Dapper Dan Picks - NCAAF '17 Season.

[Smutbucket]

Week 11 Full Card:
Duke -2 (-110) 2x
TCU +7.5 (-125)
Georgia -2 (-120)
Washington -6 (-110)
Indiana/Illinois under 49 (-110)
Lousiville -12 (-103)
Missouri -12.5 (-108)
Wake Forest +1 (-105)
Mississippi State ML (+435) .5x
Mississippi State +13.5 (-105)

[Smutbucket]

All the quick I action I jumped on early in week based on instinct and gut plays lose and all the games I added after careful inspection of card and rankings that are only released after Wednesday mid-week win. go figure. continue to lose the 2 unit bets all season long

Week 11: 5-5 -1.25 units
Season Results: 51-46 (53%) -2.04 units

[Smutbucket]

Week 12 WriteUps:
Wisconsin -7 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
I love this Wisconsin team and am tired of hearing how they haven’t played anyone. Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, and Purdue are all formidable BIG 10 opponents. A talking point on ESPN by Herbstreit one of their shittiest analysts repeats at every opportunity. The closest game they’ve had was against Purdue, where they only won by 8 despite a -2 turnover margin. They’ve dominated teams on both sides of the ball and there is no reason they don’t continue the trend this week. I am not buying the Michigan offensive resurgence chatter since Brandon Peters took over the starting role. Michigan has really just abused the last 3 teams at the line of scrimmage, rushing for almost 900 yards in it’s last 3 games. The defensive line rankings of their last 3 opponents would help you understand why, Rutgers 94th, Minnesota 100th and Maryland 103rd. This is a much different Wisconsin defense who will stack the box and force this QB to throw. He will be pressured, make mistakes and this Wisconsin defense will capitalize. Look for them to make a big statement as they have had an easy schedule but that does not mean they are not talented. This is a revenge game they’ve had circled all season; Chryst at Wiscosin is 4-1 ATS in revenge games. If you can buy the half point for -120.

Arizona Pk (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Arizona/Oregon Over 75 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I locked in Arizona earlier in the week before Herbert was cleared to play so you will probably get a better number than me, but I still like this pick regardless and love it if you’re getting 3, which is what I actually got with my personal bookie, but use pick monitor to officially track my record. The ‘over’ bet is a type of hedge as I think both teams will score at will and hopefully we get a break or two and can pull off the upset. This Arizona offense is impossible to contain and this is a good spot to back them coming off two ATS losses, one against USC where we should have covered but a couple bad breaks at the end of the game lead to more than one TD possession game, and last week against a team they had too large of a spread against. The odds makers are expecting lots of people to back Oregon now that Herbert is back which I believe is giving us some value as well.

Purdue +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Despite, Purdue’s starting QB Blough getting injured two weeks ago, I still like this pick for the glaring advantages Purdue has against this Iowa team. First off, a very capable Elijah Sindelar assumes the role of starter as he did last week and throughout the season they have been alternating reps. He is 56% on the season completing 117 of 210 passes averaging 6.3 yards per pass with 9 TDs and 6 INTs on the season; nothing great but at least he has experience. The biggest mismatch in this game will be on the line of scrimmage, where I’ve never seen such a large differential in favor of a TD underdog. On offense, Purdue outranks Iowa by 97 rankings in adjusted line yards, 90 ranks in opportunity rate, and 76 ranks in stuff rate. On defense, Purdue is ranked #1 in adjusted line yards, and outranks Iowa by 73 ranks, 94 in opportunity rate, 82 in power success rate, and 75 in stuff rate. None the less from these numbers we can deduce that Iowa should struggle to run the ball and Purdue should be able to run the ball quite effectively. Despite Iowa blowing out Purdue the last few years, I think Jeff Brohm’s new schemes will catch Iowa off guard as Purdue isn’t a team you really prep for and having come off a big upset victory and then a beat down by Wisconsin, I suspect them to be under-prepared.

West Virginia -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Texas has been a covering machine this season going 7-3 ATS, by playing good defense and sticking around close in games despite their 5-5 record. They do not match up well though against passing teams and this WVU team can pass the ball very effectively. They are ranked #21 in completion percentage, #11 in yards per pass, and pass the ball 54% of the time, ranking 25th. They are ranked 9th in offensive passing efficiency and are led by the dynamic Will Grier who continues to look to redeem himself after the PED scandal last year. I’ve watched him a lot and think he has some really good raw talent. I mentioned it last year in one of my write-ups in a Florida game that he is one of the most athletic QBs with very impressive combine numbers, which he led in a few categories back in his recruiting class. Texas’s secondary struggles ranking #75th in yards per pass attempt, #76th in completion percentage, and 62nd in defensive passing efficiency. Another area we have a significant advantage in this game that I was surprised to uncover was the TFL department. Texas is ranked 110th in allowing 7 TFLs per game on offense and 46th on defense achieving 6.5 TFL per game. WVU with their quick passing offense is non surprisingly ranked 13th in TFL’s allowed, but surprisingly on defense have been racking up the TFLs and are ranked 33rd averaging 7 per game, including 10.5 last week against Kansas State. The strength of this Texas team throughout the season has definitely been there defense, but they will be really tested this last month as they are dealing with some recent injuries and suspension of starting CB Holton Hill.

