7 yards per carry (Rk#97). This is a revenge game, that Hills missed last year due to injury. Maryland could win this game outright but we’ll just take the points for now to be safe, maybe add a small ML bet on game day.

Nebraska +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin has just come off probably the toughest 3 game stretch than any team this season. Their defense is extremely banged up with numerous starters declared out including Cichy and Watt is probable. Nebraska has been coasting thru a soft schedule and are in good shape physically, with only a couple offensive lineman on the injury report but they are probably and will most likely play. They also get starting WR Westerkamp back after missing a few games due to injury. This is their biggest game of the season and Im sure they’ve had it circled all year long. They are notorious for close games and last year when Riley vs Chryst matched up head to head both in their first year of their programs, Wisconsin edged out a narrow victory 23-21. If we go down early, do not fret, as Riley this year has the best 4th qtr point differential outscoring opponents by 85 points, so worst case scenario I think we get a backdoor cover.

Tennessee -14 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Tennessee is coming off a bye after a real tough schedule. South Carolina has been awful all season and look to bring in freshman Jake Bentley for a 2nd start in hopes of sparking this offense. Last week, the beat an even more awful UMASS team by 6 by dominating the line of scrimmage and YAC with 75% of Bentleys yards coming off tunnel screens and such. That won’t happen this week and Tennessee has a significant edge on the offensive and defensive line. According to Adjusted Line Yards, Tennessee is 9th best ranked offensive line in FBS. Which should be able to push around this Gamecock defensive line who is ranked 61st in adjusted line yards, 126th on passing down yards, 119th on OPP Rate%. On the offensive side, the Gamecock line is even a larger concern who is ranked 125th in adjusted line yards, 102nd in opp rate %, 116th in stuff rate, and 108th in adjusted sack rate. I just don’t see a young Jake Bentley leading this offense to keep up with Tennessee. Tennessee wins easily.

Miami PK (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Miami’s thorn in its offense is Kaaya’s ability to handle pressure. Despite appearing to be a mobile QB, by the softest shoe string tackle, Kaaya frequently folds and takes the sack. This shouldn’t be an issue against a Notre Dame team who has struggled to get pressure, ranking 121st in sack %, 119th in adjusted sack rate and 121st in passing downs. This an old time rivalry game and must win for Richt in his new head coaching position after losing 3 straight. Hopefully Miami will get a lot of its defensive players back this week as a few were held out in last week’s lost with lingering injuries. They have a very strong secondary and should keep Notre Dame’s passing game in check and prevent the big play, so far they have only allowed 8 passes of 25 yards or more.

[Smutbucket]

Week 9:
(2x)Auburn ML (-200) 2u to win 1 u
Clemson ML (-198) 1u to win .5 u
Duke +6.5 (-108)
Southern Miss -16 (-106)
Miami PK (-106)
Tennessee -14 (-115)
Nebraska +9 (-110)
Maryland +3.5 (-106)

[Smutbucket]

Ughh....we'll get these bookiefuks next week.....every strong lean of mine hit....pisses me off...

Week 9:
Vtech/Pitt Under 57 (-107) L
(2x)Auburn ML (-200) 2u to win 1 u W
Clemson ML (-198) 1u to win .5 u W
Duke +6.5 (-108) W
Southern Miss -16 (-106) L
Miami PK (-106) L
Tennessee -14 (-115) L
Nebraska +9 (-110) W
Maryland +3.5 (-106) L

Week 9 Results: 4-5 -1.9 units

Season Total: 37-38 +1.41 units

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 8
Risked 1.08 units to win 1 OVER 49 (-108) Oakland vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Risked 1.05 units to win 1 Houston Texans -2 (-105)

[Smutbucket]

Week 10

Florida -5.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
It’s no secret anymore the woes of this Arkansas team is its offensive and defensive line. This plays directly into the favor of this Florida team. The mismatched numbers are staggering, on offense, Arkansas offensive line is ranked 122nd in adjusted line yards, 124th on standard downs, 128th in power success rate, 119th in stuff rate, 79th in adjusted sack rate, with 118th on standard downs and 50th on passing downs. Florida’s defensive line ranked 11th in adjusted line yards, 13th on standard downs, 30th in opp. Rate, 8th in stuff rate, 16th in adjusted sack rate, 1st on standard downs and 28th on passing downs. This mismatch continues with Arkansas on defense ranking 108th in adjusted line yards, 122nd on standard downs, 122nd on passing downs, 113 in opp. Rate%, 78th in power success rate, 117th in stuff rate, and 41st in adjusted sack rate. Now Florida’s offensive line is no elite class but when you’re playing against a defensive line with numbers these poor they should excel. Arkansas’s defense has also given up the most yards per rush at 6.7 (Rk#128), are allowing opponents to convert on 50% of 3rd down’s (Rk#124th) and are allowing .526 points per play (Rk#116th). Florida’s defense has only given up 3 yards per rush (Rk#5), 5.4 yards per pass (Rk#4), and .187 points per play (Rk#1) and are only allowing opponents to convert on 27.84% of 3rd downs (Rk#5). These mismatch numbers indicate Florida should win this game big and cover the spread easily. Their offensive numbers aren’t great but Luke Del Rio was injured for two starts.

