Thanks Fellas!
Week 4 Card: Another Batch will be released Saturday Morning
UConn -4 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Although this UConn team’s offense has struggled the last few years, they are starting to gain some traction. They return 10 starters on offense, including QB Bryan Sherrifs who is a mobile dual threat QB, who should be able to rack up some yards against this slow Syracuse defense. Head Coach, Bob Diaco, is a strong defensive minded coach who has won the Broyles award in ’12 for his outstanding defense at Notre Dame that only allowed 12.8 ppg. His defensive implementation showed significant improvements last year in his 2nd year, despite having a horrible offense. Let’s hope this offense comes to life as 2nd year OC, Frank Verducci, has an experienced team back that should be familiar with his playbook. Syracuse had some key injuries on defense last week, including starting strong safety, Antwan Cordy, his backup, Devon Clarke, and CB, Juwan Dowels. On the other side we have a Syracuse team with a whole new coaching staff that will take time to adjust. Dino Babers has had some experience turning around bad programs but not in the first year and not in such a tough ACC conference that he has to face this season. Babers has been trying to install a quick snap up tempo offense, which will not be a good matchup if they start slow like they have against this clock controlling slow paced offense of U Conn. If they don’t get off to a good start, U Conn will surely wear down their depleted defense. Starting Syracuse QB, Eric Dungey has not had a lot of starting experience against good defenses and has struggled in the few he has faced. Syracuse has allowed 7.6 TFL (Rk#106) per game, and should give up a number more against a solid U Conn front. U Conn is 0-3 ATS to this point and very rarely do you see these types of trends continue as odds makers over adjust when number disproportionately lean to one side so this is giving us some value. The line has been all over the place from -6 to -3. Upset that I was unable to lock in at -3, I settled at -4 and do not think it will get any better by game time.
Florida +6.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Another good spot to fade this over-rated Tennessee team; I have already talked a lot about the shittyness of Dobbs and this team so let’s talk about UF. UF will be the best defense this team has faced. They literally lead the league in a large number of defensive statistical categories (Rk#1) in all of the following categories, opponent yards per play 2.3, opponent yards per rush 1.3, opponent points per game 4.7, opponent points per play 0.084, and sack % at 23.19%. They are only ranked 10th vs. the pass allowing 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Albeit this is all against Umass, North Texas, and Kentucky, but at the same time these are not FCS teams, and these numbers are overwhelmingly good. Geoff Collins Defensive Coordinator enters his 2nd year with 6 returning starters on a defense that only allowed 18.3 ppg and 4.65 (Rk#8) in yards per play despite having an inept offense on the field. Giving us some additional value on this bet is the injury of starting QB for Florida, Jack Del Rio, but his backup Austin Appelby is more than capable senior backup with his fair share of experience we can rely on. Although his numbers from Purdue are not so glamorous, much of it can be attributed to a poor team and coaching at Purdue as a whole. Tennessee’s offense has also fumbled 18 times this season and recovered 15 times on their offense, unprecedented numbers of fortunate breaks that will not continue. We take the superior defense with this many points against a struggling QB all day long. If you can buy the half point (pickmonitor.com does not allow me to buy points for tracking purposes). But lock it in when you can because I feel like this line will drop by game time. The last two years this game has been decided by 1 point, which makes this line a little suspicious but is probably attributed to a market heavily betting Tennessee thanks to ESPN pundits.
Auburn +3.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Gus Malzahn has finally not given the ball to Jeremy Johnson in the last two games. At the end of the Texas A&M game he even brought in James Franklin III and he provided enough spark in their offense to score a TD at the end of the game. This offense is not that bad, it’s just slow developing and lots of movement in the backfield which was a recipe for disaster against Miles Garret, Daeshon Hill and others that racked up 13 TFLs last game. I have to believe they win this one at home against this weak LSU team. They were able to rush for 4.37 yards per rush against TexasA&M despite all the sacks and TFL that are deducted from these numbers (why sacks are deducted from rush stats, we’ll never know) and racked up 26 first downs. In the last 3 years between these two teams, Auburn has been able to run the ball, rushing for 4.86 yards per carry and 671 total yards since Gus joined the Tigers. Last year they faced LSU early on in the season when J. Johnson was still starting, which led to a large blowout and a revenge scenario this year. Granted Fournette and this LSU team trampled on Auburn for 411 yards and 8.6 yards per carry too but Auburn defense has made big strides this season with its new DC. The biggest factor in this game will be the struggling LSU offense and more specifically their offensive line. They really struggled to move the ball last week even against a weak miss state defense, only passing for 71 yards. Their offensive line is very banged up with 3 of the 5 starters questionable for this game. I expect them to rotate often like they have been causing issues in the backfield. Take Auburn as the home dog and the points and expect a close game here. LSU has not been a good road team for the last 3 years against the SEC they are 4-7.