Arizona State -7 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Despite the inconsistencies of this Arizona State team, I like them being a TD favorite in this matchup. They have significant advantages in the FEI ratings on offense, easily outranking and Oregon State defense that is in the bottom 5% in the league according to the FEI. On offense, they are not much better ranking in the bottom 10%. Arizona State is a middle of the pack team on offense and defense ranking 43rd in OFEI and 55th in DFEI. On the offensive line we have more of the same, Oregon state ranking in the bottom 10% of all teams in almost ALL categories; and ASU remaining in the middle of the pack. Oregon State is very banged up on both sides of the ball and could be missing their leading defensive LB and tackler, Manase Hungalu who is listed as questionable.

Utah TT Over 14.5 (-115) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Talked a bit about this Utah team and backed them successfully early on the season. Then Huntley went down and I’ve been keeping my distance. Their offense has been struggling since his return, but still they are a fast paced offense and have only had 1 game where they scored less than 14 points and that was Huntley’s first game back and he threw 4 INTs. The new offense should catch Washington a bit off guard. Utah’s has been horrendous so hopefully it’s a blowout and we get a few garbage points.

BC/UConn Under 51.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
In case you were not aware, Boston College lost QB Anthony Brown last week, a key part to their offense. Senior Darius Wade steps in who has a long college career of being terrible. Connecticut also lost Bryan Sherrifs and David Pindell has been starting the last few weeks and there’s no doubt he will struggle against this tough BC defense. Boston College is notorious for run first, slow methodical conservative offenses under Scot Loeffler’s play calling. Expect it even more so as he looks to limit Wade’s reps and obvious lack of talent throwing the ball. Connecticut may not even score as Sherrifs was a dynamic playmaker and fought for every yard and accounted for most of the offense.

Florida -10.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Despite Florida who has been reeling as of lately, firing their head coach, and UAB winning 3 straight, and being 7-3 on the season; at the end of the day these are two highly mismatched teams. Man on man, Florida will athletically kick the crap out of every UAB player. This is a lot like the Missouri/Idaho game I selected earlier in the season and two weeks ago Tennessee vs Southern Miss (which I decided to lay off). As banged up as Tennessee, it didn’t matter, even their 3rd stringers severely outmatch southern miss’s 1st team. The stats for these two teams won’t tell you much, the only important one to notice is this. Florida Sagarin strength of schedule ranking: 10. UAB Sagarin strength of schedule ranking: 159. Florida will be looking to make a statement, and Randy Shannon is still one of the best defensive minds in the nation.


May add some later

[Smutbucket]

FREAKING BAD BEATS! .... BC under such a bad beat, and WVU no Grier.....could have been HUGE week but i'll settle for just a BIG week

Back in the black

Week 12 Results: 6-3 +2.72 units
Season Results: 57-49 (54%) +0.68 units

[Smutbucket]

Week 13 : Fridays Games
Miami -13 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
No reason to think Miami does not dominate this game. Both their defense and offense are peaking right now at the end of the season and have hit their stride. On offense, they will have a huge advantage on the line of scrimmage, as the Pittsburgh defensive line is one of the lowest ranked lines in the league. They are giving up almost 8 yards per pass and no reason Miami does not put up 30. The bigger mismatch will be Pittsburgh’s offense against Miami’s defense. Miami has a ranking of 16th in adjusted sack rate, and ranks 4th in TFLs averaging 9 per game. This is a major weakness of Pittsburgh as they are ranked 109th in adjusted sack rate on offense and are ranked 105th in TFL allowed. The FEI rankings agree, Miami has a differential advantage in every category on both sides of the ball by an average of almost 50 rankings. In last year’s matchup, where Miami had a significantly worse team and Pittsburgh had a better team, Miami still won by 23 points. No reason they don’t top that this week to close out the season undefeated.

Arkansas +9 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
You won’t find many numbers on the surface to defend this pick. But that’s because Arkansas had a key injury to Austin Allen and were breaking in a new freshman QB for half the season. Despite this they have some promising numbers on rushing the ball with an 8th ranking S&P rating and 17th rank adjusted line yards. They should be able to run the ball effectively on this Missouri defense that is ranked 87th in S&P and 123rd in IsoPPP, constantly giving up the big plays. This is also a trend for the defense giving up the big pass plays as they are ranked 97th in isoPPP. Allen struggles against a pass rush but this Missouri defense is ranked 90th in adjusted sack rate. Their defensive secondary is allowing a high completion % of 60%, and have the 119th ranked passes deflected to incompletion %. Granted Arkansas’s defensive secondary numbers are almost as bad (except 36th in PD to INC %), it’s come against a much harder schedule. Arkansas SOS ranking is 10th while Missouri’s is 68th. Missouri is getting overvalued as they have won 5 straight, but a closer look at those opponents will show you that none of those opponents had over 4 wins on the season. Take Arkansas and the points.