Georgia Tech +10.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
For the last 3 years this game has been a close one possession type game for two teams that are familiar with each other, and I don’t see it being much different as both defenses are struggling. What I like a lot about this GTECH team this year is their ability to throw the ball better than years past. Thomas has clearly worked on his passing game and seems to be a bit faster and quicker than years past (back when he consistently ran a 4.2 in the 40) He’s completing 55% of his passes this season up from 41% last season and has been more effective averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. Over the last 3 weeks, (against some defenses probably equal caliber to UNC’s) he has completed 24 of 35 and has averaging 16 yards per attempt. UNC’s defense has been particularly vulnerable to the run with their offensive line ranking in the bottom 100 of most categories in adjusted line yards while Georgia Tech is consistently a top 10 rushing team, ranked 7th so far on the season in adjusted line yards. We also have a kicking advantage as GTECH’s kicker is 5 out of 6 on the season compared to UNC’s kicker who is 8 for 12. UNC has also been one of the most heavily penalized teams compared to Georgia tech who is one of the fewest. Take the 10.5 and maybe GTECH can even pull out the win.

[BiffTFinancial]

In Smut I trust. Working on my big money pool entry which is due at 3 pm today and couldn't decide between UF -3' vs Arky +3'. Gonna ride with you on this one, pal. BOL this weekend and thank you for the write-up!

[Smutbucket]

In Smut I trust. Working on my big money pool entry which is due at 3 pm today and couldn't decide between UF -3' vs Arky +3'. Gonna ride with you on this one, pal. BOL this weekend and thank you for the write-up!

haha thanks BiffT.

Ya I can't figure it out, everytime I pick a game I feel like the line moves tremendously in one direction or the other. I wish I had -3.5 :-(

[BiffTFinancial]

haha thanks BiffT.

Ya I can't figure it out, everytime I pick a game I feel like the line moves tremendously in one direction or the other. I wish I had -3.5 :-(

That actually was the one line that the commish of the pool had to sent, because he publishes pool lines Monday afternoon and UF/Arky was off the board at the time. Working on actual card right now, finding a lot that i like total-wise, like 14 leans at the moment. Time to narrow those down. BOL this weekend, my friend!

[Smutbucket]

That actually was the one line that the commish of the pool had to sent, because he publishes pool lines Monday afternoon and UF/Arky was off the board at the time. Working on actual card right now, finding a lot that i like total-wise, like 14 leans at the moment. Time to narrow those down. BOL this weekend, my friend!

Nice ya I'm just driving home and about to get to work hardcore on the numbers .... Only total I have a writeup already for is under in Iowa/pen state ...totals have been killing me this year ... Which is throwing me off cuz last year I was crushing totals all season ...

[Smutbucket]

Week 10 Adds:

Penn State vs. Iowa under 53.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Both of these teams are ranked in the bottom 15 of Adjusted Pace statistics and not for just this season but for each of the prior seasons under these coaching staffs the slow pace has been the norm. Both teams have very effective defenses, especially against the pass, and especially against giving up big plays. Penn State employs a bend but don’t break passing defensive philosophy and they keep everything in front of them, allowing one of the highest opponent completion %’s at 63% (Rk#103) but allowing some of the fewest yards per pass 5.9 (Rk#9). They have also only allowed 9 passes of 25+ yards on the season. Iowa is also effective at not giving up the big pass play (which is Penn State’s bread and butter) only giving up 16 on the season. They have some of the best cornerbacks in FBS including Desmond King who contributes to them only allowing 51.91% of opponent’s completions (Rk#10). I see both offenses taking their time and both offenses struggling to throw and depending on the run. Iowa’s offensive line has struggled protecting Bethard ranked 109th in sack %, which Penn State’s defense excels at ranking 27th at 7.93%. This number is higher than it should be because this Penn State team has had many big plays causing lots of their games to go over, but their defense has finally much improved from the beginning of the season and I see this game going under the total.