Iowa -12.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Iowa lost last week to North Dakota State. An over-reaction would be saying this Iowa team is garbage and lost to a FCS team. In case you didn’t follow FCS football, let me give you some insight on this team. Since 2011, North Dakota State has won every national championship at the FCS level, that’s 5 straight years. They’ve been upsetting underprepared FBS teams all along the way. Iowa is a powerhouse team and it all starts with their amazing QB, CJ Beathard, who is easily top 5 college QBs and gets no recognition from the media. He was pretty banged up midway through the season last year and his performance dropped a bit, but hes still one of the best. They should have no problem moving the ball against a soft Rutgers defense. Their offense has consistently improved over the last 3 years and has been productive thus far, averaging 7 yards per play (Rk#11), 6.3 yards per rush (Rk#7), and 8.4 yards per pass (Rk#34) against FBS opponents. Beathard has thrown only 1 INT in the last 3 games. On the other side Rutgers comes in with a whole new coaching staff coming off a 4-8 season. Their offense has sputtered implementing its new spread attack averaging 4.9 yards per pass (Rk#118), and 3.9 yards per rush (Rk#81). Iowa’s defense returns 8 starters to a defense that ranked #18 in defensive pass efficiency allowed. CB Desmond King is one of the best in the country and won the Thorpe Award last year. I see no reason why Iowa should not cover this spread and think we are receiving some value since they lost to a ND State last week.
2 Team Parlay (-120): Nebraska ML (-288) + Ole Miss ML (-270). Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Nebraska wins this revenge game hands down. Last year despite dominating the game against northwestern they lost by 2. They controlled the clock and out possessed northwestern by almost double. This year, Nebraska is in its second year under head coach mike riley with 15 returning starters and is much improved. Northwestern has appeared to have taken a step backwards. Their defense looks nowhere nearly as aggressive and Clayton Thorson continues to struggle to connect with his receivers. Georgia has been squeaking by much inferior opponents with their struggling offense and even the best defenses are giving up points to this very potent ole miss offense. Their offensive line is a joke, struggling to give time to Eason even when they have max protection and are only being rushed by 3-4 guys. Georgia will not be able to keep up with Ole Miss and Ole Miss is 1-2 after facing some tough opponents. This is a rare 2 team ML parlay for me, you can also tease it and pretty much get the same value, this just worked out a little better for my book since Nebraska was at 8.5 now. Pickmonitor does not allow me to make parlay selections for their tracking purposes so I simply risked about 1.4 units per bet to win .5 unit on each bet but a parlay is a much smarter bet option for this scenario than my 2 separate bets.
Week 4 Card: Another Batch will be released Saturday Morning
UConn -4 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Although this UConn team’s offense has struggled the last few years, they are starting to gain some traction. They return 10 starters on offense, including QB Bryan Sherrifs who is a mobile dual threat QB, who should be able to rack up some yards against this slow Syracuse defense. Head Coach, Bob Diaco, is a strong defensive minded coach who has won the Broyles award in ’12 for his outstanding defense at Notre Dame that only allowed 12.8 ppg. His defensive implementation showed significant improvements last year in his 2nd year, despite having a horrible offense. Let’s hope this offense comes to life as 2nd year OC, Frank Verducci, has an experienced team back that should be familiar with his playbook. Syracuse had some key injuries on defense last week, including starting strong safety, Antwan Cordy, his backup, Devon Clarke, and CB, Juwan Dowels. On the other side we have a Syracuse team with a whole new coaching staff that will take time to adjust. Dino Babers has had some experience turning around bad programs but not in the first year and not in such a tough ACC conference that he has to face this season. Babers has been trying to install a quick snap up tempo offense, which will not be a good matchup if they start slow like they have against this clock controlling slow paced offense of U Conn. If they don’t get off to a good start, U Conn will surely wear down their depleted defense. Starting Syracuse QB, Eric Dungey has not had a lot of starting experience against good defenses and has struggled in the few he has faced. Syracuse has allowed 7.6 TFL (Rk#106) per game, and should give up a number more against a solid U Conn front. U Conn is 0-3 ATS to this point and very rarely do you see these types of trends continue as odds makers over adjust when number disproportionately lean to one side so this is giving us some value. The line has been all over the place from -6 to -3. Upset that I was unable to lock in at -3, I settled at -4 and do not think it will get any better by game time.