USF +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points for a rivalry game where USF pros mismatch UCF’s cons. It’s no secret, USF’s bread and butter is their run game; which they do quite successfully (ranking #22 in yards per rush). UCF rush defense has been an issue all season. Their 54th ranking opponent yards per rush is nothing impressive and when you closely examine each game, it’s even more troublesome. The stats are inflated against their weak schedule opponents (like Austin Peay), and the fact they gave up 1.14 yards per rush against Maryland team when their starting QB got hurt and a confused backup came in the game. The last 3 games they have gave up 200 rushing yards per game and well over 5 yards per carry. They struggle even more against QB’s that can run the ball and the read-option effectively, which USF can do very well. Flowers at times this season has struggled under pressure with a 91st ranking adjusted sack rate. But this UCF defensive line has been ineffectual at generating any type of pass rush, ranking 111th in adjusted sack rate. On defense, USF is the more complete team ranking 12th in opponents yards per rush at 3.3. They are holding teams to 6.3 yards per pass attempt and #8th in opponent’s completion percentage. They are also great at rushing the pass with a 8.59 sack% ranking #14th. We also have a strong edge in the field goal kicking game as UCF’s has been way less effective than USF. Both these teams have had the same cupcake schedule so this will be each of their toughest opponents to date with all the pressure on UCF to deliver and hold up their undefeated season.

Texas Tech +7.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
As I discussed last week this Texas secondary is depleted and awful. There is no doubt in my mind West Virginia would have dominated that game if it were not for Will Grier’s early injury, just another bad beat to add to the long list in my gambling career. (I’m working on finding a shaman to undo the hex) This Texas Tech, pass happy offense is just the type that should give Texas struggles and were getting a ton of value due to Texas’s fortunate win and Texas Tech’s seemingly beatdown from TCU last week. Despite only putting up 3 points last week against TCU, they outgained TCU and just had some untimely turnovers. This Texas secondary is nowhere near the caliber of TCU’s and this short pass, highly efficient (ranked #5 in completion % and 12th in passing efficiency) will be a huge mismatch for this Texas team to defend who ranks 80th in opponents completion % and 62nd in defensive passing efficiency. To add to Texas’s offensive woes their leading WR, Collin Johnson came down with an illness and is questionable for this matchup. Let’s take Texas Tech with the points. I actually got +10 with my local book last night, I waited to lock in at pick monitor because it was at 9.5, the drop to 7.5 doesn’t concern me and will still lock it in at that number.

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday Results: 3-1 +1.93 units
Season Results: 60-50 (55%) +2.61 units

Week 13 Additions: (may add one later today)
Indiana/Purdue Under 52 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Both teams should be missing their preferred QBs. For Indiana, Ramsey has missed the last three games and Lagow is now taking all the snaps but is much more one dimensional with no mobile qualities what so ever. For Purdue, Blough got injured 3 weeks ago and this will be Sindelar’s 3rd game being the sole starter. This will be his toughest defense test to date and he had struggled heavily in some of the split snaps he had against tougher defenses earlier in the season. Both teams defenses significantly outrank their opponents offenses in almost every FEI efficiency category. Purdue has a particularly significant advantage at the line of scrimmage outranking this awful Indiana offensive line in adjusted line yards by almost 100 ranks. Despite Indiana typically having a fast pace of play, I think with Laglow in their they will do their best to limit Purdue’s possessions and rely on their defense to win the game which has been excellent. They are ranked #22 in both rushing and passing S&P and can really bring the pressure when their opponents are behind the chains, ranking 1st in sack rate on passing downs. This game should stay well under the total and I am not buying the rising line movement.

Auburn +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
If you’ve been following my picks and analysis all season, you would have probably guessed I was going to be on this pick. Alabama is a bit overvalued from last season still and they have been coasting on a cupcake schedule. After watching Stidham in the Clemson game handle pressure, I was a little concerned about Auburn’s offense. But, he has improved well over the course of the season; right on par with Chip Lindsey’s history of developing elite QB’s. At home getting 4.5 points, I’ll take the superior defense all day, and due to Alabama’s injuries this Auburn defense is definitely superior.