Texas A&M -11 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
I have already talked a lot about this Texas A&M defense and their defensive lineman; even with Miles Garret as questionable I still like this play. Texas A&M has the highest TFL per game this season at 9.6 per game. Unlike most teams they don’t rack up a bunch against their weaker opponents and have had played a tough schedule to date (Rk6th according to Team Rankings). They even racked up 12 TFL against Alabama two weeks ago and hung in their pretty well until the end. Not only are they great at TFL’s but they are 3rd in the nation at power success rate and 7th in the nation at stuff rate. This Mississippi state team will most likely be playing behind the sticks as they have been known to give a lot of TFL’s ranking 78th with 6.13 allowed per game (against a weak schedule too). They struggle at getting those short yardage situations as well as they are ranked 117th in power success rate at 66th in stuff rate. Miss. State has also struggled at converting 3rd downs only converting 33% (Rk#108) which A&M is ranked 31st at stopping opponents on 3rd down at 35%. On offense Texas A&M should have no problem moving the ball against this Miss State defense that ranked in the bottom tier of most S&P ratings except against the run, but a strong running attack is what Texas A&M thrives at so I don’t see them slowing A&M down much. They have one loss and are still ranking in the top 5 due to an extremely hard schedule. They still have a lot to play for and I don’t see them taking their foot off the pedal in this one.

Ohio State -17 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
This number is one of those numbers that are set as high as the market would allow but still not high enough, given the fact that Nebraska has only 1 loss, and just played Wiscy tough (a banged up Wiscy). Nebraska even has a higher ATS win rate than the buckeyes this season. But a deeper look at the numbers show this should be a big blowout like when Oklahoma faced Ohio State. First off, Ohio State will have a huge advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, as Ohio State’s line is ranked in the top 5 in most of football outsider’s offensive and defensive line categories. While Nebraska’s is ranked one of the worst, especially on offense as they are ranked 107th in adjusted line yards, including 102nd on passing downs and 110th on stuff rate. Categories where Ohio State on defense ranks, 2nd, 1st, and 1st. On the defensive side it’s not much better as they are ranked outside the top 50 in most categories while Ohio State again is in the top 5. Nebraska has been effective at getting sacks, something Ohio State has been struggling with as of late, but Nebraska’s front is not athletic enough or fast enough to get sacks against fast mobile QBs like Barret. (like what Prukop in Oregon did to them). Ohio State’s defense is also extremely effective at getting turnovers and no one gives the ball over more than Armstrong, especially when he’ll be in a lot of obvious passing situations. Nebraska should be a big public dog given the number and I expect the sharps to clean house on this easy night game victory.

Cincinnati +7.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I don’t see any reason why Cincinnati should not keep this game close. I already talked about Gunner Kiel and the improvement it will bring to this Cinn offense. Last week they just ran into a tough Temple team that is playing extremely well (and 9-1 ATS!!!). BYU’s weakness is it’s passing defense, allowing 8.7 yards per pass (Rk#118th) allowing 66% completion % (Rk#122nd) and 144.85 passing efficiency defense (Rk#110th). Cincinnati defense has not been that bad and is middle tiered in most rankings, they have just struggled to get off the field on 3rd and 4th down and their offense has been highly turnover prone (but against will be different with Kiel). BYU has also lost some key defensive players the last few weeks including 2 defensive lineman who are out for the season with knee injuries. Despite Taysom coming back, it’s clear he is not the same, as they are ranked #116th in yards per pass at 5.9. BYU has been dominating the turnover margin being +11 on the season, but still has only beat one team by more than 7 points (Michigan state). As long as Cincinnati takes care of the ball, I see no reason why we don’t cover. Also giving us number value in this game is the fact that BYU is 6-2 ATS and Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS.

Wake Forest vs Virgina Over 45 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
At a glance this game looks like an under bet but the more I looked into it the more I liked the over. Both defenses are susceptible to the pass. Virginias defense is extremely banged up including 4 CBs and 2 LBs. Their secondary has already been a problem for them giving up 8.2 yards per pass (Rk#101) and ranking 117th in defensive passing efficiency. Wake has been even worse allowing 8.5 yards per pass (Rk#111). Both teams are also giving up over 61% of passing completions to their opponenets. Virginia should rely on the pass which it has done all season especially given the ineffectiveness of its run game. Wake is looking for a big win to be bowl eligible, and Mendenhall is playing to save face after only 2 wins on the season thus far.

[Smutbucket]

how many games am I going to lose my starting QB in the middle of the game? so far Ive counted 5. bad beats I count 3 others. so thats +8 units I should really be on the season


Week 10 Results: 2-5 -3.33 units

Season Total: 39-43 -1.92 units


we'll get them next week fellas. adapt. overcome.