Florida +6.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Another good spot to fade this over-rated Tennessee team; I have already talked a lot about the shittyness of Dobbs and this team so let’s talk about UF. UF will be the best defense this team has faced. They literally lead the league in a large number of defensive statistical categories (Rk#1) in all of the following categories, opponent yards per play 2.3, opponent yards per rush 1.3, opponent points per game 4.7, opponent points per play 0.084, and sack % at 23.19%. They are only ranked 10th vs. the pass allowing 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Albeit this is all against Umass, North Texas, and Kentucky, but at the same time these are not FCS teams, and these numbers are overwhelmingly good. Geoff Collins Defensive Coordinator enters his 2nd year with 6 returning starters on a defense that only allowed 18.3 ppg and 4.65 (Rk#8) in yards per play despite having an inept offense on the field. Giving us some additional value on this bet is the injury of starting QB for Florida, Jack Del Rio, but his backup Austin Appelby is more than capable senior backup with his fair share of experience we can rely on. Although his numbers from Purdue are not so glamorous, much of it can be attributed to a poor team and coaching at Purdue as a whole. Tennessee’s offense has also fumbled 18 times this season and recovered 15 times on their offense, unprecedented numbers of fortunate breaks that will not continue. We take the superior defense with this many points against a struggling QB all day long. If you can buy the half point (pickmonitor.com does not allow me to buy points for tracking purposes). But lock it in when you can because I feel like this line will drop by game time. The last two years this game has been decided by 1 point, which makes this line a little suspicious but is probably attributed to a market heavily betting Tennessee thanks to ESPN pundits.
Auburn +3.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Gus Malzahn has finally not given the ball to Jeremy Johnson in the last two games. At the end of the Texas A&M game he even brought in James Franklin III and he provided enough spark in their offense to score a TD at the end of the game. This offense is not that bad, it’s just slow developing and lots of movement in the backfield which was a recipe for disaster against Miles Garret, Daeshon Hill and others that racked up 13 TFLs last game. I have to believe they win this one at home against this weak LSU team. They were able to rush for 4.37 yards per rush against TexasA&M despite all the sacks and TFL that are deducted from these numbers (why sacks are deducted from rush stats, we’ll never know) and racked up 26 first downs. In the last 3 years between these two teams, Auburn has been able to run the ball, rushing for 4.86 yards per carry and 671 total yards since Gus joined the Tigers. Last year they faced LSU early on in the season when J. Johnson was still starting, which led to a large blowout and a revenge scenario this year. Granted Fournette and this LSU team trampled on Auburn for 411 yards and 8.6 yards per carry too but Auburn defense has made big strides this season with its new DC. The biggest factor in this game will be the struggling LSU offense and more specifically their offensive line. They really struggled to move the ball last week even against a weak miss state defense, only passing for 71 yards. Their offensive line is very banged up with 3 of the 5 starters questionable for this game. I expect them to rotate often like they have been causing issues in the backfield. Take Auburn as the home dog and the points and expect a close game here. LSU has not been a good road team for the last 3 years against the SEC they are 4-7.
Iowa -12.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Iowa lost last week to North Dakota State. An over-reaction would be saying this Iowa team is garbage and lost to a FCS team. In case you didn’t follow FCS football, let me give you some insight on this team. Since 2011, North Dakota State has won every national championship at the FCS level, that’s 5 straight years. They’ve been upsetting underprepared FBS teams all along the way. Iowa is a powerhouse team and it all starts with their amazing QB, CJ Beathard, who is easily top 5 college QBs and gets no recognition from the media. He was pretty banged up midway through the season last year and his performance dropped a bit, but hes still one of the best. They should have no problem moving the ball against a soft Rutgers defense. Their offense has consistently improved over the last 3 years and has been productive thus far, averaging 7 yards per play (Rk#11), 6.3 yards per rush (Rk#7), and 8.4 yards per pass (Rk#34) against FBS opponents. Beathard has thrown only 1 INT in the last 3 games. On the other side Rutgers comes in with a whole new coaching staff coming off a 4-8 season. Their offense has sputtered implementing its new spread attack averaging 4.9 yards per pass (Rk#118), and 3.9 yards per rush (Rk#81). Iowa’s defense returns 8 starters to a defense that ranked #18 in defensive pass efficiency allowed. CB Desmond King is one of the best in the country and won the Thorpe Award last year. I see no reason why Iowa should not cover this spread and think we are receiving some value since they lost to a ND State last week.
2 Team Parlay (-120): Nebraska ML (-288) + Ole Miss ML (-270). Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Nebraska wins this revenge game hands down. Last year despite dominating the game against northwestern they lost by 2. They controlled the clock and out possessed northwestern by almost double. This year, Nebraska is in its second year under head coach mike riley with 15 returning starters and is much improved. Northwestern has appeared to have taken a step backwards. Their defense looks nowhere nearly as aggressive and Clayton Thorson continues to struggle to connect with his receivers. Georgia has been squeaking by much inferior opponents with their struggling offense and even the best defenses are giving up points to this very potent ole miss offense. Their offensive line is a joke, struggling to give time to Eason even when they have max protection and are only being rushed by 3-4 guys. Georgia will not be able to keep up with Ole Miss and Ole Miss is 1-2 after facing some tough opponents. This is a rare 2 team ML parlay for me, you can also tease it and pretty much get the same value, this just worked out a little better for my book since Nebraska was at 8.5 now. Pickmonitor does not allow me to make parlay selections for their tracking purposes so I simply risked about 1.4 units per bet to win .5 unit on each bet but a parlay is a much smarter bet option for this scenario than my 2 separate bets.
Rosen injury 
determined to have a huge week soon