Vanderbilt +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Tennessee has had some significant injuries on their offensive line over the last few games and it has had a very detrimental effect to their offense which was already struggling. They have been giving up a ton of TFLs, sacks, and pressure to their two young backup freshman QBs who are looking to fill the role of injured starter Dormandy. Although Vanderbilt’s defense has definitely regressed this year it’s not typical of a Derek Mason defense and it has been against a very tough schedule. Mason is great at bringing pressure and forcing errant passes which he will surely bring against this known struggling offensive line. Although Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled; they have an experienced group of seniors who will look to leave it all on the field as this will be their last game. Last year, Vanderbilt upset a much better Tennessee team by 9 points on the last game of the season as well.

Arizona -1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Last week I walked into a trap locking in Arizona before Herbert was declared out, but there’s no reason this offense doesn’t explode this week. Arizona of course is ranked #1 in yards per rush, and #2 in rushing isoPPP (despite Tate not playing the first few games). This will be a recipe for disaster against an Arizona State defense that’s ranked 103rd in yards per rush allowed and 115th in rushing isoPPP. Their corners are small that Arizona’s big receivers should exploit as well if they try to stack the box. Although Arizona’s defense has been shaky lately but they are good at bringing pressure from their LBs and that is something Manny Wilkins has struggled with ranked 108th in opponents adjusted sack rate. Last year Arizona won in a blowout and this year should be one too.

Notre Dame ML (-145) Risking 1.45 units to win 1 units
Notre Dame -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Notre Dame is obviously a run first team and this Stanford run defense is really struggling this season. It’s gone a bit unnoticed as they play in the pass happy PAC 12. According to adjusted line yards they are ranked 96th, 111th in opportunity rate, and 110th in stuff rating. Something this Notre Dame offensive line ranks, 4th, 12th, and 27th in the same categories and should fully exploit. Their defensive rushing S&P rating is 76th and 106th in success rate. Another category this Notre Dame offense thrives at ranking 3rd in rushing S&P and 23rd in success rate. Notre Dame has rushed for over 300 yards 7 times against much inferior rushing defense and they should do so again. Stanford’s offense relies on Bryce Love and the big play as they continue to shuffle QBs, looking for a consistent reliable thrower. Their offensive line isn’t great; it’s just all Love doing the work. Their offensive line ranking is 64th in adjusted line yards and bottom to middle of the pack in most categories. But their rushing isoPPP (measure of explosiveness) is ranked #1, which is all Bryce Love. This Notre Dame defense is very stout and does not give up the big run play, ranking 31st in rushing IsoPPP. They are ranked in the top15 of most S&P ratings and top 25 of most FEI efficiency ratings, far out ranking Stanford’s mediocre defense. If Bryce Love gets hampered again by injury I have no doubt we win this but I like Notre Dame to win outright regardless. I am doing the ML and spread because of pickmonitor but my regular bookie I put just a 2 unit bet on the spread.

Texas AM +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Texas A&M is a much more complete offense since Nick Starkel returned to the starting QB role. The weapons he has around him of offense doesn’t force a lot of pressure on him and he can lead this team to a victory with modest numbers and not giving up turnovers which he has done well with only 2 turnovers in 5 games and 8 TDs. With a few key defensive players for LSU listed as questionable like Arden Key and Donnie Alexander, I think we should be able to put up some points. Etling may even sit out under concussion protocol and I can only imagine how bad someone must be to be beat out by Etling. Etling and this LSU offense relies on lots of pre-snap movement under new OC Matt Canada who I love, but it needs to get push at the line in order to be successful. Texas AM defensive line is one of the best in the nation ranking 32nd in adjusted line yards and 4th in sack rate, which has been Etling and this offenses Achilles heel; ranking #112th in QB sack %. I think what’s giving us so much more value in this game is the fact that LSU has dominated this series the last 5 years winning and covering. They have pounded them on the ground every year but Texas AM has a good enough line and will stack the box and force Etling to beat them through the air. I think this one is much closer than the 10 point spread.

[Smutbucket]

Week 13 :
Miami -13 (-107) L
Arkansas +9 (-108) W
USF +11 (-110) W
Texas Tech +7.5 (-105) W
Indiana/Purdue Under 52 (-110)
Auburn +4.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt +1 (-110)
Arizona -1.5 (-110)
Notre Dame -2 (-110)
Notre Dame ML (-145)
Texas AM +10 (-110)

[Smutbucket]

There’s only one of two explanations for this madness in Arizona . Rodriguez is Dawkins’s gay lover or Rodriguez decided to bet the farm on Arizona State and throw the game .