[Smutbucket]

judging by the names of the teams on my card. Im fuking crazzy today

NFL Week 9
Risked 1.23 units to win 1 Cleveland Browns +7.5 -123 vs Dallas Cowboys
Risked 1.19 units to win 1 Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 -119 vs Kansas City Chiefs
Risked 1.03 units to win 1 San Francisco 49ers +4.5 -103 vs New Orleans Saints

[Smutbucket]

Week 11
Auburn -10 (-106) Risking 2.12 units to win 1 units
Auburn is the real deal on offense and defense. On offense it’s their rushing attack, which despite having injuries to some key players, is ranked 12th in the nation with 5.6 yards per rush, and averaging almost 300 yards per game. This in turn opens up their highly effective passing game, which is ranked 8th in completion % at 68%, ranked 13th in yards per pass at 8.8 and 18th in passing efficiency rating. Although UGA rushing defense is currently ranked #19th in allowing only 3.5 yards per rush, but a closer look at their schedule will show why. They have just stacked the box and forced teams who couldn’t throw to try to throw on them. Their stats are heavily padded against teams like Vanderbilt, UF, Missouri, Tennessee, Nichols state, who can not throw the ball downfield well. But have been gashed by teams on the ground like UNC, Ole Miss, and Kentucky, who combined rushed for 5.83 yards per rush against them. Their pass defense has been very ineffective as well. But I expect the real problem will be on Georgia offensive side of the ball. They have struggled all year with pressure, and this Auburn team is one of the best in the nation under DC Kevin Steele at bringing it. They average 8.1 QB hurries per game, 5.88 passes broken up, and ranked 55th in adjusted sack rate. Eason is not the type of QB who can be hurried and be successful. Their offensive line in the run game has been even worse, ranking 106th in adjusted line yards and the lower half of most of offensive line statistics while Auburn defensive line is top 20 line according to adjusted line yards and most defensive line statistics. Auburn has been a money team all season and I wish I had jumped on the bandwagon sooner but I expect them to win easily here and we will most likely be playing them again in two weeks when they play bama. This is a TOP RATED pick and TOP RATED picks are 5-0 this season.

South Carolina +11.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Probably one of the most impressive new starting QBs I have seen is Bentley. At first, I was skeptical because of his youth, but watching him in the Tennessee game made me a believer. Tennessee had decided in that game they were going to bring pressure on every down and as much as possible against Bentley, which he handled with ease and is currently averaging a 73% completion % on the season and averaging 8.44 yards per carry with no INTs. Although, South Carolinas offensive numbers are ranked pretty low for the season, they have dynamically changed in the last 3 weeks. Florida offense is ridiculously bad, and if you discount all their defensive touchdowns, then they are not even reaching 20 points per game, considering their schedule, that number is awful.

[Smutbucket]

Sorry Fellas No time for writeups this week. Here is the entire card:


Week 11:
(2x) Auburn -10 (-106) Risking 2.12 units to win 2 units
South Carolina +11.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
California +14.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Iowa +21.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Oregon +3 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
LSU -7 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
Navy -2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
USC vs Wash Under 62 (-127) Risking 1.27 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Nfl:
Broncos +3 (-109) risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Week 11 : 3-4 -2.39 units
Season Total: 42-47 -4.31 units


NCAAF Week 12

Miss. State -2 (-106) Risking 2.12 units to win 2 units
Arkansas’s defenses struggles mightily at stopping the zone-read. Teams like TCU, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Auburn have gashed this defense for well over 6 yards per carry on the ground. Teams like Auburn and LSU just out-powered them at the line of scrimmage, rushing for over 7.5 yards per carry each. Well in comes Mississippi State who not only has one of the top offensive lines but is more than capable of running the zone read with dual threat QB, Nick Fitzgerald. Arkansas defense has allowed more yards per rush than any other team, and Miss. State is ranking 29th averaging 5.1 yards per rush. Arkansas offense has also struggled to run the ball, which should continue against a Miss. State teams defensive line who is ranked 20th in adjusted line yards. The run game for Arkansas is crucial for the entire offense as they love the play-action more than most teams. Arkansas has also averaged 2.0 giveaways per game ranking #108th in the league. This is a TOP RATED picks and should be 2x your normal bet.

Baylor -1.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Baylor loses starting QB Seth Russell, but IMO has been jittery and unimpressive on the season. In comes true freshman Zach Smith. His high school film and brief downs in college show sparks of potential as he has good size, mobility and footwork in the pocket, and a big accurate arm. He should be able to do well with the weapons around him and against a Kansas State defense that has been very susceptible to the pass, giving up 8.7 yards per attempt (Rk#118), a 68.06% compl % (Rk#127) and have struggled to get to the QB, 5.88 sack% (rank #70). On the other side, Kansas state has struggled to throw the ball down the field, ranking #112 in yards per pass averaging just 6 yards, 55.71 completion % (Rk #91), and giving up a 7.98 sack % (Rk#100). Baylors defensive line is one of its strength especially again the pass racking up a 7.22 sack% (Rk#33). Baylor has won this matchup the last 4 years and have won easily by atleast 7 points every season. My tinfoil hat radar detector is also going off in this matchup as Baylor is a small home dog despite losing its starting QB last week and Kansas state coming off a bye under snyder is 14-5 ATS. This is a big matchup for both teams and It should be a close game but I see baylors edge on defense allowing them to come out with the win.

Northwestern -1.5 (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units
Northwestern defense struggled early on the season but have made big strides over the last few games. Over the last 4 games, (playing Indiana, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Purdue) Northwestern has only allowed 1 passing TD, 6 INTS, 17 broken up passes and allowed only 5.8 yards per pass. They are finally returning to last year’s dominant form. Although Minnesota’s rush defense is only allowing 3.49 yards per rush on the season, if you look closer at their schedule you would understand why. Their last 5 games have been against some pretty piss poor competition, including Maryland, (without Hills) Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, and Nebraska (with a banged up Tommy). Both teams defensive lines are amongst the top 25 tier of teams in most advanced statitcal categories, while their offensive lines are amongst the bottom of the league. Northwestern offense has really taken off too under the leadership of Thorson. I am not worried this being an away game as Northwestern is 4-0 ATS away and Minnesota is 1-5 ATS at home this season.

Iowa -9.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
There’s no reason Iowa should not dominate this game easily. According to SP Ratings, Iowa outranks Illinois by over 100 in rushing SP which is the key to Iowa’s offense. On defense its more of the same as Illinois is one of the worst teams throwing the ball and Iowa ranked #24. In fact, In all S+P advanced statistics, Iowa easily out matches Illinous except for defensive rushing SP where Iowa ranks 71st and Illinois ranks, 64th. But their rushing defense held Michigan to 98 yards last week, and have done well against most teams, although struggling against certain teams like Penn State which makes their stats appear much worse then they are. Iowa’s one struggle has been in giving protection to Beathard to throw the ball, but Illinois defense isn’t particularly good in at applying pressure. They are successful at getting a high adjusted sack rate in standard downs, but have an atrocious sack rate in passing downs. Which should not play much of a factor if Iowa is running the ball all over this defense like it should. I expect Iowa to come in and win big after a huge upset win last week.

Indiana +25 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Last year, Harbaugh and this Michigan team did not have answer for this Indiana offense who went for 527 total yards and 5.92 yards per carry. Both teams moved the ball efficiently in a double OT game. Michigan is extremely banged up not only losing Speight, but new starting CB behind injured Clark, Stribling and Starting Safety Hall is listed as probable. Indiana has kept it close with the best including Ohio State and I fully expect their improved defense to keep this one close as well. This is just too many points and we should cover easily.

Virginia Tech +2.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

Virginia Team Total Over 21.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[SlickRick1382]

good luck today Smut

[Smutbucket]

Nfl Week 11
Risked 2.3 units to win 2 OVER 53 -115 vs Indianapolis Colts/Titans
Risked 1.09 units to win 1 Miami Dolphins +1 -109

[Smutbucket]

Happy Thanksgiving fellas. Lets bust out of this losing streak.

Week 12 Results: 3-4 -2.42 units
NCAAF total: 45-51 -6.73 units

Texas A&M +7.5 (-119) Risking 1.19 units to win 1 units
Hopefully either Knight or Hubenak start, if either of them start I like our chances a lot. LSU offense has struggled against better defenses and tough defensive lines. Something this Texas AM team certainly excels at despite their injuries. Their injuries on the defensive side are mainly in the DBs, but they have many capable replacements who have seen many snaps the last few weeks. Regardless, LSUs passing game is not something they are great at either with Danny Etling throwing the ball. Ive talked a lot about these two teams, Ive watched a lot of their games over the last few weeks. I am confident in getting a TD +.

Notre Dame +17 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Sure USC has been thriving and putting up massive numbers against PAC 12 defenses but like I constantly bring up in handicapping, SOS is everything because tough competition is how teams improve and develop. USC has been playing soft defense after soft defense in the PAC 12 and yes I consider Washington and UCLAs defenses soft as their gauge is once again the PAC 12. Meanwhile Notre Dame has played teams from a variety of conferences and despite none of their opponents being ranked, they have played a tough schedule for Notre Dame’s standards. Last season, in Helton vs Kelly’s first matchup, Notre Dame won by 10. In all of Notre Dame’s losses they have remained competitive and I expect that to be the case in this one. This line may seem a bit high but the fact that the ATS records of ND is 4-7 and the ATS record of USC is 7-4 is probably attributing to it, giving us some value.