[Smutbucket]

Week 13
(5-6) -1.92 units

Season Results:
Season Results: 62-55 (53%) -1.24 units



No writeups this week fellas sorry. Probably a late add waiting on some numbers


NCAAF Week 14:
Massachusetts -1.5 (-102) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
Auburn/UGA Under 47.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin ML (+210) Risking 1 unit to win 2.1 units
Wisconsin +5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Been so busy with work. Will resume write-ups for bowling season but have one I really like for tomorrow:

12/9/17
Army/Navy Over 45.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Sorry fellas for the losing season but my bowls have been historically profitable and no reason we can't end the season in the black after a long roller-coaster of ups and downs

Season Results: 63-60 (51%) -5.41 units

Bowls:

Oregon -7 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

This is a game you need to do a little extra digging into the stats to see the value in a play on Oregon. Despite no eye-popping advantage for the Oregon ducks on paper, a big reason is because Justin Herbert missed 5 games and a few bad backups took over the reins for a bit while he was out. During that period their offense was anemic, scoring 10, 7, 14, 34 (1 defensive), and 3 points in those 5 games. With Herbert, they are averaging 48 points per game (52 if you count the 77 they put up against their FCS opponent) and are a much more explosive offense. More surprising is the way their defense has stepped up all season and improved tremendously from the Oregon standard holding opponents to 13 points less per game from last year, and holding them to only 5.0 yards per play (rk #30) a 1.5 yard improvement from last year. The other big reason to take Oregon in this match-up is the SOS mismatch. If you follow my posts you know I am not a big fan of the PAC 12 but even the PAC’s schedules are much more difficult than this Boise State’s team. Boise State has racked up a 10 win season but against pathetic competition with their toughest game against Virginia. Oregon wins big.

[Smutbucket]

Time to dig ourselves out of the hole and finish the year in the black.

Bowls:

Utah -6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Utah started off the season firing under new OC, Troy Taylor and dual-threat young new starting QB, Tyler Huntley. Their offense was explosive, extremely efficient, and their defense was stout as usual under Kyle Whittingham; winning their first four games. But then Huntley went down and their season kind of spiraled out of control. This was when they faced their meat of their schedule and ended up losing 6 of their last 8 games. Despite not having Huntley, and a struggling Troy Williams, they managed to keep games close between tough opponents like Stanford and USC. Then Huntley returned and their offense took a turn for the worse. Mainly with unfortunate turnovers including 7 in the Washington State game and 4 in the Arizona State game. Their defense gave up a lot more points than usual for this team because of their struggling offense and turnovers that left them in precarious situations. Their rushing defense struggled a little against excellent running teams like Bryce Love and Stanford but overall had a decent season ranking #57 in yards per rush. But running the ball is not this West Virginia teams forte ranking 69th in yards per rush and running only 48% of the time (ranking 94th) . West Virginia relies on its passing game and will be without starting QB, Will Grier. Chris Chugunov will be starting his 2nd game against a defense that is really great at disguising coverage’s and defending the pass. This year they don’t beat you by blitzing or attacking QB’s, they simply drop into coverage and defend the pass extremely well. They are ranked #17th in opponent yards per pass, and 29th in defensive passing efficiency ratings. They are ranked 21st in defensive passing S&P ratings and keep everything in front of them, ranking #14th in PassingIsoPPP. Something this West Virginia offense relies on but will be especially difficult without Grier. Justin Crawford, West Virginia’s 1000+ yard leading rusher will also be sitting out for this game. Another edge we have in this game is the TOP battle. Utah likes to control the clock and grind out games ranking 24# in TOP%, while West Virginia relies at the big play hurry up offense, ranking 103rd in TOP%. This will spell trouble for their already struggling defense if their new offensive leaders don’t produce quickly. Also Whittingham is a great Bowl prepper as you know from his upsets at Bama and 5-3 ATS record. While Holgerson is a measly 1-4 ATS in his last 5 bowl games with west virgina.



Duke -5.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units

I know I’ve lost quite a few units backing this Duke team this season but I see value in betting them here. They have had a lot of injuries on defense (which are all healthy now) and have been under-performing against tougher competition. Their offense, which showed promise early on the season putting up 41 against Northwestern and 34 against Baylor struggled through the middle stretch of their schedule but began to show signs of life again the last two games putting up 43 against Georgia Tech and 31 against Wake Forest. Their defense has always been their strength this season but struggled to stay in games when their offense could not stay on the field. Their secondary, although susceptible to the occasional big play, is one of the best in tight coverage, exemplified by their 42.7% passes deflected to incompletion rate (ranked 5th) , their 4th ranking in defensive opponents completion percentage at 49%, and 25th ranking in defensive passing efficiency. Northern Illinois’s offense is not a big play threat ranking 96th in PassingIsoPPP and 115th in overall explosiveness. Their stats, although padded and impressive in most categories should be taken with a grain of salt as they have faced the 92nd worst strength of schedule being a MAC team. I think we win this one with ease and this Duke team plays at the caliber it’s capable of which is much better than its stats and records appear.