Nebraska vs Iowa Under 41.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units
This is game where they can’t put a low enough number. 1st off the game will be played in freezing cold Iowa with most likely heavy winds. Nebraska has a banged up Tommy Armstrong and backup Fyfe, but either way this Iowa defense has shutdown Tommy in the past and I expect them to do the same here if he plays. Tommy is sporting three different injuries to his hamstring, ankle, and that concussion he took a few weeks ago at Ohio State. The strategy on how to stop this Iowa offense is obvious for most foes in the Big 10. Stack the box, they have no receivers that can beat you deep or create separation so don’t let them run. Two starting offensive lineman are banged up and questionable to an already weak offensive line. Also Iowa’s 3rd highest receiver in yards, its TE, Kittle, is injured and questionable as well. I expect both teams to struggle to move the ball on the ground or in the air. Both teams are hitting UNDERS at a very high percentage this season, and both teams are pretty low amongst the pace of play statistics with Iowa being ranked 123rd which will likely lead to Nebraska running a slow tempo, especially if they are unsuccessful early on moving the ball in the game.

NC State +11 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This is a rivalry game that has always been competitive close games (at least the ones NC State has loss). Last year North Carolina ran all over NC state averaging 9.12 yards per carry, but still only managed to win by 11. But this is a different NC state team this year, who are holding teams to a 3.2 yards per rush (Rk#8th) even though having faced off against Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and Miami. They also are averaging almost 7 TFL per game ranked 29th, against a UNC team that has allowed 6 per game (Rk#75th) . UNC defense on the other hand is ranked 94th in TFL at 5.3 per game and NC State is only allowing 5.2 per game (Rk #41). North Carolinas defense has struggled to tackle and make plays. North Carolina’s offensive line has been shaken up having lost two senior starters since the beginning of the season and they should struggle against this defensive front much tougher than most of the teams they have faced.

[Smutbucket]

There will be more additions tomorrow

Week 13 Additions:
TCU +3.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 unit to win 1 units
In the last two years, when Gary Patterson has squared off with Charlie Strong, it has been utter domination on the horned frogs side and I see this trend continuing with a disheveled texas team. Texas has struggled sacking quick elusive QBs like Kenny Hill who should be able to find open receivers for big plays against this weak secondary who has allowed 33 plays of 25 + yards. TCU ran into a very good Oklahoma state team last week and were underprepared, that won’t be the case this week. TCU defense has been elite holding opponents to 3.8 yards per rush, and sacking opponents 8.93% sack rate (Rk#11 and 9th in adjusted sack rate) which should be a big issue for this Texas team who have their center and right guard, listed as probable in this game as they were banged up last week. Not to mention even with their current offensive line they are ranked 112th in adjusted sack rate, giving up 4 sacks last week to Kansas. Also Malik Jefferson, Texas’s starting LB and one of its leading tacklers for the last two seasons in questionable after having a concussion last week. TCU is perfectly healthy and should be efficient at picking apart this defense like they were last year averaging 7.55 yards per play, or in 2014 averaging 5.66 yards per play against Texas. Meanwhile Texas averaged 4.14 yards in 2014 against TCU, and even worse last year at 3.96 yards per play in a 50-7 blowout by TCU.

Vanderbilt +7.5 (+102) Risking 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Vanderbilt has been playing a bit better from the beginning of the season. Their defense is as strong as ever but their offense is starting to show some life. They have been showing a bit of a faster tempo offense and it resulted in 38 points last week which is the highest of the Derek mason era. Shurmur is looking much improved and they have a stable of running backs to bring into the game and starting to hand the ball off more to Darrius Sims who is averaging 8 yards per carry. They should run at will against this Tennessee front that has slowly deteriorated into one of the leagues worse (mainly due to injuries). They have lost many DLs, DBs, and LBs including 3 starters which has resulted in allowing one of the leagues worst 5.5 yards per carry (Rk#117). Vanderbilt is familiar with mobile QBs and were effective at shutting down Shea Patterson last week by containing him with a spy all game. They should implement a similar offense and allow their superior secondary to shut down the offense. Dobbs is not a very accurate thrower down the field and will allow these corners to play tight. Lock in now at 7.5 while you can at + money.

[Smutbucket]

Anyone else wanting to pull the trigger badly on Arizona state but terrified to do so ? Pac 12 Friday night and reeks of trap

[Smutbucket]

Todays Games:
Notre Dame +17 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Penn State -11 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Vanderbilt +7.5 (+102) Risking 1 unit to win 1.02 units
(.5x)Vanderbilt ML (+274) Risking .5 units to win 1.37 units
Mich vs Ohio State under 45 (-107) Risking 1.07 unit to win 1 units
FSU -7.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

[SlickRick1382]

Michigan / Ohio State game should of basically been over.

Horrible penalty by Michigan on 3rd and long to extend the drive ....

After running through Michigan to 1st and goal looks like another FG to tie the game ...

[Smutbucket]

Ya not to mention 2 missed 20 yard fgs ...before game time there was probably like. 10% that game was going over the total of 45 ...and every crazy circumstance to make that 10 % probability hit.. Defensive tds ... Short fields...going for it on own 20 yard line....been getting crushed by bar beats all season... Breaks will come back around in our favor eventually ... I hope ...still a lot of football to be played to recover from being down 6-7 unit's ...:l

[SlickRick1382]

and then a PAT blocked by USC to keep Notre Dame from atleast pushing (I would of won, had the hook)

insane

[Smutbucket]

and then a PAT blocked by USC to keep Notre Dame from atleast pushing (I would of won, had the hook)

insane

haha ya....I was watching. Their was 3 non-offensive TD's in that game by USC. Hard to cap special teams and when players just dont give a penetrate. At the end of the game with 1 minute left Notre Dame actually went for two and failed on a god awful option play. As if they had coverted for two they could actually have a chance at the game....fml...but hey positive week is a positive week

[Smutbucket]

Week 13 Results: 6-4 +2.01
Season Total: -4.72 units

Despite a couple more bad beats last week we have overcome the losing streak. Sorry fellas no writeups this week but will be putting them together for the bowl games as we crawl into the Positive.

Week 14
Oklahoma State +11 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Virginia Tech +10.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin ML (-150) Risking 1.5 units to win 1 units
Baylor +17.5 (-104) Risking .52 units to win .5 units
Kansas State +4 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

More Bowl Picks will be coming.....These are for the upcoming games the next few days

Best of Luck.

Boston College/Maryland Under 43.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Both teams are ranked in the bottom 30 of Pace of Play statistics. Both teams run the ball at a very high percentage, which will also keep the clock moving. Maryland normally has a potent rushing attack but is riddled with offensive injuries and plays to the strength of this Boston College defense that is very effective at stopping the run. Boston College has also one of the best pass rushes, which Maryland struggles at especially in passing situations. Despite Maryland’s poor defense, Boston College has one of the most bland and predictable offenses in college football, which Maryland should be amply prepped for. Both teams have struggled to put up any points against their tougher competitive defenses and despite this game being in a dome I expect this to be a low scoring affair.

Vanderbilt +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Vanderbilt ML (+190) Risking .5 to win .95
If you’ve been following the write-ups you know I have been starting to ride the Vanderbilt bandwagon. I like them a lot in this spot with points, as their offense has been really explosive the last few weeks. Shurmur has been developing nicely but more so their receivers have stepped up and are making the plays, catching everything throw in in their direction. The strength of this NC State team is their front and not their secondary so Vanderbilt should move the ball and play the deep ball, which has been so effective for them lately. They struggled tackling against Tennessee but that was against much better athletes and is not ordinary of Derek Mason’s defensively minded teams. I think we have a pretty strong strength of schedule edge with Vanderbilt in the SEC over NC State, as well as NC State has been on the down trend after a strong start and then losing 5 of its last 7 games, while this Vanderbilt team is clearly improving. NC State is also 0-4 against their tougher opponents who are ranked in the top 30 of SOS.

Texas A&M ML (-140) Risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Texas A&M has struggled as of lately but can mainly be attributed to injuries. Their defense is healthy and Trevor Knight should be in much better shape after a month rest. He is a proven veteran who can handle the big games. I think Kansas State will struggle with the defensive line of Texas A&M as they struggle with pass protection and should cause problems for their offense. I do not expect this weak Kansas State secondary to slow down this potent offense attack at all. Once again we have a HUGE strength of schedule mismatch as Kansas State plays in the BIG 12 while Texas AM is in the SEC. Also Sumlin is one of the better strategic coaches when given time to prepare as he is 4-2 ATS in bowl games, while Bill Snyder is one of the worst, at 5-12 ATS in bowl games. Take the ML for the safe win. Kansas State is also 0-4 against Top 30 teams on the season, struggling against their tougher competition.

Indiana +7.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
If you were not aware, Kyle Whittingham is the best coach in bowl preparation as he has gone 7-2 ATS over the years as a head coach, but in this case I think its causing this Utah team to be a little overvalued. Utah has 8 wins but it’s been in a laughable PAC 12 conference, if they had played the schedule Indiana played they would be lucky to have 5 wins. I am not too concerned with Tom Allen becoming the new head coach, as he is largely responsible for turning around this terrible Indiana defense last year into a very respectable and strong front. The players should respond well under him as the head coach. Their defense is a top 25 team in almost every category including TFL, completion %, yards per play and they should keep this game close no problem.