Iowa ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units

The limitations of Darius Wade running this Boston College offense has not been exposed yet since their last two games they played without Anthony Brown were against UCONN and Syracuse, who Boston College was able to run at will against their soft front’s averaging over 6 yards per carry. Although this Iowa front 7 has not been as stout as it has been in the past, Kirk Ferentz is the type to stack the box, matchup his corners, stuff the run, and force Darius Wade to throw on them, which he will struggle to do. Iowa’s corners should be able to man-up and jam Boston College’s receivers and not worry about a deep threat. Their DB’s and lineman have had an extraordinarily high number of passes broken up with a 46% broken up pass to incompletion rate and 70 total broken up passes on the season, averaging almost 6 per game and 17 in their last two games. Iowa’s offense has struggled this season against teams that are able to generate pressure and sacks, but uncharacteristically of past Boston College teams, this defense has not been successful thus far in that department this season. Their sack rate on standard downs is ranked 87th and ranked 90th in passing downs. This should be a low scoring affair with a lean on the under but I am more confident in Iowa to win outright.



Missouri -2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

I’ve already talked a lot about the weakness of this Texas secondary and this just so happens to play into the strength of this Missouri offense. Not to mention, the majority of Texas’s shitty secondary (and top defensive tacklers) are questionable or out for this game and I can only imagine how much worse their backups are. Texas also has 5 offensive linemen that are out/questionable for this game and a slew of other starters on their injury report. The only reason this is not a two unit play is because the departure of Heupel to UCF but that’s not a large concern as Heupel has installed his offense and mainly sets the formations and alignments, but most of the decision-making and play-calling gets decided by Drew Lock on the fly based on what the defense is showing him.

[Smutbucket]

Bowls To Date: 3-2 +0.87
Season YTD: 66-62 (52%) -4.54 units


Virginia -1 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

We’re getting a lot of value in this Virginia game because Virginia lost 5 of its last 6 games after a hot start and went 2-4 ATS. This was against a very tough ACC stretch of opponents, and much more difficult than anything Navy has played. Navy went on a slide too winning 1 of their last 7 but against a much weaker SOS. Virginia struggled down the stretch generating a run game and handling pressure for Benkert. He took 13 sacks in his last 3 games. This shouldn’t be an issue though against a very soft navy front 7 (compared to the SEC/ACC), who ranks 99th in sack %, averaging 4.81%. Their rushing defense gives up a poor 4.6 yards per rush (ranked 79th) and their defensive secondary numbers are even worse, which is where this Virginia’s offense excels. Virginia’s 1 victory in its last 5 games was against Georgia tech’s option offense and Bronco Mendenhall has a winning history defending the option at BYU, playing G. tech twice in ’12-’13 and beating them both years and easily covering the spread. Another factor giving us value is the fact that Navy and his head coach are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games, but was with a much better Navy team than this year. He’s no Kyle Whittingham of Bowl preparations; he was 1-3 ATS with navy before the last 4. Virginia wins this win outright.



Virginia Tech +6 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

You’ll notice me usually siding with a stronger defense and getting +4 or more points and this is the case in this matchup. Virginia Techs defense is one of the best in the nation, by the advanced numbers, with its one flaw being the big play, ranking 114th in IsoPPP. This is the biggest concern for this game as Oklahoma State’s offense is ranked 5th in IsoPPP. But that’s against Big 12 defenses that are practically nonexistent. Oklahoma State’s defense gives up the big play often as well ranked 100th in IsoPPP. The real strength of this Virginia Tech defense that I think will catch Oklahoma State off guard is their secondary. They are ranked 1st in opponents completion %, holding opponents to only 46 completion %. They are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency passer rating. Against the run, they are just as strong; holding opponents to 3.4 yards per carry (ranking 16th) , something Oklahoma State uses to open up their passing game but struggles at against tougher competition. Their stuff rate and power success rate both rank within the top 5 in the nation, which is a problem for Oklahoma State’s offense who ranks in the bottom 20% of the league. High winds and rain could play to our advantage in this game as well. Overall, I think we keep this one close as long as we don’t give up too many big plays.



MSU/Wash State Under 47 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

This was one that at first you wouldn’t expect but a close examination of the numbers gives us strong value on this under. Both teams FEI rankings are strongly favored towards both defenses, outranking their offensive counterparts by 50+ ranks in every category. The S&P ratings agree as although Washington state is an extremely efficient defense it has given up it’s share of big plays but something this Michigan State offense has very little capability of doing. Both teams should struggle to run the ball, as MSU’s S&P rushing rating put them in the top 5, and Washington state’s offense is middle of the pack against PAC 12 defenses. Both teams are 5-7 in favor of unders on the season, and more surprisingly both teams rank towards the bottom of the league in adjusted pace of play, with Washing State ranking 116th and MSU ranking 103rd. Both teams love controlling the clock and winning the TOP% battle, MSU ranking 3rd and WSU ranking 11th. Despite the most likely ideal conditions in San Diego, California we still see value in the under with these numbers.

[Smutbucket]

had MSU too then switched to under

Sorry fellas... A couple 2 unit plays in the next few days....lets see if we can earn it back

Wake Forest -3 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Wake Forest/Texas AM Over 65.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

I really love watching this Wake Forest team and the QB John Wolford has evolved into. A year ago I would have never expected him to be this good but that’s the beauty of college football. What he lacks in size and arm strength he makes up with effort and determination. He is really dialed in this season with his receivers, ranking 2nd place in S&P passer ratings. They should take advantage of this soft coverage Texas A&M defense. Carney should be back after missing a few games which should add another dimension to this offense as he is an explosive runner. Nick Starkel is back for Texas A&M on offense but looks like a freshman with little experience, giving up 4 INTs in his last two games. Hopefully he gives up one for a pick 6 but he should have a much easier time against this weak Wake Forest secondary. He should have plenty of time to make decisions as wake forest struggles at bringing a pass rush, ranking 103rd in the nation. Both teams have excellent field goal kickers hitting over 84%. Both teams are amongst the top of adjusted pace of play rates and the bottom of TOP %. This will be an exciting game to start off the day and expect the veteran to pull out the win in a shootout that may go to OT.

[Smutbucket]

Bowl Additions for tonight:

USC TT Under 29 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Ohio State -9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Ohio State should dominate the LOS in this game. They rank in the top 5 of rushing S&P and rushing success rates on both sides of the ball a feat seldom accomplished by any team. They are ranked 1st in adjusted line yards and opportunity rate on defense which will be nothing like this USC team has faced thus far this season. On offense they are ranked 8th in adjusted line yards and 3rd in opportunity rate, and should have a field day against a USC's defensive line that is ranked 92nd in adjusted line yards and the bottom 20% of most defensive line statistics. I love taking BIG 10 teams against the PAC 12 and this is one of my favorites of the bowl season. Who has USC played? Ranked 58th in sagarin ratings against an overrated PAC 12.

[Smutbucket]

Season YTD: 69-65 (51%) -4.72 units



Iowa State +4 (-105) Risking 2.1 units to win 2 units

Iowa State edges out Memphis in most statistical categories even though they have played a much more difficult schedule to date, a 62 differential according to sagarin rankings. Defensively, they are the much stronger team than Memphis who is in the bottom 20% of the league, despite its cupcake American conference schedule. Iowa State’s defensive numbers are impressive considering they play in the BIG 12. They’re ranked 27th in yards per rush, and 65th in yards per pass. They are relatively good at defending against the big explosive plays, (ranking 43rd) that Memphis relies on and again they are used to it having played against Oklahoma, WVU and Oklahoma state. Memphis is 2nd in explosiveness but that’s not saying much when your toughest opponents are UCF, UCLA and SMU? We also have a strong edge in the kicking game with a much higher FG % on the year. Another solid edge is how much more disciplined this Iowa state team is, ranking #14th in penalties per play. Memphis is ranked #126 th in penalties per play and 128th in penalties per game. High winds and cold temperatures should also slow this Memphis passing attack. All these factors combined lead us to taking a shot at another 2 unit play, despite our poor record hitting 2 unit plays this season.

Penn State -2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

No write-up. You know how I feel about B10 vs PAC12.

Wisconsin/Miami Under 44.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units

Not hard to justify this pick. Just look at the defensive statistics for both of these teams. Wisconsin defense ranks in the top 5 of opponents yards per rush, opponents yards per pass, sack %, opponents completion %, opponents 3rd down %, overall havoc rate, LB/DB havoc rate, PD to incompletions, and efficiency. That’s just ridiculous. Miami is also missing 2 of its top receivers so its offense should sputter like it has against tougher competition. This game is in Miami so it will be loud for this Wisconsin offense. They have faced few defenses as tough as this Miami’s front and they will surely be tested. Miami is relentless at bringing pressure, ranking 4th in sack rate and 19th in adjusted sack rate. Something Wisconsin has struggled with ranking 78th in sack rate and 80th in adjusted sack rate. Miami’s defense is a top 20 defense in most FEI and S&P categories. I expect Wisconsin’s offense to move slowly and methodically and take their time as they try to rely on their defense to win this game, judging by their 129th ranked pace of play. Take the under despite the low number.

[Hman]

GL Dan

[Smutbucket]

Season YTD: 71-66 (52%) -2.75 units

Today’s the Day of Reckoning Fellas. Despite a heavy slide towards the end of the season including the worst day in gambling I’ve ever had with 0 wins; ending the season in the black is well within our sights. Let’s get it.