Wake Forest +11.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Lots of reasons to like Wake Forest here despite the skewed stats that heavily favor this Temple team. Mark Rhule has of course left and in steps new interim head coach Ed Foley, who despite having been around this Temple team for a few years, has a 7-15 head coaching record. I do not expect this Temple team to play up to motivation and the fact that they are 12-1 ATS plays into our favor as they are overvalued and its very rare to see a team to go 13-1 ATS. Not to mention the strength of schedule of Temple is according to my rankings in the bottom 25 in college football. Wake has played much tougher competition and that’s why you can throw-out most of the stats in this one. Teams with interim head coaches have hit at about a 47% ATS rate since 2003. Not a big edge but every situation is different and I’m sure odds makers usually adjust accordingly but this is the team that has been more undervalued than any other team all season. Lets take Wake and the points.

Northwestern +5.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 unit
This is just too many points for a Pitt team that has been pretty awful on defense this season. They are also very banged up with some key DB and DLs listed as questionable for the bowl game. If Narduzzi wants to bring pressure like he always does, Thorson has been shown to handle it well lately with a quick release and mobility with his legs. Justin Jackson should gash pitt on the ground as well if they want to play that game. Pitt’s offense relies on running the ball and setting up the play action, which should be difficult against this northwestern front. Northwestern is also one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with the least penalties. Look for this to be a one score game.

2 Team ML Parlay (-120). Boise State (-280) and Wisconsin (-285) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Keep this short and sweet. Wisconsin playing western Michigan with one of the largest SOS gaps between any two teams. Boise State is playing a Baylor team that is shambles right now and has lost 6 straight. The Big 12 has the worst ATS mark in recent years against other conferences. This should be an easy 2-team ML parlay cash. Baylor is also one of the most heavily penalized teams this season while Boise is one of the least.

[Smutbucket]

For Simplicity:


2016-17 Bowl Picks:
Boston College/Maryland Under 43.5 (-107)
Vanderbilt +4.5 (-110)
(.5x)Vanderbilt ML (+190)
Texas A&M ML (-140)
Indiana +7.5 (-125)
Wake Forest +11.5 (-108)
Northwestern +5.5 (-108)
2 Team ML Parlay: Boise State + Wisconsin (-120)


More to come....

[Smutbucket]

Added Bowls:
Virginia Tech -7 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma State +2.5 (+105) Risking 1 units to win 1.05 unit
North Carolina +2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Michigan -7 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Georgia +3 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units


A lot of big games on Saturday and Monday with a few top rated picks will be coming......

[Smutbucket]

Final Bowl Additions: might add one or two later but doubt it

(2x) Louisville +3.5 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
(2x) Auburn +3 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
(2x) Iowa +3 (+105) Risking 2 units to win 2.1 units
Penn State +7 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Clemson +2.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Clem/Ohio State Under 58.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Washington U +14 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

2016-17 Bowl Picks:
Boston College/Maryland Under 43.5 (-107) LOSS -1.07
Vanderbilt +4.5 (-110) LOSS -1.1
(.5x)Vanderbilt ML (+190) LOSS -.5
Texas A&M ML (-140) LOSS -1.4
Indiana +7.5 (-125) WIN +1
Wake Forest +11.5 (-108) WIN +1
Northwestern +5.5 (-108) WIN +1
2 Team ML Parlay: Boise State + Wisconsin (-120) LOSSS -1.2
Virginia Tech -7 (-110) WIN + 1
Oklahoma State +2.5 (+105) WIN +1
North Carolina +2 (-105) PUSH
Michigan -7 (+100) LOSS -1
Georgia +3 (-113) WIN +1
(2x) Louisville +3.5 (-110) Risking LOSS -2.2
(2x) Auburn +3 (-110) LOSS -2.2
(2x) Iowa +3 (+105) LOSS -2.2
Penn State +7 (-105) WIN +1
Clemson +2.5 (-108) WIN +1
Clem/Ohio State Under 58.5 (-107) WIN +1
Washington U +14 (-106) LOSS -1.06


Bowls : 9-10 -4.93 units


Argh. A losing Season. We'll be back next year with a vengeance. Just had too much life shit going on this year and the books won the battle but we are winning the war and the last time we had a losing season, we bounced back stronger and smarter than ever hitting 60% ATS.


Championship Additions:
(2x) Clemson +6.5 (-105) Risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
Clemson ML (+210) Risking 1 unit to win 2.1 units

Buy the point obviously if you can, I do with my bookies for all of these type of situations but pickmonitor.com, which I use for tracking purposes does not allow me to soo....

[Smutbucket]

Bowls : 11-10 -.83 units

2016-2017 Season Total: 65-67 (-5.61 units)

onward and upward....had a lot of shit going on in real life during this season buts it no excuse. still have the best return over the last 5 years than any other handicapper Im aware of (let me know if you know of one better than +28 units) Next year we will come back more improved from the losses we took this season....will work on an in-depth season break down later this month....