Georgia -2 (-105) Risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
Defense. Defense. Defense. I love how we keep hearing non-stop hype about one of the most efficient offenses in history, and greatest college quarterbacks and Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. I rarely watch Sportscenter but am still inundated with the hype, no matter which ABC affiliate you pass by. Sure he’s talented but they neglect to remind or take into factor how terrible the BIG 12 defenses and their outside conference games were. Here are the rankings of some of their opponents in defensive yards per play, UTEP 105th, Tulane #125th, Baylor #114th, Kansas State #84th, Texas Tech #82nd, Oklahoma State 53rd, WVU #96th, Kansas #120th in which most of those games they padded their stats averaging well over 10 yards per play. Against their “best” BIG 12 opponents they averaged a much more modest 7.5 yards per play, and included Texas (Rk 32nd), Iowa State (Rk 42nd) and TCU (Rk 35th). Against Ohio State they were held to 6.8 yards per play, but Ohio States offense just shit the bed in their 2nd game of the season, averaging 5 yards per play which led to that victory. Oklahoma’s defense although played well in that 2nd game of the season against OSU (or OSU offense played terrible) , has proven to be pretty bad throughout the rest of the season, ranking #65th in yards per play allowed, 61st in FEI ratings, and 95th in S&P ratings. Their defensive havoc ratings and PD to INC rate are laughable in the bottom 10% of the league. In case you were not aware this UGA defense is elite. They are ranked in the top 5 of almost all FEI ratings, top 10 in all S&P ratings, and ranked 6th in opponents yards per play. Their secondary is especially good, ranked 1st in opponent yards per pass, #13th in opponents completion %. Their offense should have no problem gouging this Oklahoma front that is ranked 87th in adjusted line yards, and bottom of most other defensive line statistics. Georgia’s should easily rush for 5+ yards per carry like most of Oklahoma’s opponents as they are ranked 2nd in adjusted line yards and 8th in yards per rush. Their stable of running backs are explosive, ranking 7th in Rushing ISO PPP rankings, which should spell trouble for Oklahoma’s defense who gives up plenty of big plays, ranking 108th in IsoPPP and 62nd in rushingISO PPP. We also have a special teams edge as Georgia is ranked #1 and Oklahoma is ranked 56th. We are firing away on our 2nd 2 unit pick of the bowl season with the stronger defense.


Auburn -11.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 to win 1 units
I am a UCF alumnus, and I have been strongly recommending all my fellow alumni who are making the trip to Atlanta to strongly reconsider. I was leaning UCF before game time but the numbers have really shown a much stronger edge. This game will be another one that is largerly determined at the LOS. Auburn ranks 10th in adjusted line yards and top 25 of most offensive line statistics except against the pass rush (which UCF has not been able to generate) . UCF is outranked by an average of a 50 differential in most of these statistics including adjusted line yards ranking 70th. On the defensive line for Auburn its more of the same, ranking 10th in adjusted line yards and outranking UCF in most categories who is ranked a stunningly bad 98th in adjusted line yards. This differentials are even more compelling when you take into the fact the Sagarin SOS differential, which Auburn ranks 4th and UCF ranks 83rd playing in the American Conference. Sure UCF offense ranks in the top 10 of most FEI rankings, but again, it’s the American conference. From the few games I’ve watched UCF, I’ve noticed Milton although elusive and quick on his feet, struggles with pressure. This auburn defense is one of the best at bringing pressure ranking 16th in adjusted sack rate. Auburn wins this one easily and a strong lean on UCF team total under but think I may lay off. I actually got for -10 at -120 at my book last night.

No Writeups for these guys sorry. Hangover, but I looked into them a lot last night before I started drinking.

Alabama ML (-158) Risking 1.58 units to win 1 units

South Carolina +8.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units


Happy New Year.

[Smutbucket]

1/1/18 Results: 3-1 +2.95 units

2018 Season FINAL YTD: 74-67 (52%) + 0.2 units

no play on final, too close to call. taking my +0.2 units on the season and going home. despite the minimal profits, still see it as a success as after having the worst saturday in my gambling career (0-6 -7 units), and going on a heavy slide after that, we were still able to turn things around, keep emotions in check, and end the season in the black.

Thats 4 of the last 6 seasons in the black,
and an overall college football handicapping record of: 463-429 (52%) +27.74 units.

Next season we are due for another 58%+ kickass season, please follow along.

[Smutbucket]

Lol, Hell Ya! All is well, had a rough baseball season but since then Ive been doing pretty well as I found my new gambling niche for the offseason, cryptocurrency ....haha, pretty much heavily into ETHEREUM, and bought in around 150-200, as its my bread and butter but occasionally dabble in some new start up smaller ICOs for a bigger risk/bigger reward but ETH is a workhorse and will steadily climb for the foreseeable future....if anyone fux around with crypto let me know!

I haven't got too deep into the Saturday matches yet, but already have like 5-6 plays for thursdays and fridays games, which is a lot, lol....Definately pumped and will be heavily studying all season as I don't have as much on my plate this year as years past..... LETS GET IT BROTHER~!

Hope everyone else on the forums is cashing in big on ethereum. 21,000 + Erc20 tokens and counting. easily be 3x-5x by years end